Climate studies in India & expectations from AIM › aim › aim_workshop › aimws...expectations...

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Climate studies in India & expectations from AIM:Research topics and future collaboration

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Presented at 15th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, February 20-22, 2010


Agenda

1. New Scenarios Development

2. Component Models (& Integration)

3. Model Applications

4. Policy Assessment

5. Research Cooperation

6. Dissemination


New Scenarios Development


Alternate Development Perspectives

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas

Concentration Stabilization

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas

Concentration Stabilization

Conventional Climate Centric Paradigm

Sustainable Development and Climate Paradigm

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability

National Socio-economic

Objectives and Targets

Global Climate Change


TargetsInterventionsDriversAim

Back-casting

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co -benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co -benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision


• Focus on:– Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans/policies/processes– Behavioral Changes, Innovations, Co-benefits and Co-operation– Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins

• Sustaining Capital Stocks– Natural, Man-made, Human & Social

• Use Systems Approach for Analysis– Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment

• Interventions to influence Drivers of Change– Assess and influence Processes– Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change)

• Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences– Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices

LCS Scenarios with Sustainability


Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

Stabilization Scenarios with Global Targets

Baseline Paradigm

StabilizationTargets

Scenarios

Geography Level

2.68.0 6.0 Radiative Forcing Target W/m2

Global Regional National

4.5 2.66.0 5.0 4.5

Global Global Regional NationalGlobalLocal Local

Conventional Sustainability

Δt 4 to 6OC Δt 3 to 5OC

Δt 3OC

Δt 2OC


(1) Setting Framework

(3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions

(4) Collection of low carbon measures

(2) Description of socio-economic assumptions

(6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year

(5) Setting introduction of measures in target year

(7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations

Local Scenario Development (ExSS )


1. IPCC New Scenarios Process

2. Asia Modeling Forum

3. LCS Asia Project

4. Indian National Scenario Exercises

5. City Level Scenarios

6. Sector Scenarios

7. Scenario Database

Scenarios: Research Cooperation


Component Models (& Integration)


Integrated Modeling Framework

DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

elA

IM Strategic D

atabase(SD

B)

Integrated Modelling FrameworkDATABASES

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

elA

IM Strategic D

atabase(SD

B)

DATABASESSocio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM ExSS

AIM

End

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

(SDB

)(Strategic D

atabase)

Integrated Modeling Framework


Production sector

Final demandsector

Production factormarket

Produced goodsmarket

Endowment

Intermediate demand

Final demand

OutputValue added

Env

ironm

ent

Pollution, pressure, preservation

Input from environmentFeedback from environment

Input from environmentFeedback from environment

Pollution, pressure, preservation

AIM CGE Model


Extended Snapshot Tool

Macro-economy and Industry Module

Labor Module

Population and Household Number Module

Time-use and Consumption Module

Transport Module

Commercial Building Module

Energy Demand & GHG Emissions Module GHG emissions

Labor demand

Wage

Number of workers

Average working time

PopulationPrivate consumption

Number of household

Output

Passenger and freight transport demand

Floor area of commercial buildings

Energy demand

Income

•Export•Import ratio

•Commuting OD •Labor participation ratio•Demographic composition•Average number of family occupants

•Breakdown of consumption

•Floor area per output

•Population distribution•Trip per parson•Transport distance•Modal share

•Energy service demand generation unit•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor

•Government expenditure•Labor productivity

Exogenous variables and parameters

Main endogenous variablesModule

InputFlow of endogenous variables


1. Global Integrated Assessment Model

2. Regional Integrated Assessment Model

3. Local Mitigation Models

4. Sector Mitigation Models

5. Impact & Adaptation Data & Models

6. Climate Data Monitoring & Modeling

Models Development & Training


Model Applications:• Geography

Global, Regional, National, Local (City)

• Sector Transport, Power, Industries, Residential,

Agriculture


Global & National Analysis: GCAM & AIM/CGE

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mto

e

Base Case Scenario: INDIA

OilGas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

BaU

INDIA: Carbon Emissions

GDP Loss for India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

%

450 ppmv (2 deg C)

550 ppmv (3 deg C)


National Analysis: Bottom-up

From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

e

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

Energy

Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population

Carbon Emissions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Milli

on T

on C

O2


Mitigation Options AssessmentConventional Approach: transition with conventional path and carbon price• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push• Top-down/Supply-side actions

Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio

Technology Co-operation Areas• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/CCS

Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Other

CCS

Device EfficiencyNuclear

Renewable

Fossil Switch

Emissions (for 2O Target)

Baseline Emissions

Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

CCSTransport Reduced ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsDevice Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Building

Fossil Switch

Emissions (for 2O Target)

Carbon Price ($) 15 55 100 11728


Policy Assessment, Research Cooperation &

Dissemination


8 National Missions:1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017)

2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012)

3. Sustainable habitat

4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement)

5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system

6. A “Green India” (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%)

7. Sustainable agriculture

8. Strategic knowledge for climate change

INDIA: National Climate Change Action Plan


AMC (Old

boundary)

AMC (New

boundary)

Ahmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil

10.2

61.1

20.4

8.6

15.4

6.32.44.33.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCSG

HG

Em

issi

ons/

redu

ctio

ns (m

t-C

02)

Transport EfficiencyIndustry EfficiencyBuilding EfficiencyFuel Switch

Energy Service demand

Coal + CCS

Emissions

Mitigation Contributions

67%

Passenger Transport Sector

02468

10121416

Inde

x 20

05 =

1

Passenger Demand

Energy Demand

GHG Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS

Mt C

O2

Freight TransportPassenger TransportIndustryCommercialResidential

Sustainable Low Carbon Cities: Ahmedabad


Sustainable Low Carbon Transport• Sustainable modal shift

• Efficient logistics

• Infrastructures investments

• Associated development

Technologies for Train Corridors


Renewable Energy ScenariosAdditional Renewable Capacity in Low Carbon

Scenario over the Base Case

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2020 2030 2040 2050

Incr

ease

ove

r B

ase

Cas

e (M

toe)

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Bio-energy


• Low carbon Infrastructure Development & Investments• Freight Corridors ( Delhi Mumbai – JBIC)• Inter City Movements ( Delhi Metro – JBIC)• Eco Towns ( Dahej - JICA)

• Water Energy Climate Change Nexus• Scenario development at local level

• Extension of Ahmedabad LCS Analysis to other cities in India

• Sectoral Focus –Energy (Renewable, Clean Power, Nuclear)– Intra City Transport ( Metro, BRTS)– Intra City Transport ( Freight Corridors, Bullet Trains)–Urban architecture ( City planning, use of Information

Technology)

Key Policy Assessment Areas


Research Cooperation & Dissemination

Thank you

1. IPCC New Scenario & AR5

2. Low Carbon Asia Project

3. LCS-RNet

4. Asia Modeling Forum Exercises

5. Coordinated Publications

6. Dissemination Strategy (Web, Print, Events)

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Climate studies in India & expectations from AIM › aim › aim_workshop › aimws...expectations...

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