Coastal Ocean Observations and

Models for West Florida:

Downscaling from the deep ocean

across the shelf and into the estuaries.

Robert H. Weisberg

Distinguished University ProfessorDistinguished University Professor

College of Marine Science

University of South Florida

St. Petersburg, FL 33701

FIO-USGS-FWRI Workshop

4/3/14

DISCLAIMER:

The nowcast/forecast system and other data analyses are experimental products. No warranty is made,

expressed or implied, regarding accuracy or suitability for any application. All rights reserved Univ. of So.

Florida, College of Mar. Sci. – Ocean Circ. Group. Copyright Univ. of So. Florida, 2014.

The Observing System:

Fixed moorings and HF-radar,

presently with SECOORA support.

These observations are supplemented

by satellite altimetry and surface

geostrophic current analyses, plus

trajectories associated with these.

COMPS Real Time Observations

http://COMPS.marine.usf.edu

CMS-USF maintains offshore buoys

and coastal stations measuring ocean

and atmosphere variables.

COMPS HF-Radar

Long range CODAR

Shorter range WERA, including waves

Build-out Vision for COMPS Moorings, HF-Radar, Gliders

The Coordinated Modeling System:

1. West Florida Coastal Ocean Model

(WFCOM) consisting of FVCOM nested

in GOM HYCOM (presently with GoMRI,

Deep-C support).

2. GOM waves using SWAN

Coastal Ocean Circulation Model Approach:

WFCOM nests FVCOM into GOM HYCOM to

downscale from the deep ocean, across the

continental shelf and into the estuaries.

WFCOM is fully 3-D and density dependent.

Included are 8 tide constituents to account for Included are 8 tide constituents to account for

flows in estuaries and through inlets.

We serve daily automated N/Fs at

http://ocgweb.marine.usf.edu,

and we have hindcasts from 2004-present.

N/F circulation model:

Sub-domain examples

showing tomorrow’s

forecast made

yesterday

N/F Model

Charlotte Harbor

estuary

subdomain:

Tomorrow’s

forecast made

yesterdayyesterday

Daily, Automated Particle Trajectory

Forecasts: Surface, BottomLeft: 3.5 day forecast for 4/1/14, Right: 3.5 day forecast for

6/24/12 (TS Debbie)

Comparison between an actual CODE drifter and 5 model simulations. WFCOM is

the closest, and it also include tides and inertial oscillations

WFCOM daily-

mean surface V on

S and bottom V on

T for 6/28/10, when

DWH surface oil

was near Cape San

Blas.

Note the strong

upwelling

circulation caused

by LC interaction

with the shelf

slope near the Dry

Tortugas.

Daily, Automated Waves (SWAN) N/F Model

Additional nesting into WFCOM can better resolve estuaries

and inlets.

Example 1: The Tampa Bay complex

(Zhu, Weisberg and Zheng, 2014a,b).

Example 2: Rookery Bay, Naples Bay, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico(Zheng and Weisberg, 2008)

We are not late arrivals. We responded throughout the DWH

event, as evident in the NOAA forecasts. Our DWH response

consisted of ppt briefings and explanations beginning on

4/26 and continuing through the end.

Summary• The USF-CMS Ocean Circulation Group coordinates observations and models to

describe, understand and forecast the coastal ocean circulation and related

phenomena. The coastal ocean, where society meets the sea, is our niche.

• To fill a DWH event gap, we developed a model that downscales from the deep-

ocean, across the continental shelf and into the estuaries by nesting FVCOM into

HYCOM (first Global, now GOM).

• Real time observations and daily, automated circulation (and wave) N/Fs are

publically available at http://ocgweb.marine.usf.edu.

• All of our modeling works are veracity tested against observations and • All of our modeling works are veracity tested against observations and

subjected to peer review in refereed publications.

• Our WFCOM presently extends west of the MR. Plans exist for a full GOMCOM.

Given HYCOM nesting, WFCOM is portable elsewhere; for instance, it is straight

forward to include Florida’s east coast.

• Recent applications are to red tide, gag grouper larvae, and DWH hydrocarbons

reaching the WFS.

• We have a scientific vision for an expanded WFS observing system and the

capability to implement and sustain it.

• We remain interested in applications such as SAR, harmful substance tracking,

red tide, fisheries and marine recreation and marine commerce.

Recent Selected Publications1.Weisberg, R.H., A. Barth, A. Alvera-Azcárate, and L. Zheng (2009). A coordinated coastal ocean observing and modeling system

for the West Florida Shelf, Harmful Algae., 8, 585-598.

2.Zheng, L. and R.H. Weisberg (2009). Rookery Bay and Naples Bay circulation simulations: applications to tides and fresh water

inflow regulation, Ecological Modelling, 221, 986-996, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.01.024.

3.Liu, Y., R.H. Weisberg, C. Hu, and L. Zheng (2011), Tracking the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: A modeling perspective, EOS

Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 92(6), 45-46, doi: 10.1029/2010ES003187.

4.Weisberg, R.H. (2011) Coastal Ocean Pollution, Water Quality and Ecology: A Commentary, MTS Journal, Vol. 45, No. 2, 35-42.

5.Weisberg, R.H., L. Zheng, and Y. Liu, (2011), Tracking subsurface oil in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon well blowout, in

Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Record-Breaking Enterprise, Geophysical Monograph Series, 195, 205-

215, doi:10.1029/2011GM001131.

6.Liu, Y., R.H. Weisberg, C. Hu, and L. Zheng (2011), Trajectory forecast as a rapid response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, in

Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Record-Breaking Enterprise, Geophysical Monograph Series, 195, 153-

165, doi:10.1029/2011GM001121.

7.Liu, Y., R.H. Weisberg, C. Hu, C. Kovach, and R. Riethmüller (2011), Evolution of the Loop Current system during the Deepwater

Horizon oil spill event as observed with drifters and satellites, in Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Record-Horizon oil spill event as observed with drifters and satellites, in Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Record-

Breaking Enterprise, Geophysical Monograph Series, 195, 91-101, doi:10.1029/2011GM001127.

8.Zheng, L. and R.H. Weisberg (2012), Modeling the West Florida Coastal Ocean by Downscaling from the Deep Ocean, Across the

Continental Shelf and into the Estuaries, Ocean Modeling, 48 (2012), 10-29, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.02.002.

9.Huang, Y., R. H. Weisberg, and L. Zheng (2013), Gulf of Mexico hurricane wave simulations using SWAN: Bulk formula based drag

coefficient sensitivity for Hurricane Ike. J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 1–23, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20283.

10.Weisberg, R.H, L. Zheng, Y. Liu, S. Murawski, C. Hu, and J. Paul (2014), Did Deepwater Horizon Hydrocarbons Transit to the

West Florida Continental Shelf? Deep-Sea Res., Part II, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.02.002.

11.Weisberg, R.H., L. Zheng, Y. Liu, C. Lembke, J.M. Lenes and J.J. Walsh (2014), Why a red tide was not observed on the West

Florida Continental Shelf in 2010. Harmful Algae, in press.

12.Weisberg, R.H., L. Zheng and E. Peebles (2014), Gag grouper larvae pathways on the West Florida Shelf, Cont. Shelf Res.,

revised.

13.Zhu, J., R.H. Weisberg, R.H., L. Zheng, and S. Han (2014). On the flushing of Tampa Bay. Estuaries and Coasts, in press.

14.Zhu, J., R.H. Weisberg, R.H., L. Zheng, and S. Han (2014). Influences of channel deepening and widening on the tidal and non-

tidal circulation of Tampa Bay. Estuaries and Coasts, in press.