Climate � the new biological control agent?

Nikki Sims

SupervisorsDr Yvonne BuckleyProf Myron Zalucki

Dr Adele Reid

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Photo by Mic Julien

Salvinia before biological control

Photo by Mic Julien

Salvinia after biological control

Cactoblastis cactorum

Prickly PearPhotos by J.R. Hosking

Phyllostica concava

Evaluation!

Female flowers

Male flowers

Groundsel BushBaccharis halimifolia (Asteraceae)

Groundsel Bush Seeds

Nudgee �Brisbane

Before Control

Nudgee �Brisbane

After Spraying

Same place today

Ashgrove � Brisbane Before Control

Ashgrove � Brisbane After Bulldozing

Same place today

Oidaematophorus balanotesPhoto by Niels Hintzen

Photo by Niels Hintzen

Megacyllene mellyi

Rhopalomyia californica Trirhabda baccharidis

Aristotelia ivae

Photo by Drees

Photo by SangMi Lee

Photo by www.scielo.br

Biological control agents on

Groundsel Bush

Was the biological control program successful?

Where it is located?

Seasonal Phenology

Long-term variation in site suitability

Where it is located?

Seasonal Phenology

Long-term variation in site suitability

Where it is located?

Seasonal Phenology

Long-term variation in site suitability

Collection records in North America

Predicted range in North America

Model VerificationIteratively adjust parameters until they fit known distribution

Model ValidationKnown and predicted distribution in New Zealand

Model ValidationKnown and predicted distribution in Europe

Model PredictionPredicted distribution in Australia

Model PredictionKnown and predicted distribution in Australia

Verify!

Validate!

Test!

CLIMEX � Compare Years Output

Gayndah

CLIMEX � Compare Years Output

Declared noxious(1951)

Biological control initiated(1963)

CLIMEX � Compare Years Output

CLIMEX � Compare Years Output

Low GI for past 20 years

GI~year*bio.status Biocontrol initiated

CLIMEX � Compare Years Output

CLIMEX � Compare Years Output

Springfield

Biocontrol initiatedGI~year*bio.status

Photo by Niels Hintzen

Insect Survey

Photo by Niels Hintzen

Measuring plants&

Insecticide Application

Relative Growth Rate (Volume) of Groundsel Bush

So� has the biological control program against groundsel

bush been successful?

+ +

Acknowledgements

Funding for Emapi:

Supervisors: Prof Myron Zalucki, Dr Yvonne Buckley and Dr Adele Reid

CLIMEX assistance: Dr Bob Sutherst and Dr Ben Lawson

USA herbariums for location data

Rod Wood (BCC): Access to historical photos

Field assistance: Sarah Chilton, Blair Chilton, David Perovic, Megan Ward, Jennifer Firn, Yvonne Buckley & Adam Dinsdale

Field site use: