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What is the effect of the 2012 Projected WeatherPattern on the island of Mindanao?
Vicente B. Malano , Ph.D.Acting DA for Operations and ServicesPAGASA
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Thunderstorms
Tail-end of Cold front
Low Pressure Area Tropical Cyclones
Easterly Wave
Monsoons
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Weather Systems to affect the country
during February to March
1. Northeast Monsoon.
2. Tail end of cold front.
3. Low Pressure Area (LPA).
4. Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA).
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Weather Systems to affect the country
during April to June
1. Tail end of cold front.
2. Inter-tropical Convergence Zone.
3. Southwest Monsoon.
4. Easterly wave.
5. Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA).
6. Two(2) to four(4) tropical cyclones.
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Butuan
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Lumbia
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Dipolog
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Malaybalay
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Hinatuan
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Davao
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Zamboanga
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in General Santos
NORMAL (1981-2010)
NEUTRAL
EL NIO
LA NIA
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Percent of Normal Interpretation
for Monthly Rainfall
Actual Rainfall
Normal Rainfallx 100%Percent of Normal =
PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION
< 40%
41% - 80%
81% - 120%
> 120 %
below normal
near normal
above normal
way below normal
PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION
< 40%
41% - 80%
81% - 120%
> 120 %
PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION
< 40%
41% - 80%
81% - 120%
> 120 %
below normal
near normal
above normal
way below normal
Within normal
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Rainfall during thisMonth (Feb 2012)
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February 1-13, 2012Actual (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)(1971-2000)
Actual Rainfall for February 2012
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Projected Rainfall(March July 2012)
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Monthly Rainfall ForecastENSEMBLE
March 2012
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1971-2000)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
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April 2012
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1971-2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastENSEMBLEMonthly Rainfall Forecast
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May 2012
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1971-2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastENSEMBLEMonthly Rainfall Forecast
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June 2012
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1971-2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastENSEMBLEMonthly Rainfall Forecast
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July 2012
Forecast (mm) % Normal
Normal (mm)
(1971-2000)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
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Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Mindanao Area in millimeters (February June 2012)
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Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Mindanao Area in Percent Normal (February June 2012)
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Historical El Nio and La Nia EpisodesBased on the ONI computed using ERSST.v3b
NOTE:
After updating the
ocean analysisto
ERSST.v3b, a new La
Nia episode was
classi
fied (ASO 1962-DJF 1962/63) and two
previous La Nia
episodes were
combined into one
single episode (AMJ
1973- MAM 1976).
Highest
El Nio ONI Value
Lowest
La Nina ONI ValueJAS 1951 - NDJ 1951/52 0.8 ASO 1949 FMA 1951 -1.7
MAM 1957 MJJ 1958 1.7 MAM 1954 DJF 1956/57 -2.1
JJA 1963 DJF 1963/64 1.0 ASO 1962 DJF 1962/63 -0.8
MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 1.6 MAM 1964 DJF 1964/65 -1.1
OND 1968 MJJ 1969 1.0 NDJ 1967/68 MAM 1968 -0.9
ASO 1969 DJF 1969/70 0.8 JJA 1970 DJF 1971/72 -1.3
AMJ 1972 FMA 1973 2.1 AMJ 1973 MAM 1976 -2.0
ASO 1976 JFM 1977 0.8 SON 1984 ASO 1985 -1.0
ASO 1977 - DJF 1977/78 0.8 AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 -1.9
AMJ 1982 MJJ 1983 2.3 ASO 1995 FMA 1996 -0.7
JAS 1986 JFM 1988 1.6 JJA 1998 MJJ 2000 -1.6
AMJ 1991 JJA 1992 1.8 SON 2000 JFM 2001 -0.7
AMJ 1994 FMA 1995 1.3 ASO 2007 AMJ 2008 -1.4
AMJ 1997 AMJ 1998 2.5 JJA 2010 MAM 2011 -1.4
AMJ 2002 FMA 2003 1.5
MJJ 2004 JFM 2005 0.9
JAS 2006 - DJF 2006/07 1.1
MJJ 2009 MAM 2010 1.8
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Weather and Climate Effects/impacts
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.
TS Sendong ranked No. 1 in
the ten (10) most destructive TCs
during 2011 with the most
number of casualties totalling to1,257 (as per NDRRMC report).
Cagayan de Oro and Iligan
suffered the most.
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February 2006
Floods in Surigaoprovinces, Agusan
provinces, Southern
Samar and Leyte Island
Aurora
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From Philippine Star ( December 2010
Albay Flooding)Compostela Valley Flooding (Jan 3,2011)
Mindanao Flood (January 5, 2011
) Mindanao Flood (January 7, 2011
)
2010-2011 La Nia Impacts
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FLASH
FLOOD
T. STORMT. STORM
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THANK YOU !
PAGASA-DOST website:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/