These survey results represent the opinions of 43 of the nation’s top money managers, investment strategists, and professional economists.They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on August 21-25, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question.Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys. This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 1 of 12 FED SURVEY August 25, 2015 These survey results represent the opinions of 43 of the nation’s top money managers, investment strategists, and professional economists. They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on August 21-25, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question. Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys. This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation. 1. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate at its September meeting? 49% 47% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Yes No Don't know/unsure
Transcript
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 1 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
These survey results represent the opinions of 43 of the nation’s top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.
They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on August 21-25, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question.
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
1. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate at its September meeting?
49% 47%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Yes No Don't know/unsure
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 2 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
2. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate in 2015?
84%
92%
82%
67%
11%
5%
15%
23%
5% 3% 3%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Aug 25
Survey Dates
Yes No Don't know/unsure
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 3 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
3. If the Fed does not hike this year, which two factors from the following list do you believe will most likely be the reason?
59%
32%
12%
47%
32%
60%
57%
29%
24%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Declining
inflation
Weak overseas
growth
Concern over
market reaction
to a hike
Weak US
economic
growth
Weak payroll
growth
Jun 16 Aug 25
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 4 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
4. How serious a concern is China for the US economy?
0%
7%
21%
16%
12% 12%
16% 16%
0% 0% 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1=Not serious at all 10=Highest level of seriousness
Average: 5.1
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 5 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
5. Do you believe that a central bank can more or less hit an inflation target of its choosing over a medium-term time horizon?
35%
51%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Yes No Don't know/unsure
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 6 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
6. When do you expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate and allow its balance sheet to decline?
Survey Date Fed Funds Hike
Average Forecast
Balance Sheet
Average Forecast
April 28, 2014 survey July 2015 October 2015
June 4 survey August 2015 March 2016
July 29 survey August 2015 December 2015
August 20 survey July 2015 Not asked
September 16 survey June 2015 December 2015
October 28 survey July 2015 January 2016
December 16 survey July 2015 February 2016
Jan. 27, 2015 survey September 2015 April 2016
March 17 survey August 2015 April 2016
April 28 survey October 2015 May 2016
June 16 survey October 2015 July 2016
July 28 survey November 2015 June 2016
August 25 survey January 2016 September 2016
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 7 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
7. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will be on … ?
Jul 30Sep
17
Oct
29
Dec
17
Jan
28
'14
Mar
18
Apr
28Jun 4 Jul 29
Aug
20
Sep
16
Oct
28
Dec
16
Jan
27,
'15
Mar
17
April
28
Jun
16Jul 28
Aug
25
Dec 31, 2015 0.97%0.92%0.82%0.70%0.72%0.83%0.99%0.68%1.05%0.89%0.98%0.89%0.83%0.73%0.71%0.54%0.53%0.47%0.37%
Dec 31, 2016 1.99%2.13%2.04%1.93%1.75%1.84%1.46%1.56%1.41%1.12%
0.97% 0.92%
0.82%
0.70% 0.72%
0.83%
0.99%
0.68%
1.05%
0.89%
0.98%
0.89%
0.83%
0.73% 0.71%
0.54% 0.53%
0.47%
0.37%
1.99%
2.13%
2.04%
1.93%
1.75%
1.84%
1.46%
1.56%
1.41%
1.12%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Dec 2016
Dec 2015
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 8 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
8. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the terminal rate?
3.16% 3.20%
3.30%
3.17% 3.11%
3.04%
2.85%
3.06%
2.98%
2.79%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Aug 20Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan
27, '15
Mar 17 Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Aug 25
Survey Dates
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 9 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
9. When do you believe fed funds will reach its terminal rate?
Survey Date Forecast
August 20 survey Q4 2017
September 16 survey Q3 2017
October 28 survey Q4 2017
December 16 survey Q1 2018
Jan. 27, 2015 survey Q1 2018
March 17 survey Q4 2017
April 28 survey Q1 2018
June 16 survey Q1 2018
July 28 survey Q2 2018
August 25 survey Q3 2018
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 10 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
10. Has the U.S. stock market already discounted a fed funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year?
56%
53% 53%
47%
61%
50%
55%
36% 38%
47%
50%
39% 38%
36%
8% 9%
0%
3%
0%
12%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Aug 25
Survey dates
Yes No Don't know/unsure
CNBC Fed Survey – August 25, 2015 Page 11 of 12
FED SURVEY August 25, 2015
FED SURVEY April 30,
Has the U.S. bond market already discounted a fed funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year?
