COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013

Are the emerging middle classes the key to success?The middle class and political demandsin Russia

> Natalia ZUBAREVICH,Professor of Moscow state university, Director of regional program of independent institute for social policy

1

/

Russia: GDP and money income growth rate, (1998 = 100 %)

2COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GDP Money income

20% population with the highest income

- 350%

20% population with the highest income

- 350%

/

Middle classes criteria: low consistency,2011, % households

3COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013

Professional status

21%

Professional status

21%

Income and property

28%

Income and property

28%

Self-identification

25%

Self-identification

25%

10%10%

9%9%

10%10%

5%5%

GGS survey - 2011: 11,261 households

Source: IISP

Core of the middle class (3 criteria) only 5%

households

2 criteria + 3d(above low class)19%

Core of the middle class (3 criteria) only 5%

households

2 criteria + 3d(above low class)19%

/

Russia: Socio-economic stratification,%

4COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013

1923

24

12 16 19

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2007 2011

middle classMC periphery below MCLC peripherylow class

Source: IISP

/

Moscow 40% more 2011

Moscow 40% more 2011

Entrepreneurs share decline: 2007 – 13% 2011 – 11%

Entrepreneurs share decline: 2007 – 13% 2011 – 11%

MC: 25-49 years old singles and couples MC: 25-49 years old singles and couples

Middle class: spatial, labor and age structure

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MC share of all households, %

Source: IISP

1612

4

1916

8

30

21

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

regional centers other cities and towns countryside

2004 2007 2011

100%

23

36

11

23

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

not working

both sectors

entrepreneurs

market sector

budget sector

womenmen

3

2

1

-450 -300 -150 0 150 300 450

less 29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

more 70

33

2211

/

20

11

9

108

5

26

12

31%

Russia-1big cities

31-35%

Russia-3small towns

and rural periphery

Russia-2medium sized industrial cities

Spatial structure of Russian population, % Center-periphery model

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cities 1 million more

500 thous.-1 million

250 – 500 thousand

100 – 250 thousand

50-100 thousand

50 thousand less

small urban settlements

rural settlements

Population

Ru

ssia

-1R

uss

ia-2

Ru

ssia

-3

/

Share of votes for V. Putin (local precincts), %

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min max

Russia total - 63,6% (official data). Center-periphery model works but not everywhere…