Closing the Culture Gap

Presentation by Al FromBaton Rouge, Louisiana

October 2001

www.ndol.org

The Keys to Building a New Democratic Majority

Closing the Cultural Gap

The Key to Breaking the TieIn American Politics

The New Electorate and the New Political Context

What we learned from the 2000 Election

The New Democrat Formula for Closing the Cultural Gap and Breaking the Tie in American PoliticsThe DLC Role

The Parties at Parity

48.4 49.3 5047.9 4849

47

0 0 0 03

505047.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

President Electoral Vote Senate House State Leg Houses

Democrat Republican Tied

Parity in 2000The Tie in American Politics

52.6

42.8 43

49.2 48.445.8

52.4

38

47.9

40.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1932-64 1968-88 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican

The Parties at ParityThe Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics

52 5254

49 49 48 4951

49 49 4945 44

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Democrat Republican

The Parties at ParityThe Tie in the House

The Parties at ParityThe Reasons

The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate

The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing

A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

The New Electorate

PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS

Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------

47

38

3234

2623

8

12

1618

24

28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1980 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Less than $30K More than $75K

Voters’ Family Incomes: 1980 to 2000

18

46

27

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

WorkingClass

Middle Class Upper MidClass

Own Stock

An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters

51

43

34

7

13

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 1996 2000

Less than 30 K More than 75 K

Louisiana Family Incomes

2232

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 1996 2000

Louisiana Family IncomesPercentage of Families Making More than 50 K Per Year

33

42

61

74

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 2000

College Grads Some College

Educational Attainment

Percentage of voters with a college degree

89

81

52

9 1013

07

25

0 28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 2000 2050 Projected

White Black Hispanic Asian

Diversity

7268

70

2729 29

1 1 11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1992 1996 2000

White Black Hispanic Asian

Louisiana Diversity

1

2

1

10

2018

17

10

21

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Cities Suburbs Rural

Democrat Republican Other

The Suburbs RuleIn 2000 Democrats Win Cities; Republicans Win

Suburbs and Rural Areas

(29)

(43)

(28)

7867

88

160

92

57

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1973 Today

Urban Suburban Rural

The Suburban SwingCongressional Seats

38.8

9.2

14.5 14.6

7.5

13.1

8.5

17.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1952 2000

Balt City Balt County PG County Montgomery

From City to SuburbPercentage of Statewide Vote

30 28

1923

26

70 72

8177

74

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980 1984 1992 1996 2000

Union Hshds Non-Union

The Union VoteComing Back But Still Below 1984

26

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 2000

Wired VotersPercentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

-7

89

7 4238

332

164

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Total Const Manuf Ret Trade Fin. Ins.RE

Priv Sectservices

Fed-St-Local Govt

Louisiana: New Jobs 1991-2001In Thousands

Generational Change

In the 2000 Election

Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New Deal Era voters.

The dominant generations are the “skeptical

generations”--the Baby Boomers, GenXers and

GenYers.

40

3033

29

2421 20 20

36

4947

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1992 1996 2000

Conservatives Liberals Moderates

Political Views

46

39

18 18

36

43

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1996 2000

Conservatives Liberals Moderates

The Louisiana ElectoratePolitical Views

4038

42

38 39 393835 35

18

2627

35

32

27272727

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican Independent

Party IdentificationPercentage of Voters

55 5348

29 2934

15 18 18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican Independent

The Louisiana Electorate

Party Identification

Louisiana Party ID Trend

5553 54

48

29 29 28

34

1518 18 18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Democrat Republican Independent

1992 1996 1998 2000

The 2000 Election

15 14

29

68

82

47

85 86

72

32

18

53

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican

The Diminishing Economic Class Divisions

Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

No HS HS Grad Some Col Col Grad Post Grad

The Missing MiddleDemocrats Win Least and Best Educated

49

4442

4042 41

4650

5557

55 56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Under 15K 15-30K 30-50K 50-75K 75-100K Over 100K

Gore Bush

Missing the Mark

Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in 2000

Missing the TargetThe Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000

Income

Education

-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

Post GradCollege GradSome CollegeHigh School GradHS Dropout

Over 100K75 - 100K50 – 75K30 – 50K15 – 30K

Under 15K

responsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with a

Message Matters

If a candidate for President said this, would it have madeyou much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhatless likely, or much less likely to vote for them forPresident?Top Arguments Ranked by “Much more likely”

MuchMoreLikely

More/LessLikely

I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to worktogether in a bipartisan manner to get things done for America.

46 79/15

I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all , demands

government that equips all Americans with the tools they needfor economic success.

41 78/15

I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up andfight no matter what powerful forces might be on the other side– big oil companies, big polluters, big pharmaceuticalcompanies, and big tobacco. This election is about the peoplev. the powerful .

41 70/24

(All Voters)

Message Matters

(Key Voter Categories By Much More Likely

Gore Voters

Bush Voters

Bush Swing

Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44 People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32

The Cultural Gap

National Democratic Margin

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 -1 -10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 -3 -11 -24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 -1 +6 White 81 -1 -3 -12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 -9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24

-3

72

81

51

24

-12-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1996 2000

White Black Hispanic

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin by Race

3

-1

-10

8

16

11

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1992 1996 2000

Men Women

The Cultural Gap

Democratic Margin by Gender

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

WM WW WM WW WM WW WM WW WM WW

Democrat Republican Other

The Cultural Gap

Vote Among White Men and Women

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

The Cultural Gap

Democratic Margin By Marital Status

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 -1 -2 -9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 -3 Child under 18 39 +2 +7 -7 +14 No 61 +8 +4 +4 Married/Child 31 -15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29) +10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 -8 +11

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin on Guns and Abortion

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000

Gun Owner 48 (37) -13 -25 +12

No 52 (63) +17 +19 -2

Abortion

Always Lgl 23 (34) +38 (25) +48 +45 +3

Mostly Lgl 33 (29) +11 (35) +22 +20 +2

Mostly Illeg 27 (23) -30 (25) -25 -40 +15

Always Illeg 13 (9) -39 (12) -45 -52 +7

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin by Religion

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Attend Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42) -12 -17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Protestant 54 -9 -9 -14 +5 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 Jewish 4 +69 +62 +60 +2 White Prot 56 (of

whites) -14 -17 -29 +12

White Cath 25 (of whites)

+5 +7 -7 +14

The Cultural Gap

Democratic Margin by Ideology, Party and Role of Government

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Liberal 20 +54 +67 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 -48 -51 -64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 -1 Republican 35 -63 -67 -83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 -2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 -22 (55) -30 (52) -46 +16

The Swing States

Swing States GOP Base

Demo Base

Louisiana: Keys To Victory

Democratic Margin by Race

1992 1996 1998 2000

All +6 +12 +32 -7

Whites -22 -24 +11 -46

Blacks +80 +90 +79 +86

Louisiana: Keys to Victory

Democratic Margin

6

-22

80

12

-24

90

32

11

79

-7

-46

86

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1992 1996 1998 2000

All White Black

Louisiana: Keys to Victory

Democratic Margin by Philosophy

1996 1998 2000

All +12 +32 -7

Lib +74 +68 +51

Mod +29 +55 -6

Con -39 -11 -50

Louisiana: Keys to Victory

Democratic Margin by Philosophy

12

74

29

-39

32

68

55

-11-7

51

-6

-50-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1996 1998 2000

All Lib Mod Con

Louisiana: Keys to Victory

Democratic Margin by Party

1992 1996 1998 2000

All +6 +12 +32 -7

Dem +42 +67 +74 +50

Rep -71 -73 -46 -86

Ind +11 -11 +18 -30

Louisiana: Keys to Victory

Democratic Margin by Party

6

42

-71

11 12

67

-73

-11

32

74

-46

18

-7

50

-86

-30

-100-80-60-40-20

020406080

1992 1996 1998 2000

All Dem Rep Ind

The New Democrat Approach

What is a New Democrat?

New Democrats are the modernizers of the Democratic Party

We further our party’s enduring values with new and innovative ideas

Core Principles

TheNew Democrat

Philosophy

Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook

Empowering Government

Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values

The New Democrat Philosophy

America’s Basic Bargain

Opportunity for All Responsibility from All Community of All

Where New Democrats Stand

for economic growth and opportunityfor fiscal responsibilityfor work, not welfarefor strengthening familiesfor preventing crime and punishing criminalsfor non-bureaucratic, empowering governmentfor fostering a new sense of community and an

ethic of mutual responsibility by asking citizens to give something back to their country

12

52

34

12

50

35

15

53

30

14

54

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Solve Problems Equip People Stay Out

1997 1998 1999 2000

Role of GovernmentWhat is the Proper Role of the Federal Government?

17

56

24

16

60

2116

63

1819

55

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Social Programs Spur Growth Stay Out

1997 1998 1999 2000

Government and the EconomyWhat Role Should the Federal Government Play in the Economy?

Closing the Cultural GapLessons From the Clinton Victories

Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution

Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare

Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big GovernmentSupport Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents

Raise KidsSupport a Strong National DefenseAvoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like

Abortion or Guns

The Winning Coalition in 2004

A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century

The Democratic Base and Beyond Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban and Suburban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and “Rising Learning Class”

The DLC Role

Developing the Next Generation of New Democrat Ideas

Developing and Helping the Next Generation of New Democrat Leaders

The DLC Structure

• The Democratic Leadership Council

• The Progressive Policy Institute

• Congressional New Democrat Coalitions

• State Legislative Caucuses

• State Legislative Advisory Board

• Statewide Elected Officials Network

• Local Elected Officials Network

The DLC Leadership

Senator Evan Bayh, ChairmanRepresentative Ellen Tauscher, Vice ChairLt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy TownsendState Representative Antonio RileyCity Councilman Carroll Robinson

Al From, Founder and CEOBruce Reed, President

DLC Products and Services

• Blueprint

• www.ndol.org

• New Dem Daily and Weekly Fax

• Leadership Training

• National Conversation – Networking

• State and Local Playbook

Ideas and Political Analysis

Lifting the Debate

• Assuring National and Homeland Security• Restoring Prosperity• Redeeming the fundamental promise of America by

giving every American child a quality public education• Modernizing and Strengthening Medicare and Social

Security to Prepare for the Baby Boom Retirement• Providing Millions More Americans the chance to

Serve by expanding National Service

Beyond Petty Partisanship: New National Priorities

The Bottom LineIn Today’s Times Message Matters More

The Next Progressive Majority will be built around ideas and values, not interest groups.How we frame our message is likely to be the difference between victory and defeat. The best government is the best politics. If we have good ideas that tend to the needs of ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the politics will take care of itself.