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Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 Target Scenarios Tatsuya HANAOKA Center for Social and Environmental Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan 0 The 22nd AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES 9-10 December 2016
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Page 1: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ℃

Target Scenarios

Tatsuya HANAOKA

Center for Social and Environmental Systems

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Japan

0

The 22nd AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES

9-10 December 2016

Page 2: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

1

Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by

interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.

Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission

estimation

Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions

scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ

assessment

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,

water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory

Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies

Regional EmissionInventories and

Chemical Transfer Model

Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)

Climate and Environment

Model

Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia

AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario

Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)

MDG・SDG・Future Earth

StakeholdersPolicy makers

Society

Information transmissionSystem utilization

CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and

air pollution policies

Regional strategy

⇅Global

strategy

Science

Experiment setupDatabase development

Metric definitions

Model improvement

REASInventory

SLCP, AP, GHG emissions Based on SSP scenario

Page 3: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

2

Global model AIM/CGE

Global model AIM/Enduse

National modelAIM/Enduse

HouseholdModel

Local Air pollution model

Theme3Env. & Climate

ImpactsGlobal emissions

scenarios onLLGHG・SLCP

Theme 1Emission inventory

Theme 4Synthesis

system

Local emissionsscenarios onLLGHG・SLCP

National emissions Scenarios onLLGHG・SLCP

Air

po

lluti

on

man

agem

ent

tech

no

logi

es

Air

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man

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po

licie

s an

d e

ven

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at n

atio

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cale

Information for negotiation on GHG reductions

Env. & climatePolicy in JapanAssessment of

Env. & climate policies in Asia

Green:Relation to otherThem

Orange:Relation to Env.policies

Improvement of Enduse(Local activities &

Pollution Management Technologies)

Assessment of actions & policies

Future scenarios

Imp

rove

d in

ven

tory

Assessment ofmitigation costs &

climate change impacts

Emissions scenarioson LLGHG & SLCP

Future socio-economic scenarios

Env. & ClimateImpacts

Socio-economic scenario considering climate & Env. Impact

AIM models

Future Scenarios

Research goals

Sub-theme (2)

Sub-theme (1)

Sub-theme (3)

Page 4: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Challenges of S-12 Theme 2

3

1. Estimating future (energy & non-energy ) service demands based on new socio-economic scenarios (i.e. SSPs: Shared-Socioecnomic Pathways) considering climate change and environmental impacts

2. indicating emissions scenarios of Long-lived GHGs(LLGHG) and Short lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) and air pollutants, based on new service demands estimations

3. Evaluating co-benefits of LLGHG mitigation measures and SLCP reduction measures, and analyzing regional characteristics in detail, in a manner consistent with long-term global scenarios such as 2℃ target.

4. Exploring the appropriate (optimal?) balance among LLGHGs measures, SLCPs measures and air pollutants measures from the viewpoint of health benefits and climate benefits.

Today’s topics

Page 5: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Characteristics of AIM/Enduse[Global] model

4

◆ Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework

with optimizing the total system cost

◆ Recursive dynamic model (=Calculating year by year)

◆ Assessing technological transition over time

◆ Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon/energy tax, subsidy,

regulation and so on.

◆ Target Gas: both Long-Lived GHGs and Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CFCs, HCFCs, SO2, NOx, BC, etc

◆ Target Sectors : multiple sectors

power generation sector, industry sector, residential sector,

commercial sector, transport sector, agriculture sector,

municipal solid waste sector, fugitive emissions sector,

F-gas sector

(each of these can be further disaggregated into sub-sectors)

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AIM/Enduse[Global] - Regional Classification, Target Gases and Sectors -

5

Sector Sub sectors whose mitigation actions are considered in Enduse model(other subsectors are treated as scenario)

Power generation Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Renewable (Wind, Biomass, PV), Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal, Heat

Industry Iron and steel,Cement , Other industries (Boiler, motor etc)

Transportation Passenger vehicle, Truck,Bus,Ship, Aircraft,Passenger train,Freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport)

Residential & Commercial Cooling, Heating, Hot-water, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigerator, TV, Other equipments

Agriculture Livestock rumination, Manure management, Paddy field, Cropland

MSW Municipal solid waste, Waste water management

Fugitive Fugitive emission from fuel production

Fgas emissions By-product of HCFC-22, Refrigerant,Aerosol, Foams,Solvent, Etching,Aluminum production, Insulation gas, others.

CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCs SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 BC OC CO NH3 NMVOC HgFuel combustion ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔Industrial process ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Agriculture ✔ ✔ ✔Waste ✔

Fuel mining ✔Others ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Emission factors can be set by energy, by sector and by region over time. Settings on technology options are the same, too

World 32 regions

12 Asian regions

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Seeking for Emissions Pathways of GHGs, SLCPs and Aps- climate impacts of reducing SO2 and BC -

6

From the viewpoint of health impacts, SO2 should be reduced largely.

From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to local cooling effects, SO2 should not be reduced drastically.

From the viewpoint of health impacts, BC should be reduced largely.

From the viewpoint of climate impacts, BC should be reduced largely.

From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to local cooling effects, OC should not be reduced drastically.

If low-carbon actions toward 2℃ target are taken, SO2 will be reduced largely, by necessity Not only BC but also OC will be reduced

simultaneously.

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Seeking for Emissions Pathways of GHGs, SLCPs and Aps- climate impacts of reducing NOx -

7

From the viewpoint of health impacts, NOx should be reduced largely.

From the viewpoint of climate impacts, due to chemical reactions toward increasing atmospheric CH , NOx should not be reduced drastically.

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Concepts of future scenarios under S12 project- Seeking for Balance of LLGHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants emissions -

8

① Targeting at achieving the 2 degree target, as the COP21 decided

② From the viewpoint of climate impacts of positive radiative forcing, LLGHGs (CO2, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and SLCPs (CH4, BC) should be reduced largely.

③ From the viewpoint of health impacts, air pollutants (PM2.5, SO2, BC, etc) should be reduced to a high enough level .

④ From the viewpoint of climate impacts of negative radiative forcing, some air pollutants (SO2, OC) are preferable to be reduced only to some extent.

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Present2010

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Present2010

Future2050

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? ??Future

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Example of diagnosis figures

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S12 original scenarios for collaborative research under the S12 project

9

Scenario Overview

① Frozen Technology Technologies and emissions factors are frozen in the base year. Thus, as the service demand increase, all emissions will also increase.

② Reference (=SSP2)Reference scenario that future mitigation polices & technologies are in line with the current trends

③ BC&PM Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing BC(&OC)&PM only

④ SO2 Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing SO2 only

⑤ SO2 MidTaking end of pipe measures for reducing a certain amount of SO2(健康影響の軽減と地域的な冷却効果について、シナリオ④との比較が目的)

⑥ NOx Max Strengthening end of pipe measures for drastically reducing NOx only

⑦ NOx MidTaking end of pipe measures for reducing a certain amount of NOx(健康影響の軽減と大気中CH4増による気候影響について、シナリオ⑥との比較が目的)

⑧ 2 degree ALLMax(cobenefit 1)

Mixing scenario③、④、⑥ and Low carbon measures toward 2℃ target, by taking into account cobenefits of reducing SLCPs and air pollutants

⑨ 2 degree ALLMid(cobenefit 2)

Mixing scenario ③、⑤、⑦ and Low carbon measures toward 2℃ target, by taking into account cobenefits of reducing SLCPs and air pollutants(健康影響の軽減、地域的な冷却効果、大気中CH4増による気候影響について、end of pipe対策や低炭素対策による共便益効果のシナリオ⑧との比較が目的)

To evaluate reductions of health impacts due to air pollutant measures and reductions of climate impacts due to GHG & SLCP measures, S-12 project sets the following scenarios

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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-

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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-

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Results of S12 scenarios – example of global and Asia-2deg_AllMaxNOxMaxSO2MaxFznEF NOxMidSO2MidBCPMRef

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To reach “Hatching Area” in 2050, it is necessary to further consider of combinations of end-of-pipe measures and their intensity as well as combinations of energy mix constraints and low-carbon measures

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Overview of additional Scenario Settings- Seeking for balance of LLGHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants emissions -

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Changing the settings of carbon taxes in order to discuss low-carbon society Changing the levels of air-pollutant control measures in order to discuss local air quality Changing energy policy choices: one of examples of discussing cobenefits & tradeoffs.① Promoting drastic energy shift (from high-carbon fossil fuel to less-carbon intensive

fuels or renewable energies) rather than coal & biomass power plant with CCS② Allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than drastic energy shift.

Scenario name 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050Air pollution

measuresEnergy policy

Reference: SSP2 0 0 0 0 0 0 SSP2 level (i.e. BaU) SSP2 level (i.e. BaU)

T200 0 0 50 100 150 200 SSP2 levelPromoting energy shift

rather than coal & biomass power with CCS

T400 0 0 100 200 300 400 SSP2 levelPromoting energy shift

rather than coal & biomass power with CCS

T400ccs 0 0 100 200 300 400 SSP2 levelAllowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather

than drastic energy shift

T400ccs_BCPM 0 0 100 200 300 400SSP2 level

+BCPM measure high

Allowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather

than drastic energy shift

T400ccs_ALL 0 0 100 200 300 400SSP2 level

+ all air pollutant measure high

Allowing coal & biomass power with CCS rather

than drastic energy shift

[Unit: US$/tCO2 eq]

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Global Emissions pathways in this study- comparing with a set of well-known GHG emissions pathways by the UNEP Gap Report -

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2℃ median 2.5℃ median 3℃ median 3.5℃ median 4℃ median

Ref T200 T400

The reference scenario corresponds to the level of 3.5℃ increase pathway. To achieve the 2℃ target, future carbon price will be much higher than the

current levels, around 400 US$/tCO2eq in 2050

Note 1) Dashed lines show median values in the range of well-known GHG emissions pathways with a "likely" (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2℃, 2.5℃, 3℃, 3.5℃, 4℃, compared to pre-industrial levels reported by UNEP Gap Report

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Emissions pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, REAS, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -

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EDGER4.2

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HTAP

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T400ccs_All

RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6Equivalent to 2℃ target

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How to interpret 2℃ emissions scenarios in this study- example of PM2.5 in Asia

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Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment

Emission rebound effects (i.e. trade-off) by allowing coal plant with CCS and biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive or non-fossil fuel energies

Due to low carbon measures, there are large cobenefits of reducing air pollutants. However, if only considering low carbon measures, there are tradeoffs (i.e. emission

rebound effects) from the viewpoint of nonCO2 emissions Combinations of low carbon measures and nonCO2 measures are important

T400ccsT400 T400ccs_BCPM

HTAP

Ref

REAS

Page 18: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Seeking for balanced emissions pathways - reduction ratio among GHGs, SLCPs and Air pollutions -

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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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T400T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_AllRef

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WorldCobenefits of low carbon measures

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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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T400T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_AllRef

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Trade-offs by allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive or non-fossil fuel energies

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How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

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T400T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_AllRef

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in 2

01

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

BC

em

issi

on

[val

ue

in 2

01

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

WorldCobenefits of low carbon measures

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5B

C e

mis

sio

n[v

alu

e in

20

10

= 1

]SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Trade-offs by allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive or non-fossil fuel energies

Page 22: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

21

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

BC

em

issi

on

[val

ue

in 2

01

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

T400T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_AllRef

Effect of introducing desulfurization equipment

Cobenefits of low carbon measures

&effects of air

pollution controls

Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment

Page 23: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

How to interpret the relations of relations of reducing SO2 and BC due to low carbon measures and air pollution controls

22

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

BC

em

issi

on

[val

ue

in 2

01

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

T400T200 T400ccs T400ccs_BCPM T400ccs_AllRef

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

BC

em

issi

on

[val

ue

in 2

01

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5B

C e

mis

sio

n[v

alu

e in

20

10

= 1

]SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

BC

em

issi

on

[val

ue

in 2

01

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

World

Cobenefits of low carbon measures

Trade-offs by allowing coal & biomass power plant with CCS rather than promoting the shift to less-carbon insensitive or non-fossil fuel energies

Effects of introducing dust collecting equipment

Effect of introducing desulfurization equipment

Cobenefits of low carbon measures

&effects of air

pollution controls

Page 24: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

23

Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by

interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.

Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission

estimation

Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions

scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ

assessment

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,

water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory

Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies

Regional EmissionInventories and

Chemical Transfer Model

Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)

Climate and Environment

Model

Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia

AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario

Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)

MDG・SDG・Future Earth

StakeholdersPolicy makers

Society

Information transmissionSystem utilization

CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and

air pollution policies

Regional strategy

⇅Global

strategy

Science

Experiment setupDatabase development

Metric definitions

Model improvement

Development of simple evaluation tool for analyzing emissions and reductions regarding GHGs, SLCPs & air pollutants

Theme 4

Page 25: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

TM-ESS tool- Technology Matrix and Emission SnapShot Tool -

24

By changing mitigation options diffusion ratio arbitrarily, you can analyze change of

reduction amounts and make a diagnosis about balancing reductions and directions

Page 26: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html

ご清聴ありがとうございました

Page 27: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

in A

sia

(Gt

CO

2e

q)

Cement

production

Value added

of 2nd industry

Agricultural

production

Fluorocarbon

emission

Transport volume

(Freight)

Energy service

(Residential)

Municipal solid

waste generation

Energy service

(Commercial)

Transportation

Demand Model

Household

Lifestyle Model

Municipal Solid

Waste Model

Cement

Production Model

Building

sector

Energy Supply

sector

Socio-economic

scenario

Agricultural Prod

& Trade model

Fluorocarbon

Emission Model

Agriculture

sector

Model DatabaseVariable

Solid waste

management sector

Transport volume

(Passenger)

Crude steel

production

Steel Production

& Trade Model

Gas fuel

Heat

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

Hydrogen

Energy balance

Primary

energy

Energy price

Emission

factor

Energy

DB

Nuclear Hydro Geothermal

Solar Wind Biomass

Emissions

Energy mining

sectorGasCoal Oil

Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)

Macro

Economic

frame Model

Population &

Household number

GDP &

Sector value added

Macro-economic model

Iron and steel

sector

Cement

sector

Other industries

sector

Transport

sector

Fluorocarbon

sector

Energy Resource DB

Cost

Lifetime

Technology DB

Efficiency

Diffusion rate

Service demand models

Electricity

Page 28: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Roles of S12 Theme2 and collaboration with Theme 1 & 3

27

Emission

concentration

Emission Inventory

Database

CO2 CH4 N2O HFC PFC SF6 CFC HCFC SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 BC OC CO NH3NMVOC

EnduseGlobal

32 regions2010-2050

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

REAS v2.2Asia

29 regions2000-2010

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

EDGER v4.2Global

234 regions1970-2008

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

HTAP v2Global

17 regions2010 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

RCPGlobal

6 regions2000-2100

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Theme 1REAS v2

(Asia)

Global model AIM/Enduse

HTAP v2(Global)

EDGER v4.2(Global)

RCP(Global)

GAINS(Global)

Theme3Env. & Climate

Impacts

AIM/Downscale

MAGICC 6

Emission

(0.5×0.5)

Emission

(32 region)

Emission Factors Database

IPCC USEPA AP42 EMEP-EEA2013

GAINS Streets, et al Bond, et al

Lei, et alCao, et al Zhao, et al

SupportingReference

and so on

Page 29: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Scenario Dimensions – SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) -

28

(O’Neill, 2012)(Nakicenovic et al., 2000)

SSPsSRES

Previous representative scenarios(until IPCC AR4)

Latest representative scenarios(toward IPCC AR6)

See details about quantitative data and qualitative storieshttps://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about

Page 30: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Population and GDP in Asia in SSP scenarios

2929

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P p

er

cap

ita

(10

00

US$

20

05

/pe

rso

n) Japan

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P p

er

cap

ita

(10

00

US$

20

05

/pe

rso

n) India

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P p

er

cap

ita

(10

00

US$

20

05

/pe

rso

n) China

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P (

Trill

ion

US$

20

05

)

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P (

Trill

ion

US$

20

05

)

India

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P (

Trill

ion

US$

20

05

)

China

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1990 2010 2030 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

n)

Japan

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1990 2010 2030 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

n)

India

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1990 2010 2030 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

n)

China

Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P p

er

cap

ita

(10

00

US$

20

05

/pe

rso

n) ASEAN

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2010 2030 2050

GD

P (

Trill

ion

US$

20

05

)

ASEAN

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1990 2010 2030 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

n) ASEAN

POP

GDP

GDP/POP

Characteristics of socio-economic dynamics are different depending on countries & scenariosThey will influence on future estimations of service demands, energy consumption,etc.

Page 31: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

AIM/Enduse[Global] model and element models

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

in A

sia

(Gt

CO

2e

q)

Building

sector

Energy Supply

sector

Agriculture

sector

Solid waste

management sector

Gas fuel

Heat

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

Hydrogen

Energy balance

Primary

energy

Energy price

Emission

factor

Energy

DB

Nuclear Hydro Geothermal

Emissions

Energy mining

sectorGasCoal Oil

Iron and steel

sector

Cement

sector

Other industries

sector

Transport

sector

Fluorocarbon

sector

Energy Resource DB

Cost

Lifetime

Technology DB

Efficiency

Diffusion rate

Electricity

Select technologies to satisfy future service demands by sector and to

balance supply and demand, under various constraints

& under minimizing total system costs

By energy, sector and country, we can set various constraints such as Technology in the base year Energy balance in the base year Technology diffusion rate Speed of technology diffusion rate Technology constraints Energy constraints Speed of energy efficiency improvement Technology cost Induced technology costs etc

Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)

Solar Wind Biomass

Page 32: Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air ... · Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Reducing GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Emissions When Exploring the 2 ... Socio-economic scenario

Overview of mitigation measures

31

Four major groups of mitigation measures on GHG and air pollutants① End-of-pipe mitigation measures

e.g:desulfurization equipment [=SO2 reduction], denitrification equipment [=NOx reduciton], dust-collecting equipment [=BC, PM reduction], fertilization management in agriculture [=N2O reduciton], manure management [=CH4, N2O reduction], waste management [=CH4 reduction]

② Improvement of quality of fuelse.g.:shifting from high sulfur-content fuel to low-sulfur content fuel [=SO2 reduction]

③ Improvement of energy efficiencye.g.:Introduction of high-energy efficient technologies and reduction of energy

consumption [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], Low-carbon power in the supply side and electrification in the demand [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]

④ Drastic energy shiftinge.g.:shifting from coal to renewables or natural gas [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], diffusion

of hydrogen-fuel from renewables [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]

Effective for reducing (a) specific gas(es)

Effective for reducing a specific gas

Effective for reducing multiple gases

Effective for reducing multiple gases

various mitigation measures are available for promoting energy efficiency on both the demand and supply side, as well as reducing air pollutant by removal devices.


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