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Climate Variability and Change: An Overview
Leigh Welling
Crown of the Continent Research Learning Center
Glacier National Park
What is Climate?
How does climate differ from weather?
Climate is what you expect,
weather is what you get.
OR…
Climate tells you what clothes to buy,
weather tells you what clothes to wear.
•Net transfer of heat from tropics to higher latitudes
•Is the fundamental driving force for weather and climate
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
GOES Satellite
Gulf Stream Temperature
• warm, tropical water travels north
• heat is released to atmosphere
• affects weather and climate on East Coast and in Europe
What is Climate Variability?
Earth’s climate varies across latitudes, seasons, and over multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century time scales.
Equatorial Cold Tongue:
red = warm waterblue = cold water
ENSO is an example of natural climate variability
Persistent, extended Pacific Jet Stream & amplified storm track
Typical US winter patterns during El Niño and La Niña
El Niño
La Niña
Polar Jet Stream
Variable Polar Jet Stream
Variable Pacific Jet Stream
warm
dry
dry
wetcool
cold
wet
wetwarm
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
warm phase
cool phase
PDO index
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative phasepositive phase
Carbon dioxide: up 32%
Gulf Stream Temperature
• warm, tropical water travels north
• heat transfer affects weather and climate
• surface water becomes dense and sinks
GREAT OCEAN CONVEYOR BELT
Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence
All Climate Influences
U.S.
186.1Total CO2
emissions since 1950 in billions of tons
EuropeanUnion
127.8Russia
68.4Ukraine
21.7Poland
14.4
China
57.6Japan
31.2
Australia
7.6
India
15.5
Kazakhstan
10.1
South Africa
8.5
Canada
14.9
Mexico
7.8Trinidad and Tobago
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Generalized Atmospheric Circulation