The Valuations Our research focused on applying a diverse range of methodologies to gauge whether the current market valuation is realistic and sustainable. The graph below shows the various valuation ranges from the various methodologies used. The resulting range of share prices is very wide from $84.30 (in the case of a conservative hybrid DCF approach) to $310.87 (in the case of the market approach using earnings multiples). Most valuations though are below the current market value. We decided that the most realistic valuation is the hybrid DCF approach because that shows the intrinsic value of the company. The target price per share of $130.89 was chosen and it is based on a more relaxed hybrid DCF approach. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL , Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Coverage Initiation Report Recent Price: $279.00 Market Data Market Cap. (bln) $8.50 Enterprise Value (bln) $8.10 Fully Diluted Shares Trailing P/E (ttm) 48.58 Forward P/E 33.13 PEG Ratio (5 yr exp) 2.00 Enterprise Value/EBITDA 22.32 Balance Sheet Total Cash (mil) $349.6 Total Cash Per Share $11.26 Total Debt (mil) $3.78 Total Debt/Equity 0.47 Current Ratio 3.30 Book Value Per Share 26.09 *Data above as of Apr 3, 2011 SELL Target Price: $131 Mihai Mazilu Company Overview Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates restaurants in 35 states throughout the United States, Ontario, Canada and London, UK. The restaurants serve a focused menu of tacos, burritos, salads and burrito bowls, made using fresh ingredients. The chain is focused on trying to find the highest quality ingredients to make great tasting food; on recruiting and retaining top performing people to ensure that the restaurant experience provided is exceptional. The company’s motto is “Food With Integrity”, and of the food served inside restaurants 100% of the pork, 100% of the chicken, and about 60% of the beef is naturally raised . Beta: 0.86 52-Week Chg. 129.67% 52-Week High $278.00 52-Week Low $114.87 50-Day Moving Avg. $255.35 Opinion About the Current Market Valuation As shown in the analysis, Chipotle Mexican Grill is, by most methodologies used, overvalued. Chipotle Mexican Grill is a top performer and an innovator in the field of fast food. It managed to take a very simple culinary concept—the burrito—and build an assembly line around it and thus create a easy to customize and easy to deliver product. It also managed to create a very dynamic and scalable staffing structure, which allows it to serve record numbers of customers in each location and to easily expand. Despite this, there are however some serious headwinds to be considered, which may seriously challenge the current market valuation: The expected high growth (13% yearly increase in the number of restaurants in the next five years), will put serious pressure on the margins. Inflation in the price of the food commodities will also put additional pressures on the margins. Chipotle plans to expand its business by creating an Asian concept, based on a very similar business model. This creates the risk of spreading resources too thin. New marketing and fixed capital money are needed for the new concept, and would most probably distract the company from its focus on the already successful burrito concept. The management at Chipotle is very skeptical about international expansion. In the medium to long run, it may be missing very important growth opportunities that may put it at a disadvantage to the competition. It may also, over the same horizon, limit the gains related to foreign currency conversions (considering the ongoing devaluation is the US Dollar) Reducing the proportion of undocumented laborers used in the restaurant locations, may in the short to medium term, put additional pressure on the margins. $84.30 $76.25 $95.54 $171.53 $236.15 $114.87 $130.89 $184.38 $310.87 $171.53 $236.15 $278.00 Current, $274.00 $0.00 $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00 $500.00 $600.00 $700.00 Price per Share
Transcript
The Valuations
Our research focused on applying a diverse range of methodologies to gauge whether the current
market valuation is realistic and sustainable.
The graph below shows the various valuation ranges from the various methodologies used. The
resulting range of share prices is very wide from $84.30 (in the case of a conservative hybrid DCF
approach) to $310.87 (in the case of the market approach using earnings multiples). Most
valuations though are below the current market value.
We decided that the most realistic valuation is the hybrid DCF approach because that shows the
intrinsic value of the company. The target price per share of $130.89 was chosen and it is based on
a more relaxed hybrid DCF approach.
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL , Inc.
(NYSE: CMG)
Coverage Initiation Report
Recent Price: $279.00
Market Data
Market Cap. (bln) $8.50
Enterprise Value (bln) $8.10
Fully Diluted Shares
Trailing P/E (ttm) 48.58
Forward P/E 33.13
PEG Ratio (5 yr exp) 2.00
Enterprise Value/EBITDA 22.32
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mil) $349.6
Total Cash Per Share $11.26
Total Debt (mil) $3.78
Total Debt/Equity 0.47
Current Ratio 3.30
Book Value Per Share 26.09
*Data above as of Apr 3, 2011
SELL Target Price: $131
Mihai Mazilu
Company Overview Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates
restaurants in 35 states throughout
the United States, Ontario, Canada
and London, UK.
The restaurants serve a focused
menu of tacos, burritos, salads and
burrito bowls, made using fresh
ingredients. The chain is focused on
trying to find the highest quality
ingredients to make great tasting
food; on recruiting and retaining top
performing people to ensure that the
restaurant experience provided is
exceptional.
The company’s motto is “Food With
Integrity”, and of the food served
inside restaurants 100% of the
pork, 100% of the chicken, and
about 60% of the beef is naturally
raised .
Beta: 0.86
52-Week Chg. 129.67%
52-Week High $278.00
52-Week Low $114.87
50-Day Moving Avg. $255.35
Opinion About the Current Market Valuation
As shown in the analysis, Chipotle Mexican Grill is, by most methodologies used, overvalued.
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a top performer and an innovator in the field of fast food. It managed to
take a very simple culinary concept—the burrito—and build an assembly line around it and thus
create a easy to customize and easy to deliver product. It also managed to create a very dynamic
and scalable staffing structure, which allows it to serve record numbers of customers in each
location and to easily expand.
Despite this, there are however some serious headwinds to be considered, which may seriously
challenge the current market valuation:
The expected high growth (13% yearly increase in the number of restaurants in the next five
years), will put serious pressure on the margins.
Inflation in the price of the food commodities will also put additional pressures on the margins.
Chipotle plans to expand its business by creating an Asian concept, based on a very similar
business model. This creates the risk of spreading resources too thin. New marketing and fixed
capital money are needed for the new concept, and would most probably distract the company
from its focus on the already successful burrito concept.
The management at Chipotle is very skeptical about international expansion. In the medium to
long run, it may be missing very important growth opportunities that may put it at a
disadvantage to the competition. It may also, over the same horizon, limit the gains related to
foreign currency conversions (considering the ongoing devaluation is the US Dollar)
Reducing the proportion of undocumented laborers used in the restaurant locations, may in the
short to medium term, put additional pressure on the margins.
$84.30 $76.25 $95.54
$171.53
$236.15
$114.87
$130.89
$184.38
$310.87
$171.53
$236.15
$278.00 Current, $274.00
$0.00
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
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Delia Mazilu, Mihai Mazilu Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Coverage Initiation Report
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Company overview Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States, Toronto, Canada and in London, United Kingdom. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 1,084 restaurants. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Denver, Colorado. Chipotle experienced the greatest share increase among fast casual players in 2009 appealing to consumers’ growing demand for fresh fast food. Chipotle’s philosophy is “food with integrity”, meaning it sources the highest-quality ingredients that are grown or raised with respect for the environment, animals or the people who grow them. Chipotle also believes that food served fast does not have to be what is known as traditional fast food in America – greasy, unhealthy or low quality. Chipotle has succeeded by emphasizing freshness and customization. All items are made to order and are cooked from raw ingredients, rather than arriving frozen at each outlet.
Market and Competitors Chipotle operates in the space defined as “fast casual”, part of the fast food industry. This segment is essentially composed by restaurants where patrons pay before eating. In the US alone, fast food brought in $184.00 billion in 2010 and is expected to grow at a stable, albeit slow, growth rate of 2.5% for next 5 years. This growth is spurred by ethnic and specialty markets. Over 300,000 business report activity in this space. Key drivers of this industry are: reduced consumer
spending increased health consciousness, increased
competition from full service restaurants and consolidation. Competitive pressure and declining demand are forcing companies to consolidate their operations and streamline employment. Industry margins have fallen or, at best remaining flat, because of lower sale volumes, customers opting for value menu items (thin margin), high levels of price competition as the industry is reaching saturation and steadily increasing raw material prices.
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In building our valuation model, we considered Chipotle in the context of their industry. We selected a group containing a variety of fast growing smaller competitors, positioned to serve a trendier, healthier consumer, scaling down from full service restaurants. We were also compelled to include industry giants like McDonald’s and Yum! Brands, because they account for such a large portion of their shared competitive landscape. Buffalo Wild Wings, the number two fast casual chain, also experienced strong growth, with 90 new units in 2009 and a strong focus on chicken wings, beer, and sports. The company also has a strong financial position, with no debt. The chain implements strategies tailored to the specifics of the community each restaurant is located in. Areas with a higher concentration of families will offer a children’s night, while others will focus on emphasizing drawing consumers in to watch sporting events on television. Panera Bread: The third player in fast casual dining also saw moderate success during a year that was very difficult for many of its competitors. Rather than discounting, as many fast food operators chose to do, Panera focused on innovation and quality and therefore achieved better sales results. Among improvements, for example, it used better product management to reduce the amount of lettuce it was using. The company has been able to succeed in a declining economy through gaining traffic from consumers trading down from full-service restaurants and new menu items target more heath conscious patrons. McDonald’s: The leading fast food company has increased its share by appealing to young people, while remaining a destination for families. The Big Mac and fries remain the core of the company’s growth strategy, but that is supplemented by continuous innovation that includes affordable snack options, the dollar value menu and premium coffee. As a response to the negative publicity associated with the perceived role of its hamburgers and fries in ruining the American diet, McDonald’s Corp launched a line of salads and other healthy items in order to address consumers’ desire to eat better. In 2009, the company remained committed to innovation and value. To appeal to the growing number of full-service customers who were trading down to fast food, McDonald’s introduced the Angus burger in July 2009, a premium burger experience at an affordable price. California Pizza Kitchen: This company's cookeries are putting a West Coast twist on an old favorite. California Pizza Kitchen (CPK) operates a chain of about 265 casual-dining restaurants that specialize in gourmet pizzas featuring unique topping combinations. The restaurants are found in more than 30 states and about a dozen other countries; more than 200 of the locations are company-owned. Like many other dining operators, the company has struggled with declining sales during recent years due largely to the recession, high unemployment, and the effect of the mortgage crisis in its core markets in California and Florida. CPK responded by pulling back sharply on expansion efforts to focus on reducing costs and new menu items designed to attract additional traffic to its restaurants.
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Yum! Brands Inc’s growth strategy has historically focused on expanding the multi-branding concept. However after two years of less than satisfactory performance, the company is de-emphasizing its multibranding strategy as its core growth plan, focusing instead on increasing the appeal of its individual brands. The company has focused on boosting its bottom line through cost-cutting measures, prompted by rising food and fuel costs. Part of that effort has involved reducing the number of corporate-run locations through refranchising (700 restaurants in the US were sold to franchise operators in 2008 alone). Yum! Brands is focused on menu differentiation, including healthier fare and improving the quality of the company’s facilities. BJ's Restaurants, Inc: owns and operates 93 restaurants located in 13 states. The company’s restaurants operate either as a BJ’s Restaurant & Brewery which includes a brewery within the restaurant, a BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse which receives the beer it sells from one of its breweries or an approved third-party craft brewer of proprietary recipe beers, or a BJ’s Pizza & Grill which is a smaller format, full service restaurant with a more limited menu. BJ’s reported steadily increasing same store sales since Q1 2009 and managed to maintain growth to date. The more upscale atmosphere, superior service and interesting menu is the backbone of their position strategy, which so far proved successful as restaurant traffic has surpassed industry averages. P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, Inc: operates restaurants under the P.F. Chang’s China Bistro (Bistro) and Pei Wei Asian Diner (Pei Wei) names. As of January 2011, the company owned and operated 201 full service Bistro restaurants that feature a Chinese-inspired cuisine and attentive service. The menu features traditional Chinese offerings and dishes that illustrate the emerging influence of Southeast Asia on modern Chinese cuisine. It also owned and operated 168 quick casual Pei Wei restaurants that offer a menu of Asian cuisine. The company enjoys a strong cash position, essentially no debt and anticipates completing a $60 million share repurchase effort this year.
Benchmarking “Exhibit 8 – Benchmarking Against Select Competitors” shows how the financial metrics of Chipotle Mexican Grill match against the one of the comparable companies divided in the following categories:
Quick service restaurants – McDonald’s, and YUM Brands
Fast casual restaurants – Panera Bread and Buffalo Wild Wings
Casual dining restaurants – California Pizza Kitchen, PG Chang’s and BJ’s Restaurants In terms of profitability, Chipotle has one of the highest gross margins(higher even than McDonald’s). The only company with a higher 5 year CAGR is BJ’s Restaurants. Chipotle also has the highest 5 year CAGR in net income. The benchmarking shows that Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is one of the top performers in the industry.
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Part B – Valuation The following valuation methodologies have been applied:
Discounted Cash Flow
Comparable Companies Market Multiples valuation (both based on EBITDA and earnings multiples)
Precedent Transactions Multiples valuation (both based on EBITDA and earnings multiples)
The results of our analysis are described in more detail in the exhibits included. The table below summarizes the results of the valuation approaches used.
($ USD in thousands)
Equity Valuation Reconciliation Min Max
Income Approach - DCF Analysis 2,675,362$ $4,153,889
Current Price per Share (As of 04/03/2011) 274.00$ “Exhibit 7 – Football Field Valuation Graph” presents the football field valuation in a more visual manner. The following conclusions can be drawn from the valuations above:
It seems that the market grossly overvalues Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. The very high current market capitalization of the company is mostly due to institutional buyers who see the company as a perfect candidate for their high growth funds. But even in a high growth scenario, where the company would need to a lot of cash to expand, the intrinsic value will be substantially lower (less than half) of what the market price is.
The markets seem to be overvaluing the top high growth performers in the restaurant industry (Chipotle Mexican Grill and BJ’s Restaurants).
Due to the bubble like valuations for the top performers, valuations for the top performers are very high compared to the rest of the players in the industry.
The market favors the use of earnings multiples, which are prone to substantially increase the valuations for the companies in the industry.
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Discounted Cash Flow The DCF Model is presented below: Free Cash Flows Calculation Est Est Est Est Est Est
Equity Value $2,790,649 $3,119,871 $2,675,362 $2,835,303 $4,153,889 As will be later discussed in more detail, the main driver for the equity valuation using the DCF method is the terminal value. The value per share using this method varies greatly from $84.40 to $130.89. “Exhibit 1 – Net Working Capital Calculation” details the calculation used to calculate the estimate working capital balances. The assumptions related to the DCF model are as follows:
Food, beverage and packaging costs growth rate is expected to be 4%, due to inflationary expectations over the next 5 years. These inflationary trends can already be experienced in the commodities markets and can increase over time, especially in the food related commodities.
Labor cost growth rate is expected to be tame at 2% per year, due mainly to very high unemployment rates in the US making restaurant labor available at a discounted price. However, there are risks associated with the possibility of increases due to the company having to increase its use of legal labor, which can lead to more labor increases.
The average occupancy cost per location is expected to be at $119,000 per year, which is exactly the average 2009-2010.
Based on the 2006-2010 averages: o Other operating costs are expected to be 11% of revenue o Loss on disposal of assets is expected to be 0.4% of revenue o G&A is expected to be 6.5% of revenue o Depreciation and amortization is expected to be 4% of revenue o Other Net Income is expected to be 0.07% of revenue
“Exhibit 2 – Revenue and CAPEX Projection” details the how the revenue and CAPEX projection was based.
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Average revenue per same store unit at the end of 2010 was $1,840,000 (as reported by the
management) and it is assumed to be growing by 3% per year from 2012 through 2015 (the
management expected it to grow in the low single digits).
Once a new location is opened, it will reach the mature location average revenue ($1,840,000
in 2010 and adjusted by 3% for subsequent years) in approximately 2 years. In the first year
of operation, the location will reach half of that target.
The number of locations is expected to continue to grow by 13% each year. The number is reasonable one because it represents a more stable number (it went down from 23% per year in 2006 to 13.4%).
Beginning with 2016, the company is expected to enter the stable growth mode, expanding its number of locations by just 4% per year.
The cost for per opening a new location was $795,000 in 2010 and is expected to grow with inflation (2% in 2011 and 4% after that, due to the loose monetary policy).
“Exhibit 3 – Projected Income Statement” shows the projected income statement through 2016.
Discount Rate WACC will be equal to the cost of equity (which is calculated below and equal to 6.688%), as the only outstanding debt was paid off at the beginning of the 2011 year (as mentioned in the financial reports). It is assumed that the company will not be taking any or will be taking an immaterial amount of debt in the next six years. The management is very averse to borrowing as shown by the last five year’s lending activity.
Beta 0.86
Rf 3.248%
Rm 4%
Re 6.688% WACC = 6.688%
Terminal Value The value of the business operations (based on the assumptions previously discussed) over the 5 year forecasting horizon is only $114,196,000, mostly due to the fact that during the forecasting horizon a lot of money is being reinvested in expansion. This is why, the terminal value is the main driver for the intrinsic value of the Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc equity. “Exhibit 4 – Terminal Value Calculation” shows the details for the terminal value calculation. The comparables used were divided into three categories, considered most similar to the business model and industry of Chipotle Mexican Grill:
Quick Service Restaurants – McDonald’s and YUM Brands are the most representative players in the category. Chipotle belongs to this category because one of its focuses is to provide healthy food quickly.
Fast Casual Restaurants – is also a category representative for the business model of Chipotle Mexican Grill because while there is a fast food component to the way food is delivered, there are other more upscale features such as better quality ingredients and a
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quirkier ambiance. The most representative public players and competitors are Buffalo Wild Wings and Panera Bread Co.
Casual Dining Restaurants – despite the fact that it does not provide table service, Chipotle also meets the definition of this category. Representative companies in this segment are: California Pizza Kitchen, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro and BJ’s Restaurants.
Based on the comparables selected the range for the terminal value can vary from $3,459,789,000 to $5,640,123,000. The lowest terminal value will be generated when using the comparables for the underperforming players in the casual dining restaurants segment (P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, Inc. and California Pizza Kitchen, Inc.); but, this category also hold the player whose comparables would create the highest terminal value – BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. The latter resembles Chipotle Mexican Grill most in all the relevant aspects: profitability, margins, growth rate and customer base.
Precedent Transaction Approach The most relevant past transaction was the purchase of Applebee’s International, Inc. by DineEquity’s IHOP for a price of $1.9 billion. The details for this transaction are shown in “Exhibit 5 – Sale of Applebee’s International to IHOP – Transaction Details”. The multiples for this transaction are:
EBITDA Multiple: 14.97x
Earnings Multiple: 25.96x The implied valuations for Chipotle Mexican Grill based on the above ratios are shown below:
Earnings (EOY 2010) 289,061$ Earnings Multiple 7,494,199$ The Applebee’s sale is the only relevant transaction (similar segment – casual dining, similar customer base) that has occurred recently. Other transactions have occurred to but they were too small to be a relevant term for comparison.
Comparable Companies Analysis The same comparable categories and companies will be used like in the case of the terminal value calculation. “Exhibit 6 – Market Comparables” shows the implied valuations based in the comparables. The range is very wide, from $2,419,909,000 to $9,865,433,000. The lowest valuation is achieved was comparing with California Pizza Kitchen, Inc – which is also the worst performer in the casual dining segment, but when comparing to the BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (which, along with Chipotle is one of the best performers) the valuation is higher than the current market valuation.
Delia Mazilu, Mihai Mazilu Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Coverage Initiation Report
Exhibits - Page 1 of 8
Exhibit 1 – Net Working Capital Calculation Actual Est Est Est Est Est Est
Net Working Capital Calc. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cash and cash equivalents $224,838 $246,528 $288,606 $337,631 $394,734 $461,275 $478,757 % to revenue Cash 12.2%
Accounts receivable $5,658 $19,377 $22,684 $26,537 $31,026 $36,256 $37,630 Days AR 3.5
Current deferred tax asset $4,317 $4,041 $4,731 $5,535 $6,471 $7,562 $7,848 % to rev. Current deferred tax asset 0.2%
Prepaid expenses and other current assets $16,016 $18,186 $21,291 $24,907 $29,120 $34,028 $35,318 % to rev. Prepaid expenses and other current assets 0.9%
Income tax receivable $23,528 $26,269 $30,753 $35,977 $42,062 $49,152 $51,015 % to rev. Income tax receivable 1.3%
Current portion of deemed landlord f inancing $121 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - % to rev. Current portion of deemed landlord f inancing 0.0%
Income tax payable - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - % to rev. Income tax payable 0.0%
Total current liabilities $123,054 $58,396 $68,363 $79,976 $93,502 $109,264 $113,405
Working Capital $283,167 $406,148 $475,470 $556,237 $650,313 $759,939 $788,739
The following assumptions have been used:
Days’ AR is based on the Days’ AR amount at the end of 2010 which was 3.37 (rounded to 3.5)
Days’ Inventory is based on the Days’ Inventory amount at the end of 2010 which was 2.29 (rounded to 2.3)
Days’ AP is based on the Day’s AP average for 2006-2010 rounded to 10.5 days
The % of revenue to Cash, Current deferred tax asset, prepaid expenses, income tax receivable, investments, accrued payroll, accrued liabilities, Current portion of deemed landlord financing, income tax payable are based on the % to revenue for the 2010 reporting year.
Delia Mazilu, Mihai Mazilu Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Coverage Initiation Report
Exhibits - Page 2 of 8
Exhibit 2 – Revenue and CAPEX Projection Actual Est. Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.
Mature Location Average Revenue per Unit 1,840 1,895 1,952 2,011 2,071 2,133
Revenue from newly Opened Locations 129,720$ 417,892$ 761,302$ 1,169,174$ 1,652,607$ 1,732,048$
Same Store Sales Growth Rate 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Revenue From Units Opened 2010 and Prior 1,891,000$ 1,947,730$ 2,006,162$ 2,066,346$ 2,128,337$ 2,192,187$
Total Revenue 2,020,720$ 2,365,621$ 2,767,463$ 3,235,521$ 3,780,944$ 3,924,235$
Pre-opening costs per restaurant are based on a historical average of the pre-opening costs per restaurant for 2006-2010. Annual CAPEX = Investment costs per restaurant (adjusted for inflation) x Expected net number of new locations Pre-opening costs = Pre-opening costs per restaurant x Expected net number of new locations
Delia Mazilu, Mihai Mazilu Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Coverage Initiation Report
Exhibits - Page 3 of 8
Exhibit 3 – Projected Income Statement Actual Est Est Est Est Est Est
All amounts in 000s 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
