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COAL IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY
Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects
Dr. Nejat Tamzok Planning Manager and Strategic Planning Coordinator / Turkish Coal Enterprises
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program)
Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences
Bilkent University
1
CONTENT I. INTRODUCTION TO COAL
II. THE PAST, TODAY, AND FUTURE OF COAL
III. WORLD COAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
IV. GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS OF COAL
V. COAL, ENVIRONMENT AND TECHNOLOGY
VI. TURKEY’S COAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
VI.I. TURKEY’S ENERGY DEMAND AND COAL
VI.II. TURKEY’S COAL RESOURCES
VI.III. COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY
VI.IV. COAL IMPORTS
VI.V. COAL AND ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN TURKEY
VI.VI. TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY AND PUBLIC POLICIES: ON THE BRINK
OF CHANGE
VI.VII. FUTURE OF DOMESTIC COAL IN TURKEY
REFERENCES
2
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
I. INTRODUCTION
TO
COAL
3
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WHAT IS COAL?
Coal is a combustible, sedimentary,
organic rock, which is composed mainly
of carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.
Coal is a fossil fuel and is the altered
remains of prehistoric vegetation that
originally accumulated in swamps and
peat bogs.
A form of rock rich in organic carbon.
Able to be burned as a source of energy.
Contains; organic carbon, inorganic
elements (Fe, Al, CaCO3, trace metals),
form ash, water.
4
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
COAL FORMATION
5
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
COALIFICATION - RANK OF COAL
6
PEAT LIGNITE SUBBITUMINOUS BITUMINOUS ANTHRACITE
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
CARBON AND HEAT CONTENT OF COAL
7
Meta-anthracite
Anthracite
Semi-anthracite
Low volatile bituminous
Medium volatile bituminous
Hig
h v
ola
tile
bit
um
inou
s
Hig
h v
ola
tile
A b
itu
min
ou
s
Hig
h v
ola
tile
B b
itu
min
ou
s
or
Su
bb
itu
min
ou
s B
Su
bb
itu
min
ou
s B
Su
bb
itu
min
ou
s C
Lig
nit
e 3
.300
GROSS CALORIFIC VALUE (KCAL/KG)
3.9
00
4.6
00
5.3
00
7.2
50
7.8
00
8.9
00
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Source: Stanley P. Schweinfurth
TYPES OF COAL?
8
CARBON/ENERGY CONTENT OF COAL
MOISTURE CONTENT OF COAL
HIGH
HIGH
Low Rank Coals
47%
Hard Coal
53%
Lignite
17%
Sub-
Bituminous
30%
Bituminous
52%
Anthracite
1%
Thermal
Steam Coal
Metallurgical
Coking Coal
% O
F W
OR
LD
RE
SE
RV
ES
USES Largely
power
generation
Power generation,
cement manufacture,
industrial uses
Power generation,
cement manufacture,
industrial uses
Manufacture
of iron and
steel
Domestic/industrial
including smokeless
fuel
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Source: World Coal Institute
FINDING COAL
Coal reserves are discovered
through exploration activities. The
process usually involves creating a
geological map of the area, then
carrying out geochemical and
geophysical surveys, followed by
exploration drilling. This allows an
accurate picture of the area to be
developed.
The area will only ever become a
mine if it is large enough and of
sufficient quality that the coal can
be economically recovered. Once
this has been confirmed, mining
operations begin.
9
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
COAL MINING
10
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
COAL PREPARATION
11
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
USES OF COAL
12
ELECTRICITY GENERATION IRON&STEEL PRODUCTION
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS (e.g. CEMENT FACTORIES)
CHEMICALS
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
II. THE PAST, TODAY, AND FUTURE OF
COAL
13
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1850
1871
1883
1895
1908
1919
1930
1942
1953
1967
1978
1989
2000
2011
2022
2033
% ?
SHORT HISTORY OF COAL - I
14
World energy consumption by source, 1850- 2014 Data: J. Laherrere 2005, IEA Data Services, IEA Key World
Energy Statistics 2005-2013
>2600 years ago in ancient cultures for heating.
1000 BC: the first known commercial use in
China for smelting copper and for casting coins.
Not much use of coal between 400-1200 A.D.
18th and 19th Century Industrial Revolution:
Jump in coal demand. Steam generators,
locomotives, and eventually electric generators.
1910-1920: coal’s share at climax (60%).
1920-1970: rise of oil, fall of coal.
Mid-60’s: king coal left his throne to oil.
Early 70’s: A new rival for coal, natural gas.
Coal’s share drops to 25%.
1970’s – oil crises: end of the retreat period for
coal despite rising environmentalist movements
and growing natural gas demand.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
18
50
18
71
18
83
18
95
19
08
19
19
19
30
19
42
19
53
19
67
19
78
19
89
20
00
20
11
20
22
20
33
%
OilCoalNatural gasBiomassNuclearHydroOther renewables
?
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
SHORT HISTORY OF COAL - II
15
World fossil fuel consumptions, 1999- 2014, Data: IEA Data Services, IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2005-
2014
Expectation of the past: When viewed from 80’s or 90’s, it was not easy to predict that the share of coal in the global energy equation will increase in the future. The estimates made were pointing a continuous decline in the global coal consumption.
Reality of today: However, subsequent developments were totaly opposite of the expectations. All the predictions pointing out that the global coal consumption entered a period of decline crashed with the twenty-first century. There was an explosion in coal production and consumption. New age would almost be exactly a "Coal Age" from the beginning until today.
While global energy consumption increased by only 36 percent in the first 13 years of the new century, the increase in coal consumption took place at a much higher level with 63 percent.
In the same period, the growth rate in the global oil consumption was only 17 percent and the increase in global natural gas consumption was 39 percent.
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
450019
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
Mto
e
Oil Coal Natural gas
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WORLD TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
BY SOURCE (2012)
16
Coal
29,0%
Oil
31,4%
Natural gas
21,3%
Nuclear
4,8%
Hydro
2,4%
Biofuels and
waste
10,0%
Other
1,1%
WORLD TOTAL:
13.371 Mtoe
COAL’S SHARE:
3.878 Mtoe
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: IEA
WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION
BY SOURCE (2012)
17
Coal
40,4%
Oil
5,0%
Natural gas
22,5% Nuclear
10,9%
Hydro
16,2%
Other
5,0% WORLD TOTAL:
22.668 TWh
COAL’S SHARE:
9.158 Twh
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Source: IEA
FUTURE OF COAL
18
Weight of fossil fuels in the global
energy consumption:
1973: %97,2 and 2012: %91,7
Fierce competition between the three
fossil fuels today and probably for
some more decades.
In the race between fossil fuels in the
last century, coal's performance was
much higher against its arch rivals, oil
and natural gas. Coal has caught a
serious chance to recapture the
podium.
The number of analyses pointing out
that the coal consumption will pass the
oil consumption within a few years has
increased each year.
Primary
Energy
Electricity
Generation
1973 2012 1973 2012
Coal 24,6 29,0 38,3 40,4
Oil 46,1 31,4 24,8 5,0
Natural gas 16,0 21,3 12,1 22,5
Nuclear 0,9 4,8 3,3 10,9
Biofuels/waste 10,5 10,0 - -
Hydro 1,8 2,4 20,9 16,2
Other 0,1 1,1 0,6 5,0
Primary energy and electricity generation by source,
1973-2012, Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2005-2014
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
FUTURE OF COAL
19
Year Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Other
2012 29,0 31,4 21,3 4,8 13,5
2040 (IEA New Policy Scenario) 24,3 26,0 24,2 6,6 18,9
2040 (IEA Current Policies Scenario) 29,2 26,6 23,7 5,0 15,4
2040 (IEA 450 Scenario) 16,6 20,7 22,2 10,7 29,8
2040 (DOE/EIA Reference Scenario) 26,8 28,4 23,3 7,0 14,5
2040 (DOE/EIA High Economic Growth) 31,4 27,3 21,6 6,3 13,5
2040 (DOE/EIA Low Economic Growth) 24,8 28,2 24,2 7,7 15,0
2040 (DOE/EIA High Oil Price Case) 30,2 27,0 22,1 6,5 14,1
2040 (DOE/EIA Low Oil Price Case) 26,8 29,6 22,8 6,8 14,0
PROJECTIONS ON WORLD TPES BY SOURCE (%)
Year Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Other
2012 40,5 5,0 22,5 10,8 21,2
2040 (IEA New Policy Scenario) 30,5 1,2 23,7 11,6 33,0
2040 (IEA Current Policies Scenario) 40,3 1,3 24,6 8,8 25,1
2040 (IEA 450 Scenario) 13,1 0,7 16,5 18,4 51,3
2040 (DOE/EIA Reference Scenario) 35,6 1,7 24,0 14,1 24,6
PROJECTIONS ON WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE (%)
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
FUTURE OF COAL
20
When we look at its first 13 years, the twenty-first century showed a
"Coal Age" feature. During this period, compared with total energy
consumption or competitor energy resources, global coal
consumption grew much faster. Now the matter of curiosity is how
the global energy equation to be shaped in the rest of the century.
Will rise of the coal continue at the same rate? Which will be the
winner in the competition between fossil fuels? And most
importantly, at what level will be the chance to compete with
alternative or clean energy sources, for fossil fuels.
And a final question: Where will coal go?
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
III. WORLD
COAL INDUSTRY
OUTLOOK
21
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WORLD COAL RESERVES
22
Anthra
cite and
bitumin
ous
403 BT
Subbitu
minous
287 BT
Lignite
201 BT WORLD TOTAL:
892
billion tonnes Source: Encyclopǣdia Britannica
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WORLD COAL RESERVES
23
US
237,3
Russia
157
China
114,5
Australia
76,4
India
60,6
Germany
40,5
Ukraine
33,9
Kazakhstan
33,6
S.Africa
30,2 Other
108
billion tons
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: WEC
WORLD COAL PRODUCTION BY YEARS
24
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: BP
WORLD COAL PRODUCTION, 2014
25
China
3.874
US
907 India
644
Australia
492
Indonesia
458
Russia
358
S.Africa
261
Germany
186
Poland
137
Kazakhstan
109
Colombia
89
Canada
69
Turkey
64
Other
513 million tons
Data: BP 2015, Turkey’s 2014 coal production figure is 70,6 Mtons in BP but 64,1 Mtons in IEA and MENR
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WORLD COAL CONSUMPTION BY YEARS
26
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.50019
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Mto
e
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: BP
WORLD COAL CONSUMPTIONS, 2014
27
China
3.909
India
907
US
835
Germany
236
Russia
201
Japan
188
S.Africa
174 S.Korea
133
Australia
116
Turkey
94
Other
1.129
million tons
China
1.962
US
453
India
360
Japan
127 S.Africa
89
Russia
85
S.Korea
85
Germany
77 Indonesia
61
Poland
53
Australia
44
Taiwan
41
Turkey
36
Other
408
mtoe
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: BP
PER CAPITA COAL CONSUMPTIONS, 2014
28
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
tce/
cap
ita
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
COAL AND ELECTRICITY GENERATION
29
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2040
2030
2020
2012
1990
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Other
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0 92,8 84,2
76,1 75,7 71,1 68,8 61,5 53,8 48,7 45,6 38,3
29,3 28,3 %
Coal’s share in global electricity generation by years (IEA current policies scenario)
Coal’s share in electricity generation by countries, 2012
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: IEA
WORLD COAL TRADE
30
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
Steam coal Coking coal
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: IEA
WORLD COAL TRADE
31
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Ind
ones
ia
Au
stra
lia
Russ
ia
US
Colo
mbia
S.A
fric
a
Can
ada
Kaz
akhst
an
Mong
oli
a
N.K
ore
a
Vie
tnam
Pola
nd
Th
aila
nd
Bra
zil
Ital
y
Spai
n
Mal
esia
Tu
rkey
Fra
nce
Net
her
land
UK
Ger
man
y
Tai
wan
S.K
ore
a
Ind
ia
Jap
an
Chin
a
Oth
er
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
Export Import
WORLD COAL TRADE, 2013
32
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: IEA
IV. GLOBAL
GEOPOLITICS
OF COAL
33
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WORLD COAL RESERVES
34
I - Question marks on adequacy and reliability of global coal reserves - Sufficiency problem
119
109
59.6
54.1 47.3
52.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Coal Gas Oil
Yea
rs
00: WEC
00: BP
Remaining lifespan of fossil fuels (years) Data: WEC, BP
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
Yea
rs
Coal
Oil
Gas
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
20
12
20
16
20
20
20
24
20
28
Yea
rs Coal
Oil
Gas
Lifespan of fossil fuels by years
Lifespan of coal with a consumption rate of 4.5%/y
?
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WORLD COAL RESERVES
35
I - Question marks on adequacy and reliability of global coal reserves - Sufficiency problem
World coal reserv figures and remaining lifespan of reserves are seriously
controversial.
That the sources used to collect the world coal reserve figures generally not
reliable, old dated and that the numbers exaggerated are frequently put
forwarded.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
WORLD COAL RESERVES
36
II – Control of a small number of country on the large portion of reserves
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
%
Indonesia
S.Africa
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Germany
India
Australia
China
Russia
US
Shares of top ten countries in global coal reserves Only one country has 26.6% of global
coal reserves while this figure is 15.7% for oil reserves and 18.2% for natural gas reserves.
Ten countries have 91.1% of global coal reserves while this figure is 85% for oil reserves and 79.1% for natural gas reserves.
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
%
Number of country
Coal Oil Gas
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: WEC
WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
37
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
%
Other
Asia-Pacific
Former Soviet
Union
EU-27
North America
III – Axis shift in production and consumption geographies
Shift in the production geography
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
%
Other
Asia-Pacific
Former Soviet
Union
EU-27
North America
Shift in the consumption geography
(BP 2015)
While US and EU-27 aggregate share in the global coal production was 44% and Asia-Pacific share was
31% in 1985, this table has reversed today and the shares of parties have been 17% and 69% respectively.
While US and EU-27 aggregate share in the global coal consumption was approximately 45% and Asia-
Pacific share was 32% in 1985, the shares of parties have been 19% and 72% today.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: BP
GLOBAL COAL MARKETS AND COMPETITION
38
IV – Weak competition in global coal markets
Increasingly greater portion of global coal
production is collected in the hands of a
smaller number of countries.
While approximately 86% of total coal exports
made by only 8 countries in 1991, over 90% is
made by only 8 countries today.
The effectiveness of a small number of multi-
national companies in the global coal markets
is much greater extent than many other
commodity markets. Most of the world coal
trade is under the control of few large firms.
World coal trade seem to be stuck in a
monopoly of only 10 countries and an
economic union. Five of the ten countries are
the exporters and the other five and EU-27 are
the importers. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
%
Kazakhstan
Canada
S. Africa
Colombia
US
Russia
Australia
Indonesia
Shares of top eight countries in global coal market
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: BP
GLOBAL COAL MARKET PRICES
39
V – Change in price behavior
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
US
D/t
on
Northwest Europe marker price
US C.Appalachian spot price index
Japan coking coal import cif price
Japan steam coal import cif price
Asian Marker price
Australia, coking coal, fob
Canada, coking coal
US, coking coal, fas
S.Africa, coking coal
Australia, steam coal, fob
Canada, steam coal
US, steam coal, fas
Colombia, steam coal
Indonesia, steam coal
S.Africa, steam coal
World coal prices by years, Data: BP, IEA
Coal prices have fluctuated in a very narrow range until 2004. As of that year both steam and coking coal
prices entered into a rapid rising period.
While coal prices were almost constant in a 16-year period between 1988 and 2003, since 2004 coal has
seen unusual price increases in its 200-year history.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
V. COAL,
ENVIRONMENT
AND TECHNOLOGY
40
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE, TECHNOLOGY ISSUES,
AND THE FUTURE OF COAL
41
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
19
65
19
72
19
79
19
86
19
93
20
00
20
07
20
14
CO2 Emissions
(Mtons)
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
19
65
19
72
19
79
19
86
19
93
20
00
20
07
20
14
Coal Consumptions
(Mtoe)
Other
Total Asia
Pacific
EU27
North
America
The relationship between the use of coal and CO2 emissions, Data: BP
I – CO2 emissions
Mankind cannot give up to
use coal.
However, coal mining and
coal utilization are the set of
activities that also have an
impact on the environment
in all stages and that cause
pollution at certain levels.
CO2 emissions that emerge
as a result of burning coal
and that cause global
warming is the most
important problem arising
from coal today.
In what way the effects of
coal causing global warming
can be eliminated, is one of
the most important world
issues today.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE, TECHNOLOGY ISSUES,
AND THE FUTURE OF COAL
42
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Other
Japan
India
EU-27
US
China
2014
65% of world CO2 emissions are
emitted by five countries and
EU-27.
I – CO2 emissions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Other
Gas
Oil
Coal
2012
44% of world CO2 emissions
arise from the use of coal.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Other
Industry
and constr.
Electricity
and heat
2012
71% of coal-sourced CO2
emissions is from electricity and
heat production.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: IEA, BP
CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE, TECHNOLOGY ISSUES,
AND THE FUTURE OF COAL
43
II – Reducing CO2 emissions through improved efficiency and CO2 capture at coal-fired pp
Average worldwide
av
erag
e C
O2
em
issio
ns p
er u
nit
of e
lectr
icit
y
gen
erate
d a
t co
al-
fir
ed p
lan
ts (
gC
O 2
/kW
h)
30%
1,116 g CO2/kWh
480 g coal/kWh EU
38%
881 g CO2/kWh
379 g coal/kWh State-of-the-art
45%
743 g CO2/kWh
320 g coal/kWh Steam power plant
700°C technology
Efficiency
CO2 emissions
Fuel consumption
about 50%
669 g CO2/kWh
288 g coal/kWh CCS technology
But: Efficiency loss of 7 to 12 points
2010 2020 Time
-13%
-27%
-34%
-90%
CO
2 r
ed
ucti
on
Source: EURACOAL
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
FUTURE OF COAL
44
The future direction of coal, in large part, will depend on the developments
that took place on its competing energy sources. However, when viewed
from today, the main factors that will determine the future of coal are likely
to arise from its own internal dynamics of the coal industry.
In this context, it is only possible to make an analysis related with the future
of coal that played a decisive role on the world economies for almost two
hundred years by examining a number of parameters that are separated from
each other, but constantly interacting with one another by the cause-and-
effect relationships and that can be collected under the topics of geopolitics,
environment and technology.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
VI. TURKEY’S
COAL INDUSTRY
OUTLOOK
45
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Soma Coal Mine, Turkey
VI.I. TURKEY’S
ENERGY DEMAND
AND COAL
46 Muğla Milas Mine, Turkey
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCES
47
1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Natural gas 0,0 0,0 4,6 19,5 37,6
Oil 12,6 17,5 28,4 31,8 33,9
Domestic coal 5,2 7,9 11,8 10,4 14,3
Imported coal 0,0 1,0 4,9 12,2 20,3
Hydro 0,2 1,0 2,9 3,0 5,1
Wood-waste 6,4 8,1 7,1 5,7 4,3
Other 0,0 0,3 0,6 1,3 4,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mtoe
1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Natural gas 0,0 0,0 7,7 23,2 32,2
Oil 51,4 49,1 47,1 37,9 26,6
Domestic coal 21,3 22,0 19,5 12,3 15,8
Imported coal 0,0 2,9 8,1 14,6 15,5
Hydro 0,9 2,7 4,8 3,6 3,9
Wood-waste 26,1 22,5 11,9 6,8 3,1
Other 0,2 0,8 0,9 1,5 2,8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%
Consumption growth rate is 43% in the last ten
years and 100% in the last twenty years
Total 24,5 35,7 60,3 83,9 120,3
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION BY SOURCES
48
1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Coal 5,3 7,9 11,5 10,8 15,5
Hydro 0,2 1,0 2,9 3,0 5,1
Wood-waste 6,4 8,1 7,1 5,7 4,3
Oil 3,7 2,3 4,1 2,5 2,5
Natural gas 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,5 0,4
Other 0,0 0,1 0,6 1,2 4,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mtoe
1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Coal 33,7 40,7 43,7 45,3 48,4
Hydro 1,4 5,0 11,0 12,8 16,0
Wood-waste 41,0 41,7 27,0 24,2 13,5
Oil 23,6 12,0 15,5 10,5 7,8
Gas 0,0 0,0 0,7 2,1 1,4
Other 0,3 0,5 2,1 5,1 12,9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%
Total 15,7 19,3 26,4 23,8 31,9 Production growth rate is 34% in the last ten
years and 21% in the last twenty years
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
ENERGY PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND COAL’S
SHARE IN TURKEY
49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.0001970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
%
thou
san
d t
oe
Energy consumption
Energy production
Coal production
Ratio of energy production to consumption
Ratio of coal production to energy consumption
Turkey’s energy production could be
increased by 21% in the last twenty
years while country's energy
consumption rose by 100%. The
increase in coal production is 34% in
the last two decades.
Therefore, growth rate increase in
energy production is significantly
behind that of energy consumption. The
ratio of domestic production to
consumption has fallen under 27% in
2013 while it was 44% twenty years
ago.
Likewise, the ratio of domestic coal
production to energy consumption has
also declined. This rate has been 12,8%
while it was 19,2% in 1993 and 12,9%
in 2003.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
VI.II. TURKEY’S
COAL
RESOURCES
50 Soma Coal Mine, Turkey
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
51
TURKEY’S COAL RESOURCES
"Bu Artış Bizi Doğalgaz İthal Etmekten Kurtarıyor.» Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanı son 10 yılda 200 milyar dolarlık linyit rezervi bulunduğunu söyledi.
This reserve saves us from the import of natural gas.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister said that $ 200 billion
of lignite reserves discovered in the last 10 years.
Resource: The amount of coal that may be
present in a deposit or coalfield. This does
not take into account the feasibility of
mining the coal economically. Not all
resources are recoverable using current
technology.
Reserves: Reserves can be defined in terms
of proved (or measured) reserves and
probable (or indicated) reserves. Probable
reserves have been estimated with a lower
degree of confidence than proved reserves.
Proved Reserves: Reserves that are not
only considered to be recoverable but can
also be recovered economically. This means
they take into account what current mining
technology can achieve and the economics
of recovery. Proved reserves will therefore
change according to the price of coal; if the
price of coal is low, proved reserves will
decrease.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
323
941
426
38
104
105 73 23
34
1453
238
280
101
139
1934
438
18 704
405
99
637
4832
1311
Turkey has hardcoal resources of 1.3 billion tons and lignite resources of 15.3 billion tons.
52
TURKEY’S COAL RESOURCES
COAL RESOURCES IN SOME REGIONS (million tons)
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
53
TURKEY’S COAL RESOURCES
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Turkey’s hard coal resources in the Zonguldak basin are estimated at some
1.3 billion tons of which 512 million tons are in the proven category. The
calorific value of hard coal resources varies between 6,200 and 7,200
kcal/kg.
Lignite deposits are spread across the country, with proven reserves of
approximately 15.3 billion tons. The quality of Turkish lignites is generally
very poor and only around 6% of the reserves have a heat content of more
than 3,000 kcal/kg.
VI.III. COAL
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
IN TURKEY
54 Afşin-Elbistan Coal Mine, Turkey
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
55
COAL SUPPLY IN TURKEY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Mto
ns
Coal import
Lignite production
Hardcoal production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Mto
e
Coal import
Lignite production
Hardcoal production
In 2014 >> Saleable lignite production: 62.6 Mtons Saleable hardcoal production: 1.8 Mtons Coal import: 30 Mtons
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
2 1
2
10
7
1
10
12
8
1
4 5
1 9
14
41
1
5
3
2
2
22
1
6
4
1
4
1
3
22
1 15
1 10
1
2
4
2
46
1
2
3
1
27
NUMBER OF COAL MINE LICENCES, 2014
Number of coal production licenses : 470 (public: 70, private: 400)
Number of coal mines in production in 2013: 260
56
PRODUCTION SITES
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
0,5
5,0
0,7
0,6
0,2
0,6 1,8 0,4
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,4
0,3
0,1
0,7
8,5
13,5
10,0
2,4
0,3
1,3
12,0
1,8
Total saleable production: 60.4 Mtones in 2013
57.5 Mtons lignite (45.5 Mtons public and 12 Mtons private) 2 Mtons hardcoal (public)
57
PRODUCTION SITES
PRODUCTIONS, MTONS, 2013
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
TTK: Turkish Hardcoal Enterprises (state owned)
TKİ: Turkish Coal Enterprises (state owned)
EÜAŞ: Electricity Generation Company (state owned)
(*) Redevance, procurement or transfer of operating rights
58
PRODUCERS
TTK
71%
TTK(*)
29%
HARDCOAL PRODUCTION, 2014
EÜAŞ
22%
EÜAŞ(*)
9%
TKİ
16% TKİ(*)
14%
Private
Sector
39%
LIGNITE PRODUCTION, 2014
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: TTK, TKİ, EÜAŞ, MENR
59
CONSUMPTIONS
Iron-steel
33%
Electricity
generation
57%
Heating
and other
industry
10%
DOMESTIC HARDCOAL
CONSUMPTION, 2013
Electricity
generation
82%
Industry
8%
Heating
7%
Social aid
program
3%
LIGNITE CONSUMPTION, 2012
Electricity
generation
36%
Iron and
steel
industry
16%
Other
industry
14%
Heating
34%
IMPORTED COAL CONSUMPTION,
2012
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: TTK, TKİ, EÜAŞ, MENR
VI.IV. COAL
IMPORTS
60
Tunçbilek Coal Mine, Turkey
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
61
ENERGY IMPORT OF TURKEY
Oil
38,2 Mtoe
Gas
37,6 Mtoe
Coal, coke,
petrocoke
20,1 Mtoe
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
62
TURKEY ADVENTURE OF IMPORTED COAL
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
30.000.000
35.000.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.00019
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
ton MW
Imported coal-fired
power plant capacity
Coal import
Coal imports carried out in Turkey since 1973. Imports remained below 10 million
tons until 2000. It increased rapidly to over 20 million tons in 2000s. In 2012 it saw 30
million tons.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
63
COAL IMPORTS BY COUNTRIES
Colombia
31,6%
Russia
29,1%
US
14,5%
S.Africa
13,4%
Ukraine
3,8%
Australia
2,1%
Canada
1,7%
Other
3,8%
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
2014 Data: Turkish Statistical Institute
64
IMPORTED COAL CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS
Electricity generation
36%
Iron and steel industry
16%
Other industry
14%
Heating
34%
2012
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: MENR
VI.V. COAL
AND ELECTRICITY GENERATION
IN TURKEY
65
Afşin-Elbistan Coal-Fired Power Plant, Turkey
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
66
COAL’S SHARE IN POWER PLANT CAPACITY
Domestic
coal
12,1% Imported
coal
8,4%
Other
fuels
79,5%
October, 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
%
GW
Domestic coal
Imported coal
Other fuels
Domestic coal's share
Imported coal's share
Domestic coal’s share in installed electricity capacity dropped to 12.2% from 30.2% between the years 1994 and 2014. The share of imported coal increased to 6.5% from zero in the same period.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: Turkish Electricity Transmission Company
67
COAL’S SHARE IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Domestic coal’s share in electricity generation was 13.6% and imported coal’s share was 13% in 2014.
Domest
ic coal
16,0%
Importe
d coal
13,9% Other
fuels
70,1%
2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
% GW
h
Domestic coal
Imported coal
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: Turkish Electricity Transmission Company
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
MW MW
Annual capacity increment Total domestic coal-fired plant capacity
2000-2014
1943 MW
1980-2000
5610 MW
… - 1980
1370 MW
Est
abli
shm
ent
of
TK
İ (1
95
7)
Oil
crises
Law on
state-run
mines,
2172
(1978)
Est
abli
shm
ent
of
TT
K (
1982)
Entr
y o
f E
ÜA
Ş (
1989)
68
DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Total installed capacity (October, 2015) 72.156 MW
Domestic hardcoal-fired capacity 335 MW (%0.5)
Domestic lignite-fired capacity
(including asphaltite)
8.529 MW (%11.8)
Imported coal-fired capacity 6.064 MW (%8.4)
Total electricity generation (2014) 251.963 GWh
Generation from domestic coal-fired
power plants
40.223 GWh (%16.0)
Generation from imported coal-fired
power plants
35.086 GWh (%13.9)
New plant capacity installed in 2000-2014
Domestic coal 2.354 MW (%4.6)
Imported coal 6.064 MW (%11.8)
Natural gas 22.319 MW (%43.6)
Renewables 5.193 MW (%10,1)
Hydro 15.495 MW (%30,3)
Liquid fuels -224 MW
Total 51.201 MW
Domestic coal-fired large-scale power plants
Power plant MW Power plant MW Power plant MW
Afşin-Elbistan A 1.355 Kangal 457 Soma B 990
Afşin-Elbistan B 1.440 Kemerköy 630 Tunçbilek A 65
Çan 320 Orhaneli 210 Tunçbilek B 300
Çatalağzı 300 Seyitömer 600 Yatağan 630
Çayırhan 620 Soma A 44 Yeniköy 420
Weighted
average age of
total 43 power
plant units:
24
69
COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS IN TURKEY
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
1320MW
725MW
1605MW
1920MW
600MW 1500MW
350MW
1000 MW 1390 MW 1200 MW
190MW
İnşaat halinde
İşletmede
In operation: 5.463 MW
Share in total installed capacity: 8%
In construction: 6.345 MW
Share in total installed capacity: 9%
70
IMPORTED COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN
OPERATION OR CONSTRUCTION, 2015
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: Energy Market Regulatory Authority
71
IMPORTED COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN
EXAMINATION FOR PRODUCTION LICENSE, 2015
8199 MW
1200 MW
800 MW 4865 MW
1220 MW
200 MW
1860 MW
2772 MW
2400 MW
4065 MW 660 MW
1010 MW
1550 MW
In examination: 30.800 MW
Share in total installed capacity : 45%
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: Energy Market Regulatory Authority
72
COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN OPERATION,
CONSTRUCTION OR PRE-EXAMINATION, 2015
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Domestic coal Imported coal
MW
In operation
In construction
In examination
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Domestic coal
consumption
Domestic coal CO2
emission
Imported coal
consumption
Imported coal CO2
emission
bin
ton
In examination
In construction
In operation
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
Data: Energy Market Regulatory Authority
VI.VI. TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
AND PUBLIC POLICIES:
ON THE BRINK OF CHANGE
73
Tunçbilek Coal Mine, Turkey
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
74
POLICY MAKER IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY: MENR
MINISTER UNDERSECRETARY
GD OF ENERGY
WORKS
GD OF MINING
WORKS
GD OF RENEW-
ABLE ENERGY
GD OF OIL WORKS DEPT. OF STRATEGY
DEVELOP.
GD OF FOREIGN
RELATIONS&EU
DEPT. OF NUCLEAR ENERGY
DEPT. OF SUBS.
AND REL.INST.
DEPT. OF TRANSIT
OIL PIPELINES
DEPT. OF FINAN.&
ADM. AFFAIRS
GD OF MINERAL RESEARCH AND
EXPLORATION
TURKISH ATOMIC
ENERGY AUTHORITY
HEAD ORGANIZATION
SUBSIDIARIES
RELATED INSTITUTIONS
ELECTRICITY
GENERATION CO.
ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CO
ELECTR. TRADE& CONTRACTING CO.
TURKISH
PETROLEUM COM.
BOTAŞ PETROLEUM
PIPELINE CORP.
TURKISH COAL
ENTERPRISES
TURK. HARDCOAL
ENTERPRISES
ETI MINE WORKS
GD
TEMSAN
ASSOCIATED INSTITUTIONS
ENERGY MARKET
REGULATORY AUTHORITY
NATIONAL BORON
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
75
SOME RELATED LEGISLATION
Constitution of the Republic of Turkey, Decree Law on State Economic Enterprises, Law on the Organization and Duties of the Ministry of Energy and natural resources, Law on Privatization Applications, Decree Law on on Civil Servants, Turkish Criminal Code, Labour Law, Law on Special Safety Services, Law on Trade Unions, Law on Public Sector Employees’ Union, Law on Social Security and General Health Insurance, Mining Law, Law on Environment, Law on Municipalities, Law on Provincial Administration, Village Law, Forest Law, Electricity Market Law, Energy Efficiency Law, Law on Protection of Cultural and Natural Heritage, Public Tenders Law, Law on Public Tender Contracts, Turkish Code of Commerce, Tax Laws, Law of Regulating Public Financing and Debt Management, Banking Laws, Decree Law on State Economic Enterprises, Decree law on the Establishment and Duties of State Planning Organization and too many more…
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
76
EMPLOYMENT
There is no any comprehensive study to determine the
employment in the sector.
However, direct employment in the coal industry is estimated to
be around 55.500 people; 18.500 in hardcoal sector and 37.000
in lignite sector.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
77
TRANSFORMATION IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
Turkey’s coal industry is in the process of a significant structural
transformation.
Given the gaining momentum of the recent work in this
direction, public enterprises are highly likely to leave their
places to the private sector in a short time.
Looking at the developments, it seems that Turkey’s coal
industry is on the verge of a major transformation.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
78
Public institutions increasingly prefer service procurement from
private companies for production and overburden removal
activities instead of using their own machinery park.
I – SERVICE PROCUREMENT
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
TRANSFORMATION IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
79
II – PRIVATIZATION OF THERMAL POWER PLANTS AND COAL FIELDS
Model: Private placement for power plant and transfer of operating rights for coal fields
Power plant Fuel
Plant
capacity
(MW)
Coal
reserve
(Mton)
Ownership Mine license Date of
privatization
Seyitömer Lignite 600 170 EÜAŞ=>Private TKİ=>Private June 2013
Yatağan Lignite 630 150 EÜAŞ=>Private TKİ=>Private May 2014
Yeniköy Lignite 420 250
EÜAŞ=>Private TKİ=>Private April 2014
Kemerköy Lignite 630 EÜAŞ=>Private TKİ=>Private
Kangal Lignite 457 90 EÜAŞ=>Private EÜAŞ=>Private August 2013
Çatalağzı Hardcoal 300 EÜAŞ=>Private TTK May 2014
Soma Lignite 990 720 EÜAŞ=>Private TKİ December 2014
Çanakkale Çan Lignite 320 75 EÜAŞ TKİ
Orhaneli Lignite 210 35 EÜAŞ=>Private TKİ=>Private December 2014
Tunçbilek B Lignite 300 250 EÜAŞ=>Private TKİ December 2014
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
TRANSFORMATION IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
80
II – PRIVATIZATION OF COAL FIELDS
Planned model: Public-private partnership + international agreement
Power plant Fuel
Plant
capacity
(MW)
Coal
reserve
(Mton)
Ownership Mine
license
Date of
privatization
Afşin-Elbistan A Lignite 1355 5000 EÜAŞ EÜAŞ ?
Afşin-Elbistan B Lignite 1440
Konya
Karapınar Lignite 2000 EÜAŞ EÜAŞ ?
Afyon-Dinar Lignite 1000 EÜAŞ EÜAŞ ?
Eskişehir-Alpu Lignite 1000 EÜAŞ EÜAŞ ?
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
TRANSFORMATION IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
81
II – PRIVATIZATION OF COAL FIELDS
Model: Transfer of coal-fields to the private sector provided that they will build power plants
Power plant Fuel
Plant
capacity
(MW)
Coal
reserve
(Mton)
Date of
commencement of
electricity
generation
AdanaTufanbeyli Lignite 700 323 2018
Bingöl Karlıova Lignite 150 104 2019
Bolu Göynük Lignite 270 38 2015
Bursa Orhaneli, Keles, Davutlar Lignite 270 106 2018
Manisa Soma Lignite 450 720 2018
Kütahya Tunçbilek Lignite 300 262 2019
Eskişehir-Mihalıççık Lignite 290 130 2016
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
TRANSFORMATION IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
82
TRANSFORMATION IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
COAL PRODUCTION BY YEARS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
801
99
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
Mto
ns
Private sector
EÜAŞ
TKİ
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
83
EXPECTATIONS AFTER TRANSFORMATION Increase in productivity Decrease in cost and price Rise in occupational safety and health standards Ecofriendly operations Growth in domestic coal-fired electricity generation capacity
TRANSFORMATION IN TURKISH COAL INDUSTRY
BUT,
GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF NEWCOMERS Weak institutionalization Low levels of institutional culture Weak capital structures Minimal investments to human resources, coal explorations, R&D,
occupational safety-health and environment. These are seen as only cost-increasing factors.
Limited engineering quality
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
VI.VII. FUTURE OF DOMESTIC COAL
IN TURKEY
84
Tunçbilek Coal Mine, Turkey
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
85
ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
0
50
100
150
200
250
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
2027
mto
e
Primary
energy
demand
Final energy
demand
Power plant's
demand
Household
heating
demand
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Ele
ctri
city
gen
erati
on
, G
Wh
Inst
all
ed c
ap
aci
ty, M
W
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Electricity
generation
(GWh)
86
PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND AND
DOMESTIC COAL SUPPLY
Assuming that no change in the existing lignite production, the ratio of domestic coal production to primary energy demand will drop to 9.8% in 2020 and to 6.4% in 2030.
Domestic coal production should be raised to 108 million tons in 2020 and to 165 million tons in 2030 to maintain its current share in total primary energy demand.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
100
.00
0
200
.00
0
300
.00
0
Rat
io o
f co
al p
rod
uct
ion
to
TP
ES
(%
)
Coal production (thousand ton)
2020
2030
87
ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY AND
DOMESTIC COAL
The ratio of total installed
capacity of domestic coal-
fired power plants to the
installed capacity of the
electricity system will fall
to the level of 8.8% in
2020 and 4.7% in 2030 in
case of no new domestic
coal-fired plants will put
into service.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
10.0
00
20.0
00
30.0
00
Rat
io o
f do
mes
tic
coal
-fir
ed c
apac
ity
to
to
tal
capac
ity o
f sy
stem
(%
)
Domestic coal-fired capacity (MW)
2020
2030
REFERENCES (I)
88
• British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2015. • Energy Watch Group, Coal: Resources and Future Production, EWG-Paper No. 1/07, 2007. • European Association for Coal and Lignite (EURACOAL), A Strategy for Clean Coal, Brussels, November
2012. • European Association for Coal and Lignite (EURACOAL), Coal Fuel for the 21th Century, Brussels. • European Association for Coal and Lignite (EURACOAL), Coal Industry Across Europe 2011, Brussels,
2011. • European Commission DG JRC Institute for Energy, The Future of Coal, Netherlands, February 2007. • Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy
Resources 2010, Hanover, 2009. • Global CCS Institute, Large Scale CCS Projects, <http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/projects/large-scale-
ccs-projects>, Erişim tarihi: 19 March 2015. • IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB), Power Generation from Coal - Measuring and Reporting
Efficiency Performance and CO2 Emissions, Paris, 2010. • International Energy Agency, Coal Information 2015. Paris. • International Energy Agency, CO₂ Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Paris, 2014. • International Energy Agency, Data Services, <http://wds.iea.org >. • International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2010: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050,
OECD/IEA, Paris, 2010. • International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics 2003-2014. • International Energy Agency, Natural Gas Information 2014, Paris. • International Energy Agency, Oil Information 2014, Paris. • International Energy Agency, Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2014, OECD/IEA, Paris, 2014. • Kavalov, B., Peteves, S. D., The Future of Coal, DG JRC Institute for Energy, February 2007.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
REFERENCES (II)
89
• Laherrère, J., “Peak oil and other peaks”, Presentation at the CERN meeting, 3 Ekim 2005. • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Future of Coal, 2007. • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies,
<https://sequestration.mit.edu/index.html>, Access date : 19 March 2015. • Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Energy Balance Tables, 1970-2015. • Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Strategic Plan, 2015-2019. • Stanley P. Schweinfurth, An Introduction to Coal Quality, Chapter C of The National Coal Resource
Assessment Overview, Edited by Brenda S. Pierce and Kristin O. Dennen, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1625–F, U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey.
• Tamzok, N., “Türkiye Enerji Politikaları İçerisinde Kömürün Önemi”, TMMOB V. Enerji Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı, Ankara, 21-23 Aralık 2005.
• Tamzok, N., “Küreselleşme, Serbestleşme ve Kömür Endüstrisi” [Globalization, Liberalization and Coal Industry], Temiz Kömür Teknolojileri ve Yakma Teknikleri Semineri Bildiriler Kitabı [Seminear on Clean Coal Technologies and Combustion Techniques, Proceedings Book], Afşin-Elbistan, November 2007.
• Tamzok, N., Linyitlerin Türkiye Enerji Sektöründeki Yeri (1970-2030) [Lignites Role in Turkish Energy Sector, 1970-2030], Ankara, August 2013.
• Tamzok, N., “Kömürün Geleceği” [Future of Coal], 8th Energy Symposium Proceedings Book, İstanbul, November 2011.
• The Chamber of Mining Engineers of Turkey, 2015. Energy and Coal Report (Turkish). Mehmet Güler et al., Ankara, July 2015, p.80-85.
• Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, Electricity Generation and Transmission Statistics, 1970-2015. • Turkish Statistical Institute, Coal Import Statistics, 2014. • World Coal Institue (WCI), The Coal Resource - A Comprehensive Overview of Coal, London-UK, 2005. • World Energy Council (WEC), Survey of Energy Resources 2010, London, 2010.
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University
90
THANK YOU…
Dr. Nejat Tamzok
https://independent.academia.edu/NejatTamzok
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dr_Nejat_Tamzok/contributions
Coal in the World and in Turkey – Outlook, geopolitics, policies and future prospects, Dr. Nejat Tamzok
Energy Economics, Policy and Security (Master of Arts Program ) - Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences – Bilkent University