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Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based...

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1/27/2014 Cohort and Period Approaches Hermann Brenner Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg
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Page 1: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

1/27/2014

Cohort and Period Approaches

Hermann Brenner

Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging ResearchDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research

German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg

Page 2: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Period approaches - brief history (1)

• Introduced in 1996 (Brenner & Gefeller, Cancer 1996)

• Aim: More up-to-date survival estimates

• Ignored / boycotted for several years

• Comprehensive empirical evaluations

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

• Comprehensive empirical evaluations

(e.g. Brenner & Hakulinen, IJE 2002, JCO 2002; Talbäck et al , EJC 2004)

• User friendly computer programs

(e.g. SAS, Brenner , Hakulinen & Gefeller, Epidemiology 2002

Stata

SEER Stat

R, Holleczek, Gondos & Brenner, Meth Inform Med 2009)

Page 3: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Period approaches - brief history (2)

• Extensions

Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004)

Model based period analysis

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

(Brenner & Hakulinen AJE 2006, CEBP 2007 etc)

• Increasing application

including EUROCARE, SEER etc.

Page 4: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Principle of period versus cohort approaches

Cohort

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Period

Complete

Page 5: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Example of period versus cohort approaches

ACCIS Project, Childhood Cancer Survival in Europe

period

cohort

period

cohort

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Brenner et al, Ann Oncol 2007

Page 6: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Emprirical evaluation of period versus cohort approaches

Observed

Cohort

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Observed

Period

Page 7: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Emprirical evaluation of period versus cohort analysis (Finland 1983-87)

Cohort

Period

Observed

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Brenner & Hakulinen, JCO 2002

PeriodCohort

Observed

Page 8: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Emprirical evaluation of period versus cohort analysis (Finland 1963-97)

Period Cohort

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Brenner & Hakulinen, AJE 2002

Period Cohort

Page 9: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1997

1998

1999

2000

Follow-up

Dx

Beyond standard period analysis

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Page 10: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

,

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1997

1998

1999

2000

Follow-up

Dx

Model-based period analysis

=> precision, trends, tests, covariates, projections

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Brenner & Hakulinen, AJE 2006

Page 11: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Example for projections: multiple myeloma, USA

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Page 12: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Example for projections: multiple myeloma, USA

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Pulte et al, Haematologica 2009

Page 13: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Some practical issues: Cohort versus period modeling ?

DX 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Follow-up

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Brenner & Hakulinen IJC 2007: Period modeling mostly superior

Page 14: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Some practical issues: analyses of time trends

Avoid combinations of cohort and period analyses

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Page 15: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Some practical issues: analyses of time trends

Show period trends instead

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Page 16: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

What to do if incidence is less up-to-date than mortality follow-up?

„Truncated period analysis“ ?

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Page 17: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

What to do if incidence is less up-to-date than mortality follow-up?

Less up-to-date period analysis ?

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Page 18: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

What to do if incidence is less up-to-date than mortality follow-up?

Hybrid analysis !

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Brenner & Rachet EJC 2004, Brenner & Hakulinen, EJC 2007

Page 19: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Full

Period

estimate

Some practical issues:

Which study population to describe for period analyses („Table 1“)?

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Full

Restricted

Page 20: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Length offollow-up

Length of period

2-year period 5-year period 10-year period

5-year RS Full Full Full

Some further practical issues:

Which study population to describe for period analyses („Table 1“)?

Empirical evaluation, Finnish Cancer Registry, Summary results

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

5-year RS Full Full Full

10-year RS Full Full Restricted. Full Restricted

15-year RS Full

20-year RS Full

Jansen, Hakulinen & Brenner, Br J Cancer 2013

Page 21: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Full

Period

estimate

Some practical issues (yet to be clarified):

Which DCO proportions are relevant for period analysis?

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Full

Restricted

Page 22: Cohort and Period Approaches...Hybrid analysis (Brenner & Rachet, Eur J Cancer 2004) Model based period analysis 23.1.2014 Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center (Brenner &

Hermann Brenner, German Cancer Research Center23.1.2014

Thank you for your attention!


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