-
nst
g-iron
0001c Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment,
Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, 300387, China
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
coastal and marine resources supported China's marine
industries,
ll GDP (Gross Do-l special economiconomic rise. TheShenzhen
Specialtal zones in Chinae Binhai New Areaent zone that is
great need water
, a shallow, semi-enclosed sea, and is a part of Tianjin, a
municipality that is theeconomic center of northeast China.
However, due to increasinghuman settlements and economic
activities, the freshwatershortage for domestic, agricultural, and
industrial purposes hasbecome more serious in the coastal zones
(Oude Essink, 2001).Moreover, Tianjin has a poor available per
capita water resourcevolume of only 1/15 of the national average
and 1/50 of the worldaverage. The water resource shortage has
become a crucial issue forthe development of the BHNA.
Abbreviations: BHNA, Binhai New Area; SSEC, Shenzhen Special
Economic Zone;GDP, Gross Domestic Product; IWRM, Integrated Water
Resources Management;TM, thematic mapper; PDNA, Pudong New Area;
WEAP, Water Evaluation andPlanning; WWTP, Wastewater treatment
plant.* Corresponding authors.E-mail addresses:
[email protected] (Z.-L. Wang), yqwang@nankai.
Contents lists availab
Ocean & Coastal
journal homepage: www.elsev
Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015) 97e109edu.cn (Y.
Wang).1. Introduction
Coastal zones are attractive areas for human activities,
especiallyeconomic activities and residences, due to their
productive naturalresources (Xie et al., 2012). China has 3 million
km2 of marine areaand 6500 islands under its jurisdiction, and its
coastal and marineecosystems have high biogeographic and
socio-economic values(Qiu et al., 2009). There are approximately
22,629 recorded speciesin the various marine ecosystems, including
mangrove, coral reef,coastal wetlands, and estuaries (SOA, 2011a;
Ma et al., 2013). Rich
which contributed to over 9.7% of China's overamestic Product)
in 2010 (SOA, 2011b). The coastazone was the typical approach for
China's ecPudong New Area (PDNA) in Shanghai and theEconomic Zone
(SSEC) are two successful coasthat rapidly developed over the past
40 years. Th(BHNA) is the third coastal economic developmcurrently
in the growing progress and has aresource management.
The BHNA is located next to the Bohai SeaReceived 7 January
2014Received in revised form19 September 2014Accepted 22 January
2015Available online
Keywords:Water resource managementWEAP modelWater demand
scenariosBinHai New AreaCoastal
zonehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.01.0160964-5691/
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.a b s t r a c t
Coastal zones are attractive areas for economic activities and
residence due to their productive naturalresources. The Binhai New
Area (BHNA), the third coastal economic development zone in China
behindPudong New Area (PDNA, Shanghai) and Shenzhen Special
Economic Zone (SSEC, Guangdong), is facingthe challenge of a severe
water shortage and sustainable development of the coastal zone.
This studyanalyzed the future water situation in the BHNA by
setting different scenarios of socio-development andurbanization
until 2020. A modeling system named the Water Evaluation and
Planning (WEAP) was usedto evaluate the sustainability of limited
water resources management strategies in BHNA. The WEAPmodel has
advantages for analyzing and simulating different water systems.
Three scenarios were set upfor the BHNA based on the developing
process of PDNA and SSEC. The three scenarios were
urbanization,industrial structure adjustment, and the policy change
of water resources allocation. The results illus-trated that the
pressure on the BHNA water resources will increase in the future,
and several suggestionswere advanced to assist decision makers in
planning water management to meet future demands in thisregion.
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Application of Water
Evaluation and Plawater resources management strategy eNew Area,
China
Xue Li a, c, Yue Zhao b, Chunli Shi a, Jian Sha c, Zhona MOE Key
Laboratory of Pollution Processes and Environmental Criteria,
College of Env300071, Chinab Water Environment Institute, Chinese
Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing, 1ning (WEAP) model
forimation in coastal Binhai
Liang Wang c, *, Yuqiu Wang a, *
mental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin,
2, China
le at ScienceDirect
Management
ier .com/locate/ocecoaman
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ManOver the past 30 years, a series of expensive diversion
effortswere implemented in Tianjin, including: the Luanhe River
Diver-sion Project in 1983e1999; the Yellow River to Tianjin in the
1970sand 1980s; and South-to-North water diversion project from
1990s.These diversion projects not only consumed huge resources
butalso lead to a potential risk to the regional ecological
environment(Song et al., 2011). Fresh groundwater also suffered
from excessiveextraction, which lead to groundwater overdraft that
causedextensive salt water intrusion in aquifers, especially in the
BHNAdue to its coastal location. The salinization of the
groundwatersystem can lead to a severe deterioration of the
estuarine zone(Oude Essink, 2001). It is important to address the
issue of thewater resource shortage to achieve both economic
developmentand sustainability in the BHNA.
Water managers need to integrate a series of complex anddifcult
matters to allocate the limited water resources efcientlyand reduce
estuarine deterioration. Traditional policies typicallyonly
consider economic and industrial development but ignore
theprotection of the environment. These policies have already
beenunsuitable for modern environmental management. In recentyears,
a new sustainable water management, Integrated WaterResources
Management (IWRM), was put forth by the Global WaterPartnership as
part of the sustainable development dened by theWorld Commission on
Environment and Development as meetingthe needs of the present
without compromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their
own needs (Zhang et al., 2008). Thetarget of IWRM is to strive to
facilitate the sustainable managementof water resources by
fostering information exchange and helpingto match the needs for
solutions to water problems with availabletools, assistance, and
resources (Mari~no and Simonovic, 2001),which is consistent with
China's water management policy. TheIWRM lists numerous models to
assist in water allocation andmanagement, among which Water
Evaluation and Planning(WEAP) is one of the most useful models that
have been applied inmany countries. In this study, the WEAP model
was achieved in theTianjin BHNA, the third coastal economic
development zone inChina that has a great need for water resource
management. Thisstudy focused both on the management of water
resources and thesustainability of human activities in coastal
zones.
2. Methodology and data
2.1. Study area
The BHNA is located in the northeast of the North China
Plain,attributed to Tianjin municipality. With a 153 km length
coastlineof Bohai Bay, BHNA covers an area of 2270 km2
(38400Ne39000N,117200E118000E). There is a typical warm temperate
semi-humid continental monsoon climate and distinct seasons.
Theaverage annual temperature is about 12 C, while January and
Julyare the most cold and hot months, respectively. BHNA is quite
shortof water resources with a mean annual precipitation about510
mme570 mm. What's more, the evaporation in this area isgreat, about
1469 mm year1 that is 2.4 times as many as precipi-tation
(Statistics, 2001). BHNA comprises three administrativedistricts,
including Tanggu District, Hangu District and DagangDistrict, and
three function zones, including Tianjin Economic-Technological
Development Area, Tianjin Port Free Trade Zoneand Tianjin Port, as
well as parts of Dongli District and JinnanDistrict. BHNA has a
population of 1.72 million in 2007, with anannual growth rate of
4.99% since 2002 (Statistics, 2002). Thehigher population growth
rate is especially due to migration andresults in an increased
pressure for land and water resources. Thewater resource per capita
in Tianjin is 160m3/a, which is only about
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal987% of the average level in
China (Zhang et al., 2008).The BHNA is the gateway to China's vast
hinterland and boastsoutstanding geographic advantages, a profound
industrial foun-dation, and great potential for growth. The BHNA
contains manynatural resources, including wastelands, beaches, oil,
natural gas,crude salt, topographical features, and marine
resources. Most ofTianjin's key industries, such as petrochemical,
metallurgy, elec-tronics, and food processing industries, are all
located in the BHNA.The rapid accelerating speed of the economic
development andurbanization process sharpens the competition for
water and landresources among agriculture, industry and
tertiary-industry. Landuse/cover change is an important indicator
for evaluating the pro-cess of urbanization. The development of the
Earth ObservationSystem and the Global Earth Observation System of
Systems hasmade remote sensing a highly effective method for the
dynamicmonitoring of the coastal zone and for quickly acquiring
this type ofinformation. In this paper, the selected data were TM
(thematicmapper) remote sensing images (30 m resolution) from 2001
to2006. The land of the BHNA was classied into six categories
usingthe remote sensing software ERDAS 9.1. These six categories
werecropland, grassland, water area, urbanized land, barren land
andwetland (Fig. 1). The urban sprawl is quite severe in this area
due tothe rapid economic development. The proportion of urbanized
landhas increased during the last ve years, replacing some
barrenlands and wetlands. The industrial land in the BHNA, which
isincluded in urbanized land, includes much more than cropland
andthis tendency will continue in the future. The development track
ofthe BNHA is similar to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Shanghai
islocated within a vast inland plain of the Changjiang (Yangtze)
Riverbasin. It not only has a at and fertile agricultural area, but
it alsohas an area where urban growth has rapidly taken place,
namelythe PDNA. The rapid industrial process has reduced
agriculturalland by 58.16%, while the water area remained at 82.6%
during thepast 11 years (Yin et al., 2011). Nevertheless, there is
still a portionof agricultural land that is protected from
development and isreserved for sustainable development. As another
special economiczone in China, the SSEZ has experienced a rapid
urbanization pro-cess characterized by a sharp decrease in farm
land, of which only2.65% remained in 2000. Urban land increased in
urban land from2% in 1980 to 58.7% in 2000 (Shi et al., 2007). This
urbanization hascaused serious water shortages, ood hazards, and
water pollution.The experience and lessons learned from the PDNA
and the SSEZinuenced the building of more grasslands in 2006 than
in 2001 toachieve the object of creating a livable environment in
the BHNA.This region will not only become a high-tech industrial
region, butit will also be an urbanized area with a high population
density inthe near future. More attention must be paid to the land
cover toensure the conservation of the reserved agricultural land,
which isimportant for sustainable development and for utilizing the
land inan economic and intensive way.
Promoting the development and opening-up of the BHNA willbe
benecial for strengthening the international competitiveness ofthe
BeijingeTianjineHebei region, as well as the circum-Bohai re-gion.
Due to its signicant strategic value, the development of theBHNA is
supported by the central and local government, and itsscal revenue
and expenditure grew at a stable pace in recent years.In May 2006,
the State Council issued Related Views on Promotingthe Development
and Opening up of Tianjin BHNA. The regionregistered a total scal
revenue of 19.83 billion yuan, up by 20.2%than the previous year
(Statistics, 2000). Since then, the GDP grewat a steady rate in
recent 10 years (as illustrated in Fig. 2). Thesecondary industry
maintained rapid growth and played animportant role. The BHNA
should gradually build into an eco-cityand an ideal dwelling place
featuring an economic boom and so-cial harmony. It is quite
important to increase the productive ef-
agement 106 (2015) 97e109ciency in the next decades due to the
high price of energy and raw
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ManX. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastalmaterials. The objective is
to reduce unit energy consumption by20% and increase the percent of
industrial water reuse to 90%. Majorindustries, such as electronics
and telecommunications, auto,
Fig. 1. The location and
Fig. 2. GDP & increasing ratio inagement 106 (2015) 97e109
99machinery manufacturing, biomedicine, chemicals, food
andbeverage, aerospace, and new energy and materials are still
playingirreplaceable roles in the BHNA. The rate of the high-tech
industry
land use of BHNA.
BHNA from 1998 to 2010.
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should reach more than 50% in the future few years. As
concernsover the energy shortage and serious environmental
problemsgrows, primary industries should lose their output share to
cleanerindustries and the tertiary industry, as these industries
are growingat a pleasing speed and contributing more fuel to the
regionaleconomy.
Themost important problem faced by the BHNA is how to adjustthe
water supply structure and safeguard the supply of the
waterresources, as the demand for these resources grows. The
BHNAmust effectively deal with various environmental problems
tomaintain an eco-balance and develop a circular economy to
achieveharmony between human beings and nature and between
eco-nomic growth and environmental protection.
2.2. Model description
Due to the complexity of water resources management in
BHNA,several models could be used to help allocate the available
waterresources among the different users in an optimum way, such
asAQUATOOL (Andreu et al., 1996), MODSIM (Labadie, 2005), RIB-ASIM
(Hydraulics, 2006), WARGI-SIM (Sechi and Sulis, 2009),QUALHYMO
(Rowney and MacRae, 1991) and WEAP (Sieber andPurkey, 2007).
Technically speaking in WEAP, it provides a comprehensive,exible
and user-friendly framework for planning and policyanalysis, which
is applicable for complex water system. WEAP canrepresent water
resource systems incorporating natural inows,precipitation,
evaporation, and evapotranspiration as input data.Operational
features, which can be specied as steady-state or
variables and equations to further rene and adapt the analysis
tolocal constraints and conditions with possible data exchange
withother software such as excel (Sieber et al., 2005).
WEAP has been used in many countries, such as
California,Massachusetts, Georgia, Southern Africa, North Africa
and manycountries in Asia. At the beginning of the twentieth
century, WEAPwas used for study of the climate effect on water
resources and theoptimal allocation among demand sites in a basin
in United Statesprincipally (Strzepek et al., 1999). With the
spread promotion ofWEAP, many countries in Africa and Asia has
linked WEAP toMODFLOW and capacity building to analyze the
relationship be-tween groundwater and surface water, relieving the
pressure ofagricultural irrigation. BHNA is a special economic
zonewith a largeamount of demand sites but limited water resources,
as a result acomplicated water supply and demand system is
composed, whichmight be estimated by using WEAP.
2.3. Data preparation
The WEAP constructed a network consisting of water resourcesand
demand sites connected by links that deliver water from theresource
node to the demand site. Return ow links, which returnwastewater
from the demand site to wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs), are an
important part of the WEAP network. Treatedwastewater is then
transferred from theWWTPs to the reuse site orto the ultimate
disposal water course (Al-Omari et al., 2009). Themajor rivers and
reservoirs as well as the demand sites in the BHNAare shown in Fig.
3. The BHNA receives a small amount of precip-itation and its major
water resources are reservoirs and non-
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015)
97e109100time-varying, are represented include storage and release
of waterby reservoirs, physical discharge controls at reservoirs
outlets,water ow in channels, consumptive demands, and
hydropowerrelease. Moreover, WEAP allows users to develop their own
set ofFig. 3. Water resources andconventional water. These
non-conventional water resources areconsidered as potential water
resources and include groundwaterrecharge, transfer water,
reclaimed waste water and sea water.Groundwater is also an
additional water supply for the BHNA, but ademand sites in
BHNA.
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large amount of salt water has intruded into aquifers and lead
to asevere deterioration of the estuarine zone. The exploitation
ofgroundwater resources is restricted by the local government.
Inaddition, the data on the characteristics of the hydraulic
connectionbetween the surface water and groundwater is absent, and
thiscomponent was not taken into account in the model. The
South-to-North water diversion project is another signicant water
sourcefor the BHNA. The transfer of water from the south to the
north is
immigration to the BHNA, the domestic consumptionwas a
notableamount. The projection of future changes in population,
agricultureand industry sectors were included in the WEAP (Savoskul
et al.,2003).
3. Scenario initializations
With rapid urbanization and economic growth in the study
area,the intensive water resources have been a principal limiting
factorfor future development. To assess whether the designed
watertransfer would satisfy the growing water demands in the
BHNA,three main scenarios were simulated in the WEAP. These
scenarioswere constructed to reect the effect of future trends on
waterdemands as concluded by the BHNA government and to
investigatethe impact of important planned goals from the Tianjin
BHNAConstruction and Environmental Protection Plan (2007e2020a)
forthe year 2020. These scenarios mainly include urbanization,
in-dustrial structure adjustment and policy impacts.
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015) 97e109
101essentially the only way to alleviate the water shortage in
NorthChina. Waste water must be recycled as new sources are
allocatedto their maximum benet. Seawater desalination technology
hasbeen rapidly developed in recent years.
Based on the regional current water situation, the effective
andefcient management of limited water resources is quite
importantfor the BHNA. How to minimize industrial water use and
maximizewastewater reuse among different tenants of this region is
a severeproblem and highly interrelated with economic development.
TheWEAP was chosen to analyze the complex water net in the
BHNA.Within the WEAP, the Current Accounts of the water system
werecreated rst, representing the basic denition of the water
systemin its current state and the assumed starting year for all
scenarios(Yilmaz and Harmancioglu, 2010). The BHNA had a stable
devel-opment for more than 10 years and 2006 was the most recent
yearfor which comprehensive data were available. Therefore, 2006
wasselected as the current year and the scenario analysis was
denedfrom 2007 to 2020. The key assumptions and parameters
weredened separately in the database and linked to demand,
supplyand infrastructure calculations (Jenkins et al., 2005). The
demandand supply data were calculated using the statistical reports
from2006 to 2010 of the BHNA government press.
Water demands were subdivided into the following major sec-tors:
agricultural water, industrial water and domestic water. InChina,
industries are classied into three types. The Chinese sta-tistical
denition of primary industries include farming, forestry,animal
husbandry and shery. Secondary industries includeminingand
quarrying, manufacturing, production and supply of
electricity,water and gas, and construction. Tertiary industries
include allother industries not included in the primary or
secondary in-dustries, such as transport, post and
telecommunications services,etc. (Long et al., 2010). Within the
rst, secondary and tertiary in-dustry, limited crop districts and
living areas were taken into ac-count as demand sites. The priority
of each demand sitewas set at 1to reect the highest priority. The
demand sites were distributedevenly in this region, whereas the
agricultural sector was ignoredbecause of its small percentage. The
area of cultivated land in theBHNA is only 230.0 km2, while the
wetland is 318.7 km2, barrenland is 108.6 km2, which are unsuitable
for the growth of crops.Therefore, the industrial demands are the
most important de-mands. The water supply data for the current year
are summarizedin Table 1. The total water demand for the BHNAwas
2.64 108 m3,of which 53% was dominated by the industrial sector.
Only 4.7% ofwater resources were used for local agriculture and
ecology, andthe residue was used for domestic consumption. The
populationand structure (percentage for urban and rural) in the
BHNA wereclosely bound with domestic water consumption. With the
rapid
Table 1Water uses in BHNA in 2006 (Unit: million m3/year).
Water types Total
Surface water 160.9Groundwater 98.2Others 6.0Sea water 214.1
Seawater desalination 34.03.1. Scenario I: Urbanization driver
for domestic water use
Urbanization is dened by the United Nations as the movementof
people from rural to urban areas with population growthequating to
urban migration. An urban area is characterized by ahigher
population density and vast human features in comparisonto the
surrounding areas surrounding. The construction of theBHNA, which
was an ambitious development project, attractedattention and lead
to a substantial in-migration. People from ruraland other areas can
easily nd work in the BHNA. The BNHA'sbooming industry development
and its living environment willlikely bring more people to the area
and tremendously impactwater resources at the same time.
The urban population in the BHNA was only 6.96 105 cap. in1994.
The population increased in 2009 to 9.22 105 cap. Thepercentage of
the urban population also increased year by year,from 69.7% to
77.79% during 15 years. Table 2 shows the variety ofthe population
and its composition from 1994 to 2009. The popu-lation is expected
to exceed 3.0 106 cap. by 2020, of which2.9 106 cap. will be the
urban population, and urbanization willreach 97% (Tianjin Urban
Master Plan (2005e2020)). The domesticconsumption may not meet in
the near future if effective water usemeasures are not
implemented.
Urban areas in the BHNA concentrated in the core area of
TangguDistrict, Hangu District, Dagang District and Sino-Singapore
Tianjin
Table 2Population in urban compared with rural in Tianjin city
from 1994 to 2009.
Year Population (103 capita) Population composition(%)
Urban Rural Urban Rural
1994 695.7 302.5 69.70 30.301995 702.8 299.6 70.25 29.751996
723.1 284.8 71.90 28.101997 731.5 279.3 72.52 27.481998 749.4 277.6
72.97 27.031999 768.6 270.0 74.01 25.992000 780.3 265.6 74.61
25.392001 789.9 263.6 74.98 25.022002 802.7 261.2 75.45 24.552003
810.5 260.0 75.71 24.292004 820.3 261.0 75.86 24.142005 833.8 260.1
76.22 23.782006 862.8 261.1 76.77 23.232007 881.7 262.4 77.07
22.932008 897.0 265.4 77.17 22.83
2009 922.4 263.3 77.79 22.21
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Eco-city. This scenario foresees the increase of the population
in theBHNA with respect to water availability and water demand.
Thepopulation was 1.71 105 in Hangu District, 3.69 105 in
DagangDistrict, 5.01 105 in Tanggu District and 8.20 104 in
Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city. The BHNA is in a rising
developmentstatus, with a small population and enough materials,
houses, fuelsas well as opportunities in the region. If the
population beforegrowth was slight, then, in view of the assumption
of exponentialgrowth and based on the interspecic competition
method, it willtend to resemble that the population in the BHNA
will growexponentially in the following decade (Marjoram and
Donnelly,1994) (see Fig. 4).
The changes in population, population distribution and
densitywere key factors inuencing the domestic demand for water
re-sources. The annual water use rate also played an important
role.The mean annual water use rate in the BHNAwas 42.60
m3/person(41.80 m3/person in Hangu District, 40.60 m3/person in
DagangDistrict, 43.00 m3/person in Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city
and45.00 m3/person in Tanggu District). The urbanization water
useforecasted in the model must depend on both the population
which is known as the Eleventh Five Year in China. The
industrial
includes electronics and telecommunications, auto,
machinerymanufacturing, biomedicine, chemicals, food and beverage,
aero-space, and new energy and material. These eight major
industries,
Table 3Economic indicators in BHNA in contrast to Tianjin (data
sources: Tianjin BHNAstatistical yearbook of 2010).
Year GDP ofBHNA(billionyuan RMB)
GDP ofTianjin(billionyuan RMB)
Growthrate ofBHNA (%)
Growthrate ofTianjin (%)
Ratio ofBHNA toTianjin (%)
2001 68.5 191.9 17.80 12.00 35.702002 86.3 215.1 20.10 12.50
40.102003 104.6 257.8 20.40 14.80 40.602004 132.3 311.1 20.10 15.80
42.502005 163.4 390.6 19.80 14.70 41.802006 198.4 446.3 20.20 14.50
44.402007 241.4 525.3 20.50 15.20 46.002008 335.0 671.9 23.10 16.50
49.902009 381.1 752.2 23.50 16.50 50.70
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015)
97e109102structure of secondary industry-tertiary industry-primary
in-dustry has been adopted in the BHNA, in which the
processingindustry, with its capital-intensive and
technology-intensive fea-tures, plays the dominant role (Wei,
2008). The processing industrygrowth and the change in the annual
water use rate. In addition, theratio of inow water consumption is
essential. The WEAP cananalyze the inuence of these factors on the
domestic waterconsumption.
3.2. Scenario II: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) driver for
industrialwater use
Tianjin is known as China's third largest city and the
biggestindustrial center in the north. The area has convenient
trans-portation, abundantmaterials, a superior geographical
position andthe biggest port in the north. The economy in Tianjin
developedrapidly during recent 20 years, and the BHNA is an
especiallydeveloped region. With its ports, low-tax and tariff-free
zones,many foreign and state-owned enterprises reside in the BHNA.
Ithas taken a large share of Tianjin's GDP in the past few years,
whichis shown in Table 3.
The BHNA maintained its rapid growth from 2006 to 2010,Fig. 4.
Prediction of population in BHNwhich are mostly secondary
industries, generated 93.2% of the re-gion's GDP. The secondary
industry is generally dened as takingthe output of the primary
sector andmanufacturing nished goods,exporting goods to other
businesses, or selling goods to domesticconsumers. This sector
consumes large quantities of energy andrequires factories and
machinery to convert the raw materials intogoods and products. It
also produces waste materials and wasteheat that may pose
environmental problems or cause pollution. Inthe initial
development period of the BHNA, the secondary industrycould not
avoid being the most important contributor to theeconomy. However,
with the limited amount of resources and ca-pacity of the
environment, the secondary industry must rene itsrole and be
cleaner andmore energy saving. The tertiary industry ismore
environmentally friendly and should have a larger share inthe
market.
The forecast of industrial water use in the model was driven
bythe growth of GDP. With limited water resources, the upper limit
ofindustrial development was predicted in this scenario. Over
thepast decade, the GDP in the BHNA increased sharply, while
thewater use was stable and even decreased slightly (see Fig. 5).
Basedon the limited data, a method which has a relatively weak
datarequirement was used for a case study in this area (Strzepek et
al.,1999). First, the total BHNA industrial water use data for the
baseyear was obtained. Next, the primary, secondary and tertiaryA
during urbanization until 2020.
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dustrial water use per sector increased in proportion to the
growth
tal w
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015) 97e109
103in GDP by adjusting the industrial structure. The industrial
wateruse coefcient was adjusted for technological change to
yieldalternative forecasts. With this method, the increase of
industrialwater use in each water sector could be forecasted by a
GDP driver.
3.3. Scenario III: Economic development goals driver for
watersupply demand
Though the economy in the BHNA can rapidly develop usingconstant
water resources, economic development should beindustrial data
obtained from the base year and an industrial wateruse coefcient
(as measured by GDP (10 thousand yuan RMB)) wascalculated for the
base year. The industrial water use in each watersector was
estimated by the industrial water use per GDP. The sameprocess was
used for the reference years (2007e2020). The in-
Fig. 5. Relationship between GDP and toproperly controlled. By
forecasting the BHNA development from2006 to 2010, the total
economic output in 2020 should reach 1000
Fig. 6. The model forecasted the changebillion RMB, in which the
ratio of secondary industry and tertiaryindustry is close to
7:3.
This scenario was constructed to reect the effect of the
eco-nomic plan for water demands. Because of the small proportion
ofthe primary industry, the upper limit of the GDP was set to
700billion and 300 billion for the secondary and tertiary
industries,respectively. The variable curve of GDP forecasted in
the model isshown in Fig. 6. This scenario was based on the
secondary scenario,in other words, the water use coefcient was the
same as in sce-nario 2. The purpose of running this scenario was to
determine theminimum amount of water consumption needed to
simultaneouslyachieve the economic goals of 2020. The developing
trend of theBHNAwas set similar to the SSEZ and the PDNA, which is
shown inFig. 7 and Fig. 8. The SSEC was developed from a small
village andthe industrial origin was nearly zero. The PDNA was part
ofShanghai and the industrial base is relatively stronger than
the
ater consumption in BHNA (diamonds).SSEZ, which is closer to
that in the BHNA. From the experience ofthese two economic zones,
the rapid increase in secondary and
of GDP in BHNA from 2006 to 2020.
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Management 106 (2015) 97e109X. Li et al. / Ocean &
Coastal104tertiary industrial is inevitable, which has signicant
characteristicsduring economic development in China.
4. Results and discussion
The three scenarios were estimated based on current waterdemands
and were assessed for the time period from 2007 to 2020.The main
function of the WEAP performance was to allocate waterresources
reasonably to various user types. The model optimizeswater
distribution according to the given objectives and itsknowledge of
water availability in the entire modeled time period(Schlter et
al., 2005).
The scenarios are dened as a set of alternative assumptionswhich
can take a global view of operating policies, demand man-agement
strategies and supply sources. Changes in these
Fig. 7. The GDP in SSEZ during 1980s and 1990s.
Fig. 8. The GDP in PDNA during 1980s and 1990s.
Table 4Population and per capita annual water use rate.
Domestic site Population(thousand capita)a
Per capita waterconsumption (m3/capita/a)b
2006 2015 2020
Hangu District 170.8 41.90 40.80 38.30Danggang District 369.7
40.60 41.30 37.70Sino-Singapore
Tianjin Eco-city80.0 43.00 42.90 38.90
Tanggu District 501.4 45.00 41.90 39.10Total 1121.9 e e e
a Data source: Tianjin BHNA statistical yearbook of 2006.b Data
source: The standard of water quantity for city's residential use
(GB/T
50331-2002).
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X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Manassumptions could either
grow or decline at a varying rate over theplanning horizon. The
scenario projections established in this studywere based on
economic, urbanization and technological trends.For example, it was
observed that increasing the population couldcause a signicant
increase in water demand (Mutiga et al., 2010).Similarly, economic
development and technological improvementalso resulted in an
increase in water demand and, consequently, anincrease in the unmet
demand. During the planning horizon
Fig. 9. The prediction of water us
Fig. 10. Comparison of population gr
Table 5Annual water use rate in different sectors.
Industrial type Water use rate (m3/yuan RMB)
2006 2010 2015 2020
Primary industry 0.4245 0.4177 0.4092 0.4009Secondary industry
0.0105 0.0061 0.0033 0.0018Tertiary industry 0.0088 0.0052 0.0028
0.0015agement 106 (2015) 97e109 105(2007e2020), there were three
different scenarios developed toreect alternative paths for future
water resources management inthe BHNA.
4.1. Scenario I: Urbanization driver for domestic water use
In this scenario, the populationwould grow rapidly according
toeleventh-ve-year plan from 2006 to 2010, while water con-sumption
for irrigation and industry was assumed to be constantduring these
years. With the reinforcement of people's environ-ment awareness
and the popularization of water efcient equip-ment, the annual
water use rate would gradually reduce (seeTable 4). In addition,
the water consumption rate was considered tobe higher in the
future, except for the reason referenced above, andincreasing the
suitable water price suitable would be a good idea.The water
distribution system could be protected and maintainedat short
intervals, and the losswould be reduced to a certain degree.
e in urbanization since 2006.
owth between PDNA and SSEZ.
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ate
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Man106The water reuse rate
would also increase year by year, with theperfection of municipal
sewage treatment systems. All of thesefactors were integrated to
predict the water use, as shown in Fig. 9.The projected total water
demands for the four sites increased from51.31 million m3 in 2006,
which is the date of beginning of ourstudy, to 60.70million m3 for
the end of the scenario (year 2020).The years from 2007 to 2012
were calibrated years, and the averageR2 between the statistical
data and the predicted data was 0.90.Tanggu, Hangu and Dagang were
stable because they have nearlyreached their maximum capacity.
These three districts cannotaccept many more immigrating
individuals. It is very similar to thedevelopment process of the
PDNA, which is shown in Fig. 10. Theyhave all grown from a part of
a developed urban area where theenvironmental capacity is nearly
saturated, so that the amount ofimmigration is quite limited.
The Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city is a building region and
fewpeople currently live there. The Eco-city Project was used
toshowcase the latest green technologies adopted in buildings
to
Fig. 11. Three industries sector wreduce the adverse effects of
global warming, inefcient energyuse, carbon emissions and climate
change. For this purpose, at,marshy tracts of underdeveloped land
in the desolate north-eastern corner of the BHNA will be
transformed over the nexttwo decades into a 30 km2 Eco-city using
the latest green tech-nologies, such as state-of-the-art water
recycling and waste treat-ment systems (Low et al., 2009). It will
house a community of300,000 people living and working in
energy-efcient buildingsbased on the report in Tianjin BHNA
Economic and Social Devel-opment Eleventh-Five-Year Plan (2005).
Though the annual wateruse rate was not higher in this region than
other three districts, theamount of water use will increase rapidly
due to populationgrowth. The developing trend of this region and
the SSEZ are quitealike. Since the 1980s, Shenzhen has grown from a
poor village to alarge city, which was the rst special economic
zone in China. Withits location in the Pearl River Delta, Shenzhen
covers an area of2050 square kilometers, including urban and rural
areas with atotal population of 479,000 to 14 million from 1990 to
2008.Shenzhen was the fastest growing city in China for the past
30years. A large amount of immigration streamed into this
developingregion during these three decades. It is the development
examplefor the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city and it provided a
templatefor a later coastal economic zone.4.2. Scenario II: GDP
driver for industrial water demand
The newly industrialized economies in the BHNA have achievedhigh
levels of per capita income and fast-maturing industrialstructures.
An important challenge it faced was the ability tomaintain rapid
growth while structurally changing their economiesby moving into
more technological and capital-intensive productlines.
In the simulated environment of the WEAP, continuous eco-nomic
growth was one of the inherent assumptions. Water is one ofthe most
precious natural resources and the lifeblood for a sus-tainable
economic development in any country. The BHNA isdeveloping with a
high growth rate of population and industrialactivity. Future
industrial water use in this region was estimated bymultiplying the
industrial GDP in the country by its water intensity(Wu and Barnes,
2008). The purpose of setting this scenario was toestimate the
inuence of economic growth and the adjustment ofthe industrial
structure on future water use and availability. Three
r demands forecasted by model.
agement 106 (2015) 97e109different industrial sectors were
assumed for changes in water in-tensity. In 2006, the water use
rate was 0.42 m3/yuan, 0.009 m3/yuan and 0.011 m3/yuan for the
primary industry, secondary in-dustry and tertiary industry,
respectively (Statistics, 2006). For theanalysis, we assumed the
primary industry sector remained con-stant at its current situation
because of its small proportion in theBHNA, while its water use
efciency could be reasonably enhancedby irrigation technology
innovation.
With secondary and tertiary industrial GDP growth,
governmentpolicies are strengthened and populations experience a
rise in theirdemand for water resources. The industrial water use
rate willlikely experience an N shape during longer-term time
scales,which is also known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve. This
Nshape indicates that water use increases as a country
develops,decreases once the threshold GDP is reached, and then
beginsincreasing as national income continues to increase. This is
inaccordance with the development of United States in the 1980s.
Itwas estimated that water consumption achieved a peak in
2005.Water intensity will likely be lower in the near future as
technologyand equipment improves and the environmental protective
andfuel economical consciousness increases (see Table 5).
With the limited water resources and reduction in the water
userate in the next decade, the GDP would strongly increase from
137billion yuan RMB to 3054 billion yuan within the water
resources
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carrying capacity of the BHNA. Under these scenario
assumptions,the prediction results are shown in Fig. 11. As in
scenario I, the yearsfrom 2007 to 2012 were calibrated years, and
the average R2 be-tween the statistical data and the predicted data
was 0.86. Theindustrial water demand would vary from 1.530 billion
m3 in 2006to 1.500 billion m3 in 2020. The amount of agricultural
water wasstable and declined gradually while the secondary and
tertiarywater demands increased a little in the next ten years. The
water
consumption was approximately 700 million cubic meters for
theindustrial sector and 400million cubic meters for the service
sector,which make up approximately 75% of the water resources in
theBHNA. Total amount of water was kept constantly under this
sce-nario, but the GDP would rapidly increase until 2020.
4.3. Scenario III: GDP driver for industrial water demand
This sub-scenario was set under scenario II according to
theannual GDP growth targets for the twelfth-ve-year plan from
2011to 2015. According to the eleventh-ve-year plan and the
twelfth-ve-year plan of Tianjin City and the Mid-long Plan of
Tianjin City(2005e2020), the annual growth rate of economic scale
is 22% from2006 to 2010. The GDP would reach 1000 billion yuan,
according tothe 2020 economic growth target. The ratio of secondary
industryto tertiary industry is approximately 7:3 until 2020, and
the vari-able trend is shown in Fig. 6.
Because the GDP upper limit was much lower than the previous
Table 6Annual water use rate in different sectors.
Industrial type Water use rate(m3/yuan)
2006 2010 2015 2020
Primary industry 0.4245 0.4170 0.4082 0.3996Secondary industry
0.0105 0.0071 0.0055 0.0042Tertiary industry 0.0088 0.0069 0.0053
0.0041
Fig. 12. The trends of water use rate in PDNA and SSEZ during
their rapidly developing period.
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015) 97e109
107Fig. 13. Predict industrial water demand under economic targets
with WEAP.
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Manscenario, the water use rate would be much easier to
accomplish.The Eleventh and Twelfth Five Year Plans have taken the
followingfactors into consideration for the management of water
allocation:the cost of technical renovation and instrumental
innovation; thecarrying capacity of natural resources; and the
preservation of alivable environment. It does not correspond with
the sustainablemethod to develop society and economy without
considering theconservation of the eco-environment in the BHNA.
Using otherdeveloped countries' experience as a reference, the
water use ratewas set at 0.005 cubic meters per yuan, which is
relatively easier toaccomplish. The predicted use rate is shown in
Table 6. The BHNAwould most likely resemble the SSEC. However,
there are no otherregions facing the same tough problems as the
BHNA. Although it isa recently constructed area, the target of
lowering the water userate must be set more rigorously. The PDNA
and the SSEC tookalmost ten years to decrease the water use rate of
the secondaryindustry to 0.005 cubic meters, which is shown in Fig.
12. Withadvanced technology, the BHNAwill achieve this objective
within ashorter time frame, as well as producing more economic
value.
Industrial water demand under this target was estimated at
1.5billion yuan in 2006 to 1.1 billion yuan in 2020 (see Fig. 13),
and theaverage R2 between the statistical data and the predicted
data was0.83 from 2007 to 2012. It was quite a unique development
modulein China than in other countries. The policies or plans
establishedby the government impact the socio-economic development.
Un-der the guidance of these overall plans, the use of natural
resources,such as water and energy, could be extremely
optimized.
5. Conclusions
The WEAP model was successfully achieved in the BHNA tosupport
scientic management of the local water resource, which isone of the
most important factors for the sustainable developmentof
socio-economy (Song et al., 2011). A total of 13.8 billion m3
waterwas transferred toTianjin from the Luanhe River in 1983e1999,
andin the 1970s and 1980s the water was also diverted from the
YellowRiver to Tianjin (Bai and Imura, 2001). Against this
background, theBHNA, which is developing with the rapid
urbanization and highgrowth rate of industrial units, is showing an
increasing trend inwater demands. The PDNA and SSEC have set good
examples forother coastal zones. However, the BHNAmust explore a
uniquewayto adapt sustainable development and to allocate the
limited waterresources appropriately. The WEAP enabled a
comprehensiveanalysis of water resources in this region to forecast
water demandin domestic and industrial sectors for the years from
2006 to 2020.
In the rst scenario, population growth was the most
importantfactor inuencing domestic water demand in the BHNA.
Waterdemand for this sector must be satised in the rst, because it
has adirect bearing on social stability and harmony. Faced with
thescarcity of fresh water supply in Tianjin, the second
scenarioanalyzed the adjustment of the industrial structure impact
onwater demand. The amount of required water was maintained
bydeveloping water efciency technology and equipment, but it
wasapparent that demand could not be met if it only relied on
freshwater supplies. Depending on the eleventh-ve-year plan made
bycentral government, the economic target for the third scenario
wasmuch lower than the second scenario so that had less water
de-mand in the next decade, but the demand could not be met by
theclean water supply. Exploiting nontraditional water sources
hassignicant value for this region, such as the desalination of
seawater.
The coastal zone represents the most wealthy and sociallydiverse
part of China and still gains in economic importance, suchas the
BHNA. However, as the development of the coastal zone
X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal108progresses and national and
local interests in coastal and marineresources rise, the coastal
zone needs to be sustainably managed.The WEAP can be used to obtain
more information beyond thescope of the present study, such as
power and water supply costsand income, the relationship between
surface water and ground-water, and water quality, etc. Effective
water management couldhelp avoid the estuarine land reclamation and
salinization, andmaintain sustainable development based on the
limited water re-sources in the BHNA.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers fortheir
helpful suggestions and advice. We are also grateful to theNational
Science Data Share Project e Data Sharing Infrastructureof Earth
System Science (China) for the data support. This work wasfunded by
Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning (Grant No.2008AW01) and
the innovation team training plan of the TianjinEducation Committee
(TD12-5037).
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X. Li et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 106 (2015) 97e109
109
Application of Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for
water resources management strategy estimation in coastal Bin ...1.
Introduction2. Methodology and data2.1. Study area2.2. Model
description2.3. Data preparation
3. Scenario initializations3.1. Scenario I: Urbanization driver
for domestic water use3.2. Scenario II: Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) driver for industrial water use3.3. Scenario III: Economic
development goals driver for water supply demand
4. Results and discussion4.1. Scenario I: Urbanization driver
for domestic water use4.2. Scenario II: GDP driver for industrial
water demand4.3. Scenario III: GDP driver for industrial water
demand
5. ConclusionsAcknowledgmentsReferences
