CLIMATIC TRENDS WITH REFERENCE TO SMALL IRRIGATION MANAGEMENT IN NEPAL
Keshav P. Sharma
Farmer Managed Irrigation Systems (FMIS) Promotion Trust
International Seminar on "Irrigation in Local Adaptation and Resilience" 11-12 April 2017
11 April 2017
LOCATIONS
2
!(
!(
!(
!(!(!(
!(!(
!(
!(!(!(
!(
!(
!(
!(!(
!(
!(
KAKANI
RAMPUR
SIMARI
BUTWAL
NUWAKOT
SOKTIMTE
DUMKAULI
TAULIHAWA
OKHALDHUNGA
GAIDA (KANKAI)
SINDHULI GADHI
SIMARA AIRPORT
LUMBINI MANDIR
ILAM TEA ESTATE
JANAKPUR AIRPORT KANYAM TEA ESTATE
KATHMANDU AIRPORT
BHAIRAHAWA (AGRIC)
909
902
727
721
716
707
706
705
704703
1422
1421
1415
1412
1411
1409
1407
1206
1111
1110
1107
1030
1007
1004
Meteorological Stations in Project Area Legend
Precipitation
!( Climate
Elevation
mHigh : 8763.09
Low : 44
0 100 20050 Kilometers
±
River,Location Basin
Area (km2)
Banganga, Taulihawa 187
Girwari, Nawalparasi 52
Likhu, Nuwakot 146
Kamala/Gadauli, Sindhuli 570/25
Biring/Kali, Jhapa 61/26
NATURE OF WATER AVAILABILITY
3
Predicted Low Flow Condition = 500 L/s
Measured Low Flow Condition = 97 L/s
Predicted Low Flow Condition = 1900 L/s
Measured Low Flow Condition = 1020 L/s
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
5
Nepal (1971-2012)
Tmax Tmin Tave
0.11 -0.04 0.025(DHM/NHMRC, 2015)
(IPCC,
2014)
6
y = 0.0012x + 39.681
R² = 9E-05
y = 0.0219x - 38.595
R² = 0.0449
y = 0.0221x - 19.255
R² = 0.3853
y = 0.0271x - 35.257
R² = 0.3614
y = 0.017x - 2.9998
R² = 0.1946
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Te
mp
era
ture
(o
C)
Temperature: Bhairahawa Airport (Stn No. 705)
EXMAX EXMIN Average MinAve MaxAve
7
y = 0.3678x - Ta
R² = 0.1665
y = 0.2291x - Ta
R² = 0.1362
0
50
100
150
200
250
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NU
MB
ER
OF
DA
YS
Hot Days and Cold Days in Bhairahawa Airport
(Station No. 705)
Number of hot days Number of cold days
7 Dec 2016(NSA Terra Satellite, 2016)
TEMPERATURE TRENDS (OC/YEAR)
8
Index
NoLocation Maximum Minimum
Average Extreme Average Extreme Mean
1030 Kathmandu 0.069 0.058 0.033 0.043 0.051
1206 Okhaldhunga 0.058 0.052 0.035 0.000 0.035
909 Simara 0.008 0.005 0.022 -0.011 0.015
1111 Janakpur 0.010 0.020 0.030 -0.020 0.019
705 Bhairahawa 0.017 0.001 0.027 0.022 0.022
PRECIPITATION TRENDS
9
Nepal
Pmax 31 mm/yr
Pmin -42 mm/yr
Pave 0.7 mm/yr
DHM/NHMRC, 2015
(IPCC, 2015)
y = -0.0843x + 1815.4
R² = 1E-05
y = -2.6326x + 6654.5
R² = 0.0124
y = -31.536x + 64941
R² = 0.2605
y = -23.157x + 47858
R² = 0.1942
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)PRECIPITATION: BHAIRAHAWA AIRPORT (STN NO. 705)
Annual Monsoon Recent: Annual Recent: Monsoon
11
12
y = 3.5873x - 4569.1
R² = 0.0189
y = 2.4631x - 2704.6
R² = 0.0097
y = -65.938x + 134916
R² = 0.4561
y = -30.589x + 63639
R² = 0.0929
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m)
PRECIPITATION BELUWA-GIRWARI (STN NO. 0704)
Annual Monsoon Recent: Annual Recent: Monsoon
14
y = -0.811x + 1939.2
R² = 0.0122
y = -0.0777x + 243.29
R² = 0.0022
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
7-day Precipitation during Monsoon: Bhairahawa Airport (Stn. No. 0705)
7-Day Maximum 7-Day Average
15
y = 0.1001x + 39.962
R² = 0.0092
y = 0.4227x - 679.68
R² = 0.0786
y = 0.5423x - 970.15
R² = 0.0817
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NU
MB
ER
OF
DA
YS
RAINLESS PERIOD IN BHAIRAHAWA - ANNUAL
2 consecutive days 7 Consecutive days 15 consecutive days
16
y = -0.0216x + 45.542
R² = 0.0303
y = -0.0191x + 46.557
R² = 0.0071
y = -0.076x + 189.39
R² = 0.0257
y = -0.0698x + 212.22
R² = 0.0094
y = -0.8316x + 1706.3
R² = 0.5116
y = -1.0649x + 2209.7
R² = 0.4126
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
No
. o
f ra
iny
da
ys
PRECIPITATION DAYS: BHAIRAHAWA AIRPORT (STN NO. 0705)
Recent Trends: >10 mm Greater Than 50 mm Greater Than 10 mm
Greater Than 1 mm Recent Trends: >10 mm Recent Trends: >1 mm
EXTREME EVENTS
17
Singeghat irrigation scheme with the highest flood level observed on 27 July 2016.
Q = 566 m3/s
100 year
precipitation
on 30 June-1 July
2015 1 May 2016
in Giruwari
50 Year Flood
RECOMMENDATION: INFORMATION-BASED RESILIENCE
21
Update/Upgrade Reference Station
Involve stakeholders and communities in
Weather/Climate Monitoring
Promote Research
Start
Monitoring
Information: Climate and Weather Information: Real Time, Predictions, Projections
and Long-Term Assessments.
Reduce
Data Gap