Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines by Rosalina G. de Guzman Assistant Weather...

Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines

1Assistant Weather Services Chief, PAGASA/DOST

Presented by: Rosalina G. de Guzman1

Presentation from the Climate Change Consciousness Week Event Function Rooms 1 & 2, SMX Convention Center, Pasay City November 21-22, 2011

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Contents

Observed Changes

Projected Changes and Impacts

Climate Scenario in the Philippines

Presentation from the Climate Change Consciousness Week Event Function Rooms 1 & 2, SMX Convention Center, Pasay City

November 21-22, 2011

Is the Climate Changing?



Key findings of the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report:

1. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”



Presentation from the Climate Change Consciousness Week Event Function Rooms 1 & 2, SMX Convention Center, Pasay City, November 21-22, 2011

8th Philippine Non-Life Insurance Summit, Hotel Intercontinental, Makati City, 27 April 2011

Climate change – impacts & implications

DOST PAGASA -

Climate change experts anticipate more extreme

weather events; but their severity and location are

difficult to predict. Increases are expected in: flash

flooding; landslides, as a result of intense rainfall or

flood water; storm surges; man-made floods, such

as breaches of embankments; and areas not

previously prone to flooding, such as urban areas.



8th Philippine Non-Life Insurance Summit, Hotel Intercontinental, Makati City, 27 April 2011 DOST

PAGASA -

How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?




PAGASA -

Heavier precipitation ……… Total Damage = PhP11.1 B ~ (USD234 M)

Espinueva & Nilo, 2009




Dead Affected

population Total

Damage

734 2.0M P5.5B

Typhoon Reming (DURIAN) 29 November 2006 in Albay

Dead Affected

population Total

Damage

184 4.0M P6.4B

Typhoon Milenyo (XANGSANE) 28 September 2006 in MM




PAGASA -

. The scale of floods in the Philippines is increasing, as is the number of

floods.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

NIT

AN

G (I

ke)

SALI

NG

(Dot

)

HER

MIN

G (B

etty

)

UN

SAN

G (R

uby)

YON

ING

(Ski

p)

RU

PIN

G (M

ike)

TRIN

ING

(Rut

h)

KA

DIN

G (F

lo)

MO

NA

NG

(Lol

a)

RO

SIN

G (A

ngel

a)

MA

MEN

G (S

ybil)

LOLE

NG

(Bab

a)

ILIA

NG

(Zeb

)

REM

ING

(Xan

gsan

e)

FER

IA (U

tor)

NA

NA

NG

(Lin

glin

g)

HA

RU

RO

T (Im

budo

)

YOYO

NG

(Nan

mad

ol)

MIL

ENYO

(Xan

gsan

e)

REM

ING

(Dur

ian)

MIN

A

CO

SME

FRA

NK

ON

DO

Y

PEPE

NG

1984 1985 1987 1988 1988 1990 1991 1993 1993 1995 1995 1998 1998 2000 2001 2001 2003 2004 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009

Damage in billion pesos (1984 - 2009)

Source: Office of Civil Defense (OCD).



Climate Trends in the Philippines



In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer.

Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent.

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale?



Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values

An increase of 0.648°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Diff

eren

ce (

C) f

rom

197

1-20

00)

Year

Annual mean temp

Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST

Period Rate1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) - 0.0164 1951-2010 (60 years) - 0.0108

Years C/year

Philippine mean temperature



Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

Maximum & Minimum Temperature



Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Hot days).

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Warm nights)

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cool Days

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cold nights

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)



Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set)

Visited by an average

19 to 20 TYPHOONS

EVERY YEAR

s.

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: (1948-2010)

y = -0.0223x + 20.124

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Numb

er of

Trop

ical C

yclon

es

Year

Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PARPeriod: 1948-2010

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Five-year running mean

Linear (Five-year running mean)

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010



TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Nu

mb

er 51-8061-9071-00


9, 1987(10), 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Fre

qu

en

cy

of

TC

Year

Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2010

Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCsNeutral year El Niño year La Niña year

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above



T.C. NAME STATION MAX. WIND (KPH)

DATE OF OCCURRENCE DURATION

TY REMING Virac Radar 320 11/30/2006 NOV 28 - DEC 03 TY LOLENG Virac S. 287 10/21/1998 OCT 15 - OCT 25 TY ANDING Virac R. 280 11/27/1981 NOV 21 - NOV 27 TY SENING Virac S. 276 10/13/1970 OCT 10 - OCT 16 TY WENING Aparri 269 10/27/1974 OCT 25 - OCT 29 TY TRINING Masbate 269 12/15/1987 DEC 14 - DEC 19 TY FREDA Casiguran 258 11/16/1959 NOV 12 - NOV 19 TY YOLING Alabat 258 11/19/1970 NOV 17 - NOV 21 TY GARDING Guiuan 258 12/21/1994 DEC 17 - DEC 24 TS SALING Ambulong 251 10/10/1989 OCT 08 - OCT 11 TY ROSING Virac R 251 11/2/1995 OCT 31 - NOV 04 TY MAMENG Basco 240 10/12/1975 OCT 09 - OCT 13 TY ATANG Guiuan 240 4/19/1978 APR 18 - APR 26 TY SALING Daet 233 10/18/1985 OCT 15 - OCT 20 TY SISANG Legaspi 233 11/25/1987 NOV 23 - NOV 27 TY SUSANG Aparri 230 10/10/1974 OCT 09 - OCT 12 TY ARING Virac R 230 11/4/1980 NOV 01 - NOV 07

Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST

Recorded Maximum Gustiness during the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)

T.C. NAME STATION GREATEST 24-HR. RAINFALL (MM)

DATE OF OCCURRENCE DURATION

TY FERIA Baguio 1085.8 07/04/01 JUL 02 - JUL 05

TY ILIANG Baguio 994.6 10/14/98 OCT 10 - OCT 16

TY TRINING Baguio 979.4 10/17/67 OCT 14 - OCT 19

TY SUSANG Baguio 781.4 10/11/74 OCT 09 - OCT 12

TY TRINING Baguio 760.0 10/27/91 OCT 20 - OCT 31

TY DITANG Baguio 730.3 05/15/80 MAY 10 - MAY 20

TS CHEDENG Dagupan 722.6 05/27/03 MAY 25 - MAY 29

TY GADING Baguio 709.6 07/09/86 JUL 06 - JUL 10

TY ARING Baguio 698.7 11/05/80 NOV 01 - NOV 07

TY WENING Baguio 678.8 10/28/74 OCT 25 - OCT 29

TD SISANG Alabat 673.0 12/27/75 DEC 26 - DEC 28

TY NITANG Baguio 649.7 09/28/68 SEP 23 - OCT 01

TY DIDANG Baguio 605.3 05/25/76 MAY 12 - MAY 27

TS ARING Masbate 603.5 12/04/76 DEC 02 - DEC 07

TY REMING Surigao 564.7 11/18/68 NOV 12 - NOV 22

TY CORA Baguio 546.6 11/17/53 NOV 12 - NOV 19

TY OSANG Baguio 536.3 07/25/80 JUL 20 - JUL 26

TS MIDING Baguio 534.2 08/23/78 AUG 20 - AUG 27

Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST

Greatest 24-Hr. Rainfall during the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)



o In most parts of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing

Trends in the Extreme Rainfall Intensity Philippines*

(1951 – 2008)

oMost parts of the country are generally increasing in trend but not all are significant.

oWhile significantly decreasing trend is found in Palawan.

Trends in the Frequency of Extreme Daily Rainfall in the Philippines*

(1951 – 2008)

Rainfall Maps

Dec. 2009

Oct. 2009

Nov. 2009

Sept. 2009

Jan. 2010

Mar. 2010

Feb. 2010

Black areas: Excessive rains

Red areas: rainfall deficit

Extreme Climate Variability (ENSO of 2010)



DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE PHILIPPINES



1A.31

A scenario is:

“a plausible description of a possible future state of the world” (Parry and Carter, 1998)

Not a forecast or a prediction, but alternative views of what the

world could look like in the future

What are climate scenarios?



1A.32

• To provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies;

• To aid in strategic planning and/or policy formation;

• To structure our knowledge (or ignorance) of the future;

• Precise forecasts of future climate is not possible. An alternative approach is to construct Climate Scenarios.

Why do we need climate scenarios?



Representation of the Philippines in different model resolution

25 km 50 km 300 km



The future is uncertain

...

The IPCC SRES scenarios contain various driving forces of climate change, including population growth and socio-economic development . These drivers encompass various future scenarios that might influence greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks, such as the energy system and land use change. The evolution of driving forces underlying climate change is uncertain. This results in a very wide range of possible emissions paths of greenhouse gases.


http://www.lenntech.com/greenhouse-effect/IPCC-scenarios.htm

Climate Projection for the Philippines

(2020,2050 & 2100)



0.9 to 1.1 ºC 1.9 to 2.2 ºC 2.6 to 3.4 ºC


Observed mean temperature has increased by 0.64 ºC during the last 60 years (1951-2010). Projected increase of 1 to 2.0 ºC under a medium emission scenario is expected by 2020 & 2050 and 0.7 to 1.7 ºC increase under a high emission scenario. The figure shows that it is only after 2050 that the temperature increase showing the climate response to high or medium range scenarios will start to diverge. This is due to the fact that Ghg gases already in the atmosphere have long lifetimes and will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize.


1 C 2 C 5 C 4 C 3 C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

Food

Water

Ecosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes

0 C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

Above +2ºC impacts will be large



Dry seasons becoming drier.

Wet seasons becoming wetter.

Medium-range Emission Scenario

2020 2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.1 to-25.1-%

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) -0.2 to -33.3% -1.4 to -39.8%

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) -0.4 to 43.1% -0.7 to 72.5%

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 30.0% -0.5 to 39.0%

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)



Heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will continue to increase in number in Luzon, Visayas & eastern sections of the country.

Frequency of Extreme Rainfall

hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C) will continue to become more frequent.

Frequency of Extreme

Temperature

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Rai

nfa

ll A

mo

un

t (m

m)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0

Davao

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


Rai

nfa

ll A

mo

un

t (m

m)


Hinatuan

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


Ra

infa

ll A

mo

un

t (m

m)


Casiguran

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


Rai

nfa

ll A

mo

un

t (m

m)


Dumaguete

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0


Ra

infa

ll A

mo

un

t (m

m)


Baguio

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0


Ra

infa

ll A

mo

un

t (m

m)


Iloilo

OBS

2020

2050

Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission scenario (A1B) By Climate type

Tracking the sky…helping the country



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