CO2 Forcing: Fact or Fiction

Science provides the unambiguous answer

George WhiteOctober 2008

Revised July 2009

co2@palisad.com

The Ice Cores

> 400K year history from Vostok

> 800K year history from Dome C

The climate is far from constant

CO2, CH4 and Temperature are all correlated

The data tells us far more than this

What kind of changes are expected?

Which came first, the gas or the heat?

What are the periodic influences?

Many sources of information

Ice Core Data

Atmospheric Absorption Data

Satellite Observations

Ground Based Observations

Biology

Physics

Vostok Ice Core Temperatures

Ice Core Temp + CO2

Temp + CO2 + CH4

Last 15K years Temp + CO2

Dome C Ice Temp + CO2

Data Smoothing

Data samples are intrinsically biased

Recent samples represent short term averages

Ancient samples represent long term averages

Different variables have different sample periods

Integrate samples over N years

Matches short term data to long term data

Matches temperature to CO2 and CH4

Isolate long and short term periodicity

Isolate long and short term dependency

Temp + CO2 1500 year smoothing

Dome C Temp + CO2 with smoothing

Last 15K years with smoothing

Last 15K years Dome C

Compare Vostok and Dome C

Dome C 15K years + smoothing

Correlation Analysis

Simple correlation metric for time Δt from t

Plus 1 when t+Δt changes in the same direction as t

Minus 1 when t+Δt changes in the opposite direction

Cross correlation identifies cause and effect

Auto correlation identifies periodic components

Use smoothing to select long or short term

Variable window to match Δt to sample period

Cross Correlation Analysis

Can identify which of 2 variables changes first

Temperature and CO2

Temperature and CH4

CO2 and CH4

Smoothing is required to normalize variability

Smoothing does not mask cause and effect

Smoothing makes short term dependence apparent

Cross Correlate Temp and CO2

Cross Correlate Temp and CH4

Cross Correlate Temp, CO2 and CH4

Dome C Cross Correlation

Dome C has finer resolution CO2 measurements

Shows apparent correlation of CO2 to future Temp

Frequently misinterpreted as a causal dependency

Also shows earlier correlation to opposite change

This is an aliasing effect which really indicates

CO2 increase -> Temp Decrease -> Temp Increase

Indicates correlation across a period of unrelated change

Indicates interference from a periodic effect

When smoothing is applied

Same results as Vostok data

Dome C Correlate Temp and Co2

Dome C Correlate with smoothing

Dome C Temp, CO2 and CH4

Auto Correlation Analysis

Auto correlate temperature

Apparent short term periodic behavior

180 year Dome C, 120 Year (25yr bucket), 270 year Vostok

Seems to be aliasing of seasonal variability

Apply smoothing

Unambiguous 22K, 41K period (Vostok and Dome C)

Modulated peaks are evidence for other periodicity

Related to variability in Earth's orbit and axis

Related to sums and harmonics of this variability

Common to temperature, CO2 and CH4

Short Term Auto Correlation

Medium Term Auto Correlation

Long Term Auto Correlation

Longer Term Auto Correlation

An Even Longer Term Effect

Combined Effects

The change between 96K and 41K ice ages

Considered by some to be a mystery

When the 41K, 96K and 500K forcing are combined

One can cancel or enhance the other

96K is weaker, 500K is weakest, 41K is dominant

The pattern is clearly an interference pattern

We are entering a new age of 41K ice ages

Evidenced by current weaker, but longer interglacial

Currently approaching 500K peak

41K and 96K peaks are separated by about 30K years

Stretching out the current interglacial

Is This Enough Forcing?

Some say that these effects are not strong enough

The periodicity clearly aligns

Magnitudes seem unexpected

96K is weak, but appears dominant recently

Several 41K peaks have aligned with 96K minimums

This mitigates the magnitude of the 41K effects

There is a feedback effect at work

Hemispheric asymmetry and ice amplification

Atmospheric Absorption

An objective review of atmospheric absorption is all that's required to disprove CO2 forcing

The atmospheric absorption spectrum is known

It has been measured and correlated to theory

Water vapor contributes about 2/3, CO2 is 1/3

Relatively transparent window from 8μ to 14μWeak ozone absorption in the middle

7.5μ CH4 line on one side, 15μ CO2 line on the other, water vapor continuum absorption throughout

Atmospheric Absorption Spectrum

CO2 Absorption

15μ CO2 line absorption

Highly saturated

Energy limited, not concentration limited

Double CO2

Insignificant increase in width

Primarily decreases mean distance before absorption

Other bands are between 2μ and 4.3μNarrower lines

Significant H2O overlap

Far less energy available to be absorbed

GHG Forcing

The Energy Cycle

CO2 captures 15μ surface energy

Collisions transfer energy to other gas molecules

Some energy gets back to the surface

The cycle repeats

Delays the release of surface energy

GHG flux is a circulating flux

Solar flux is an incident flux

Satellite Observations

25 year history of detailed weather measurements

10 km surface resolution

3 hour time resolution

100% surface coverage

Measurements include

Surface temperature

Cloud temperature

Cloud coverage

Reflectivities

Anomaly Analysis

Anomaly Fix

Anomaly Partial Fix

Observed Variability

Global mean temperature varies significantly

+/- 2.1˚C seasonal variability

+2.1˚C in June, -2.1˚C in December

Sun is closest in early January, farthest in July

Global mean temperature changes oppositely

Indicates dramatic hemispheric asymmetry

Unambiguously supports Milankovitch forcing

Data calibration error around 2001-2002

This has been misinterpreted as 'evidence' of warming

Global Average Temperature

Hemispheric Differences

Southern Hemisphere

8˚C peak to peak variability

276˚K absolute mean temperature (=3˚C)

Northern Hemisphere

24˚C peak to peak variability

280˚K absolute mean temperature (=7˚C)

Equatorial

Small 6 month periodic variability

Clearly illustrates 2001/2002 calibration error

Hemispheric Differences

Surface Reflectivity

Northern Hemisphere

Higher mean

More land, less water

More variability

Greater range in albedo – whiteness of snow and ice

More time spent during higher reflectivity

More persistent snow and ice coverage

Consequences

Sun closer in Northern summer -> cooler climate

Sun closer in Southern summer -> warmer climate

Reflectivity Asymmetries

Temperature and Reflectivity

Where is the Sun Now?

Sun is closest in early January

3.4% more incident energy than average

Sun is farthest away in early July

3.4% less incident solar energy than average

Nearly 7% total solar variability over a year

Corresponds to a 4˚C difference in temperature

Peak aphelion/perihelion differences are > 20%

Temperature and Energy

Implications of Sun-Earth distance?

When Sun is closest during North winter (now)

Warmer seasons, ice shrinks

Ice shrinks, -> less reflected energy -> even warmer

Positive feedback stops once minimum ice is reached

When Sun is farther away during Northern winter

Colder seasons, ice grows

Ice grows -> more reflected energy -> even colder

Southern hemisphere climate is more stable

Equatorial climate is even more stable

Ice Amplification

A popular hypothesis is that CO2 forcing amplifies periodic influences of orbit and axis

As evidenced by hemispheric differences, small changes in reflectivity have big consequences

This is confirmed by energy balance modeling

Surface ice and snow reflects a lot of energy

Positive feedback reinforces this effect

Models show that the ebb and flow of northern hemisphere surface snow and ice provides all of the required amplification

Ground Based Observations

Thermometers, tree rings, etc.

Must be very careful here

It's invalid to compare short term changes to changes in long term averages

The most common mistake in climate alarmists arguments The 'Hockey Stick' Claims that temperatures are rising faster than ever

Mauna Loa CO2 measurements

Yes, CO2 is increasing, but ...

Mauna Loa CO2

Overlay Mauna Loa CO2 with global temperature

Temperature decreases as CO2 increases

Actually CO2 decreases as temperature increases

Clear biological response

More warmth, more plants, more CO2 is consumed

As it cools, plants die, decomposing into CO2 and CH4

Very fast acting

Responds to temperature changes immediately

Removing trend bias, the response is relatively linear

Short term response

Mauna Loa CO2 and Temperature

Biology

The CO2 and CH4 record reflects biology

Short term

More warmth -> more plants -> less CO2

Less warmth -> more decomposition -> more CO2

Long Term

Plants require Sun energy + CO2

Build up of CO2 required to support more biomass

More biomass -> more decomposition -> more CO2/CH4

More CO2 and Energy -> more biomass

Animals slowly catch up, increasing CH4/CO2 ratio

Physics

Conservation of Energy

Precludes runaway greenhouse effects

Atmospheric absorption has no effect on the energy budget, i.e. Energy in == Energy out

Clouds and greenhouse gases, warm surface

Clouds trap far more energy than greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases redistribute atmospheric energy

Greenhouse gas effects are primarily diurnal

Is CO2 Forcing Plausible?

Ice cores The recent rate of temperature change is exceeded in the data Past temperatures were warmer with far lower CO2 levels Temperature changes are correlated to orbit and axis variability There is no correlation of temperature to prior CO2 or CH4 levels Biology offers a complete explanation for CO2 and CH4

Atmospheric absorption CO2 absorption is energy limited and not concentration limited Water vapor is a far larger contributor

Mauna Loa Increasing temperature is associated with decreasing CO2

Satellite Ebb and flow of ice provides all necessary positive feedback Hemispheric asymmetry amplifies seasonal differences

Politics

Unfortunately, politics has subverted the science

Many want global warming to man made

There are convenient scapegoats

It's a self righteous feel good kind of politics to promote man made causes of global warming

The issue fits too well as a left/right conflict

Guilt/greed

Environment/business

There's money to be made

Conclusion

Natural CO2 and CH4 are indicators of biology

No forward feedback to temperature is in the record

To Solve Global Warming

All we need to do is wait

In geologic terms, another ice age is eminent

It's too bad that anthropomorphic CO2 can't stop it

Spending money on CO2 mitigation

Absolute worst thing to do

No climate change reversal will result

Better spent on adapting to the inevitable

References

Data Hyperlinks

Satellite Data

Ice Core Data

Irradiance Data

Atmospheric Absorption Data

Science Hyperlinks

Milankovitch

Weather Satellite Data

Black Body Radiation And Stefan-Boltzmann Law