Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ℃
Target Scenarios
Tatsuya HANAOKA
Center for Social and Environmental Systems
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Japan
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The 22nd AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES
9-10 December 2016
MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)
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Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by
interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.
Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission
estimation
Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions
scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ
assessment
Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,
water cycle, sea level rise
SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory
Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies
Regional EmissionInventories and
Chemical Transfer Model
Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)
Climate and Environment
Model
Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia
AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario
Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation
Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)
MDG・SDG・Future Earth
StakeholdersPolicy makers
Society
Information transmissionSystem utilization
CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and
air pollution policies
Regional strategy
⇅Global
strategy
Science
Experiment setupDatabase development
Metric definitions
Model improvement
REASInventory
SLCP, AP, GHG emissions Based on SSP scenario
MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)
2
Global model AIM/CGE
Global model AIM/Enduse
National modelAIM/Enduse
HouseholdModel
Local Air pollution model
Theme3Env. & Climate
ImpactsGlobal emissions
scenarios onLLGHG・SLCP
Theme 1Emission inventory
Theme 4Synthesis
system
Local emissionsscenarios onLLGHG・SLCP
National emissions Scenarios onLLGHG・SLCP
Air
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tech
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logi
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Air
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Information for negotiation on GHG reductions
Env. & climatePolicy in JapanAssessment of
Env. & climate policies in Asia
Green:Relation to otherThem
Orange:Relation to Env.policies
Improvement of Enduse(Local activities &
Pollution Management Technologies)
Assessment of actions & policies
Future scenarios
Imp
rove
d in
ven
tory
Assessment ofmitigation costs &
climate change impacts
Emissions scenarioson LLGHG & SLCP
Future socio-economic scenarios
Env. & ClimateImpacts
Socio-economic scenario considering climate & Env. Impact
AIM models
Future Scenarios
Research goals
Sub-theme (2)
Sub-theme (1)
Sub-theme (3)
Challenges of S-12 Theme 2
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1. Estimating future (energy & non-energy ) service demands based on new socio-economic scenarios (i.e. SSPs: Shared-Socioecnomic Pathways) considering climate change and environmental impacts
2. indicating emissions scenarios of Long-lived GHGs(LLGHG) and Short lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) and air pollutants, based on new service demands estimations
3. Evaluating co-benefits of LLGHG mitigation measures and SLCP reduction measures, and analyzing regional characteristics in detail, in a manner consistent with long-term global scenarios such as 2℃ target.
4. Exploring the appropriate (optimal?) balance among LLGHGs measures, SLCPs measures and air pollutants measures from the viewpoint of health benefits and climate benefits.
Today’s topics
Characteristics of AIM/Enduse[Global] model
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◆ Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework
with optimizing the total system cost
◆ Recursive dynamic model (=Calculating year by year)
◆ Assessing technological transition over time
◆ Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon/energy tax, subsidy,
regulation and so on.
◆ Target Gas: both Long-Lived GHGs and Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CFCs, HCFCs, SO2, NOx, BC, etc
◆ Target Sectors : multiple sectors
power generation sector, industry sector, residential sector,
commercial sector, transport sector, agriculture sector,
municipal solid waste sector, fugitive emissions sector,
F-gas sector
(each of these can be further disaggregated into sub-sectors)
AIM/Enduse[Global] - Regional Classification, Target Gases and Sectors -
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Sector Sub sectors whose mitigation actions are considered in Enduse model(other subsectors are treated as scenario)
Power generation Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Renewable (Wind, Biomass, PV), Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal, Heat
Industry Iron and steel,Cement , Other industries (Boiler, motor etc)
Transportation Passenger vehicle, Truck,Bus,Ship, Aircraft,Passenger train,Freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport)
Residential & Commercial Cooling, Heating, Hot-water, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigerator, TV, Other equipments
Agriculture Livestock rumination, Manure management, Paddy field, Cropland
MSW Municipal solid waste, Waste water management
Fugitive Fugitive emission from fuel production
Fgas emissions By-product of HCFC-22, Refrigerant,Aerosol, Foams,Solvent, Etching,Aluminum production, Insulation gas, others.
CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCs SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 BC OC CO NH3 NMVOC HgFuel combustion ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔Industrial process ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Agriculture ✔ ✔ ✔Waste ✔
Fuel mining ✔Others ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Emission factors can be set by energy, by sector and by region over time. Settings on technology options are the same, too
World 32 regions
12 Asian regions
Seeking for Emissions Pathways of GHGs, SLCPs and Aps- climate impacts of reducing SO2 and BC -
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From the viewpoint of health impacts, SO2 should be reduced largely.
From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to local cooling effects, SO2 should not be reduced drastically.
From the viewpoint of health impacts, BC should be reduced largely.
From the viewpoint of climate impacts, BC should be reduced largely.
From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to local cooling effects, OC should not be reduced drastically.
If low-carbon actions toward 2℃ target are taken, SO2 will be reduced largely, by necessity Not only BC but also OC will be reduced
simultaneously.
Seeking for Emissions Pathways of GHGs, SLCPs and Aps- climate impacts of reducing NOx -
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From the viewpoint of health impacts, NOx should be reduced largely.
From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to chemical reactions toward increasing atmospheric CH , NOx should not be reduced drastically.
Concepts of future scenarios under S12 project- Seeking for Balance of LLGHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants emissions -
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① Targeting at achieving the 2 degree target, as the COP21 decided
② From the viewpoint of climate impacts of positive radiative forcing, LLGHGs (CO2, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and SLCPs (CH4, BC) should be reduced largely.
③ From the viewpoint of health impacts, air pollutants (PM2.5, SO2, BC, etc) should be reduced to a high enough level .
④ From the viewpoint of climate impacts of negative radiative forcing, some air pollutants (SO2, OC) are preferable to be reduced only to some extent.
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Example of diagnosis figures
S12 original scenarios for collaborative research under the S12 project
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Scenario Overview
① Frozen Technology Technologies and emissions factors are frozen in the base year. Thus, as the service demand increase, all emissions will also increase.
② Reference (=SSP2)Reference scenario that future mitigation polices & technologies are in line with the current trends
③ BC&PM Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing BC(&OC)&PM only
④ SO2 Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing SO2 only
⑤ SO2 MidTaking end of pipe measures for reducing a certain amount of SO2(健康影響の軽減と地域的な冷却効果について、シナリオ④との比較が目的)
⑥ NOx Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing NOx only
⑦ NOx MidTaking end of pipe measures for reducing a certain amount of NOx(健康影響の軽減と大気中CH4増による気候影響について、シナリオ⑥との比較が目的)
⑧ 2 degree ALLMax(cobenefit 1)
Mixing scenario③、④、⑥ and Low carbon measures toward 2℃ target, by taking into account cobenefits of reducing SLCPs and air pollutants
⑨ 2 degree ALLMid(cobenefit 2)
Mixing scenario ③、⑤、⑦ and Low carbon measures toward 2℃ target, by taking into account cobenefits of reducing SLCPs and air pollutants(健康影響の軽減、地域的な冷却効果、大気中CH4増による気候影響について、end of pipe対策や低炭素対策による共便益効果のシナリオ⑧との比較が目的)
To evaluate reductions of health impacts due to air pollutant measures and reductions of climate impacts due to GHG & SLCP measures, S-12 project sets the following scenarios
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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-
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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-
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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-2deg_AllMaxNOxMaxSO2MaxFznEF NOxMidSO2MidBCPMRef
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To reach “Hatching Area” in 2050, it is necessary to further consider of combinations of end-of-pipe measures and their intensity as well as combinations of energy mix constraints and low-carbon measures
Overview of additional Scenario Settings- Seeking for balance of LLGHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants emissions -
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Changing the settings of carbon taxes in order to discuss low-carbon society Changing the levels of air-pollutant control measures in order to discuss local air quality Changing energy policy choices: one of examples of discussing cobenefits & tradeoffs.① Promoting drastic energy shift (from high-carbon fossil fuel to less-carbon intensive
fuels or renewable energies) rather than coal & biomass power plant with CCS② Allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than drastic energy shift.
Scenario name 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Air pollution
measuresEnergy policy
Reference: SSP2 0 0 0 0 0 0 SSP2 level (i.e. BaU) SSP2 level (i.e. BaU)
T200 0 0 50 100 150 200 SSP2 levelPromoting energy shift
rather than coal & biomass power with CCS
T400 0 0 100 200 300 400 SSP2 levelPromoting energy shift
rather than coal & biomass power with CCS
T400ccs 0 0 100 200 300 400 SSP2 levelAllowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather
than drastic energy shift
T400ccs_BCPM 0 0 100 200 300 400SSP2 level
+BCPM measure high
Allowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather
than drastic energy shift
T400ccs_ALL 0 0 100 200 300 400SSP2 level
+ all air pollutant measure high
Allowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather
than drastic energy shift
[Unit: US$/tCO2 eq]
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Global Emissions pathways in this study- comparing with a set of well-known GHG emissions pathways by the UNEP Gap Report -
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2℃ median 2.5℃ median 3℃ median 3.5℃ median 4℃ median
Ref T200 T400
The reference scenario corresponds to the level of 3.5℃ increase pathway. To achieve the 2℃ target, future carbon price will be much higher than the
current levels, around 400 US$/tCO2eq in 2050
Note 1) Dashed lines show median values in the range of well-known GHG emissions pathways with a "likely" (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2℃, 2.5℃, 3℃, 3.5℃, 4℃, compared to pre-industrial levels reported by UNEP Gap Report
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EDGER4.2
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HTAP
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RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6Equivalent to 2℃ target
How to interpret 2℃ emissions scenarios in this study- example of PM2.5 in Asia
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Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment
Emission rebound effects (i.e. trade-off) by allowing coal plant with CCS and biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive or non-fossil fuel energies
Due to low carbon measures, there are large cobenefits of reducing air pollutants. However, if only considering low carbon measures, there are tradeoffs (i.e. emission
rebound effects) from the viewpoint of nonCO2 emissions Combinations of low carbon measures and nonCO2 measures are important
T400ccsT400 T400ccs_BCPM
HTAP
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REAS
Seeking for balanced emissions pathways - reduction ratio among GHGs, SLCPs and Air pollutions -
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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls
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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls
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T400T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_AllRef
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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls
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T400T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_AllRef
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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls
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Effect of introducing desulfurization equipment
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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls
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Cobenefits of low carbon measures
Trade-offs by allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive or non-fossil fuel energies
Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment
Effect of introducing desulfurization equipment
Cobenefits of low carbon measures
&effects of air
pollution controls
MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)
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Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by
interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.
Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission
estimation
Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions
scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ
assessment
Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,
water cycle, sea level rise
SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory
Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies
Regional EmissionInventories and
Chemical Transfer Model
Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)
Climate and Environment
Model
Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia
AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario
Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation
Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)
MDG・SDG・Future Earth
StakeholdersPolicy makers
Society
Information transmissionSystem utilization
CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and
air pollution policies
Regional strategy
⇅Global
strategy
Science
Experiment setupDatabase development
Metric definitions
Model improvement
Development of simple evaluation tool for analyzing emissions and reductions regarding GHGs, SLCPs & air pollutants
Theme 4
TM-ESS tool- Technology Matrix and Emission SnapShot Tool -
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By changing mitigation options diffusion ratio arbitrarily, you can analyze change of
reduction amounts and make a diagnosis about balancing reductions and directions
http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html
ご清聴ありがとうございました
AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models
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sio
ns
in A
sia
(Gt
CO
2e
q)
Cement
production
Value added
of 2nd industry
Agricultural
production
Fluorocarbon
emission
Transport volume
(Freight)
Energy service
(Residential)
Municipal solid
waste generation
Energy service
(Commercial)
Transportation
Demand Model
Household
Lifestyle Model
Municipal Solid
Waste Model
Cement
Production Model
Building
sector
Energy Supply
sector
Socio-economic
scenario
Agricultural Prod
& Trade model
Fluorocarbon
Emission Model
Agriculture
sector
Model DatabaseVariable
Solid waste
management sector
Transport volume
(Passenger)
Crude steel
production
Steel Production
& Trade Model
Gas fuel
Heat
Liquid fuel
Solid fuel
Hydrogen
Energy balance
Primary
energy
Energy price
Emission
factor
Energy
DB
Nuclear Hydro Geothermal
Solar Wind Biomass
Emissions
Energy mining
sectorGasCoal Oil
Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)
Macro
Economic
frame Model
Population &
Household number
GDP &
Sector value added
Macro-economic model
Iron and steel
sector
Cement
sector
Other industries
sector
Transport
sector
Fluorocarbon
sector
Energy Resource DB
Cost
Lifetime
Technology DB
Efficiency
Diffusion rate
Service demand models
Electricity
Roles of S12 Theme2 and collaboration with Theme 1 & 3
27
Emission
concentration
Emission Inventory
Database
CO2 CH4 N2O HFC PFC SF6 CFC HCFC SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 BC OC CO NH3NMVOC
EnduseGlobal
32 regions2010-2050
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
REAS v2.2Asia
29 regions2000-2010
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
EDGER v4.2Global
234 regions1970-2008
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
HTAP v2Global
17 regions2010 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
RCPGlobal
6 regions2000-2100
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Theme 1REAS v2
(Asia)
Global model AIM/Enduse
HTAP v2(Global)
EDGER v4.2(Global)
RCP(Global)
GAINS(Global)
Theme3Env. & Climate
Impacts
AIM/Downscale
MAGICC 6
Emission
(0.5×0.5)
Emission
(32 region)
Emission Factors Database
IPCC USEPA AP42 EMEP-EEA2013
GAINS Streets, et al Bond, et al
Lei, et alCao, et al Zhao, et al
SupportingReference
and so on
Scenario Dimensions – SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) -
28
(O’Neill, 2012)(Nakicenovic et al., 2000)
SSPsSRES
Previous representative scenarios(until IPCC AR4)
Latest representative scenarios(toward IPCC AR6)
See details about quantitative data and qualitative storieshttps://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about
Population and GDP in Asia in SSP scenarios
2929
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
(10
00
US$
20
05
/pe
rso
n) Japan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
(10
00
US$
20
05
/pe
rso
n) India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
(10
00
US$
20
05
/pe
rso
n) China
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P (
Trill
ion
US$
20
05
)
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P (
Trill
ion
US$
20
05
)
India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P (
Trill
ion
US$
20
05
)
China
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990 2010 2030 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
Japan
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990 2010 2030 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
India
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1990 2010 2030 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
China
Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
(10
00
US$
20
05
/pe
rso
n) ASEAN
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050
GD
P (
Trill
ion
US$
20
05
)
ASEAN
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 2010 2030 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n) ASEAN
POP
GDP
GDP/POP
Characteristics of socio-economic dynamics are different depending on countries & scenariosThey will influence on future estimations of service demands, energy consumption,etc.
AIM/Enduse[Global] model and element models
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
in A
sia
(Gt
CO
2e
q)
Building
sector
Energy Supply
sector
Agriculture
sector
Solid waste
management sector
Gas fuel
Heat
Liquid fuel
Solid fuel
Hydrogen
Energy balance
Primary
energy
Energy price
Emission
factor
Energy
DB
Nuclear Hydro Geothermal
Emissions
Energy mining
sectorGasCoal Oil
Iron and steel
sector
Cement
sector
Other industries
sector
Transport
sector
Fluorocarbon
sector
Energy Resource DB
Cost
Lifetime
Technology DB
Efficiency
Diffusion rate
Electricity
Select technologies to satisfy future service demands by sector and to
balance supply and demand, under various constraints
& under minimizing total system costs
By energy, sector and country, we can set various constraints such as Technology in the base year Energy balance in the base year Technology diffusion rate Speed of technology diffusion rate Technology constraints Energy constraints Speed of energy efficiency improvement Technology cost Induced technology costs etc
Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)
Solar Wind Biomass
Overview of mitigation measures
31
Four major groups of mitigation measures on GHG and air pollutants① End-of-pipe mitigation measures
e.g:desulfurization equipment [=SO2 reduction], denitrification equipment [=NOx reduciton], dust-collecting equipment [=BC, PM reduction], fertilization management in agriculture [=N2O reduciton], manure management [=CH4, N2O reduction], waste management [=CH4 reduction]
② Improvement of quality of fuelse.g.:shifting from high sulfur-content fuel to low-sulfur content fuel [=SO2 reduction]
③ Improvement of energy efficiencye.g.:Introduction of high-energy efficient technologies and reduction of energy
consumption [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], Low-carbon power in the supply side and electrification in the demand [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]
④ Drastic energy shiftinge.g.:shifting from coal to renewables or natural gas [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], diffusion
of hydrogen-fuel from renewables [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]
Effective for reducing (a) specific gas(es)
Effective for reducing a specific gas
Effective for reducing multiple gases
Effective for reducing multiple gases
various mitigation measures are available for promoting energy efficiency on both the demand and supply side, as well as reducing air pollutant by removal devices.