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PETROBRAS 1 CLSA Investors' Forum 2006 Almir Barbassa CFO and Investor Relations Officer September, 14 2006
Transcript
Page 1: "CLSA Investors' Forum 2006"

PETROBRAS

1

CLSA Investors' Forum 2006

Almir BarbassaCFO and Investor Relations Officer

September, 14 2006

Page 2: "CLSA Investors' Forum 2006"

PETROBRAS

2

The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.

Cautionary Statement for US investors

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.

Cautionary Statement

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Petrobras at glance

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4

309416427

593614624660

809908919945

1.2671.4481.484

SinopecRepsolStatoil

ENILukoil*Yukos*

ConocoPhillips

PetrobrasTotal

Chevron TexacoPetrochina*

ShellBP

ExxonMobil

6.3434.026

2.9982.7472.708

2.2022.1952.114

1.2231.1751.139

524296

2.275

XOMRDS

SinopecBP

TOTCOP

PetroChinaCVX

PetrobrasYukos

RepsolLukoil

ENI**Statoil8,0

9,010,1

11,512,212,212,313,114,214,615,1

19,620,8

32,7

RepsolShell

StatoilENIBP

TotalSinopec

Chevron TexacoConocoPhillips

PetrobrasExxonMobilPetrochina*

Yukos*Lukoil*

3,33,84,3

6,89,4

11,111,511,812,113,0

17,618,5

20,122,4

RepsolSinopec*

StatoilENI

ConocoPhillips

Total

ShellPetrobras

Chevron Texaco

Yukos*

BPPetrochina*

Lukoil*

ExxonMobil

Publicly traded peer comparisonProven reserves (SEC - billion boe) – Dec. 2005 Oil and gas production (million boe) - 2005

Reserve life (years) – Dec. 2005 Refining capacity (thousand bpd) - 2005

Source: Evaluate Energy and Company Reports

7th

5th

9th

7th

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PETROBRAS

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Liderar o mercado de petróleo, gás natural e derivados na América Latina, atuando como empresa integrada de energia, com expansão seletiva

da petroquímica e da atividade internacional.

Growth ProfitabilityGrowth ProfitabilitySocial and Environmental Social and Environmental

ResponsibilityResponsibility

Consolidate and increase

competitive advantages in

the Brazilian and South American

oil and oil products market

Develop and lead the domestic

natural gas market and perform in an integrated manner

in the gas and power market in South America

Selectively expand

international activities in an

integrated manner with the

Company’s business

Selectively expand interest

in the petrochemicals

market

Expand participation in biofuels market, lead the domestic

biodiesel production and increase

participation in the ethanol business

Operational, management, technological and human resources excellence

Lead the Latin American oil, natural gas, oil products and biofuels market, working as an integrated energy company, with selective expansion in petrochemical, renewable energy and

international activities.

Corporate Strategy

Corporate Strategy

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6

Energy

Industry

Imported OilProducts

ImportedOil

Imported Gas

International OilProduction

LNG

H - Bio

DomesticNatural GasProduction

Biodiesel Oil Productssold in Brazil

InternationalSales

OtherRenewables

Infrastructure

Petrochemical Plants

Brazilian OilProduction

Throughputin Brazil

InternationalRefining

Integration of the Company's Activities

Ethanol

6

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7

Vertical Integration ComparisonMajors Average *

2,735

3,176

4,793

4,329

1,630

1,579

National Oil Companies Average **

Petrobras2,296

2,114

Product Sales (thous. bpd)

Refining (thous. bpd)Production (thous. boed)

* Majors: BP, Exxon, Total, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Conoco and Repsol-YPF ** NOIC: PEMEX, PDVSA, Saudi Amraco, KPC, Pertamina and Sonatrach

*** 2004 figures, except for Petrobras (2005)Source: PIW Intelligence and Petrobras

2,217

3,400Year 2011

2011: New Refinery will add 200

thous. bpd capacity2010:

Pasadena Refinery revamp concluded – processing 70

thous. bpd of heavy oil

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8

Note: Includes International

31.0

12.41.0

1.0

49.3

23.07.5

3.32.31.8

E&P Downstream G&EPetrochemical Distribution Corporate

9%4%

3% 26%

56%

3%

Business Plan 2007-2011US$ 87.1 billion

86%

14%

Brazil International

US$ 12.1 bi

US$ 75.0 bi

Investment Plan

49,3

23,0

7,53,32,21,8

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9

Sources Uses

(*)86.7

12.6

2004-2010Financing

Cash Flow

(US$ 99.3 billion)

87.1

12.2

2004-2010Debt Amortization

Capex

(US$ 99.3 billion)

• Accrued Economic Profit (2006-2015): US$ 83.4 billion (US$ 53.9 until 2011).

Financial Targets - Sources & Uses

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Our Business

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Petrobras & Partners

Other Companies

Exploration & Production – Overview of E&P in Brazil

•160.5 thousand km2 (Petrobras + Partners)•186 thousand km2 (other Companies)•Total: 346.7 thousand km2.

Exploratory Area (Nov/2005)

•US$ 5.73/boe (2005)Lifting Cost

•US$ 3.45/boe (2003 – 2005) – SPEF&D Cost

•2,030 thousand boed (1,754 thousand bpd oil) 5 - year CAGR of 5%.

Production (1H06)

•Proven reserves of 13.23 billion boe (SPE) or 10.58 billion boe (SEC)•Reserve life of 19.7 years (SPE) and 15.7 (SEC)•Internal Reserve Replacement of 131.1% (SPE) and 101.3% (SEC)

Reserves (at December 31, 2005)

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54,3% 53,1% 51,5% 50,5%

43,8%40,5% 39,7%

34,3%30,0% 29,7%

25,0%20,3%

12,9%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

Petr

obras

She

ll

T

otal

CNOOC

Stat

oil

BP

Exx

onMob

il

L

ukoil

Chev

ron

Cono

coPhillip

s

R

epsol-Y

PF

P

etroC

hina

S

inopec

Undeveloped Reserves / Total Reserves* (2005)

• Strong investments to optimize the development of Petrobras’ proven reserves, aiming light oil production and a minimum reserve/production ratio of 15 years.

• Petrobras had a 55% success ratio for our exploration wells during 2005.

* Source: Evaluate Energy

Exploration & Production – Reserves

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13

2 , 3 7 42 , 8 1 2

5 5 1

7 2 4

7 4 2

1 8 5

2 7 8

3 8 3

2 0 1 5

F o r e c a s t

1 , 6 8 4 1 , 8 8 01 , 5 4 0 1 , 4 9 3

2 5 0 2 6 5 2 7 4

2 8 9

1 3 3

1 6 1 1 6 81 6 3

8 5

1 0 1

9 49 6

2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 T a r g e t 2 0 0 6

O i l a n d N G L - B r a z i l N a t u r a l G a s - B r a z i l

O i l a n d N G L - I n t e r n a c i o n a l N a t u r a l G a s - I n t e r n a c i o n a l

2,036 2,020 2,217 2,403

3,493

4,556

7.8% p.a.

7.5% p.a.

T a r g e t 2 0 1 1

Exploration & Production - Production Targets

Oil & NGL and Natural Gas (Thousand boed)

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14

1,493

1,684

2004 2005

P - 48Caratinga

Capacity 150,000 bpdFebruary 05

FPSO Marlim SulCapacity 100,000 bpd

June 04

P - 43Barracuda

Capacity 150,000 bpdDecember 04

∆ 12.8%Crude oil in Brazil

Main projects that contributed to the production growth in 2005

Exploration & Production – 2005 Production

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1.880

1.684

2005A 2006E

Crude oil in Brazil∆ 11.6%

P - 50Albacora Leste

Capacity 180,000 bpdApril 2006

P - 50Albacora Leste

Capacity 180,000 bpdApril 2006

P - 34 Jubarte Phase 1

Capacity 60,000 bpdOctober 2006

P - 34 Jubarte Phase 1

Capacity 60,000 bpdOctober 2006

FPSO CapixabaGolfinho Mod. 1

Capactiy 100,000 bpdMay 2006

FPSO CapixabaGolfinho Mod. 1

Capactiy 100,000 bpdMay 2006

PiranemaCapacity 20,000 bpd

December 2006

PiranemaCapacity 20,000 bpd

December 2006

Main Projects that will contribute to the production growth in 2006

• P-50 is currently producing 55,000 bpd and should reach its production peak by the end of the year.

• FPSO Capixaba is currently producing 41,000 bpd and peak production is expected by 1H07.

• P-34 is being adapted in the Vitória shipyard and should start-up operation in October.

• Piranema was constructed in China (Yantai Raffles shipyard) and is currently in the Netherlands concluding its conversion. Production should begin in December.

Exploration & Production – 2006 Production

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16

2.374

2.195

2.0611.979

1.880

1.684

2.368

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2.200

2.400

2.600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Parque dasConchas*** 100,000 bpd

2011

Parque dasConchas*** 100,000 bpd

2011

Albacora LesteP-50

180,000 bpdApril/2006

Albacora LesteP-50

180,000 bpdApril/2006

JubarteFase 1P-34

60,000 bpdOct/2006

JubarteFase 1P-34

60,000 bpdOct/2006

Marlim LesteP-53*

180,000 bpd2009

Marlim LesteP-53*

180,000 bpd2009

FPSO CapixabaGolfinho Mod. 1

100,000 bpdMay 2006

FPSO CapixabaGolfinho Mod. 1

100,000 bpdMay 2006

Frade100,000 bpd

2009

Frade100,000 bpd

2009

RoncadorP-52

180,000 bpd2007

RoncadorP-52

180,000 bpd2007

RoncadorP-54

180,000 bpd2007

RoncadorP-54

180,000 bpd2007

Marlim SulModule 2

P-51180,000 bpd

2008

Marlim SulModule 2

P-51180,000 bpd

2008Piranema

20,000 bpdOct 2006

Piranema20,000 bpdOct 2006

JubartePhase 2

P-57180,000 bpd

2010

JubartePhase 2

P-57180,000 bpd

2010

Espadarte Mod 2FPSO Rio de Janeiro100,000 bpd

2007

Espadarte Mod 2FPSO Rio de Janeiro100,000 bpd

2007

ESS-130Golfinho Mod III ****

(FPSO)100,000 bpd

2008

ESS-130Golfinho Mod III ****

(FPSO)100,000 bpd

2008

Golfinho Mod 2 FPSO Cid. de

Vitória100,000 bpd

2007

Golfinho Mod 2 FPSO Cid. de

Vitória100,000 bpd

2007

* In the previous plan, P-53 was scheduled to 2008** In the previous plan, P-55 was scheduled to 2010

RoncadorP-55**

180,000 bpd2011

RoncadorP-55**

180,000 bpd2011

Thous. bpd

*** Abalone, Ostra, Argonauta and Nautilus (former BC10): Petrobras share 35%**** In the previous plan, Golfinho Mod. 3 was scheduled to 2010

Exploration & Production - Main ProjectsBrazilian Oil & NGL production

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4 new platforms will provide additional production capacity of 560,000 bpd

FPSO Cidade VitóriaThis leased FPSO with capacity of 100,000 bpd is currently being constructed by Saipem in Dubai. It is scheduled to start operation May/2007 in the Golfinho Field.

FPSO Cidade Rio de JaneiroWith a capacity of 100,000 bpd, this leased unit is being converted by Modec in Singapore. Production will begin May/2007in the Espadarte field.

P-54Petrobras constructed this platform in the Jurong shipyard, in Singapore, and currently it is in Mauá-Jurong shipyard, in Niterói (RJ). It should be operating by October/2007 in the Roncador field with a capacity of 180,000 bpd.

P-52This platform was constructed by Petrobras, in Singapore (Keppel Felsshipyard) and will have the capacity to produce 180,000 bpd. Currently it is in Angra dos Reis (RJ) concluding its construction to operate in the Roncador field (December/2007). P-52

Cidade Rio de Janeiro

Exploration & Production – Projects for 2007

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2.374

2.812

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

2011 2015

• To sustain production growth, 15 large projects will be implemented between 2011 to 2015. The highlights are:

Oil Production in Brazil (Thous. bbl)

Exploration & Production - 2011-2015 Main Brazilian Projects

Main Projects

Baleia Azul

Cachalote and Baleia Franca

Roncador Mód. 4

Marlim Sul Mód. 4

Papa-Terra Mód. 1 e 2

Roncador P-55

Marlim Sul P-56

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200520042003

66

41

25

Total

90

43

47

Total

23

4

19

International

4642Offshore

8764Total

4122Onshore

TotalBrazil

Owned Rigs: 31

Leased: 56

• Petrobras’ leasing contracts are long term, averaging a 5 years length;• In 2005, 18 offshore drilling rigs were owned by Petrobras;• In August 2005, Petrobras renovated 24 drilling rigs contracts.• In July 2006, Petrobras signed contracts worth R$ 10.5 billion for the charter of six drilling units:

• 4 rigs will operate in water depths of up to 2,000 meters (seven-year term contract, renewable for further seven years);• 2 rigs will operate at depths down to 2,400 meters (units chartered for 5 years, renewable for the same period);

Exploration & Production - Petrobras’ Drilling Rigs

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61%

13%

12%

14%

RefiningPipelines & Terminals TransportShip TransportPetrochemical

US$ 14.2

US$ 3.2

US$ 3.0

US$ 2.8

US$ 23.1 billion in the downstream segment… ...of which US$ 14.2 billion in refining

• Aggregating value to our heavy oil and producing diesel and gasoline according to international standards.

Downstream – 2007-2011 Investments

31%

19%

6% 26%

18%

Gasoline and Diesel Quality Expansion

HSE Conversion

Others

US$ 2.5US$ 0.9

US$ 4.4

US$ 2.7

US$ 3.7

Page 21: "CLSA Investors' Forum 2006"

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21

New Refinery in Pernambuco• Investment: US$ 2.5 billion

• Throughput capacity: 200 thousand heavy oil barrels (50% Petrobras oil / 50% PDVSA oil)

New Refinery in the USA• Petrobras has acquired 50% of the Passadena Refinery System Inc. (PRSI), located in Texas, USA.

• Total Investment: US$ 370 million

• The refinery, which already has a capacity of 100,000 bbl/day, will be upgraded to handle 70,000 bbl/day of heavy oil and feedstock (including Marlim field’s production)

Rio de Janeiro Petrochemical Complex• Total Investment: US$ 6.5 billion

• Expected Annual Production:

• 1.3 million tons of Ethane;

• 900,000 tons of propane;

• 360,000 tons of benzene and 700,000 tons of p-xylene.

Downstream – New Refineries

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Between 2007 and 2011, investment of US$ 2.8 billion.

10 PSV (Platform Supply Vessels)

1 FSO (Floating, Storage & Offloading)

PROMEF 16 vessels

Fleet Modernization and Expansion Program (PROMEF): 26 vessels

Main Projects

Transportation – Fleet renovation

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Over 75% of Petrobras’ current natural gas production is associated gas

Investments to develop production of non-associated gas

Lack of infrastructure to develop Brazilian market

Risk of gas supply failure due to abnormalities

Total investment (Petrobras and partners) in Brazilian natural gas chain

adds up to US$ 22.1 billion

LNG to provide flexibility to mitigate such risk

Challenges Business Plan 2007-2011 Targets

Natural Gas – Main Challenges

Page 24: "CLSA Investors' Forum 2006"

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Natural Gas – Main Projects

Northeast Gas Pipeline NetworkUS$ 6.5 billion investments between

2007-2011

Extension of Gasbol Southern Segment (LNG distribution)

Gasbel ExtensionSoutheast Gas Pipeline NetworkNG infra-structure maintenanceUrucu-Coari-Manaus Gas PipelineGasene – Northern SegmentLNG – Liquefied Natural Gas

Main Projects

• Natural gas prices to accompany international differentials to oil products.

ConstructionCurrentUnder evaluationGASBOL

Page 25: "CLSA Investors' Forum 2006"

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25

Petrobras in the World

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PETROBRAS

26

International – Business Strategies

• Add value to Petrobras’ heavy oil production ;

•Seek leadership position as an integrated energy company in Latin America;

• Expand Petrobras’ Focus Areas through businesses that contribute to growth and portfolio diversification;

• Expand operations in Gulf of Mexico and West Africa;

•Accelerate natural gas reserves monetization ;

• Make the Petrobras brand international and valuable.

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70.2%

24.8%

0.8%

1.7%0.8%1.7%

E&P Refining and Marketing Petrochemical Gas & EnergyDistribution Corporate

US$ 12.1 billion Distribution by Geographic Area

3,1

1,41,4

70% will be directed to the E&P

3,1

1,41,4

28%

16%

23%

33%

South America AfricaNorth America Others(*)

3.3

4.02.0

2.8

(*) Including investiments in Angola under consideration

Investments in E&P accompanied by growth in refining investiments

International – Investments 2007-2011

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International – Latin America

Activities in 9 countries: Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Colombia :• First oil production abroad (1972) and 3rd private producer• 6 production blocks, 11 exploration blocks and gas stations

Bolivia :• Natural Gas exports to Brazil (up to 30 MMm3/d)

Uruguay :• Natural Gas distribution and gas stations

Highlights:

Mexico :• Service Contracts – Cuervito & Fronterizo blocks

Venezuela :• 4 assets in production and 2 in exploration

Argentina :• Exploration, production, refining and distribution

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29

Participation in 287 blocks5 production fields1 field in development (Cottonwood)3 discoveries (Cascade, Chinook and Sant Malo)

International – North America

50% stake in Pasadena Refiniry

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30

International – West Africa

2,000m

1,000m

2,000m

1,000m

6 blocks (1 in production)

Operator in prolific Block 18 with 30% stake

Start up / Production Peak:AGBAMI:

- First oil: 2008 / Peak: 250,000 bpd in 2009 (total)AKPO:

- First oil: 2008 / Peak: 175,000 bpd in 2009 (total)Petrobras stake: from 70,000 to 100,000 bpd

Operator of new Block OPL 315 with stake of 45%

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31

Recent Results

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32

9.951

18.268

22.174

34.489

62.256

13.634

23.277

27.727

40.904

73.834

Net Income

OperatingProfit

EBITDA

COGS

Net Revenue

1H05 1H06

37%

R$

Mill

ion

• Net income growth was supported by a 7% increase in the domestic production of oil and NGL´s and higher international oil prices.

• Operating cash flow (EBITDA) generates sufficient resources to meet the Company’s investment plan, while reducing debt.

19%

25%

27%

19%

Recent Results – Income Statement 1H05 vs. 1H06

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33

486 527432 451

54 76

0

200

400

600

1 H 2 0 0 5 1 H 2 0 0 6

Exports Imports Net Exports

Thou

sand

bpd

2006 includes undergoing exports

Recent Results – Net exports of oil and oil products

• Net exports growth limited by:• Production stability due to scheduled stoppages (2Q06);• Domestic gasoline consumption increase due to ethanol reduction (mix

reduced from 25% to 20%);• Oil inventories stored in new production units.

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34

Petrobras’ Leverage Ratio

(1)Includes debt contracted through leasing contracts of R$ 3.300 million on December 31, 2005, and R$ 4.021 million on December 31, 2004.(2)Total debt - cash and cash equivalents

18%

26%

32%

24%

20%

28%

19%19% 23%

26%

6/30/2005 9/30/2005 12/31/2005 3/31/2006 6/30/2006

Net Debt/Net CapitalizationShort-Term Debt/Total Debt

R$ million 06/30/2006 06/30/2005

Short Term debt (1) 12.213 9.645

Long Term Debt (1) 31.306 40.866

Total Debt 43.519 50.511

Cash and Cash Equivalents 22.713 17.195

Net debt (2) 20.806 33.316

Recent Results – Leverage

• Net Debt/Net Capitalization was 14 p.p. lower than reported in the sameperiod last year, refleting long term financing amortization and higher cashposition.

• Increase in the short-term debt due to reclassification adjustments from longterm to short term (debts with lower than 12 months to maturity).

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35

1H06 1H05(=) Net Cash from Operating Activities 21.509 14.731 (-) Cash used in Cap. Expend. (12.660) (11.061) (=) Free Cash Flow 8.849 3.670 (-) Cash used in Financing and Dividends (9.553) (6.462) Financing (1.971) (1.574) Dividends (7.582) (4.888) (=) Net Cash Generated in the Period (704) (2.792) Cash at the Beginning of Period 23.417 19.987 Cash at the End of Period 22.713 17.195

R$ million

As of January 1, 2005, the Special Purpose Companies whose activities are directly or indirectly controlled by Petrobras were included in the Consolidated Financial Statements, as per CVM Instruction No. 408/2004.

• R$ 5.179 million increase in Free Cash Flow.

Recent Results – Consolidated Cash Flow Statement

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36

Market Capitalization

15,530,9

42,0

74,394,1

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 8/31/2006

US$

bilh

ões

Petrobras’ Market Cap increased 6x since 2002

Page 37: "CLSA Investors' Forum 2006"

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37

Final Remarks

“Brazil (our main market) is self-sufficient in a period of relative oil scarcity and increasing prices”

Few industrialized countries are self-sufficient in crude oil

Global dependence on oil and natural gas

There are no financial restrictions for the

accomplishment of the goals

Technical and managing capacity for the execution of

oil and natural gas production projects

“Exploratory portfolio and proven reserves will reduce the vulnerability of natural gas in a few years”

Page 38: "CLSA Investors' Forum 2006"

PETROBRAS

QUESTION AND ANSWERSESSION

Visit our website: www.petrobras.com.br/ri/english

For further information please contact:

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A – PETROBRAS

Investor Relations Department

E-mail: [email protected]

Av. República do Chile, 65 - 22nd floor

20031-912 – Rio de Janeiro, RJ

(55-21) 3224-1510 / 3224-9947


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