Coastal Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Process

Pasha Carruthers,

Cook Islands National Environment Service

Jakarta, Indonesia, March 20th , 2006

Cook Islands Experiences & Challenges

– Island micro-state• Latitude 9-22°S

• Longitude 157-166°W

• limited land size (240 sq km)

• small population size (16,000?)

• limited natural resources

• external economic and physical impacts important

• geographic diversity with both high and low islands- V&A only done on 3 islands

Cook Islands

Today’s Presentation:

Background

Experience

Methods

Findings

Future Directions

• All live within 5 km of coast

• Tourism

• Pearls

• Commercial and Subsistence Seafood

• Coastal

Flood Plain Agriculture

Socio-economic elements

Background• Signatory to UNFCCC 1992

• needed to produce “The Initial National Communication”

• Country Team Approach• USP V&A Course

– Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario generation – PACCLIM

Instead focused on:– expanding the V&A

statement to enhance full representation of the country

– qualitative baselines

– public awareness

• PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme: 1997-2001

– Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional Environment Programme)

– Assist countries to meet their obligations under the Convention

– Provided technical assistance, training, capacity building

Cook Islands INC Experience• Methods applied limited mainly to

analogues, expert judgment, brainstorming

• Assumptions Not Tested

• Why so limited?– Relevance to scale

– Capacity and Technology

– Poor understanding of other methods

Models and Decisions

• Integrated Assessment Models still more theory than practice– MAGICC, IMAGE & others have benefits but time

consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations

• Expensive PACCLIM demonstration tool has had limited applicability– not simple, too many errors, closed programs– useful application at the decision maker level requires a

motivator and a greater level of completeness.– Role as a training tool, for identifying cross sectoral

considerations

PACCLIMOutputs

Where is my island?

Example of Cook Clim Inundation SimulationConcerns:

Only for one island

Not visually significant for decision makers

Population & Socio-economic info missing

Time Consuming

Brainstorming MethodMain Types Of Coastal Sector ImpactsCLIMATE IMPACT HOW AFFECTED

Temperature Coral bleachingCoastal VegetationHeat Stress

Precipitation Fresh water & Sediment inrunoff, harms marine life

Sea Level Rise Reefs able to cope?Less wave force breaking

Inundation & Flooding Potential saline intrusion,shoreline retreat, infrastructuredamage

Tropical Cyclones & StormSurges

Rapid coastal erosion/ accretion,Damage and loss of life

ENSO Events Fish migration patterns change

Exposure of infrastructure and housing to storm surge. Rarotonga - Coconut trees frequently falling over, rock walls, groynes etc

Observed Impacts

Coastal Zones - erosion

Tongareva - Exposed coral heads sensitive to temperature increases

Coastal Zones and Coral Reefs •Coral Bleaching, poor reef health

Observed Impacts cont

Observed Impacts

• Storm Surge, Cyclones

The narrow width of the islands means saltwater intrusion is always a threat to shallow wells such as these. Drought reduces the fresh water level, and risks contamination.

Water Resources - Salinisation

Observed Impacts

Research Method – Information Gathering

• Needed– an information paper on V&A

objectives for stakeholders

– consultations with key ministries and consultants

– Island specific data relevant to the scope of the assessment

– collated published information• physical, social, economic, political

Field Research• Focal point established• Overview of the island• Meetings with government

officials, community leaders• Informal discussions• School and Media

Presentations• Qualitative observations

including anecdotal evidence

Challenges• Trust

• Limited time

• Presenting complex material

• Getting relevant input

• Recording feedback

• Verifying anecdotes

• Quantifying observations and uncertainties

Island Specific:Mangaia and Storm Surge

Housing located on makatea ridge

Coral is porous

Storm surges increase swamp salinity – anecdotal – no baseline

Taro Root Crops Suffer

-major export

-source of nutritionFigure 5 Because of the porous limestone and caves, sea level rise isa threat to the fertile inland agriculture swamps. After Nunn, 1994

Nature of Findings• Poor linkages between levels of government,

departments, and external projects/consultants

• Data access and storage disjointed• Coastal zone as a climate sensitive sector

– lack of locally relevant scientific assessment tools (although maybe have some now!)

– insight from locals e.g. salt water intrusion– but difficulty remained as to what decisions to make

Coastal Area Adaptation Options Brainstorming Method

• Traditional Measures– reforestation, housing, windbreaks

• Technology– Coastal protection devices

• Community– Coastal Vegetation Planting– Awareness/Education

• Policy– Promote sustainable development - ecotourism– Conservation, ICZM

- -

Expert Judgement use in identifying adaptation options

Example: Marine Resources in Coastal Area

• Areas of concern– erosion, coral reef resilience, near shore fisheries, pearl

quality

• Adaptation options - Generalised– development away from shoreline– integrated coastal management – ra’ui, incorporate traditional and modern conservation– monitoring, sensitive species and rehabilitation plans – education and awareness – Reduce sources of sedimentation and eutrophication

Current Practices – new methods, more data

• Case studies -Site specific and localised assessment, – CBDAMPIC, Participatory V&A, Adaptation Option

Implementation– CLIMAP – Modelling Coastal Inundation & Costs of

Adaptation– AIACC – Research based – lack of data for modelling

impacts

• Use of technology such as GIS• More focus on adaptation option assessment, costs

and benefits, socioeconomic and livelihood aspects, integration into policy, promotion of adaptation

Lessons Learnt• Different islands in the Cooks have very different

vulnerability profiles and adaptation needs• Lack of quantitative assessment tools and data means

baselines are difficult to establish• Meetings can be hard to arrange – informants feel ‘over

consulted’ frustrated by studies and no action• Recording everything in a systematic way vital , time

consuming• Need to Verify facts from all sources as many repeat

errors• Much awareness can be generated simply through audio-

visual resources• Incorporation of climate relevant policies into island

development plans ongoing issue

– Open Structure Models, focused data collection– Access to national and international technical expertise – Improve results obtained from simple methods, interview

skills, checklists– Reporting Important, takes time, need benchmarks

• Risk Management and coping ability

• Integrated management plans

• Implementation through policy, National Implementation Strategy

• Public & Education Awareness

• Continued lobbying for adaptation assistance

Future Directions

Conclusion

Recognising the urgency of these assessments, the time constraints (3 years) in which we have to produce the second national communications, one role for us is to ensure the V&A produces better information and baselines for now and the future so we are further ahead for precautionary approaches.

Thankyou

GlobalRegional

Level 1

GEF

UNDP

APN

SPREP

PICCAP

Geography

Community

Environmental Health

Baseline Data Available

Resilience

Economic Cost of Climate Change

Suitable Adaptation Options

Local Decision Makers

Tradition

Public Awareness of Climate Issues

Sustainability

Research Capacity

Island Councils

Country Team

PICCAP Project

Environment Service

Government Level 2

Level 3

Country Specific

Island Specific

Models

Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments

SURVASNationalCommunications