Coal India Valuation Model

INDEX1. Company Info2. Income Statement3. Balance Sheet4. Cash Flow Statement5. Ratio Analysis6. DCF Analysis7. Risk Analysis

Company Details Market DetailsCompany Name Coal India Limited BSE CodeIndustry Type Mining/Minerals NSE CodeCountry of Incorporation India Face Value (INR)Year of Incorporation 1973 Share OutstandingsCompany Type Public IPO Price Band (INR)Web-site Issue Date

Back

www.coalindia.in

Coal India Limited (CIL)

Coal India Ltd. Schedule 'A' Navratna' Publice sector under Ministry of Coal, Govt of India. The compnay is the largest coal producing company in the world based on their raw cola production. Also they are the largest reserve holder in the world based on their reserve base. The company produces non-cocking coal and coaking coal of various grades for diverse applications. Most of their coal production comes from open cast mines.



http://www.coalindia.in/

Market DetailsBSE Code 533278NSE Code COALINDIAFace Value (INR) 10Share Outstandings 6316.36 croresIPO Price Band (INR) 225-245Issue Date 18-Oct-10





Reported Currency - INR (in millions)2006

Assigned Feature Particulars Actual

INCOMESales 287,018Coal Issued for other Purpose 20,540Accretion in Stock 4,838

% of Sales 1.7%Other Income 27,691

Total Revenues Total Sales Revenue 340,088Y-O-Y

EXPENDITURESRaw Material 81,039

% of Sales 28.2%Y-O-Y

Employee's Remuneration & Social Overhead 111,557% of Sales 38.9%

Contratual Expenses 19,745% of Revenue 5.8%

Y-O-YMiscelleaneous Expenses 13,281

% of Revenue 3.9%Y-O-Y

Operating Cost Total COGS 225,622

Gross Profit 114,465% of Revenue 33.7%

Financial Expenses Interest 909% of Total Debt

Operating Cost Overburden removal Adjustment 12,099% of Revenue 3.6%

Y-O-YOperating Cost Finacial/Commitement Charges 283

D&A Depretiation 13,154Operating Cost Impairment 319Operating Cost Provision/Write-off 445

Total Operating Cost 27,209

Operating Income Operating Income 88,165

Back Coal India Limited (Income Statement)

C17

Ritesh :Includes Consumption of Coal, Consumption of Stores & Spares, Power & Fuel, Repairs

% of Revenue 25.9%

EBITDA 101,319% of Revenue 29.8%

PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 87,256

Prior Period Adjustment 285

PROFIT BEFORE TAX, EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS 87,541Tax Provision for Income Tax 28,708

Tax Rate 32.8%Provision for Deferred Tax (written-back) (1,876)Provision for Income Tax for earlier Year 1,921 Excess Prov for Income Tax written-back (earlier) (128)Fringe Benefit Tax 345 Tax Paid 28,970 PROFIT AFTER TAX, BEFORE EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS 58,572

Extraordinary Items (Net of Tax) 343

PROFIT AFTER TAX (As per Audited Accounts) 58,915

ADJUSTEMENTS FOR RESTATEMENT:a) Change in Accounting Policies (841)b) Other Adjustements and Prior Period Items 3,219 c) Current tax on Adjustments (686)d) Deferred tax on Adjustments 529 e) Arrear Salary and Wage 0 Total Adjustments after Tax Impacts 2,221

Net Income PROFIT AFTER TAX (RESTATED) 61,136 Net Profit Margin 18.0%

Profit(Loss) brought forward from previous year (17,516)Less: Trasitional Provision for Employee Benefit 0 Profit(Loss) available for appropriation 43,620

APPROPRIATIONReserve for foreign Exchange Transaction 31Transfer to General Reserve 7,876 Transfer to CSR Reserve 0

Interim Dividend 12,633

Dividend Payout Ratio 20.7%Tax on Dividend 4,756

Dividend Tax Rate 37.7%Total Appropriation 25,297

Retained Earnings 18,324

Number of Shares Outstanding 6,316

Earning per Share (EPS) 9.68

REVENUE DRIVERS

Annual Raw coal production (MT) 343.4 Y-O-Y

Average coal prices (INR/tonne) 723Y-O-Y

Revenue from Raw sale (INR mn) 248,278 % of Sales 86.5%

Y-O-Y

Annual Beneficiated coal production (MT) 15.4Y-O-Y

Average Beneficiated coal prices (INR/tonne) 1,901Y-O-Y

Revenue from Beneficiated sale (INR mn) 29,313 % of Sales 10.2%

Y-O-Y

Other revenue 9,427% of Sales 3.3%

Y-O-Y

Total Annual Sales 287,018

Interest Income 11,004% of Cash

Othe operational Income 12,092% of Sales 4.2%

Others 4,595Y-O-Y

Total Other Income 27,691% of Sales 9.6%

COST DRIVERS

Total No. of Employee 450,392 Y-O-Y

Average Cost per Employee 0.248Y-O-Y

Employee's Remuneration & Social Overhead 111,557% of Revenue 32.8%

C137

Ritesh : Interest on bonds, Interest received from bank, employees, etc.

C139

Ritesh : Recovery of Transporation n Loading Coal, Write Backs, Other Misc. Income

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

296,022 326,339 387,888 446,154 520,722 606,865 706,696 816,378 19,405 19,745 20,220 20,690 20,690 20,690 20,690 20,690

2,476 2,442 1,336 6,672 2,604 3,034 3,533 4,0820.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

32,152 37,641 51,196 52,408 61,242 69,231 87,334 109,396350,055 386,167 460,640 525,924 605,257 699,821 818,254 950,546

2.9% 10.3% 19.3% 14.2% 15.1% 15.6% 16.9% 16.2%

82,389 86,328 92,346 94,866 104,144 121,373 141,339 163,27627.8% 26.5% 23.8% 21.3% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

1.7% 4.8% 7.0% 2.7% 9.8% 16.5% 16.5% 15.5%115,756 142,580 216,272 186,730 194,106 206,655 229,594 261,002

39.1% 43.7% 55.8% 41.9% 37.3% 34.1% 32.5% 32.0%20,934 26,333 33,399 37,318 42,368 48,987 57,278 66,538

6.0% 6.8% 7.3% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%6.0% 25.8% 26.8% 11.7% 13.5% 15.6% 16.9% 16.2%

12,640 14,873 19,285 19,336 24,210 27,993 32,730 38,0223.6% 3.9% 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

-4.8% 17.7% 29.7% 0.3% 25.2% 15.6% 16.9% 16.2%231,719 270,114 361,302 338,250 364,829 405,008 460,941 528,838

118,336 116,052 99,338 187,673 240,429 294,813 357,313 421,70933.8% 30.1% 21.6% 35.7% 39.7% 42.1% 43.7% 44.4%

849 1,499 1,565 1,365 1,461 1,220 1,604 2,0793.7% 7.0% 8.3% 6.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

16,866 15,640 21,772 30,539 36,315 41,989 49,095 57,0334.8% 4.1% 4.7% 5.8% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

39.4% -7.3% 39.2% 40.3% 18.9% 15.6% 16.9% 16.2%232 194 224 195 0 0 0 0

13,116 15,299 16,629 13,138 15,685 23,946 25,161 26,444462 307 280 156 0 0 0 0

1,169 2,320 1,760 2,094 0 0 0 0

32,694 35,259 42,230 47,487 53,461 67,156 75,860 85,555

86,491 82,292 58,673 141,551 188,428 228,877 283,057 338,232

24.7% 21.3% 12.7% 26.9% 31.1% 32.7% 34.6% 35.6%

99,607 97,591 75,302 154,689 204,113 252,824 308,218 364,67628.5% 25.3% 16.3% 29.4% 33.7% 36.1% 37.7% 38.4%

85,642 80,793 57,108 140,186 186,968 227,657 281,453 336,153

221 1,111 277 (537) 0 0 0 0

85,863 81,905 57,385 139,650 186,968 227,657 281,453 336,15331,685 35,986 36,839 44,332 63,569 77,403 95,694 114,292

36.9% 43.9% 64.2% 31.7% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%(2,780) (2,488) (1,032) (336) 0 0 0 0

(356) 765 460 576 0 0 0 0 0 (0) (142) (1,147) 0 0 0 0

388 484 507 0 0 0 0 0 28,937 34,745 36,632 43,425 63,569 77,403 95,694 114,292 56,925 47,159 20,753 96,225 123,399 150,254 185,759 221,861

162 5274 33 0 0 0 0 0

57,088 52,433 20,785 96,225 123,399 150,254 185,759 221,861

(272) 780 533 58 0 0 0 0 (1,494) (5,523) (766) 2,437 0 0 0 0 2,654 5,209 (2,882) (2,342) 0 0 0 0

(1,321) (1,513) 2,004 (227) 0 0 0 0 (14,602) (8,535) 20,951 2,185 0 0 0 0 (15,035) (9,583) 19,841 2,113 0 0 0 0

42,053 42,851 40,627 98,338 123,399 150,254 185,759 221,861 12.0% 11.1% 8.8% 18.7% 20.4% 21.5% 22.7% 23.3%

18,324 30,988 32,088 40,758 0 0 0 0 0 (6,878) 0 (4) 0 0 0 0

60,377 66,961 72,714 139,091 123,399 150,254 185,759 221,861

138 67 70 73 0 0 0 0 8,906 8,897 9,339 12,671 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 1,592 0 0 0 0

15,000 17,054 17,054 22,100 24,680 30,051 37,152 44,372

35.7% 39.8% 42.0% 22.5% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%5,344 8,853 5,494 7,771 8,638 10,518 13,003 15,530 35.6% 51.9% 32.2% 35.2% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%

29,388 34,872 31,957 44,207 33,318 40,569 50,155 59,903

30,988 32,088 40,758 94,884 90,081 109,685 135,604 161,959

6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316

6.66 6.78 6.43 15.57 19.54 23.79 29.41 35.12

360.9 379.5 403.7 431.3 461.4 494.7 531.8 571.7 5.1% 5.1% 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.5% 7.5%

741 784 872 958 1,054 1,154 1,258 1,3582.4% 5.8% 11.2% 9.9% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.0%

267,315 297,485 351879 413,159 486,289 570,825 668,864 776,551 90.3% 91.2% 90.7% 92.6% 93.4% 94.1% 94.6% 95.1%

7.7% 11.3% 18.3% 17.4% 17.7% 17.4% 17.2% 16.1%

14.1 14.3 15.0 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3-8.4% 1.2% 4.7% -2.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%1,949 1,913 2,260 2,136 2,200 2,270 2,347 2,4322.5% -1.8% 18.2% -5.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6%

27,515 27,333 33,808 31,160 32,415 33,821 35,390 37,141 9.3% 8.4% 8.7% 7.0% 6.2% 5.6% 5.0% 4.5%

-6.1% -0.7% 23.7% -7.8% 4.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9%

1,193 1,520 2,201 1,834 2,018 2,220 2,442 2,6860.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

-87.3% 27.5% 44.8% -16.7% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

296,022 326,339 387,888 446,154 520,722 606,865 706,696 816,378

M111

Ritesh : 45 exp. projects with an expected capacity of 33.27 million tonnes per annum (2013)

M113

Ritesh : average coal price is significantly lesser than global coal.

L120

Ritesh : 17 beneficiation facility in the xpansion plans till 2013

15,553 20,955 28,447 26,940 35,170 40,238 54,112 71,44011.6% 13.2% 13.6% 9.1% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

11,773 10,948 16,368 18,477 20,829 24,275 28,268 32,6554.0% 3.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

4,826 5,738 6,381 6,991 5,243 4,719 4,955 5,3015.0% 18.9% 11.2% 9.6% -25.0% -10.0% 5.0% 7.0%

32,152 37,641 51,196 52,408 61,242 69,231 87,334 109,39610.9% 11.5% 13.2% 11.7% 11.8% 11.4% 12.4% 13.4%

439,343 426,077 412,350 397,138 393,167 391,201 395,113 401,039 -2.5% -3.0% -3.2% -3.7% -1.0% -0.5% 1.0% 1.5%0.263 0.335 0.524 0.470 0.494 0.528 0.581 0.6516.4% 27.0% 56.7% -10.4% 5.0% 7.0% 10.0% 12.0%

115,756 142,580 216,272 186,730 194,106 206,655 229,594 261,00233.1% 36.9% 47.0% 35.5% 32.1% 29.5% 28.1% 27.5%

M137

Ritesh : 1Q fig. 6903.72, given in page no F65 of IPO prospectus

M139

Ritesh : 1Q fig. 3704.86, given in page no F65 of IPO prospectus

M141

Ritesh : 1Q fig. 1170, given in page no F65 of IPO prospectus

M149

Ritesh : 1Q fig. is 394,041, given on page 191 of IPO prospectus

O150

Ritesh : result of expansion and automation

M151

Ritesh : 1Q fig. is 0.122

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGREstimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate 2011-2020

926,966 1,033,881 1,132,349 1,217,526 1,290,904 1,368,729 20,690 20,690 20,690 20,690 20,690 20,690

4,635 5,169 5,662 6,088 6,455 6,8440.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

134,686 162,377 192,094 222,455 253,558 286,1361,086,976 1,222,117 1,350,794 1,466,758 1,571,606 1,682,399

14.4% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 7.1% 7.0%

185,393 206,776 226,470 243,505 258,181 273,746 11.3%20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%13.5% 11.5% 9.5% 7.5% 6.0% 6.0%

306,155 351,466 398,211 444,902 476,490 510,32033.0% 34.0% 35.2% 36.5% 36.9% 37.3%

76,088 85,548 94,556 102,673 110,012 117,7687.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

14.4% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 7.1% 7.0%43,479 48,885 54,032 58,670 62,864 67,296

4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%14.4% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 7.1% 7.0%

611,116 692,675 773,268 849,750 907,547 969,130

475,860 529,442 577,526 617,008 664,059 713,26943.8% 43.3% 42.8% 42.1% 42.3% 42.4%

2,645 3,287 4,003 4,785 5,620 6,5227.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

65,219 73,327 81,048 88,005 94,296 100,9446.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

14.4% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 7.1% 7.0%0 0 0 0 0 0

27,717 28,256 28,508 29,087 29,114 29,3690 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0

95,581 104,869 113,558 121,877 129,031 136,835

382,924 427,859 467,970 499,916 540,649 582,956

35.2% 35.0% 34.6% 34.1% 34.4% 34.7%

410,642 456,115 496,478 529,003 569,763 612,32537.8% 37.3% 36.8% 36.1% 36.3% 36.4%

380,279 424,573 463,967 495,131 535,029 576,434

0 0 0 0 0 0

380,279 424,573 463,967 495,131 535,029 576,434129,295 144,355 157,749 168,344 181,910 195,987

34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

129,295 144,355 157,749 168,344 181,910 195,987 250,984 280,218 306,218 326,786 353,119 380,446

0 0 0 0 0 0

250,984 280,218 306,218 326,786 353,119 380,446

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

250,984 280,218 306,218 326,786 353,119 380,446 23.1% 22.9% 22.7% 22.3% 22.5% 22.6%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

250,984 280,218 306,218 326,786 353,119 380,446

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50,197 56,044 61,244 65,357 70,624 76,089

20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%17,569 19,615 21,435 22,875 24,718 26,631

35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%67,766 75,659 82,679 88,232 95,342 102,721

183,218 204,559 223,539 238,554 257,777 277,726

6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316

39.74 44.36 48.48 51.74 55.91 60.23

608.8 642.3 671.2 694.7 715.5 737.0 5.3%6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0%

1,454 1,541 1,618 1,682 1,733 1,785 6.0%7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%

884,919 989,605 1,085,844 1,168,803 1,239,983 1,315,498 11.7%95.5% 95.7% 95.9% 96.0% 96.1% 96.1%14.0% 11.8% 9.7% 7.6% 6.1% 6.1%

15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 1.2%1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%

2,524 2,615 2,704 2,791 2,874 2,961 3.4%3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0%

39,092 41,026 42,930 44,791 46,596 48,474 4.6%4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.0% 4.0%

2,954 3,250 3,575 3,932 4,325 4,758 10.0%0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

926,966 1,033,881 1,132,349 1,217,526 1,290,904 1,368,729 11.3%

91,829 114,839 140,307 167,002 194,967 224,224 22.9%9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

37,079 41,355 45,294 48,701 51,636 54,749 11.3%4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

5,779 6,183 6,492 6,752 6,954 7,163 3.5%9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0%

134,686 162,377 192,094 222,455 253,558 286,136 18.7%14.5% 15.7% 17.0% 18.3% 19.6% 20.9%

409,060 419,287 431,865 442,662 451,515 460,546 1.8%2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0%

0.748 0.838 0.922 1.005 1.055 1.108 9.4%15.0% 12.0% 10.0% 9.0% 5.0% 5.0%

306,155 351,466 398,211 444,902 476,490 510,320 11.3%28.2% 28.8% 29.5% 30.3% 30.3% 30.3%

S150

Ritesh : Increasing trends because of expansion plans till 2017



FIXED ASSETSGross Block 296,734

Accumulated Depreciation 177,916 Provision for Impairment 15,520 Other Provisions 0 Net Block 103,298

Capital Work in Progress 10,988 Surveyed off Assets 228

PP&E Total Fixed Assets 114,515

Investments Investments 22,445 Non Current Assets Net Interest in Joint Venture 0 Non Current Assets Deferred Tax Assets 7,281

CURRENT ASSETS, LOAN & ADVANCECurrent Asset Inventories 29,134 Current Asset Sundry Debtors 18,841

Cash Cash and Bank Balance 134,272 Current Asset Loans and Advance 65,004

Current Assets 112,979 Total Current Assets 247,252

Total Assets Total Assets 391,492

LIABILITIES AND PROVISIONSSecured Loans 2,477 Unsecured Loans 20,713

Total Debt 23,190

Current Liability Current Liabilities and Provisions 216,438 Current Liability Minority Interest 0 Current Liability Shifting and Rehabilitation Fund 4,859 Current Liability Deferred Tax Liability 4,469

Total Current Liabilities 225,766

Total Liabilities Total Liabilities 248,956

Back Coal India Limited (Balance Sheet)

SHAREONWER'S EQUITYShare Capital 63,164 Reserve & Surplus 79,373 Less: Misc Expenditures (not written-off) 0

Total Equity Total Shareholder's Equity 142,536

Total Assets = Total Liabilities & Total Shareholder's Equity 391,492

Workings

Total Revenues 340,088COGS 225,622

Total Debt Total Debt 23,190 D/E 0.16

PP&E 114,515 Depreciation 13,154

% of PP&ECapex(Tangible) Capex 10,988

% of Revenue 3.2%% of PP&E

Inventories 29,134 Inventory Turnover 7.7Days Inventory 47

Sundry Debtors 18,841 Recievable Turnover 18.1Days Recievable 20

Loan and Advances 65,004 % of Revenue 19.1%

Current Liability 216,438

Sundry Creditors 6,056 % of Revenue 1.8%

Employee Remunerations 89,784 % of Revenue 26.4%

Power & Fuel, Repairs and Other Expenses 20,259 % of Revenue 6.0%

Provision for Income Tax and Other Benefits 100,339 % of Revenue 29.5%

Equity-Cash 8,264

0 0 0 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

307,017 318,592 332,550 349,453 440,242 475,233 512,054 550,076

199,310 210,095 218,028 224,911 240,596 264,543 289,704 316,148 3,777 4,106 4,430 4,228 0 0 0 0

5 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 103,925 104,387 110,088 120,310 199,645 210,690 222,351 233,929

12,377 15,392 18,223 21,082 40,951 53,852 67,353 82,219 241 291 972 1,198 (240,596) (264,543) (289,704) (316,148)

116,543 120,071 129,283 142,590 217,693 228,738 240,398 251,976

20,259 17,179 15,052 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

6,602 7,878 9,548 9,658 0 0 0 0

31,250 34,074 36,666 44,015 49,977 55,481 63,143 72,444 16,822 16,572 18,475 21,686 25,787 30,774 37,103 44,404

159,293 209,615 296,950 390,778 447,090 601,244 793,774 1,020,318 78,184 102,663 117,271 86,655 90,789 104,973 122,738 142,582

126,257 153,308 172,411 152,356 166,552 191,228 222,984 259,430 285,549 362,923 469,361 543,134 613,642 792,472 1,016,758 1,279,748

428,954 508,050 623,244 708,204 844,157 1,034,032 1,269,978 1,544,546

3,327 2,247 1,805 4,669 0 0 0 0 18,112 16,592 19,680 16,199 0 0 0 0 21,439 18,839 21,485 20,869 17,429 22,913 29,693 37,791

236,171 305,945 399,423 413,847 478,153 552,859 646,421 750,932 0 0 19 236 0 0 0 0

6,881 9,459 12,238 14,774 0 0 0 0 2,331 1,801 0 0 0 0 0 0

245,383 317,204 411,681 428,857 478,153 552,859 646,421 750,932

266,822 336,043 433,165 449,726 495,582 575,772 676,114 788,723

63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 98,968 108,843 126,916 195,330 285,411 395,097 530,701 692,659

0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 162,131 172,007 190,080 258,479 348,575 458,260 593,864 755,823

428,954 508,050 623,245 708,204 844,157 1,034,032 1,269,978 1,544,546

350,055 386,167 460,640 525,924 605,257 699,821 818,254 950,546231,719 270,114 361,302 338,250 364,829 405,008 460,941 528,838

21,439 18,839 21,485 20,869 17,429 22,913 29,693 37,7910.13 0.11 11.3% 8.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

116,543 120,071 129,283 142,590 217,693 228,738 240,398 251,976 13,116 15,299 16,629 13,138 15,685 23,946 25,161 26,44411.5% 13.1% 13.8% 10.2% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%

12,377 15,392 18,223 21,082 90,789 34,991 36,821 38,022 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%

10.8% 13.2% 15.2% 16.3% 63.7% 16.1% 16.1% 15.8%

31,250 34,074 36,666 44,015 49,977 55,481 63,143 72,444 7.4 7.9 9.9 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.349 46 37 47 50 50 50 50

16,822 16,572 18,475 21,686 25,787 30,774 37,103 44,404 20.8 23.3 24.9 24.3 23.5 22.7 22.1 21.417.5 15.7 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1

78,184 102,663 117,271 86,655 90,789 104,973 122,738 142,582 22.3% 26.6% 25.5% 16.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

236,171 305,945 399,422 413,847 478,153 552,859 646,421 750,932

M63

Ritesh : 1Q figure is 17,794.53, given on page F86 of IPO propectus

L70

Ritesh : 1Q fig. 22001.19

7,277 7,057 8,663 7,725 12,105 13,996 16,365 19,011 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

62,540 83,489 101,647 105,648 121,051 139,964 163,651 190,109 17.9% 21.6% 22.1% 20.1% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

22,499 28,952 29,872 35,687 42,368 48,987 57,278 66,538 6.4% 7.5% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

143,854 186,446 259,241 264,787 302,629 349,911 409,127 475,273 41.1% 48.3% 56.3% 50.3% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%

2,839 (37,608) (106,870) (132,299) (98,515) (142,984) (199,910) (264,495)

0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

582,685 613,238 647,008 676,343 707,775 741,423

343,865 372,120 400,629 429,716 458,830 488,199 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

238,820 241,118 246,379 246,628 248,945 253,224

105,045 131,003 154,249 183,088 209,885 234,975 (343,865) (372,120) (400,629) (429,716) (458,830) (488,199)256,868 259,166 264,427 264,675 266,993 271,272

12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

83,714 94,887 105,927 116,404 124,322 132,758 52,267 57,091 61,251 64,500 66,958 69,374

1,275,988 1,558,971 1,855,578 2,166,303 2,491,378 2,838,767 163,046 183,318 202,619 220,014 235,741 252,360 299,027 335,295 369,798 400,918 427,021 454,491

1,575,015 1,894,266 2,225,375 2,567,221 2,918,399 3,293,258

1,844,705 2,166,253 2,502,624 2,844,718 3,198,213 3,577,352

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

46,952 57,180 68,357 80,285 93,174 107,060

858,711 965,473 1,067,127 1,158,739 1,241,569 1,329,096 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

858,711 965,473 1,067,127 1,158,739 1,241,569 1,329,096

905,663 1,022,653 1,135,484 1,239,024 1,334,743 1,436,155

63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 63,164 875,878 1,080,437 1,303,976 1,542,530 1,800,307 2,078,033

0 0 0 0 0 0 939,041 1,143,600 1,367,140 1,605,694 1,863,471 2,141,196

1,844,705 2,166,253 2,502,624 2,844,718 3,198,213 3,577,352

1,086,976 1,222,117 1,350,794 1,466,758 1,571,606 1,682,399611,116 692,675 773,268 849,750 907,547 969,130

46,952 57,180 68,357 80,285 93,174 107,0605.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

256,868 259,166 264,427 264,675 266,993 271,272 27,717 28,256 28,508 29,087 29,114 29,36911.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%

32,609 30,553 33,770 29,335 31,432 33,648 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

12.9% 11.9% 13.0% 11.1% 11.9% 12.6%

83,714 94,887 105,927 116,404 124,322 132,758 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.350 50 50 50 50 50

52,267 57,091 61,251 64,500 66,958 69,374 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.5 24.317.6 17.1 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.1

163,046 183,318 202,619 220,014 235,741 252,360 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

858,711 965,473 1,067,127 1,158,739 1,241,569 1,329,096

21,740 24,442 27,016 29,335 31,432 33,648 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

217,395 244,423 270,159 293,352 314,321 336,480 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

76,088 85,548 94,556 102,673 110,012 117,768 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

543,488 611,059 675,397 733,379 785,803 841,200 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%

(336,946) (415,370) (488,438) (560,609) (627,907) (697,571)



CFO

Net Profit before Tax & Extraordinary Items 87,541Adjustements 3,250Restated Profit before Tax 90,791

Adjustments for Depreciation/Impairment 12,987 (CFO) Operating Profit before Working Capital Change 103,778

Investments 0 Sundry Debtors 1,881 Inventories (4,620)Loan & Advance (14,413)Current Liabilities & Provisions 28,213 Deferred Tax Assets/Liabilities (1,502)Change in Working Capital 9,559

Income Tax Paid/Refund/Paid for earlier years (29,661)Misc Expenditures 0

Cash Flow From Operatiing Activities 83,676

CFI

Capex (Tangible) (12,446)(CFI) Capex (Intangible) 0

Investments 0Change in interst in JV

Cash Flow From Investing Activities (12,446)

CFF

Redemption of Bonds (110)Increase/(Decrease) in Debt (4,191)

(CFF) Interest Paid (295)Shifting & Rehabilitation Fund 1,923 Dividend Paid (14,154)

Back Coal India Limited (Cash Flow Statement)

C10

Ritesh : Extra-ordinary Items (Gross), Adjustment excluding Tax Impact

C22

Ritesh : Investments, Sundry Debtors, Inventories, Loans & Advance, CL, Deferred Liabilities.

Change in Misc Expenditures 0

Cash Flow From Financing Activities (16,828)

Net Cash Flow Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash & Cash Equivalents 54,403 Cash & Cash Equivalents (Opening Balance) 79,869 Cash & Cash Equivalents (Closing Balance) 134,272

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

85,863 81,905 57,385 139,650 186,968 227,657 281,453 336,153(17,526) (9,311) 22,774 4,454 0 0 0 068,336 72,594 80,159 144,104 186,968 227,657 281,453 336,153

12,285 13,800 10,630 6,795 15,685 23,946 25,161 26,444 80,622 86,393 90,790 150,899 202,652 251,604 306,614 362,597

2,186 3,080 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,222 (708) (1,903) (3,425) (4,100) (4,988) (6,329) (7,301)

(2,232) (2,869) (2,826) (7,189) (5,962) (5,504) (7,662) (9,301)(15,403) (20,744) (14,228) 25,791 (4,134) (14,185) (17,765) (19,844)16,651 51,941 75,015 7,504 49,296 74,705 93,562 104,511

211 894 (1,748) (390) 9,658 0 0 0 2,636 31,594 54,310 22,291 44,758 50,029 61,806 68,065

(23,325) (29,297) (27,907) (39,990) (63,569) (77,403) (95,694) (114,292)0 0 0 0 30 0 0 0

59,933 88,691 117,193 133,200 183,871 224,229 272,726 316,370

(15,342) (18,350) (18,746) (19,977) (90,789) (34,991) (36,821) (38,022)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 2,127 2,230 0 0 0 02

(15,342) (18,350) (16,619) (17,747) (90,787) (34,991) (36,821) (38,022)

(140) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(1,611) (2,600) 2,646 (616) (3,440) 5,484 6,780 8,098

(965) (44) (1,610) (1,445) 0 0 0 0 2,021 2,578 2,780 2,536 0 0 0 0

(18,875) (19,953) (17,054) (22,100) (33,318) (40,569) (50,155) (59,903)

0 0 0 0 (15) 0 0 0

(19,570) (20,018) (13,239) (21,625) (36,773) (35,084) (43,375) (51,805)

25,021 50,323 87,335 93,828 56,312 154,154 192,530 226,544 134,272 159,293 209,616 296,950 390,778 447,090 601,244 793,774 159,293 209,616 296,950 390,778 447,090 601,244 793,774 1,020,318

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

380,279 424,573 463,967 495,131 535,029 576,4340 0 0 0 0 0

380,279 424,573 463,967 495,131 535,029 576,434

27,717 28,256 28,508 29,087 29,114 29,369 407,996 452,828 492,475 524,218 564,143 605,803

0 0 0 0 0 0 (7,862) (4,824) (4,161) (3,249) (2,458) (2,416)

(11,271) (11,173) (11,040) (10,477) (7,917) (8,436)(20,464) (20,271) (19,302) (17,395) (15,727) (16,619)107,780 106,761 101,655 91,612 82,830 87,526

0 0 0 0 0 0 68,182 70,494 67,152 60,491 56,728 60,056

(129,295) (144,355) (157,749) (168,344) (181,910) (195,987)0 0 0 0 0 0

346,883 378,967 401,879 416,364 438,961 469,871

(32,609) (30,553) (33,770) (29,335) (31,432) (33,648)0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0

(32,609) (30,553) (33,770) (29,335) (31,432) (33,648)

0 0 0 0 0 09,161 10,228 11,177 11,928 12,889 13,886

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(67,766) (75,659) (82,679) (88,232) (95,342) (102,721)

0 0 0 0 0 0

(58,605) (65,431) (71,502) (76,305) (82,453) (88,834)

255,669 282,983 296,607 310,725 325,076 347,389 1,020,318 1,275,988 1,558,971 1,855,578 2,166,303 2,491,378 1,275,988 1,558,971 1,855,578 2,166,303 2,491,378 2,838,767

Reported Currency-INR (in millions)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Particulars Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual

Total Revenues 340,088 350,055 386,167 460,640 525,924COGS 225,622 231,719 270,114 361,302 338,250Gross Profit 114,465 118,336 116,052 99,338 187,673Operating Cost 26,300 31,845 33,760 40,665 46,122D&A 13,154 13,116 15,299 16,629 13,138EBIT (Operating Profit) 88,165 86,491 82,292 58,673 141,551EBITDA 101,319 99,607 97,591 75,302 154,689Non-Operatiing Cost - - - - -Non-Operatiing Income - - - - -Tax 28,708 31,685 35,986 36,839 44,332 Net Profit 61,136 42,053 42,851 40,627 98,338 No. of Shares 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 EPS 9.68 6.66 6.78 6.43 15.57

Total Current Assets 112,979 126,257 153,308 172,411 152,356 Other Non- Current Assets 7,281 6,602 7,878 9,548 9,660 Total Intangible Assets - - - - -Investments 22,445 20,259 17,179 15,052 12,821 Cash 134,272 159,293 209,615 296,950 390,778 PP&E 114,515 116,543 120,071 129,283 142,590 Total Assets 391,492 428,954 508,050 623,244 708,204 Total Current Liabilities 225,766 245,383 317,204 411,681 428,857 Other Non- Current Liabilities - - - - -Total Debt (Current & Long-Term) 23,190 21,439 18,839 21,485 20,869 Total Shareholder's Equity 142,536 162,131 172,007 190,080 258,479 Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 391,492 428,954 508,050 623,245 708,204

Capex (Tangible) 10,988 12,377 15,392 18,223 21,082 Capex (Intangible) - - - - -Interest Expense 909 849 1,499 1,565 1,365

Return on Equity (ROE) 42.9% 25.9% 24.9% 21.4% 38.0%Net Profit Margin 18.0% 12.0% 11.1% 8.8% 18.7%Total Assets Turnover 2.05 1.91 2.02 2.18 1.88Financial Leverage 1.16 1.13 1.11 1.11 1.08

Return on Capital Emplyed (ROCE) 53.2% 47.1% 43.1% 27.7% 50.7%Operating Profit Margin 25.9% 24.7% 21.3% 12.7% 26.9%Total Assets Turnover 2.05 1.91 2.02 2.18 1.88

Debt RatiosDebt/Equity 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.08Interest Coverage Ratio 97.0 101.9 54.9 37.5 103.7

Back Coal India Limited (Ratio Analysis)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

605,257 699,821 818,254 950,546 1,086,976 1,222,117 1,350,794 1,466,758364,829 405,008 460,941 528,838 611,116 692,675 773,268 849,750240,429 294,813 357,313 421,709 475,860 529,442 577,526 617,008

52,000 65,936 74,256 83,477 92,936 101,583 109,556 117,09315,685 23,946 25,161 26,444 27,717 28,256 28,508 29,087

188,428 228,877 283,057 338,232 382,924 427,859 467,970 499,916204,113 252,824 308,218 364,676 410,642 456,115 496,478 529,003

- - - - - - - -- - - - - - - -

63,569 77,403 95,694 114,292 129,295 144,355 157,749 168,344 123,399 150,254 185,759 221,861 250,984 280,218 306,218 326,786

6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 6,316 19.54 23.79 29.41 35.12 39.74 44.36 48.48 51.74

166,552 191,228 222,984 259,430 299,027 335,295 369,798 400,918 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - -

12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 12,821 447,090 601,244 793,774 1,020,318 1,275,988 1,558,971 1,855,578 2,166,303 217,693 228,738 240,398 251,976 256,868 259,166 264,427 264,675 844,157 1,034,032 1,269,978 1,544,546 1,844,705 2,166,253 2,502,624 2,844,718 478,153 552,859 646,421 750,932 858,711 965,473 1,067,127 1,158,739

- - - - - - - -17,429 22,913 29,693 37,791 46,952 57,180 68,357 80,285

348,575 458,260 593,864 755,823 939,041 1,143,600 1,367,140 1,605,694 844,157 1,034,032 1,269,978 1,544,546 1,844,705 2,166,253 2,502,624 2,844,718

90,789 34,991 36,821 38,022 32,609 30,553 33,770 29,335 - - - - - - - -

1,461 1,220 1,604 2,079 2,645 3,287 4,003 4,785

35.4% 32.8% 31.3% 29.4% 26.7% 24.5% 22.4% 20.4%20.4% 21.5% 22.7% 23.3% 23.1% 22.9% 22.7% 22.3%

1.65 1.45 1.31 1.20 1.10 1.02 0.94 0.871.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05

51.5% 47.6% 45.4% 42.6% 38.8% 35.6% 32.6% 29.7%31.1% 32.7% 34.6% 35.6% 35.2% 35.0% 34.6% 34.1%

1.65 1.45 1.31 1.20 1.10 1.02 0.94 0.87

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05129.0 187.6 176.5 162.7 144.8 130.2 116.9 104.5

2019 2020Estimate Estimate

1,571,606 1,682,399907,547 969,130664,059 713,269123,411 130,313

29,114 29,369540,649 582,956569,763 612,325

- -- -

181,910 195,987 353,119 380,446

6,316 6,316 55.91 60.23

427,021 454,491 0 0 - -

12,821 12,821 2,491,378 2,838,767

266,993 271,272 3,198,213 3,577,352 1,241,569 1,329,096

- -93,174 107,060

1,863,471 2,141,196 3,198,213 3,577,352

31,432 33,648 - -

5,620 6,522

18.9% 17.8%22.5% 22.6%

0.80 0.751.05 1.05

27.6% 25.9%34.4% 34.7%

0.80 0.75

0.05 0.05- -

Reported Currency-INR (in millions)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Particulars Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual

Total Revenues 340,088 350,055 386,167 460,640 525,924EBITDA 101,319 99,607 97,591 75,302 154,689EBIT 90,791 68,336 72,594 80,159 144,104Cash Tax on EBIT (30,869) (23,234) (24,682) (27,254) (48,995)NOPLAT 59,922 45,102 47,912 52,905 95,109

Depreciation 26,300 31,845 33,760 40,665 46,122Change in Working Capital 9,559 2,636 31,594 54,310 22,291 CFO 83,676 59,933 88,691 117,193 133,200

Capex (12,446) (15,342) (18,350) (18,746) (19,977)% of Revenue 3.66% 4.38% 4.75% 4.07% 3.80%

FCFF 71,231 44,591 70,341 98,447 113,223WACCProjection YearDiscount FactorPV of Free Cash Flow

AssumptionsCost of Equity (Ke) 15.8% Cost of Debt (Kd)Risk Free rate 7.8% Corporate Bond PremiumMarket Return 14.5% Marginal Cost of DebtBeta 1.2 Nominal Tax Rate

Intrinsic Value Company BetaSum of PV of FCFF (Explicit Forecast) 1,315,673 Peabody 1.34WACC 15.3% Yanzhou 2.38Terminal Growth Rate 3% Arch Coal 1.69PV of Terminal Cash Flow 875,155 Consol 1.33Enterprise Value (EV) 2,190,828 AverageLess: Total Debt 17,795Add: Cash & Cash Equivalent 390,778Intrinsic Value (INR) 2,563,811No. of Shares (mn) 6,316Fair Value per Share 406Current Price (06 Apr 2011) 366Under/(Over) Valued 10.8%

Back Coal India Limited (DCF Analysis)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000Free Cash Flow (in INR)

Years

D38

Ritesh : As per page no. F86 of IPO Prospectus

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Years

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate

605,257 699,821 818,254 950,546 1,086,976 1,222,117 1,350,794 1,466,758204,113 252,824 308,218 364,676 410,642 456,115 496,478 529,003186,968 227,657 281,453 336,153 380,279 424,573 463,967 495,131(63,569) (77,403) (95,694) (114,292) (129,295) (144,355) (157,749) (168,344)123,399 150,254 185,759 221,861 250,984 280,218 306,218 326,786

52,000 65,936 74,256 83,477 92,936 101,583 109,556 117,09344,758 50,029 61,806 68,065 68,182 70,494 67,152 60,491

183,871 224,229 272,726 316,370 346,883 378,967 401,879 416,364

(90,789) (34,991) (36,821) (38,022) (32,609) (30,553) (33,770) (29,335)15.00% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.00%93,083 189,238 235,905 278,348 314,274 348,414 368,109 387,02915.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80.87 0.75 0.65 0.57 0.49 0.43 0.37 0.32

80,738 142,374 153,947 157,555 154,299 148,376 135,973 124,003

8.5% WACC 15.3% Weights 2.0% Growth Rate(Perpetual) 3% Total Debt (Current & Long Term)10% Indian Economy Growth 4% Total Shareholder's Equity34% Terminal Multiple 9.5X We

D/E U-Beta D'/E' L-Beta0.6 1.0 0.08 1.00.6 1.7 0.08 1.70.7 1.1 0.08 1.21.2 0.8 0.08 0.8

1.1 1.2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Years

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Years

2019 2020 SecondEstimate Estimate Stage

1,571,606 1,682,399 1,989,342569,763 612,325 724,040535,029 576,434 593,727

(181,910) (195,987) (201,867) 875,155 353,119 380,446 391,860

123,411 130,313 130,31356,728 60,056 60,056

438,961 469,871 483,967

(31,432) (33,648) (37,798)2.00% 2.00% 1.90%

407,529 436,223 446,17015.3% 15.3%

9 100.28 0.24

113,255 105,153 875,155

Weights Total Debt (Current & Long Term) 20,869Total Shareholder's Equity 258,479

0.9 Wd 0.1

Senstivity Analysis (WACC and Terminal Growth)

PV of Terminal Cash FlowWACC PV of FCFF 2% 3% 4%13.3% 1,448,211 1,135,635 1,245,166 1,378,280 14.3% 1,379,686 955,459 1,039,392 1,139,640 15.3% 1,315,673 809,846 875,155 952,033 16.3% 1,255,815 690,854 742,339 802,203 17.3% 1,199,784 592,684 633,734 680,962

PV of Terminal Cash FlowPV of FCFF 2% 3% 4%

1.0 1,395,699 984,701 1,084,509 1,204,1801.1 1,354,847 887,099 972,706 1,074,3611.2 1,315,673 801,323 875,155 962,0661.3 1,278,096 725,630 789,624 864,3641.4 1,242,036 658,583 714,303 778,917

Back

Senstivity Analysis (Beta-b and Terminal Growth)

Beta (b)

Senstivity (Price-RAW Coal and Terminal Growth)

CAGR PV of Terminal Cash FlowRaw Coal Price PV of FCFF 2% 3% 4%

4.0% 1,078,147 542,279 592,288 651,1575.0% 1,193,540 666,081 727,474 799,7436.0% 1,315,673 809,846 875,155 952,0337.0% 1,444,947 949,003 1,036,418 1,139,3198.0% 1,581,781 1,110,173 1,212,414 1,332,768

Senstivity (Average Cost Per Employee and Terminal Growth)

CAGR PV of Terminal Cash FlowEmployee Cost PV of FCFF 2% 3% 4%

7.4% 1,420,843 930,555 1,016,256 1,117,1408.4% 1,369,639 868,594 948,603 1,042,7879.4% 1,315,673 801,323 875,155 962,066

10.4% 1,258,796 728,296 795,422 874,44111.4% 1,198,846 649,003 708,853 779,305

Senstivity (Raw Material Cost and Terminal Growth)

% of Revenue PV of Terminal Cash FlowRaw Material Cost PV of FCFF 2% 3% 4%

18.0% 1,382,765 845,936 923,865 1,015,59919.0% 1,349,219 823,636 899,516 988,83920.0% 1,315,673 801,323 875,155 962,06621.0% 1,282,127 778,999 850,780 935,27822.0% 1,248,581 756,660 826,390 908,473

13.3% 14.3% 15.3% 16.3% 17.3%300

350

400

450

500

550Fair Value vs WACC

2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

WACC

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40300

350

400

450

500

550 Fair Value vs Beta()

2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Beta ()

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

13.3% 14.3% 15.3% 16.3% 17.3%300

350

400

450

500

550Fair Value vs WACC

2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

WACC

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40300

350

400

450

500


2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Beta ()

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%300

350

400

450

500

550 Fair Value vs Coal Price

2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Raw Coal Price (CAGR)

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 10.4% 11.4%300

350

400

450

500

550 Fair Value vs Employee Cost

2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Cost Per Employee(CAGR)

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 21.0% 22.0%300

350

400

450

500

550 Fair Value vs Raw Material Cost

2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Raw Material Cost (% of Revenue)

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

Fair Value per Share2% 3% 4% Sensitivity Index

468 485 507429 442 458396 406 418 (8.21)367 375 385343 349 357


436 452 471414 428 444394 406 420 (0.51)376 386 398360 369 379


316 324 333353 363 375396 406 418 10.93 438 452 468485 501 520


431 445 461413 426 441394 406 420 (5.15)374 384 397352 361 372


412 424 439403 415 429394 406 420 (2.26)385 397 410377 388 401

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40300

350

400

450

500


2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Beta ()

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40300

350

400

450

500


2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Beta ()

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

7.4% 8.4% 9.4% 10.4% 11.4%300

350

400

450

500

550 Fair Value vs Employee Cost

2% (Growth)

3% (Growth)

4% (Growth)

Cost Per Employee(CAGR)

Fair

Valu

e (IN

R)

Date post:	01-Dec-2014
Category:	Documents
Upload:	akash-shah
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Coal India Valuation Model

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