Climate Variability and Climate Change Scenarios for Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica, Costa Rica

Eric J. Alfaro

Marine Sciences and Limnology Research Center (CIMAR), School of Physics and Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI).

University of Costa Rica

VII Convención Internacional sobreMedio Ambiente y Desarrollo

“Formar Conciencia para Salvar al Planeta“I Congreso Internacional sobre Cambio Climático

Palacio de las Convenciones, Habana, CubaJuly 6 – 10th, 2009

Corresponding author address: Eric J. Alfaro, Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR), Universidad de Costa Rica, 11501-2060 San José, Costa Rica. E-mail: erick.alfaro@ucr.ac.cr

Costa Rica

• Land area: Land area:

51,100 km51,100 km22 (8.5% (8.5%

of the total)of the total)

• Total (Sea+Land) Total (Sea+Land)

area: 598,700 area: 598,700

kmkm22

The island is part of the Eastern Tropical Pacific SeascapeProject that includes the Galapagos Islands and Marine Reserve(Ecuador), Coiba National Park (Panama) and the Colombian islands of Malpelo and Gorgona.

Isla del Coco National Park is located in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (5.5ºN, 87ºW), about 500 km offshore of the nearest Costa Rican continental coast.

Project: Knowledge and management of marine and coral reef environments of Isla del Coco Marine Protected Area (P.I.: Dr. Jorge Cortés-4) . Funded by: the French Fund for the World's Environment, the Vice-presidency for Research and Marine Sciences and Limnology Research Center, Universidad de Costa Rica.

• Ocean Dynamic Study around Isla del Coco (Co-PI: Dr. Omar Lizano-1)

• Climatology and interannual variability of atmospheric and oceanic parameters at Isla del Coco (Co-PI: Dr. Eric Alfaro-2)

• Physical-Chemical parameters related to the biodiversity of the coral reefs of Isla del Coco (Co-PI: M.Sc. Jenaro Acuña-3)

• Assesment of the present state, retrospective analysis and long term monitoring of coral reef of Isla del Coco (Co-PI: Dr. Jorge Cortés-4)

• Biodiversity study of coral reef organisms of Isla del Coco (Co-PI: Dr. Jorge Cortés-4)

• Diversity of the plancton associated with the Isla del Coco environments (Co-PI: Dr. Álvaro Morales-5)

4

2

1

5

3

Multidisciplinary Approach...

Precipitación Isla del Coco MJJBN N AN

Niño 1&2 BN 67(6)*** 33(3) 0(0)***FMA N 22(2) 44(4) 33(3)

AN 11(1)** 22(2) 67(6)***χ2 = 11.33**, rs = 0.59***, τ = 0.41*** ( = 0.01 => ***, 0.05 => **, 0.10 => * )

FMA MJJ ASO NDE FMA MJJ ASO NDE FMA MJJ ASO NDEEFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDE

DEF

Niño 1&2

Indic

e P

recip

itacio

n,

Isla

del C

oco

año(-1) año(0) año(+1) r

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Models: CCC1TR, CSI2TR, ECH4TR, GISSTR, HAD2TR, ECH3TR, HAD3TR. IPCC, TAR. Tool: MAGICC/SCENGEN.

Average changesA1B scenario, 20 AOGCMs

Moderate emissions, IPCC(2007)

PRECIS (http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm )

Taylor, M.A, A. Centella, J. Charley, I. Borrajero, A. Bezanilla, J. Campbell, R. Rivero, T.S. Stephenson, F. Whyte & R. Watson. 2007. Glimpses of the future: A Briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean Climate Change Project, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, 24 pp.

SDSM(http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/ )

¡Gracias!

MM5 Numerical Model, Forecast Validation and Data Assimilation

Collaborators: Dr. Jorge Amador, M.Sc. Erick Rivera, B.Sc. Marcela Ulate, B.Sc. Ana Durán and Meteorology Student Blanca Calderón. CIGEFI-UCR

GCMs =>

PRECIS(http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm) SDSM(http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/)

GENERAL OBJECTIVE

- To generate information about the marine ecosystems of Isla del Coco, in order to

improve its management and conservation

SOME SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES:

- Capacity building of the ACMIC personnel: Chemical and Biological sampling. Physical and Biological data adquisition. Early warning of atypical events and conditions. Data and samples basic analysis.

- Generation of plans for future monitoring activities that could help conservation and management.

Rainfall data

Why CC matters in this project?

Some expected CC Impacts (IPCC, AR-4, WG-II, Chaps. 13-Latin America & 16-Small Islands):

• The projected mean warming for Latin America to the end of the century, according to different climate models, ranges from 1 to 4°C for the SRES emissions scenario B2 and from 2 to 6°C for scenario A2 (medium confidence).

• Under future climate change, there is a risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America (high confidence).

• The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas (high confidence).

• Future sustainable development plans should include adaptation strategies to enhance the integration of climate change into development policies (high confidence).

• Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise, and extreme events (very high confidence).

• Climate change is likely to heavily impact coral reefs, fisheries and othermarine-based resources (high confidence).

• New studies confirm previous findings that the effects of climate change on tourism are likely to be direct and indirect, and largely negative (high confidence).