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Special Warfare Education Group (Airborne)

POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN LIBYADate

CPT DAPICE, SSG HANCOCK, SGT GWYNN, SGT SANTORO

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Agenda

1. Libya in Contexta) Geographic Overviewb) Historyc) Recent Events

2. Causes of Political Instability

3. Effects of Instability on External and Internal Security

4. Economic Context

5. Libya and US National Security Strategy

6. The Way Ahead: Future US Policy in Libya

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Thesis and Purpose

THESISThe absence of strong and independent political institutions is the greatest obstacle to Libya’s future development and security because it perpetuates regional instability, affects the global economy, and enables terrorist activity, all of which have serious implications for the United States’ national security objectives.

This brief uses the PMESII-PT analysis system to examine the current situation in Libya, specifically with regard to Libya’s political institutions and governance issues. It will conclude with an analysis of Libya’s relevance to the United States National Security Strategy (USNSS) and propose a “way ahead” for the United States in Libya.

PURPOSE

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Geographical Overview

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Tribal Overview

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History (Gaddafi era)

• Colonel Muammar Gaddafi becomes leader of Libya on September 1, 1969

• In 1970 Gaddafi removes U.S and British bases from Libya

• Libyan Government funds a wide number of terrorist groups

• In 1986 U.S seeks retribution and bombs Tripoli

• Libya renounces its nuclear program

• 2011 Libyan revolution starts

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Post-Gaddafi Timeline

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Causes of Libya’s Political Instability

SOCIAL TENSIONS

Role of Militias• Filling security vacuum

• Competing economic and political interests

• No established Civil-Military relationship

WEAK CENTRAL GOVERNMENTUnable to project power or establish authority

Transition Government• Interim Constitution

• Inexperienced civil servants

• Undefined role of government

• Absence of modern infrastructure

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Security Overview

• Lack of centralised security force

• Lack of training, poorly equipped

• Prevalence of unaccountable local

armed militias

• Border Instability

• Absence of essential services and

internal instability

• Increasing militancy

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Effects of Instability: External Security

• Libya has land borders of approximately 4000 kilometers shared with

six countries: Algeria, Niger, Sudan, Egypt, Chad, and Tunisia.

• Southern Libya continues to see frequent clashes between militias.

• Libya’s borders are not sufficiently controlled by any central authority

and are therefore a potential source of serious instability.

• Results from having the lack of control over cross-border movement

1. Movement and trade of heavy arms

2. Access to uncontrolled territory and movement across borders by

international criminal and terrorist organizations.

3. Illegal human trafficking, including refugees.

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Effects of Instability: Internal Security

• Libya’s rural and urban area’s severely lack in infrastructure, and access to essential services resulting from chronic crisis.

• Libya’s lack of primary health care facilities

• Social inequality

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Economic ContextEconomic role in increasing stability Stable

Society

Unstable Society

Main Economic Issues in Libya:

Instability discourages foreign direct investment (FDI)Absence of infrastructure for economic developmentGap between desired jobs and available jobs

Impact: Continued political instability will prevent effective reintegration of militias and will prevent foreign investment, which will hinder true economic recovery.

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US National Security Strategy

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Libya and the USNSSA stable and democratic Libya will help ensure stability and assist with Counter

Terrorism operations in the MENA region, improve the energy security of US allies, and provide a model modern Arab democracy that is supportive of Western foreign policy.

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Current Policy Actions

Focus on political support:

• Constitutional development

• Election management and administration

• Political party development and voter outreach

• Supporting new representative bodies

Future military presence a sensitive topic for Libyans

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The Way AheadSECURITY

•Assist with disarming and retraining militia members

•Provide assistance with border security

•Prevent proliferation of weapons

GOVERNANCE

•Rule of Law and reconciliation

•Training programs for civil servants

• Assist with Constitution development

CIVIL SOCIETY

•Engage Libyans across multiple platforms

•Continue to encourage political participation and growth

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QUESTIONS