Co-benefit Approach of Mitigating Technologies toward developing
Low Carbon Society in Asia
Yohji Uchiyama and Keiichi Okajima
Faculty of Systems and Information Engineering University of Tsukuba
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Power Lighting 2010, Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2-4 Nov. 2010
Background【 International trend toward the development of low carbon society 】
EU ： advocate 60-80 % GHG reduction under the level of 1990 up to 2050Japan ： governmental vision to reduce GHG by 25 % under the level of 1990 up to 2020, supposing participation of major powers in GHG reduction targets
【 Difficulty of international agreement 】No agreement of reduction targets
because of confliction among countries involved in COP,UNFCCC
【 Japanese situation 】●grappling with effective measures toward new vision●serious consideration of Asian countries achieving remarkable economic growth●contributing to develop low carbon societies of Asia by transfer of Japanese environmental technologies
【 Situation of Newly industrializing economy and developing countries 】 ● escaping from poverty ● solving local pollutions of air, water and soil ● shortage of investment funds
【 Japanese role 】●To contribute sustainable development of Asian countries●Transfer of advanced environmental technologies to NIE and DCs by CDM projects
【 Necessity of co-benefits study 】●Cooperative Win-win relationship between developed and developing countries?●Could mitigating technologies be economically transferred ？●GHG reduction potential of mitigating technologies if co-benefit effect is included ？
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
one of the “flexibility” mechanisms defined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2007,http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf#page=12)
【 objectives 】(1) to assist parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable developmen
t and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
(2) to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments
【 Outline of the project process 】●An industrialized country ("Annex I" parties )that wishes to get credits from a CDM project must obtain the consent of the developing country(Non-Annex I parties) hosting the project that the project will contribute to sustainable development. ●The CDM is one of the Protocol's "project-based" mechanisms based on the idea of emission reduction "production“.●These reductions are "produced" and then subtracted against a hypothetical "baseline" of emissions.●The emissions baseline are the emissions that are predicted to occur in the absence of a particular CDM project. ●CDM projects are "credited" against this baseline, in the sense that host countries gain credit for producing these emission cuts.
NOTE ： "Annex I" parties are those countries that are listed in Annex I of the treaty, and are the industrialized countries.Non-Annex I parties are developing countries.
Procedures of the CDM
DOE
DOE
Pre-research
【 Research organization 】●National Institute of Advanced industrial Science and Technologies● The University of Tsukuba【 Objectives and method 】 ● Potentials of CDM credits in Asian countries● Developing Asian 3E (energy, economic and environment) Model ★ Optimal approaches (Japanese MARKAL model, Asian GOAL model) ★ Life cycle analysis (Energy-chain LCA model) ★ EIA and externality (EIA model, External cost analysis model)
【 Case study 】 Cost-benefit analysis of CDM measures including external costs for several electricity grid networks in China and India
“Developing Integrated Evaluation Method for CO2 Mitigating Technologies in Asia”
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (B-074) of the Ministry of the Environment (FY2007 ～ 2009)
【 MARKAL model 】●Estimating optimal energy supply and demand up to 2030●Japanese requirement for CDM credits
【 GOAL model 】●Optimal analysis of energy supply & demand in Asia●Potential of CDM credits supplied from Asian countries
【 Energy-chain LCA model 】●Life cycle inventory of CO2
mitigating technologies●CDM credits of mitigating technologies
【 EIA model Externality model 】●Environmental impact assessment●Economic value added of externality
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“Co-benefit Approach of Mitigating Technologies toward developing Low
Carbon Society in Asia”
supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (E-1001) of the Ministry
of the Environment (FY2010 ～ 2012)
【 Research organization 】●The University of Tsukuba : leading organization●National Institute of Advanced industrial Science and Technologies(AIST)
Outline of the Project
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【 Pre-research 】 “Developing Integrated Evaluation Method for CO2 Mitigating
Technologies in Asia” (FY2007 ～ 2009)
【 Objectives 】 Estimating economical co-benefits to reduce both CO2 emission and air pollutions, and clarifying technological potential of mitigating technologies to achieve low carbon societies in Asia
【 Methodologies 】 Integrated Asian 3E (energy, environment and economic) Model which combines global optimal energy analysis model (Asian GOAL model) with life cycle analysis, environmental impact assessment and economic value added approach for various energy chain systems 【 Results 】 ● Environmental potentials to reduce air pollutions as well as CO2 emissions in Asian countries up to 2030● Economical effect of co-benefit obtained by mitigating technologies
【 Policy Implication 】 ● Supporting CDM projects in Asian countries● Providing for research materials to support the global worming
policy of IPCC since 2013
Promotion system of the project
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University of Tsukuba
AIST AISTAIST
Sub-themes of the Project
【 Sub-theme 1 】 LCA of mitigating energy systems for Asian countries
by using energy-chain LCA model and GIS database
【 Sub-theme 2
Social survey on perception for environmental burdens of mitigating technologies
【 Sub-theme 3
Analysis of external cost including co-benefit effect for mitigating technologies
【 Sub-theme 4
Analysis of mitigating technology development in Asian countries including co-benefit effect 9
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【Subtheme 4: AIST 】Analysis of Mitigation Technologies Development in Asian Countries
Considering Co-benefits
02004006008001000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emission reduction
Mitigation Technologies
Contribution to Policy J udgmentfor Technology Transfer and
Establishing Low-carbon Society
Post-Kyoto（REDD, SCM）
Energy and Environmental Policy,Statistical Databasein Asian Countries
【Subtheme 3: AIST 】Economical Evaluation of Mitigation Technologies
Including Co-benefit Effect
Benefit Cost
【Subtheme1: Univ. Tsukuba】Evaluation of Energy Technology Options by
Energy Chain LCA and GIS
Estimating external cost
Air Pollutant Emission CO2Emission
Environmental Economic Value
CO2Credit
Environmental Credit
CO2Mitigation
Long-Term Energy Demandin Asian Countries
Energy technology options
CDM
【Subtheme 2: AIST】Social Survey on Perceptionof Mitigation Technologies Co-benefit
012345678
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
設備
量(億
kW)
Capacity (GW
)
8007006005004003002001000
Structure of the Project(Period: FY2010-2012)
【 Sub-theme1 】 LCA of mitigating energy systems for Asian countries by using energy-chain LCA model and GIS database
Outputs of CO2 emissions for processes (example)
IGCC USC NGCC
434 412
757
512 484
842
ウイグル自治区IGCC USC NGCC
197 175
517
274 247
602
山西省
IGCC USC NGCC
165 140
524
248 219
614
上海市
IGCC USC NGCC
269 246
592
346 319
677
重慶市
IGCC USC NGCC
197 172
556
280 251
646
広東省
IGCC USC NGCC
230 207
575
311 283
662
遼寧省
01000
2005
2025
Evaluation of efficiency, environmental burdens and costs of technologies
Evaluation of advanced fossil fuel power and renewable technologies with GIS database
Local environmental burdens from GIS analysis(CO2,SOx,NOx, etc.)
Overall Efficiency（ unit factor ）
Total costs（ unit factor ）
Accumulative CO2 emissions（ unit factor）
Conversion Transportation Utilization
Raw materials extr. Conversion Transportation Utilization
LCA for production and O&M of each process
Energy-chain
Output for sub-theme 2 and 4
（ Investigation, Data collection)
● China（ advanced thermal power+CCS,Biomass, wind ）● India（ advanced thermal power+CCS,Biomass, PV ）● Kazakhstan（ wind, hydropower ）
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
設備 燃料採掘 燃料輸送 運用 廃棄物処理
積算CO2排
出原
単位[g-CO2/kWh]
USC
NGCCローリー
NGCCパイプライン
既存石炭
NGCCタンカーRaw materials extr.
Raw materials extr. Conversion Transportation Utilization
knowledge
External conditions(income, age,
living condition, etc.)
Perceptionfor burdens
Cost burdens
Social legislation
Mitigating options
Air pollution emissions, etc.
Proposal scenarios
Social survey in investigation areas
Data input for cost –benefits analysis including co-benefits
【 Sub-theme2 】 Social survey on perception for environmental burdens of mitigating technologies
Structural survey on WTP for improving environmental burdens in local areas of Asian countries
Sub-theme1Preparatory study:ratio of WTP/income
Mitigating technologies↓
Investigating area
Sub-theme3
CDM host countriesChinaIndia
Kazakhstan(?)
●Advanced fossil fuels power technologies●Renewable energy technologies (biomass, wind, hydro, etc)
↓Reducing air pollution
emissions
Health effect of burdens,cost requirement for reduction
WTP inquiries for residents
Analysis of environmental perception
WTP (4% )喘息回避に対する 年収別係数 減
- 11.0
- 10.5
- 10.0
- 9.5
- 9.0
- 8.5
- 8.0
- 7.5
0- 5 5- 20 20- 40 40- 60 60- 80 80- 100 100- 150 150-
( )世帯年収 千元円
係
数a
(1) 全体一定 (2) 階層毎(3) 下側固定 (4) 全体線形
High dependence on income in Shanghai
Emission level for acceptance
income
Developing WTP functions of environmental perception by residents
【 Sub-theme3 】 Analysis of external cost including co-benefit effect for mitigating technologies
●Technological & environmental factors of mitigating technologies●Inventory data of CO2, SOx, NOx, etc.
Sub-theme2 Bench-mark data of WTP and benefit transfer
Cost-benefit analysis
Net benefit of environmental improvement including co-benefits
Life -cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling (LIME)
Clarifying effect of environmental improvement for mitigating technologies in CDM host countries by LIME and cost-benefit analysis
Sub-theme1
not including co-benefits
Including co-benefits
Introduction of technology
cost
benefit
Offset benefits
global
regional
local
health
Social assets
biodiversity
Agri. production
030year
Introduction of technology
0 year 30
Economic evaluation on environmental improvement
Global warming
acidification
Air pollutions
Increase of atmospheric temperature and sea level
Increase of acid
deposition
Increase of pollution
concentration
【 Sub-theme4 】 Analysis of mitigating technology development in Asian countries including co-benefit effect
Economic indicator of technologies = (total cost of energy system) - (CDM credit of carbon) - (co-benefits)
Technological performance and cost data of mitigating
technologies•Advanced fossil fuel fired power generation + CCS•Renewable energy technologies•Nuclear power technologies
Sub-theme1
Co-benefit data of mitigating technologies
Optimal mix of power generation technologies
Emission restrictions of CO2, SOx, NOx
Cost minimum
Economics
Energy supply and demand
Installed capacities only considering CDM effect
Installed capacities considering both CDM and co-benefits
Credit price($/tCO2)
pote
ntia
l(GW
)
wind
PV
142013 2030GOAL( global optimum analysis) model （ estimating up to 2030 ）
Including co-benefits
not including co-benefits
Sub-theme3
Evaluating long-term energy supply of mitigating technologies with co-benefit effect based on outputs of sub-theme 1-3
Collaborating structure of the project
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●Site survey●Data collection
●Information exchange on energy policy●Data support on energy supply and demand
Information exchange on environmental policy
●Site survey●Data collection
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Input and output relation among sub-themes
Economical data of WTP based on social survey in local area
Sub-theme 2
Long term energy supply prospect , installed capacities of mitigating technologies, reduction of environmental burdens and economical effect of co-benefit
Sub-theme 4
Co-benefit data on improvement of air pollution and CO2 emission
Sub-theme 3
Investigation of energy and environmental policies in Asian countries, Construction of database with literatures and site visit investigation
Technological/economical data and CO2/air pollution reduction of mitigating options in local area
Sub-theme 1
Support for environmental policy on countermeasures required for international and domestic framework of climate change after 2013
Schedule of the projectFY2010
Data collection and improvement of methodologies
FY2011 Strengthening research
among sub-themes
FY2012 Integrated analysis
and final report
Improving analytical models
Case studies in different areas
Developing economic evaluation model of WTP
Investigating inquiry approach of perception Investigating WTP functions
Preparatory survey Site survey in different areas Survey supplement
【 Sub-theme1 】
【 Sub-theme3 】
【 Sub-theme4 】
【 Sub-theme2 】
Data survey and constructing database
Improving analytical models
Data survey and constructing database
Case studies on different technologies
Case studies on different scenarios
Improving analytical models
Data survey and constructing database
Computer analysis
Acknowledgment
This research is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (E-1001) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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