Public Opinion and Advocacy

Ken Kollman

University of Michigan

June, 2013

Which is More Persuasive?

• 10,000 emails from voters with the same

words in each messagewords in each message

• 200 individually written letters from voters

invoking personal stories and deep feeling

Standard Public Opinion Information

• X % of the public disapproves of….

• Y % of the public approves of…..• Y % of the public approves of…..

• In general do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?

– 58% more strict

– 6% less strict

– 34% kept as now

(U.S. national representative sample, Gallup Organization, 2012)

Simplistic and Misleading. Why?

• Wording and survey techniques

• Do you approve or disprove of the Justice

Department’s decision to subpoena AP phone

records as part of investigation into disclosure

of classified information? (Pew)of classified information? (Pew)

-36 percent of respondents said they

approved.

(Pew Research Center, May 2013)

• As you may know, the Associated Press reported classified information about U.S. anti-terrorism efforts, and federal prosecutors have obtained AP’s phone records through a court order to find the source of this information. Do you think this the source of this information. Do you think this action by federal prosecutors is or is not justified?(Washington Post/ABC News)

-52 percent of respondents thought this action was “justified.”

(Washington Post/ABC News, May 2013)

• As you may know, after the AP ran news stories that included classified information about U.S. anti-terrorism efforts, the Justice Department secretly collected phone records for reporters and editors who work there. Do you think the actions editors who work there. Do you think the actions of the Justice Department were acceptable or unacceptable? (CNN/ORC)

-43 percent of respondents thought this action was “acceptable.”

(CNN/ORC, May 2013)

• Most importantly---public opinion

percentages are not what politicians care

about

Politicians Care About Salience

• Salience: importance or strength of an issue

relative to other issues

Even Deeper Kind of Salience

• What politicians really care about: how many

people are willing to vote for or against

someone or a party based on this issue. someone or a party based on this issue.

Deep Salience

• Difficult for politicians to learn

• Interest groups want to communicate (signal)

thisthis

• Credibility of the signal is the key

• Single-issue voters

• Angry voters

– State of the economy

– Budget cuts– Budget cuts

– Tax increases

– Program cuts

• Swing voters

– Willingness to vote for different parties depending on circumstances and issues

How can Lobbyists be Convincing?

• Inside Lobbying

• Outside Lobbying

Inside Lobbying

• Direct contact with politicians

• Speaking with

• Testifying• Testifying

• Giving money

Outside Lobbying

• Efforts to mobilize voters to pressure

politicians

• Grassroots• Grassroots

• Public relations

• Advertising issue positions

• Communicating aspects of public opinion

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DIRECTOR'SNOTES

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EVENTS

170

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Bad Idea

Some politicians in Washington want to raise taxes on the oil and gas industry, putting jobs and our recovery in

jeopardy.

Page 1 of 3http:/ / www.api.org/ news- and- media/ industry- advert isements

jeopardy.

Read More »

Short Term and Long Term

Outside Lobbying

• Short term: to convince politicians on a

specific issue that the issue is deeply salient

• Long term: to change the way voters and

politicians think about and evaluate a given

issue

Short Term Outside Lobbying

• Demonstrated ability to mobilize

• Should be costly collective action• Should be costly collective action

– Not massive emails

– E-communications not all that helpful

Long Term Outside Lobbying

• Investments

– Think tanks– Think tanks

– Research centers

– Durable organizations that communicate and

propagate

Summary of Best Practices

• Gold Standard: affect an election outcome

• Demonstrate ability to mobilize, using costly • Demonstrate ability to mobilize, using costly

behaviors by voters

• Create durable organizations

• Maintain relationships with politicians

• Be especially active before and after elections

Organizational Strategies

• Create a federated lobbying organization in a

federal system

• Maintain inside lobbying presence

• Have an active public relations unit

– Mobilize using new media, not necessarily

communicate to politicians using new media

– Publish opinion articles, letters to the editor