COA Modeling Results

October 1, 2013

• Quick Review of COA Splits

• Operations Not Covered by COA

• Modeling Results

COA Splits Reviewed

• COA Percentages are:

– Storage Withdrawals for In Basin Use: 75% CVP/ 25% SWP

– Export of Unstored Flows: 55% CVP/45% SWP

South Delta Export Constraints

• D1641– Sprint SJ pulse flow export constraint (1:1)– Export as % of Delta Inflow (35%/65%)

• BiOps– OMR (both USFWS and NMFS)– April-May I/E (NMFS)

• 50%/50% sharing of exports– Actual operations– Modeled under BDCP

• Frequency of South Delta constraints– increased with BiOps– projected to decrease with BDCP

High Spring Outflow Operations

• Decision Tree Criteria under Alt.4 H4 (HOS)

• Higher release contribution from SWP than COA sharing formulas indicate for outflow criteria.

• Modeled as follows:

– Reduction in CVP and SWP exports to minimum

– Additional flow from Oroville above COA requirement

– No payback of any CVP COA debt

– No assumption of purchased flows

Modeling Results

• * DWR BDO – Updated version of CALSIM (D-1485, D-1641, BiOp, Alt4-C3)

• ** CH2MHILL (NAA, Alt4-C1 (LOS), Alt4-C4(HOS))

2,616 2,529 2,4612,211 2164

2376 2,326 2,324 2250

3,4693,348 3,358

2,543 2557

32292,927 2,905

2506

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

D-1485* D-1641w/o B2*

D-1641+B2*

D-1641+BiOps*

NAA** ALT4-H1** ALT4 H3-HR25*

ALT4 H3-HR65*

ALT4-H4**

Tota

l De

live

ris

(TA

F)Total CVP/SWP Annual Average Deliveries (1922-2003)

SWP SOD Deliveries

CVP SOD Deliveries

(57%)

(47%)(44%)(44%)(42%)(46%)(47%)(42%)(43%)(43%)

(53%)

(56%)(56%)

(58%)

(54%)(53%)

(58%)(57%)

D-1485 through Alt4-HOSbreakdown by

User Classification and Year Type

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Long-Term Average Deliveries

D-1485*

D-1641+B2*

D-1641+BiOps*

NAA (no CC)**

ALT4-H1 (no CC)**

ALT4-H4 (no CC)**

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Wet Year Deliveries

D-1485*

D-1641+B2*

D-1641+BiOps*

NAA (no CC)**

ALT4-H1 (no CC)**

ALT4-H4 (no CC)**

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Above Normal Year Deliveries

D-1485*

D-1641+B2*

D-1641+BiOps*

NAA (no CC)**

ALT4-H1 (no CC)**

ALT4-H4 (no CC)**

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Below Normal Year Deliveries

D-1485*

D-1641+B2*

D-1641+BiOps*

NAA (no CC)**

ALT4-H1 (no CC)**

ALT4-H4 (no CC)**

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Dry Year Deliveries

D-1485*

D-1641+B2*

D-1641+BiOps*

NAA (no CC)**

ALT4-H1 (no CC)**

ALT4-H4 (no CC)**

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAFCritical Year Deliveries

D-1485*

D-1641+B2*

D-1641+BiOps*

NAA (no CC)**

ALT4-H1 (no CC)**

ALT4-H4 (no CC)**

NAA, LOS, & HOSDelivery Splitsby Year Type

2,164

2,7882,398

2,0261,839

1,246

2,557

3,231

2,747

2,670

2,224

1,290

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Long-Term Avg Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

NAA Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries(54%)

(49%)

(51%)

(45%)

(55%)

(43%)

(57%)

(47%)

(53%)

(46%)

(54%)

(46%)

2,376

3,0022,761

2,3481,980

1,294

3,229

4,187

3,883

3,617

2,489

1,214

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Long-Term Avg Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)LOS Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries

(42%)

(48%)

(56%)

(61%)

(58%)

(58%)

(58%)

(52%)

(44%)(39%)

(42%)(42%)

2,250

2,8342,599

2,1641,933

1,242

2,506

3,479

2,926

2,536

1,770

1,084

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Long-Term Avg Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

HOS Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries(53%)

(53%)

(52%)(46%)

(47%)(45%)

(47%)

(48%)

(54%)

(53%)

(55%)

(47%)

2,1642,376 2,250

2,557

3,229

2,506

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

Long-Term Average Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries

(54%)

(47%)

(53%)

(42%)

(58%)

(46%)

2,7883,002 2,834

3,231

4,187

3,479

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

Wet Year Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries

(54%)

(45%)

(55%)

(42%)

(58%)

(46%)

2,3982,761 2,599

2,747

3,883

2,926

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

Above Normal Year Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries

(53%)

(42%) (47%)

(53%)

(58%)

(47%)

2,0262,348

2,164

2,670

3,617

2,536

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

Below Normal Year Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries(57%)

(39%) (46%)

(54%)

(61%)

(43%)

1,8391,980 1,933

2,224

2,489

1,770

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

Dry Year Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries

(55%)

(52%)

(48%)

(44%)

(56%)

(45%)

1,246 1,294 1,242

1,290 1,214

1,084

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)

Tota

l De

live

rie

s (T

AF)

Critical Year Delivery Split

Total SWP Deliveries

Total CVP Deliveries

(51%)

(53%)

(47%)

(52%)

(48%)

(49%)

LOS & HOS% Delivery Change

Compared with NAA

26%

22%

39%

10%

7%

22%

0%

0%

-2%

-5%

5%4%

3%

9%

0%

0%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

Long-Term Average Deliveries (% Change from NAA)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

30%

21%

53%

8%

5%

14%

0%

0%

8%

3%

20%

2%1%

3%

0%

0%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

Wet Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

41%

38%

50%

15%

13%

31%

0% 0%

7%

4%

14%

8% 8%

17%

0% 0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

Above Normal Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

35%

31%

49%

16%

12%

41%

0% 0%

-5%-7%

0%

7%

3%

18%

0% 0%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

Below Normal Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

12% 12%11%

8%

4%

23%

0% 0%

-20% -20%-21%

5%4%

15%

0% 0%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

Dry Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

-6%

-4%

-11%

4%5%

23%

0% 0%

-16% -16% -16%

0% 0%

-2%

0%

0%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

Critical Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

NAA, LOS, & HOSComparisons under

CC, SLR, and HR

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Long-Term Average Deliveries

NAA (no CC)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

NAA (ELT)

ALT4-H1 (ELT)

ALT4-H4 (ELT)

NAA (LLT)

ALT4-H1 (LLT)

ALT4-H4 (LLT)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Wet Year Deliveries

NAA (no CC)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

NAA (ELT)

ALT4-H1 (ELT)

ALT4-H4 (ELT)

NAA (LLT)

ALT4-H1 (LLT)

ALT4-H4 (LLT)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Above Normal Year Deliveries

NAA (no CC)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

NAA (ELT)

ALT4-H1 (ELT)

ALT4-H4 (ELT)

NAA (LLT)

ALT4-H1 (LLT)

ALT4-H4 (LLT)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Below Normal Year Deliveries

NAA (no CC)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

NAA (ELT)

ALT4-H1 (ELT)

ALT4-H4 (ELT)

NAA (LLT)

ALT4-H1 (LLT)

ALT4-H4 (LLT)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAF

Dry Year Deliveries

NAA (no CC)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

NAA (ELT)

ALT4-H1 (ELT)

ALT4-H4 (ELT)

NAA (LLT)

ALT4-H1 (LLT)

ALT4-H4 (LLT)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Total SWP SWP SODM&I

SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract

CVP SODRefuge L2

TAFCritical Year Deliveries

NAA (no CC)

ALT4-H1 (no CC)

ALT4-H4 (no CC)

NAA (ELT)

ALT4-H1 (ELT)

ALT4-H4 (ELT)

NAA (LLT)

ALT4-H1 (LLT)

ALT4-H4 (LLT)