p1 Coca crops and human development Document prepared by UNODC with the analytic collaboration of Carlos Resa Nestares, Investigator of the Department of Economic Structure and Economy for De- velopment - Autonomous University of Madrid. This is not an official United Nations document. The designations used in this material as well as its presentation do not imply in any way the opinion of the legal status, terri- tories, cities, areas, authorities or in relation to the delimitation of borders and limits of any country by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). This docu- ment has not been formally edited and is open for discussion. Analytical Brief
Transcript
p1
Coca crops and human development
Document prepared by UNODC with the analytic collaboration of Carlos Resa
Nestares, Investigator of the Department of Economic Structure and Economy for De-
velopment - Autonomous University of Madrid.
This is not an official United Nations document. The designations used in this material
as well as its presentation do not imply in any way the opinion of the legal status, terri-
tories, cities, areas, authorities or in relation to the delimitation of borders and limits
of any country by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). This docu-
ment has not been formally edited and is open for discussion.
Analytical Brief
p2
Coca crops and human development
Is coca farming the road to human economic and social development? As in any other
product decision made by farmers, the economic incentive is undoubtedly the strong-
est impulse in the decision of individuals to embark in coca cultivation. Whether or
not the decision is a safe route to social prosperity is something that can be better de-
termined based on the data analysis of the Human Development Index (HDI) prepared
by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
HDI and coca crops by districts In Peru the number of hectares cultivated annually has varied in the last decade from
forty five thousand to sixty thousand hectares, according to data provide by UNODC’s
Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme in Peru. These figures have been very much below
the historic maximums of over one hundred thousand hectares of coca crops reached
at the end of the decade of the eighties and beginning of the nineties.
During this period that comprehends from 2002 to 2012, the Monitoring Programme
registered the presence of coca cultivation in one hundred and twenty districts of Pe-
ru, which represents 6.5 per cent of the total of 1,834 districts existing in the country.
In 2012 these districts had a total population of 1,457,139 inhabitants, representing
4.8 per cent of the total population in Peru. In 2012 the average HDI, weighted by
population, of the coca producing districts was significantly lower than the Peruvian
average: an HDI of 0,312 in the coca farming districts compared to 0,498 in districts
with no coca cultivation.
Average HDI by districts according to coca cultivation, 2012
HDI
Districts with coca cultivation 0,31993
Districts without coca cultivation 0,49895 Weighted by population. Source: Self elaboration based on data from UNDP-HDI.
In other words, the HDI in districts where coca farming is not practiced is 60 per cent
This document was prepared with the analytic collaboration of Carlos Resa Nestares, Re-
searcher of the Department of Economics and Development Economy of the Autonomous
University of Madrid.
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higher than in those with coca farming. However, although as a whole the HDI levels
are manifestly lower than the Peruvian average, a notorious difference exists between
the coca farming districts. Coca farming is not found particularly in districts of extreme
poverty; the majority of crops are located in districts with a mid-range classification
according to their HDI. Sixty seven out of one hundred and twenty districts where
coca is cultivated, that is fifty six per cent of the total, are located in the middle band
of HDI distribution per district in Peru.
In other words, over half of the coca farming districts are between thirty and seventy
per cent with higher levels of all districts. Forty one other districts where coca is culti-
vated, thirty four per cent of the total are located in the thirty per cent of Peruvian
districts with the lowest levels of HDI. In the opposite extreme, twelve coca farming
districts are within the group located in the thirty percent of districts with the highest
HDI in Peru and one of the districts where coca cultivation has been registered in the
last decade, Huepetuhe, is in the privileged group of the ten percent of Peruvian dis-
tricts with the highest HDI.
Districts with coca crops per HDI deciles, 2012
Decile Number of coca farming districts
Percentage over districts in their HDI decile
1 (10% of districts with the lowest HDI) 20 10,9%
2 11 6,0%
3 10 5,5%
4 21 11,5%
5 19 10,4%
6 15 8,2%
7 12 6,5%
8 5 2,7%
9 6 3,3%
10 (10% of districts with highest HDI) 1 0,5%
120 6,5% Not weighted by population. Source: Self elaboration based on data from UNDP-HDI.
The difference in the development level between the coast and the interior of Peru
and the concentration of coca crops in the Andean region and the rain forest area ex-
plains part of the difference of HDI between districts where coca is cultivated and
those where there are no coca crops. However, the HDI of coca farming districts is
lower than the HDI of non-coca farming districts in almost all the regions of Peru. The
only exceptions to this behavior of a relatively lower development in coca farming dis-
tricts exist in the region of San Martin and Huanuco, where there is a slight difference
in the HDI in favor of the coca farming districts.
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From this territorial perspective two clear elements appear: on one hand, coca crops
are rooted in particularly impoverished areas, and, on the other, a decade of coca cul-
tivation, with the monetary benefits accrued for its producers, has not been capable of
closing the gap in the development levels with regard to districts specialized in other
economic activities.
Therefore, coca crops are not only located in places with lower development levels in
comparison with Peru as a whole, but also within its own region. This difference is
only explained partially by the traditional and persistent development difference be-
tween urban centers and outlying rural areas, at the Peruvian scale as well as within
each region.
Average HDI of coca farming and non-coca farming districts per region, 2012
Population living in coca farming dis-tricts
Average HDI of coca farming districts
Average HDI of non coca farm-ing districts
HDI difference between dis-tricts with coca and without coca
Amazonas 5,9% 0,2715 0,3372 -0,0657
Ayacucho 15,1% 0,2531 0,3333 -0,0802
Cajamarca 6,5% 0,2283 0,3383 -0,1100
Cusco 15,5% 0,3501 0,4189 -0,0688
Huanuco 26,9% 0,3542 0,3387 +0,0155
Junin 12,2% 0,2840 0,4570 -0,1730
La Libertad 7,9% 0,2189 0,4659 -0,2469
Loreto 18,9% 0,2920 0,3997 -0,1077
Madre de Dios 7,7% 0,5360 0,5683 -0,0324
Pasco 12,3% 0,2633 0,4072 -0,1439
Puno 4,9% 0,3417 0,3701 -0,0284
San Martin 15,5% 0,4226 0,3906 +0,0319
Ucayali 16,1% 0,3531 0,4432 -0,0900
Peru 4,8% 0,3120 0,4980 -0,1860 Weighted by population. Source: Self elaboration based on data from HDI-UNDP
In 2012 the HDI of districts with coca farming was an average of 0,098 points inferior to that recorded on the average in the region where it coexists if not weighted by the population and 0,075 if weighted by the population. Only eleven of the one hundred and twenty districts where the existence of coca crops was found along the last decade show a HDI above the average found in the region. In other words, the coca farming districts register an average development differential of twenty five per cent with re-gard to the HDI average of the region where they are located.
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Historical evolution of the district HDI and coca crops Between 2003 and 2012 the HDI calculated according to UNDP’s new reweighting, in-
creased in Peru as a whole by 0,114 points. On the contrary, the average HDI growth,
weighted by population, in the one hundred and twenty districts where coca was culti-
vated during this decade, was barely half: 0,078 points. Only eleven of these districts,
that group 16,6 per cent of the population that live in districts where there is coca
farming, surpass the average HDI growth in Peru as a whole.
Average HDI per district according to the existence of coca crops, 2003 and 2012
HDI 2012 HDI 2003 Absolute variation
Districts with coca crops 0,3120 0,2339 +0,0781
Districts without coca crops 0,4980 0,3812 +0,1148 Weighted by population. Source: Self elaboration based on data from HDI-UNDP.
It could be assumed from a mere theoretical stand point that the divergence found
along the last decade in coca farming districts with regard to the whole of Peru could
be the effect of an effective reduction of income perceived by farmers in these districts
and, ultimately, a depression of the HDI in the area. But the reality is precisely the
opposite. On one hand, the hectares with coca cultivation have increased in 36.6 per
cent during the decade in Peru, going from 44,200 in 2003 to 60,400 in 2012, which in
principle would imply an increase of the economic contribution of coca to the econom-
ic development of districts where it is produced.
The improvement in farming techniques has also increased the yield per hectare,
which should also result in greater income for farmers. On the other hand, the aver-
age price for coca leaf has increased in over fifty per cent along this period, going from
2.1 dollars per kilogram in 2003 to 3.3 dollars in 2013. Therefore, it is possible to dis-
card that the relative impoverishment of coca growing districts can have its origin in a
reduction of the cultivated area or of the prices received for production.
Another alternative explanation to this relative depreciation of the HDI in coca growing
districts could be found in the economic and social development of their surrounding
environment. However, none of this is possible to explain in light of the data, but ra-
ther the opposite. When comparing the HDI evolution in coca farming districts versus
non-coca farming districts in the same region a general pattern has been observed,
being that the HDI has had a better performance in the non-coca farming districts.
With the exception of the districts located in Madre de Dios, San Martin and Puno, the
HDI growth in coca farming districts has been lower to that recorded in non-coca farm-
ing neighboring districts. Therefore, there seems to be a territorial pattern in the HDI
evolution that would be playing against coca-farming districts extending beyond the
evolution of crop yield or the sale price of the final product.
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Average variation of the HDI between 2003 and 2012 in the coca farming and non-coca farming districts per region
Variation of the HDI in districts with coca cultivation
Variation of the HDI in districts without coca cultivation
Difference in HDI between districts with coca and with-out coca
Amazonas +0,0509 +0,0899 -0,0389
Ayacucho +0,0654 +0,0820 -0,0165
Cajamarca +0,0224 +0,0927 -0,0702
Cusco +0,1101 +0,1311 -0,0210
Huanuco +0,1315 +0,1325 -0,0009
Junin +0,0501 +0,1100 -0,0599
La Libertad -0,0224 +0,1118 -0,1342
Loreto +0,0683 +0,1535 -0,0852
Madre de Dios +0,2538 +0,2055 +0,0483
Pasco +0,0315 +0,0974 -0,0659
Puno +0,0789 +0,0748 +0,0041
San Martin +0,1519 +0,1259 +0,0260
Ucayali +0,1071 +0,1390 -0,0319
Perú +0,0781 +0,1148 -0,0367 Weighted by population. Source: Self elaboration based on data from HDI - UNDP
From a different perspective, the coca farming districts have lost the train of develop-
ment of their immediate surroundings during the last decade. In 2003 the average
distance in HDI between coca farming districts and the average in their region was
0,047 points in 2012 the distance has jumped to 0,098 points, without weighting by
population. If weighted by the population of each district, the gap between coca farm-
ing districts and the average of the region had increase in similar proportions: from
0,035 distance points in 2003 up to 0,075 points in 2012. In 2003 fifteen out of one
hundred and twenty coca farming districts registered a HDI above the regional aver-
age, in 2012 the number went down to eleven.
Average difference of the districts HDI in relation to the regional average 2003 and
2012
2003 2012
Not weighted by population -0,0466 -0,0984
Weighted by population -0,0345 -0,0754 Source: Self elaboration based on the data from HDI-UNDP
p7
The case of Tocache In spite of a slightly increasing tendency of the overall number of coca crop
hectares in Peru, the province of Tocache has experienced a remarkable reduc-
tion in the intensity of coca crops. It has gone from cultivating 2,304 hectares
in 2004 to merely 455 hectares in 2011.
This decline of economic activity lubricated by coca farming has not been re-
flected at the level of economic development in the region. On the contrary
the districts of Tocache have shown the greatest progress in their average HDI
, slightly above the rest of districts in San Martin, ahead of the HDI registered
in districts with no coca cultivation and well ahead of the HDI registered in the
rest of districts in Peru with coca crops.
HDI 2003
HDI 2012
Varia-tion
Districts with coca cultivation 0,2300 0,3051 +0,0752
Districts without coca cultivation 0,3859 0,5006 +0,1147
Remainder of districts in San Martin
0,2675 0,3907 +0,1231
Coca farming districts of Tocache 0,2851 0,4413 +0,1562 Weighted by population.
Source: self elaboration based on HDI – UNDP
Tocache has become a regional development model and reference, with a coca alternative productive development base that has been ratified by the HDI data. San Martin is the region with the greatest poverty reduction in recent years. This reduction has been more intense in the rural rain forest area thanks to the dynamics of primary activities due to the increasing yield and prices.
This is precisely the area of intervention of alternative development strategies, where it has developed its full potential and has been crucial for the impact reached. Alternative development has promoted three of the crops with the largest cultivated area in the Peruvian rain forest such as palm oil and cacao, as well as coffee that is the main product with the largest export volumes and highest income for producers previously dedicated to coca farming.
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Demographics and coca crops
In the past coca crops could play a relevant role as a magnet for internal migrations
due to the economic opportunities associated to this activity. But in spite of the in-
crease in cultivated surface and the sale prices for coca leaf, this initial seduction for
internal migration to districts with coca cultivation seems to have become saturated
with the passing of time and lost its allure and even becoming negative.
In 2003, 1,375,316 people inhabited the one hundred and twenty districts where coca
cultivation had been practiced during the decade. In 2012, the population in the
same districts had increased 5.9 per cent reaching 1,457,139 inhabitants. This growth,
notwithstanding, is notably inferior, a little less than half, to the population increase of
11.3 per cent observed in the rest of Peru. The percentage of Peruvian population that
resides in coca farming districts has declined during the last decade from 5,1 per cent
in 2003 to 4, 8 per cent in 2012.
Population living in districts with and without coca cultivation, 2003 and 2012
2003 2012 Variation
Districts with coca cultivation 1.375.316 1.457.139 +5,9%
Districts without coca cultivation 25.775.462 28.678.736 +11,3%
Population in districts with coca over the to-tal
5,1% 4,8%
This relative decrease of population in coca farming districts is observed even when
the comparison is limited to regions where coca crops exist. The growth of 5,9 per
cent in coca farming districts is lower than the 7,1 per cent recorded in the districts of
the same regions where coca was not grown during the last decade. From these fig-
ures one can infer that the capacity of coca crops to attract population has diminished
along time until becoming inferior to that recorded in places where coca crops do not
exist, which, moreover, results to be coherent with the logic that non coca farming
districts have recorded greater levels of growth in their HDI.
HDI and amount of coca crops The least developed districts of Peru are not those dedicated more intensely to coca farming and, consequently, are more dependent on coca farming. Over half of the hectares of coca cultivated in Peru were located in districts placed in the fifth and sixth deciles of the distribution of IDH per district. Thirty four of the one hundred and twenty coca farming districts are in this middle band of HDI district classification. In other words, over half of the coca cultivated hectares are cultivated in one fourth of the coca farming districts that present an HDI near the average, which would tend to
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divert from the idea that it is extreme poverty which situates itself in the origin of coca cultivation.
Distribution of hectares cultivated with coca by HDI deciles, 2012 (percentage of the total number of hectares with coca crops)
Decile Number of coca farming districts
Percentage of hec-tares cultivated with coca
1 (10% of districts with lowest HDI) 20 1,9%
2 11 8,3%
3 10 5,7%
4 21 8,6%
5 19 30,4%
6 15 26,1%
7 12 6,9%
8 5 7,5%
9 6 4,6%
10 (10% of districts with highest HDI) 1 0,0%
120 100,0% Not weighted by population. Source: Self elaboration based on data from HDI – UNDP
A theoretical explanation of this relative depreciation of HDI in coca farming districts
could be found in the internal migration of crops that have been accumulated in more
impoverished areas in the rest of its economic vectors. However, none of this is possi-
ble to explain based on the data. On one hand, the migration of coca crops observed
from the inter-district variation, with the exception of a few districts, has been small
along the decade.
On the other hand, districts with an increase in coca farming have not shown greater
development. If we conduct a lineal regression between the quantity of coca crops
per capita and the district HDI, the relation between both variables, although very
marginal (R2 = 0,06 if it is weighted by the population and R2 = 1 is a perfect correlation
and R2 = 0 is a null correlation), is negative. The same scarcely significant relation alt-
hough negative can be perceived when reduced in analysis to municipalities with great
surfaces dedicated to coca crops (over one hundred hectares on an annual average) or
it is limited to districts that register greater density levels of crops per capita. In other
words, on the average and with an adjustment far from perfect, if the amount of hec-
tares dedicated to coca cultivation is reduced, the HDI increases.
p10
Weighted by population. Source: Self elaboration based on data from HDI – UNDP
The evidence derived from this regression, although statistically insignificant, is un-
questionable: a complete eradication of coca crops has a neutral effect over the evolu-
tion of the HDI in the district and, in the best case, implies a positive evolution of the
HDI in the district. Moreover, this results in being coherent with the referred HDI ten-
dency in Peru as a whole that in the last decade has had a better behavior in the non-
coca growing districts than in those where coca is produced, in spite of the general
increase in coca crops.
p11
Coca cultivated hectares per district, 2002-2012 (annual average)
District Province Region Hectares
Monzon Huamalies Huanuco 7.496
Yanatile Calca Cusco 4.030
Llochegua Huanta Ayacucho 2.692
Santa Rosa La Mar Ayacucho 2.602
Santa Ana La Convencion Cusco 2.403
Pichari La Convencion Cusco 2.368
Quellouno La Convencion Cusco 2.317
Kimbiri La Convencion Cusco 2.245
Rupa-Rupa Leoncio Prado Huánuco 1.973
Alto Inambari Sandia Puno 1.813
San Miguel La Mar Ayacucho 1.734
Anco La Mar Ayacucho 1.435
José Crespo y Castillo Leoncio Prado Huanuco 1.418
Maranura La Convencion Cusco 1.205
Echarati La Convencion Cusco 1.098
Pangoa Satipo Junin 1.083
Padre Abad Padre Abad Ucayali 1.028
Sivia Huanta Ayacucho 1.011
San Pedro de Putina Punco Sandia Puno 909
Puerto Bermudez Oxapampa Pasco 892
Luyando Leoncio Prado Huanuco 876
Mariano DámasoBeraun Leoncio Prado Huanuco 842
Cochabamba Huacaybamba Huanuco 736
Santa Teresa La Convención Cusco 732
Yuyapichis Puerto Inca Huanuco 702
Río Tambo Satipo Junin 696
Ocobamba La Convencion Cusco 668
Irazola Padre Abad Ucayali 548
Ayapata Carabaya Puno 516
Ayna La Mar Ayacucho 515
Ramon Castilla Mariscal Ramon Castilla Loreto 440
Daniel Alomía Robles Leoncio Prado Huanuco 440
Pólvora Tocache San Martin 436
Huayopata La Convencion Cusco 308
Cholon Marañon Huanuco 300
Tocache Tocache San Martin 236
Yavari Mariscal Ramón Castilla Loreto 230
Teniente Manuel Clavero Maynas Loreto 216
Kosñipata Paucartambo Cusco 216
San Gaban Carabaya Puno 207
Mazamari Satipo Junin 172
Putumayo Maynas Loreto 163
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District Province Region Hectares
Uchiza Tocache San Martin 135
Balsas Chachapoyas Amazonas 112
Vilcabamba La Convencion Cusco 104
Pisuquia Luya Amazonas 99
Ongon Pataz La Libertad 92
Nuevo Progreso Tocache San Martin 90
San Juan del Oro Sandia Puno 90
Napo Maynas Loreto 77
Cocabamba Luya Amazonas 73
Jircan Huamalies Huanuco 69
HermilioValdizan Leoncio Prado Huanuco 55
Otuzco Otuzco La Libertad 55
San Pablo Mariscal Ramon Castilla Loreto 49
Ocumal Luya Amazonas 49
Campanilla Mariscal Caceres San Martin 45
Yanahuaya Sandia Puno 40
Sayapullo Gran Chimu La Libertad 35
Lucma Gran Chimu La Libertad 33
Huaranchal Otuzco La Libertad 30
Celendin Celendin Cajamarca 28
Cascas Gran Chimu La Libertad 28
Chinchao Huanuco Huanuco 25
Jose Sabogal San Marcos Cajamarca 25
Compin Gran Chimu La Libertad 21
Pataz Pataz La Libertad 21
Bambamarca Bolivar La Libertad 19
Chumuch Celendin Cajamarca 18
Camanti Quispicanchi Cusco 18
Longotea Bolivar La Libertad 17
Sitacocha Cajabamba Cajamarca 17
Cortegana Celendin Cajamarca 16
Bolívar Bolivar La Libertad 15
Providencia Luya Amazonas 14
Campoverde Coronel Portillo Ucayali 13
Camporredondo Luya Amazonas 13
Indiana Maynas Loreto 13
Phara Sandia Puno 13
Llaylla Satipo Junin 13
Charat Otuzco La Libertad 12
Sartibamba Sanchez Carrion La Libertad 12
Chuquibamba Chachapoyas Amazonas 11
Usquil Otuzco La Libertad 11
Choropampa Chota Cajamarca 10
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District Province Region Hectares
Chungui La Mar Ayacucho 10
Codo del Pozuzo Puerto Inca Huanuco 10
Puerto Inca Puerto Inca Huanuco 9
Palcazu Oxapampa Pasco 7
Cospán Cajamarca Cajamarca 7
Utco Celendin Cajamarca 7
Oxamarca Celendin Cajamarca 6
Ayahuanco Huanta Ayacucho 6
Chimban Chota Cajamarca 6
Condormarca Bolivar La Libertad 5
Cochorco Sanchez Carrion La Libertad 5
Manu Manu Madre de Dios 5
Mazan Maynas Loreto 5
Ucuncha Bolívar La Libertad 4
Inahuaya Ucayali Loreto 4
Torres Causana Maynas Loreto 4
Miguel Iglesias Celendin Cajamarca 3
Juanjui Mariscal Caceres San Martin 3
Pachiza Mariscal Caceres San Martin 3
Jorge Chavez Celendin Cajamarca 3
Shunte Tocache San Martin 2
Jose Manuel Quiroz San Marcos Cajamarca 2
Contamana Ucayali Loreto 2
Huepetuhe Manu Madre de Dios 2
Sandia Sandia Puno 1
Vargas Guerra Ucayali Loreto 1
Pajarillo Mariscal Caceres San Martin 1
Masisea Coronel Portillo Ucayali 1
Coviriali Satipo Junin 1
Pion Chota Cajamarca 1
Tournavista Puerto Inca Huanuco 1
Satipo Satipo Junin 0
Pebas Mariscal Ramon Castilla Loreto 0
Los Amazonas Maynas Loreto 0
Huicungo Mariscal Caceres San Martin 0
Padre Marquez Ucayali Loreto 0
Pampa Hermosa Ucayali Loreto 0
TOTAL 53.808
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Coca cultivated hectares per province, 2002-2012 (annual average)
Province Region Hectares
La Convencion Cusco 13.448
Huamalies Huanuco 7.565
La Mar Ayacucho 6.295
Leoncio Prado Huanuco 5.604
Calca Cusco 4.030
Huanta Ayacucho 3.709
Sandia Puno 2.865
Satipo Junin 1.965
Padre Abad Ucayali 1.576
Oxapampa Pasco 900
Tocache San Martin 900
Huacaybamba Huanuco 736
Carabaya Puno 723
Puerto Inca Huanuco 721
Mariscal Ramon Castilla Loreto 719
Maynas Loreto 477
Marañón Huanuco 300
Luya Amazonas 248
Paucartambo Cusco 216
Chachapoyas Amazonas 123
Gran Chimu La Libertad 117
Pataz La Libertad 113
Otuzco La Libertad 108
Celendin Cajamarca 82
Bolivar La Libertad 60
Mariscal Caceres San Martin 53
San Marcos Cajamarca 27
Huanuco Huanuco 25
Quispicanchi Cusco 18
Chota Cajamarca 17
Cajabamba Cajamarca 17
Sanchez Carrion La Libertad 17
Coronel Portillo Ucayali 14
Ucayali Loreto 8
Cajamarca Cajamarca 7
Manu Madre de Dios 7
TOTAL 53.808
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Coca cultivated hectares per Region, 2002-2012 (anual average)
