Climate Change andClimate Trends & Projections

in the Philippines

Presented by:

Vivien S. Esquivel

PAGASA-DOST

TEACHERS’ TRAINING ON CLIMATE CHANGESouth Central School

San Fernando City, La UnionOctober 25, 2012

Contents

What is global warming?• Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s

mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.

Strong Strong temperature temperature increase since increase since 1975 1975 (unprecedented)(unprecedented)

global average air global average air temperature temperature increased by 0.74°C increased by 0.74°C from 1906 to 2005from 1906 to 2005

4

“Change in the climate is attributed directly or attributed directly or indirectly to human indirectly to human activitiesactivities , in addition to natural climate variability observed, over a comparable time periods” - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

What is climate change?

A diagram of the natural greenhouse effect on earth, where the Earth's temperature is kept constant to support life.

A diagram showing how additional greenhouse gases trap more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere and raises the temperature.

The Sun’s energy passes through the car’s windshield.

This energy (heat) is trapped inside the car and cannot pass back through the windshield, causing the inside of the car to warm up.

Example of the Greenhouse Effect

CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels(Oil,Coal) by Powerplants, Industries and Vehicles

Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse GasGas

Carbon dioxide

Energy GenerationIndustrial Processes

Transportation

Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production

Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects

Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse GasGas

Methane

Land Use: Agriculture & Forestry

Nitrous Oxide:

• Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans• Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture• Biomass Burning • Combustion Process of Vehicles

Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse GasGas

Nitrous oxides

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse GasGas

Hydrofluorocarbons

Is the Climate Changing?

Key findings of the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report:

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

Warming of the climate system

Increasing in global average air and ocean temperatures

Rising global average sea level

Reductions of snow and ice

Warmest 12 years on record

IPCC Conclusions

What are the impacts of Climate Change on various socio-economic

sectors?

Agriculture and food security– Added heat stress, shifting monsoons, drier soils and

water shortages as a result of higher temperatures will affect livestock and crop production patterns with expanded range of weeds, insects and diseases which may reduce global food supplies and contribute to higher food prices.

Impacts of Climate Change

Impacts of Climate Change

WILL DIRECTLY THREATEN FOOD SECURITY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PHILIPPINES HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST POPULATION GROWTH

Impacts of Climate Change

Decline of 29% - 60% in agricultural yield

- Extreme temperatures can directly cause the loss of life (ex: 35,000 people died during heat wave in Europe, Aug‘03.)

.

Impacts of Climate ChangeOn Health

- Extreme temperatures can directly cause the loss of life (ex: 35,000 people died during heat wave in Europe, Aug‘03.)

.

Impacts of Climate ChangeOn Health

Global Warming increases drought which lessens the supply of clean drinking water.

• Cholera It increases temperature

providing an ideal breeding environment for mosquitoes.

• Dengue fever• Malaria• Yellow fever

Impacts of Climate ChangeOn Health

Impacts of Climate Change

Impacts of Global Warming• Severe Drought• Reduction in agricultural production enhancing poverty and

food shortage• Ground water depletion due to excessive ground water

extraction• Dwindling water resources • Flooding both in riverine area and flash floods from in hill

torrents. • Threat to aquatic life and migratory birds• Reduced hydro power generation result to more emphasis

on fossil fuel.• Sea level Rise

Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm

The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disturbances and disasters. The past typhoons have been unusually devastating to our country and our people. The past typhoons have been unusually devastating to our country and our people.

TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)TY Milenyo, Sept 2006

Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE

Feb 2006

How vulnerable is the Philippines?

Highly Susceptible to Floodings and Inundation• Archipelago, composed of

low lying small islands

• 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas

• Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

Rank Countries1 Bangladesh2 Burma3 Honduras4 Vietnam5 Nicaragua6 Haiti7 India8 Dominican Republic9 Philippines

10 China

Top Ten Countries vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change (2008-2009). http://www.aneki.com

“Of all the nations in the world, the Philippines has experienced the most number of natural hazards in the 20th century. China, the USA in third position”. Kovach, R.L. 1995. Earth’s Fury” An introduction to natural hazards and disaster. Prentice Hall, NJ, USA.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

www.cdrc-phil.com

2009 Source: CRED Crunch, Issue No. 19,

WorldRisk Report 2011UNU-EHS: United Nation UniversityInstitute of Environment and Human SocietySource: WorldRiskReport.org

WorldRisk Report 2011UNU-EHS: United Nation UniversityInstitute of Environment and Human SocietySource: WorldRiskReport.org

How is global warming manifested in the

Philippines?

In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer.

Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent.

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale?

Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values

An increase of 0.648°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Diff

eren

ce (�C

) fro

m 1

971-2

000)

Year

Annual mean temp

Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST

Period Rate1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) - 0.0164 1951-2010 (60 years) - 0.0108

Years � C/year

Philippine mean temperature

Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

Maximum & Minimum Temperature

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days).

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Warm nights)

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentileCool Days

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile Cold nights

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 – 2008)

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set)

Visited by an average of19 to 20 TYPHOONS

EVERY YEAR

s.

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North PacificPeriod: (1948-2010)

1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 2081-2010

19.8 20.2 19.5 18.8

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

Num

ber

of T

ropi

cal C

yclo

nes

30 years Mean No. of T.C.

Comparison of 30-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines

1981-2010

Comparison of 30-year mean of T.C.

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines

o In most parts of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing but not all are statistically significant.

o Only in Baguio, Tacloban and Iloilo shows statistically significant increase in rainfall intensity.

Trends in the Extreme Rainfall Intensity Philippines*

(1951 – 2008)

oMost parts of the country are generally increasing in trend but not all are significant.

oOnly in Calapan, Laoag, Iloilo and Tacloban shows statistically significant increasing trend.

oWhile significantly decreasing trend is found in Palawan.

Trends in the Frequency of Extreme Daily Rainfall in the Philippines*

(1951 – 2008)

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Extreme Weather EventsWeather EventsRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

Above +Above +2ºC impacts will be large2ºC impacts will be large

DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE PHILIPPINES

1A.48

• To provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies;

• To aid in strategic planning and/or policy formation;

• To structure our knowledge (or ignorance) of the future;

• Since precise forecasts of future climate is not possible, an alternative approach is to construct Climate Scenarios.

Why do we need climate scenarios?

DownscalingProcess of generating higher resolution data or climate change information from relatively coarse resolution GCMs relevant for

adaptation and policy

Prepared by Elaine Barrow, CCIS Project

300k

m

50km

10km

1m

Poin

tGlobal Climate Models supply...

Impact models require ...

Because there is a mismatch of scales between what climate models can supply and what environmental impact models require.

What is downscaling and why do we need to downscale?

Representation of the Philippines in different model resolution

25 km 50 km 300 km

Storyline Description

A1 Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate. Subdivisions: A1FI – reliance on fossil fuels; A1T – reliance on non-fossil fuels; A1B – a balance

across all fuel sources A2 Self-reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population;

economic growth on regional scales B1 Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to

economic, social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; population peaks mid-century

B2 Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate than in A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1

Emission Scenarios

Climate Projection for the Philippines

(2020,2050 & 2100)

Projected Change in annual mean temperature Medium-range Emission A1B Scenario

Dry seasons becoming drier.

Wet seasons becoming wetter.

Medium-range Emission Scenario

2020 2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.1 to-25.1-%

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) -0.2 to -33.3% -1.4 to -39.8%

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) -0.4 to 43.1% -0.7 to 72.5%

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 30.0% -0.5 to 39.0%

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will continue to increase in number in Luzon, Visayas & eastern sections of the country.

Frequency of Extreme Rainfall

hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C) will continue to become more frequent.

Frequency of Extreme

Temperature

Climate Change in the Philippines

Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in Region I

The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in Region 1 are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively. To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in each of the tables). For example, in Pangasinan, the projected values in 2020 are:•DJF mean temperature = (25.0 °C + 0.9 °C) = 25.9 °C;•DJF rainfall = {19.4mm+19.4(54.3%)mm} = (19.4+10.5)mm or 29.9mm;•number of days with Tmax > 35 °C in Dagupan City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 2,265;•number of dry days in Dagupan City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 6,443; and•number of days with rainfall > 300mm in Dagupan City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) =13.

Table a: Seasonal temperature increases (in oC) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region I

Table b: Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region I

OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000) CHANGE in 2020 (2006-2035) CHANGE in 2050 (2036-2065)

DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON

Region 1

ILOCOS NORTE 25.3 28.1 28.3 27.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.8

ILOCOS SUR 23.1 25.7 25.4 24.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.8

LA UNION 20.5 22.9 22.8 22.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.8

PANGASINAN 25.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.0

OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000)

mm CHANGE in 2020 (2006-2035) CHANGE in 2050 (2036-2065)

DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON

Region 1

ILOCOS NORTE 49.8 185.5 1106.4 595.4 4.4 -3.1 18.0 5.8 -18.8 -31.3 20.9 4.7

ILOCOS SUR 17.5 288.8 1575.4 672.9 -4.6 -2.0 36.3 23.0 -0.1 -27.6 58.1 33.3

LA UNION 14.7 395.6 1852.3 837.8 -0.4 4.5 43.1 30.0 -1.1 -24.6 72.5 39.0

PANGASINAN 19.4 298.0 1608.9 707.8 54.3 -6.0 6.1 5.9 1.1 -11.2 22.9 11.9

Table b: Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region 1

Table c: Frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in Region I

Provinces StationsNo. of Days w/ Tmax >35 °C No. of Dry Days

No. of Days w/ Rainfall >300mm

OBS (1971-2000) 2020 2050 OBS 2020 2050 OBS 2020 2050

ILOCOS NORTE Laoag 801 1677 3157 9015 7391 7425 4 19 10

ILOCOS SUR Vigan 110 130 627 8728 8105 7939 1 17 6

PANGASINAN Dagupan 1280 2265 3728 8303 6443 6419 2 13 20

Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in CAR (Cordillera Administrative Region)

The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in CAR are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively. To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in each of the tables).  For example, in Benguet, the projected values in 2020 are:DJF mean temperature in 2020 = (19.4 C+1.0 C) = 20.4 °C;DJF rainfall = {47.7mm+47.7(8.0%)mm} = (47.7+3.8)mm or 51.5mm;no. of days with Tmax > 35 C in Baguio City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 0;no. of dry days in Baguio City during the 2006-2035 period(centered at 2020) = 5,320; andno. of days with rainfall > 300mm in Baguio City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 39.

Table a: Seasonal temperature increases (in °C) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in CAR

OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-

2000)CHANGE in 2020 (2006-

2035)CHANGE in 2050 (2036-

2065) DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SONCAR ABRA 24.5 27.4 27.2 26.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.9 APAYAO 24.8 28.0 28.4 27.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 BENGUET 19.4 21.9 22.0 21.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.9 IFUGAO 22.2 25.6 25.8 24.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 KALINGA 23.8 27.5 27.7 26.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE

22.7 26.0 26.1 24.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9

OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-

2000) mmCHANGE in 2020 (2006-

2035)CHANGE in 2050 (2036-

2065) DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SONCAR ABRA 43.5 220.6 1218.9 634.4 5.0 -1.8 22.3 14.0 -2.1 -28.1 35.0 15.9 APAYAO 144.6 184.0 822.7 720.1 2.6 0.4 5.8 16.6 3.0 -23.7 1.1 -0.3 BENGUET 47.7 422.3 1734.9 931.8 8.0 0.2 31.6 21.7 -6.0 -26.7 63.1 21.8 IFUGAO 102.6 321.0 1071.1 724.9 -6.0 -9.6 14.4 8.9 -1.3 -24.2 17.6 -2.9 KALINGA 92.3 228.0 892.3 691.9 1.0 -9.1 4.5 14.8 4.2 -21.0 3.9 1.1

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE

74.8 286.8 1121.1 699.2 -2.7 -7.7 16.4 14.9 1.1 -27.4 26.6 8.5

Table b: Seasonal rainfall change (in %) in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in CAR

Provinces Stations

No. of Days w/ Tmax >35 °C No. of Dry Days

No. of Days w/ Rainfall >300mm

OBS (1971-2000) 2020 2050 OBS 2020 2050 OBS 2020

2050

BENGUETBaguio City

0 0 0 7248 5320 5379 29 39 35

Table c: Frequency of extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under medium-range emission scenario in provinces in CAR

CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES

STATION: BAGUIO CITY

Lat: 16o24'36"N Long: 120o36'00"EYEAR: AS OF 2011

          GREATEST DAILY HIGHEST          TEMPERATURE (oC) RAINFALL (MM) WIND (MPS) SEA LEVEL PRESSURES (MBS)

MONTH HIGH DATE LOW DATEAMOUN

T DATE SPD DIR DATE HIGH DATE LOW DATE JAN 29.7 01-31-1978 6.3 01-18-1961 107.4 01-25-2006 20 SE 01-25-1975 1021.7 01-18-1959 1001.9 01-01-1950 FEB 28.7 02-10-1978 6.7 02-01-1963 58.4 02-26-2008 15 ESE 02-13-1974 1020.6 02-01-1962 1002.3 02-07-1985 MAR 30.4 03-15-1988 7.4 03-01-1963 80.6 03-27-2001 17 ESE 03-28-1996 1019.6 03-07-2006 1000.6 03-05-1999 APR 30.0 04-12-2010 10.0 04-01-1923 147.7 04-08-1967 25 SW 04-25-1976 1018.0 04-05-1998 992.4 04-21-1956 MAY 29.4 05-09-2003 7.7 05-30-1989 730.3 05-15-1980 30 ESE 05-17-2008 1014.0 05-02-1978 987.8 05-23-1976 JUNE 28.7 06-03-1991 11.8 06-20-2004 538.4 06-29-2004 35 WNW 06-26-1993 1014.0 06-27-1993 985.9 06-10-1974 JULY 27.9 07-04-1983 12.5 07-08-1925 1085.8 07-04-2001 47 SE 07-20-1974 1012.8 07-12-1979 981.0 07-04-2001 AUG 27.7 08-30-1988 12.8 08-12-1936 969.8 08-04-2008 31 S 08-07-1964 1014.0 08-18-1963 985.3 08-06-1964 SEP 28.0 09-04-1981 12.6 09-01-1990 799.8 09-27-1911 38 S 09-11-1970 1013.8 09-28-1982 980.1 09-27-2011 OCT 27.7 10-08-1980 11.3 10-26-1913 994.6 10-14-1998 41 WNW 10-27-1974 1015.8 10-26-2008 978.9 10-24-1988 NOV 28.2 11-19-1987 9.2 11-30-1989 698.7 11-05-1980 41 SE 11-04-1967 1018.2 11-30-1978 978.4 11-08-1954 DEC 28.2 12-28-1929 7.6 12-13-1991 148.8 12-04-1936 30 SSE 12-02-2004 1019.7 12-19-1994 974.1 12-14-1964                           ANNUAL 30.4 03-15-1988 6.3 01-18-1961 1085.8 07-04-2001 47 SE 07-20-1974 1021.7 01-18-1959 974.1 12-14-1964Period of

1909 - 2011 1902 - 2011 1950 - 2011 1949 - 2011Record

Responses to Responses to Climate ChangeClimate Change

67

What can you do to help What can you do to help solve the problem?solve the problem?

Mitigation Actions

70

AdaptationAdaptationPractical steps to protect countries Practical steps to protect countries and communities from the likely and communities from the likely disruption and damage that will disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate changeresult from effects of climate change

MitigationMitigationAn anthropogenic intervention to An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Mitigation Actions

Mitigation Actions

WATER RESOURCEWATER RESOURCEDesign standards and regulations

AGRICULTUREAGRICULTUREImprove water use efficiency

a

Adaptation Measures

AGRICULTUREAGRICULTUREDesign standards and regulations

UPGRADING CAPABILITIES TO ANTICIPATE CHANGES IN WEATHER (FORECASTING) & IMPROVE CLIMATE PROFILE (DATA BASE)

STRATEGIES/MEASURES

PAGASA-DOST ADAPTATION MEASURES

PAGASA’s Response Activities

Enhancement of Observing systems and monitoring facilities for early warning system

• Upgrading of surveillance radars/ Establishment of Doppler Radar• Upgrading of Satellite Facilities (NOAA, MTSAT)• Acquisition of MODIS Satellite• Upgrading of Upper Air Stations• Buoys, wind profilers, AWS

Strategies in the Design of a Flood Early Warning

System

CC adaptation requires an understanding of vulnerabilities and impacts

77

Adaptation means pro-active planning for a range of possible future scenarios

78