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Climate Uncertainties and Risk Informed Decision Making for Everglades Restorationand South Florida

Climate Uncertainties and Risk Informed Decision Making for Everglades Restorationand South Florida

Glenn B. Landers, P.E.Everglades RECOVER & System-wide Analysis Br.Planning and Policy Division Jacksonville District

Everglades Hydrology and Climate Change WorkshopMarch 30, 2011 Davie, FL


Climate Change Communication Geologic Info on Sea Level

Change through Time SLR Projections for South Florida Hydrologic + Other Uncertainties Combined Risks Risk Informed Decision Making Next Steps

Presentation Outline


Climate Change Communication The CLEO Institute

• CLEO = Creative Learning and Engagement Opportunities• To advance environmental literacy and civic engagement• Highly Successful K-16 Curriculum available for educators• Adult programs supported by major businesses and institutions• Climate Scientists Rapid Response Team to address misinformation• Founder and Director = Caroline Lewis, former principal, now education strategist• http://www.cleoinstitute.org

Focus: “What is Climate Change all about and what is my role?”• Answer in 3 pages, or • Give elevator speech of 3 minutes, or less

Lesson Learned from Everglades Restoration• Public understanding and support resulted in Everglades Restoration authorization• Strong public support is essential for timely action on Climate Change concerns


Florida Through Time –Sea Level Change Happens!

120,000 years ago 18,000 years ago Today+ 6 meters (20’)* - 120 meters (420’)

*~ ½ from Greenland*~ ½ from Antarctica

Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force

Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force


Thousands of 14C years before present

Rate

of

SLR

(mm

/yr)

Global delta initiation(Stanley and Warne, 1994)

U.S. Atlantic, U.K. wetland initiation; barrier island stability(Shennan and Horton, 2002; Engelhart et al., 2009)

mwp-Ia

mwp-Ib

(SLR rate based on Fairbanks, 1989)

Sea-level rise rates since the Last Glacial Maximum

(Slide courtesy of Rob Thieler, USGS)


Years before present

Rate

of

SLR

(mm

/yr)

“Geologic past” (Fairbanks, 1989; Horton et al. 2009)

“Instrumental record”(Church and White, 2006)

“Projections”(Rahmstorf, 2007)

Past, present, and potential future rates of sea-level rise

(Slide courtesy of Rob Thieler, USGS)


NOAA Tide Stationsin Florida

• Key West has the longest non-continuous U.S. tide station record with 130+ years.

• Per USACE EC1165-2-212, a Compliant Tide Station is a station currently being monitored and having at least 40 years of continuous prior record.

• Compliant Tide Stations in Florida are: Key West, Vaca Key, Naples, St. Petersburg, Cedar Key, Apalachicola, Pensacola, Mayport and Fernandina Beach.

• Most of Florida is very stable geologically, so sea level change is similar around the state.

• The USACE is developing a website to provide sea level change projections for compliant NOAA Tide Stations nationwide.


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2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

Rel

ativ

e R

ise

(fee

t)

Year

Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios for South Florida

50 yr Planning

100 yr Planning Horizon

Notes: Projections are for historic, modified NRC Curve I and modified NRC Curve III rates of sea level change developed for South Florida per USACE Engineering Circular (EC) 1165-2-211. This EC is based on guidance in the National Research Council (NRC) report, Responding to Changes in Sea Level; Engineering Implications dated September, 1987. The projection is developed using the historic rate of sea level rise at Key West as reported by NOAA (2.24 mm/yr). The dashed line indicates that the EC equation is being used past the year 2100. The underlying documents supporting the EC do not address dates beyond 2100. These scenarios to be revised to list change relative to NAVD88 topographic map datum and other potential refinements.

20 yr Horizon

2110

2060

2030

YearElapsedTime,years

Relative Sea Level Rise, inches

HistoricModified

NRC Curve I

Modified NRC Curve

III

2010 0 0 0 0

2030 20 2 3 7

2060 50 4 9 24

2100 90 8 19 572110 100 9 23 67

2010

2100


HistoricFlow

CurrentFlow

FutureFlow

Everglades – Water Flow Patterns Everglades – Water Flow Patterns

(USACE, 2010)


Everglades Restoration Restore natural hydrologic

conditions in the remaining 50% of historic Everglades• Water quantity, quality, timing and

distribution• Develop watershed scale modeling

tools and monitoring program Maintain or enhance existing

services in developed areas• Flood Risk Reduction, Water Supply, and

other for +/- 6M people Use Adaptive Management to adjust

over time Sustain ecosystem benefits for

future generations


Climate Change Concerns for South Florida

Hydrologic Pattern Changes• More extreme events (droughts and floods) due to less frequent and more

intense rain events• Potential increased tropical storm intensity or frequency

Sea Level Rise• Increasing flood frequency in coastal areas• Saltwater intrusion in water supply wells,

OR higher canal stages and flood risks• Salinity changes in coastal bays• Shoreline retreat and rapid peat loss with natural habitat changes/losses

Warmer Temperatures• Evaporation losses up; water supply down• Stresses on plant, animal, and marine ecosystems• Changes in growing season and migratory patterns• Changes in water quality


Extreme Drought and Recovery


Direct Impacts (storm surge)

Flood Damage (increased frequency, depth and/or duration of urban flooding)

Water Supply (saltwater intrusion)

Natural System (coastal ecosystems and rapid peat loss)

SLR Impacts on CERP areas

Ocean Avenue, A1A

(SFWMD, 2011) (FAU, 2008)


SLR ImpactsDIRECT IMPACTS

BEACH EROSION

COASTAL FLOODING & ECOSYSTEM CHANGES

INUNDATION OF BARRIER ISLANDS

AND COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE

(FAU, 2008) (SAHA, FIU, 2011)


Flood Damage Concerns

Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity drainage canals

The population of South Florida is

6 million and growing

FLOW


Shallow wells are the primary source of drinking water in South Florida communities

Continued sea level rise will cause saltwater intrusion into wells and create a need for new freshwater sources

--- OR --- Protecting water supply

wells with higher canal stages will increase flooding in many low elevation communities

Conceptual diagram of hydrologic systemof south Florida (Langevin, USGS, 2000)

Flood Risk vs Water Supply Concerns


SLR Impacts

Natural System Relocation and possible reduction of mangrove forests

Forced migration of wading birds northward

Potential peat collapse, coastal erosion, and redistribution of sediments

Salinity intrusion into freshwater marshes can: discharge toxic hydrogen sulfide, cause coastal fish kills, and increase habitat loss

NATURAL SYSTEM – Southern Everglades

(SFWMD, 2011)


Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at

Key West A 2 foot rise would have significant effects


Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century measured at

Key West A 4-5 foot rise would have dramatic impacts

MHHW +120 cm (4 ft) rise MHHW +150 cm (5 ft) rise


Risk

Risk is a measure of the probability and consequence of uncertain future events

Risk includes • Potential for gain (opportunities) • Exposure to losses (hazards)

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Risk Analysis in Three Tasks

Risk Management• Policy and preference

based

Risk Assessment• Analytically based

Risk Communication•Interactive exchange of information, opinions,

and preferences concerning risks


Risk-Informed Decision Making Confluence of risk assessment and risk management

• Assessors - convey significance of uncertainty• Managers – explicitly consider risk in decision making

Process develops and uses risk information to aid decisions made under uncertainty• Decision metrics and rules developed by decision makers• Use risk assessment approach to develop science-based

values of risk metrics


Risk Management Framework

Adapted from ISO 31000:2009 “Risk Management — Principles and Guidelines”

Co

mm

un

icat

ion

& S

take

ho

lde

r In

volv

em

en

t


1. Establish Decision Context Identify purpose, objectives, metrics What are the questions that need to be answered and

the risks to be considered?• CC is one among multiple uncertainties or sources of risk

Begin to put CC into context• Identify climate change factors that affect objectives or

project outputs and services• Initial assessment of vulnerability • Influence Diagrams may help ID factors


Influence Diagram


Credit: Peter W. Harlem, Florida International University, Southeast Environmental Research Center

Cumulative Percent of Brevard and Miami-Dade Counties Impacted versus Sea Level Rise Elevations

Sea

Leve

l R

ise

(FT)

90% of County below 10 ft MSL


2. Risk AssessmentIdentify and Analyze

Inventory and Forecast of Conditions• Characterize the risk through description of current and

changing threats or opportunities, probabilities, consequences, and uncertainties

• Quantitative or qualitative

Identify critical thresholds or transition points• Thresholds occur where system performance becomes

marginal or fails• “level or magnitude of system process at which sudden or

rapid change occurs” and new properties may emerge in ecological system (IPCC, 2007)


Risk Assessment—Informally

What can go wrong? How can it happen? How quickly can it happen? How likely is it? What are the consequences?

• Direct –• Indirect -

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3. Risk Assessment:Analyze Risks and Formulate Alternatives

Formulate with vulnerabilities in mind Reactive – take action after impacts occur

• Planned – decide now, implement later• Ad Hoc – no decisions until impacts occur

Anticipatory – implement features now• E.g. – acquire additional lands for wetland migration; increase

design parameters for engineered features

Adaptive Management – sequential decisions and implementation based on new knowledge. Requires ongoing monitoring, funding when needed AND time to implement.

Timing of action is a key issue


United Kingdom Climate Adaptation Approaches:Precautionary versus managed adaptive

Figure courtesy of Jonathan Simm, HR Wallingford, UK


4. Evaluate Risks and Alternatives Quantitative, qualitative forecast w/project Screening to Focus the Evaluation & Comparison:

• “Completeness, Effectiveness, Efficiency, Acceptability” take on slightly different meaning with scenarios

• Sustainable – inputs and outputs• Resiliency – how quickly system returns to “normal” condition• Robustness – adaptive capacity; ability of key design

parameters (features) to operate effectively in the face of variability and uncertainty of future events (CISRERP, 2006)

• Precludes future decisions? Avoid this if possible. Maintain flexibility.


Evaluate RisksCompare Alternatives

Life-cycle costs Sustainability or Outcome Risks

• No eco restoration at 50 years? At 100?

Adaptability or Adaptive Capacity Timing of Action

• Lead time required?• Thresholds reached? What’s the canary?


5. Risk Management Decision

Sustainable Robustness – performs well under wide range of

future conditions Cost-risk trade-offs

• Regret-based approach• If cost-cost trade-off, no firm rule• If trade-off of cost vs. safety, precautionary with respect to

safety risk, minimize worst-case outcome


CCSP SAP 5.2 From CCSP SAP 5.2, p 121 “…a robustness criterion often yields no single best answer but rather helps

decision makers to use available scientific and socio-economic information to distinguish a set of reasonable choices from unreasonable choices and to understand the tradeoffs implied by choosing among the reasonable options…. In contrast to optimal strategies that, by definition, focus on the middle range of uncertainty most heavily weighted by the best estimate probability density function, robustness focuses more on, presumably unlikely but not impossible, extreme events and states of the world, without letting them completely dominate the decision….One common means of achieving robustness is via an adaptive strategy, that is, one that can evolve over time in response to new information.”


Take-Aways Scope work according to sensitivity of conditions

(decision metrics) to CC; what are the consequences of being “wrong”;

Think in terms of life-cycle; when are best times to act; what are the appropriate signals

Formulate array of alternatives that includes adaptive, anticipatory, and reactive strategies

Sustainable, Resilient, Adaptive may become additional Formulation and Evaluation Criteria

Seek Robust Plans Display cost-risk trade-offs


Take-Aways (cont.) Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) on 3/28/12

launched a five-year planning initiative focused on community resiliency and hazard mitigation including sea level rise.

This effort is funded by a grant from FDEP. In the first year they plan to address the following: Establish sea level rise scenarios in Florida for planning purposes

(i.e. how much water and when) Determine appropriate planning horizons and integration points

into the current planning framework How to best address sea level rise in the State Hazard Mitigation

Plan


Discussion Item The USACE has three scenarios for SLR – historic, intermediate

and high. Is it possible to develop corresponding hydrologic scenarios in

terms of rainfall changes over times and extreme events?


Thank you!

For additional information, contact:[email protected]

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