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By the end of this instruction, you should be able to...
List each damming type, and describe the relative roles of synoptic scale forcing & diabatic processes in each.
Describe the major influencing processes of damming, both at the surface and aloft, & explain their effects.
Discern between damming and lookalike (non-damming) events.
Why Study Cold Air Damming?
It happens often & affects a wide area
Models don’t diagnose/forecast it well… even mesoscale models have trouble
Occurrence has major implications on cloud cover, temps, precip type, etc.
Not all ridges down the East Coast are “damming”!
I live in Juneau. What do I care? Cold air damming occurs often east of the
Rockies, too… not just the Appalachians
Many of the processes affecting damming are noted in other phenomena as well
The need for a thorough understanding of contributing processes is applicable to any forecast problem
An event-specific forecast process can be useful for many forecast problems
You aren’t glued to your current station!
Forecast Challenges of the Mid-Atlantic & Southeast U.S. ...
Often at southern extent of cold air
Highest mountains in the Appalachians
Gulf Stream & Atlantic in close proximity
Extensive Piedmont & Coastal Plain
The Damming Region (DR)
Area under greatest consideration for “spectrum”
Damming dome deepest
Is by no means the only area affected!
Spectrum of Cold Air Damming and Lookalikes...
…is a method of classifying events based on processes
…was created to help forecasters identify the very different types of damming events
…helps with coordination
…will continue to be adjusted and improved as more is learned
Froude Number
H = height of mtn barrierU = component of mean wind orthogonal to mtns = mean value through stable layerh = height of stable layer
= (Brunt-Vaisala frequency)
Spectrum is a continuum
All produce same weather conditions
Lookalikes=> UNBLOCKED FLOW
Damming=> BLOCKED FLOW
Five types: •3 damming •2 lookalikes
“Classical” Cold Air Damming
Strong forcing from synoptic-scale features
Diabatic processes unnecessary to initiate, but can strengthen
Note position and strength of sfc high
Surface Processes of Classical Cold Air
Damming “Parent” high is cold air
source
E to NE flow is blocked & deflected southward
Adiabatic cooling=> hydrostatic pressure rise=> ageostrophic response
CAA & low level stability in DR are enhanced
• Diabatic processes become more important ...
• Synoptic-scale forcing becomes less important
However, in the non-classical damming types…
Hybrid Damming Synoptic-scale forcing &
diabatic processes play nearly equal roles
Parent high may be: In good position but weak Progressive (limited CAA)
Strong signatures aloft often lacking
Diabatic processes enhance low-level stability
In Situ Damming Diabatic processes
necessary
Little or no CAA initially; cool dry air is deposited
Sfc high is unfavorably located
Precip into this pre-existing dry, stable air instigates damming
In Situ Damming Event:
6-7 Jan 1995 Temperatures were in
the lower 60s in Eastern NC & lower 30s in Central NC
Boundaries can be focus for severe weather (more later)
Millions of dollars in damage in NC alone; >120 kt gust at GSB
A Brief Look at the “Lookalikes” Weather conditions mimic
cold air damming
Differs from damming… Flow is NOT blocked
Not connected to a parent high
Lacks signatures above the boundary layer
Two types: Cool air pooling & upslope
Cool Air Pooling Pre-existing dry air mass
not connected to a parent high
No CAA into cool pool
Precipitation induces mesoscale high
Mountains not required
CAD events frequently turn into cool air pooling!
Upslope Flow
Adiabatic lift generates considerable cloudiness & cooler temperatures
Resulting surface meso-high has no connection to or support by a parent high
Low-levels too unstable for damming
00Z 10/14/95
Boundary Layer
Surface
To recap the damming types… Classical = support & forcing from synoptic-
scale features, surface & aloft; diabatic processes not needed
Hybrid = support & forcing from both synoptic-scale features & diabatic processes
In Situ = instigated by diabatic processes with little or no support from synoptic-scale features
Processes Aloft Contributing to Cold Air Damming
Can effect near-surface environment significantly
Notable mainly in classical and sometimes hybrid CAD
Contributing processes evident at:850 mb500 mb300-250 mb
CAD Processes & Signatures: 850 mb
Generates clouds & precip for increased stability
Anticyclone off SE U.S. coast
Strengthens inversion
Enhances CAD:
Light-moderate warm moist flow atop cold dome
CAD Processes & Signatures: 500 mb
Allows surface ridge to be unimpeded
by cyclogenesis
Split-flow regime
Confluent flow over NE U.S. anchors & strengthens high
Trough or low over Ern Canada
Trough or low in Srn Plains
Ageostrophic circulation…
CAD Processes & Signatures: 300 mb
Helps drive sfc cold air southward
Jet entrance region is over NE U.S.
Produces subsidence atop sfc high
Cold Air Damming Erosion(or, When is this “dam” thing gonna end??)
One of the most difficult aspects of CAD, not captured well by models
Incorporate model biases in forecast process (e.g. NGM moves parent highs offshore too quickly)
Rules of thumb: Strong events typically require strong CFP to scour
out wedge (esp. Oct-Mar)
Weak events with only low cloud cover are susceptible to erosion by insolation & mixing from above
Erosion & Breakdown: A Few Questions to Ask
Is low level CAA ending? (e.g. parent high moving offshore; being “pinched off”)
Are surface winds shifting out of damming configuration?
Is upper level support waning?
Is precipitation ending (influence of diabiatic processes diminishing)?
Has dry air advection ended?
Could this event end as cool air pooling?
Cold Air Damming:Forecast Operations
Tools for identifying an event & diagnosing the influencing processes
• Spectrum of Damming and Lookalike Events• Glossary of Terms For CAD & Lookalikes• Special AWIPS procedures• Forecast Methodology for CAD
Tools for determining CAD onset and erosion
• Models (e.g. Eta, MASS, MM5) (longer term)• Close monitoring of sfc/BL/UA features• CAD Erosion Guidelines (in progress)• Conceptual models
“Forecast Methodology for CAD” Created to facilitate event identification and
the forecast process
Adapted for online use w/ MASS model (but is also in questionnaire format)
Three parts: Pre-Development (Is the stage set?) Development (assessment/ID; is flow blocked?) Breakdown & Erosion (identify possible
mechanisms of wedge erosion)
“Pre-Development”
Links to pertinent MASS & Eta model fields
Addresses: Sfc high initial
position, strength & source
Sfc temps/dewpoints Availability of dry air,
& dry air ridge (DAR) development
“Development”
Links to MASS, NGM, &
Eta fields
Addresses: Low level CAA
Upper level support (850/500/300 mb)
Low level stability
“Breakdown & Erosion” In “yes/no” questionnaire
format
Addresses: Cessation of diabatic
processes, low level CAA, upper level support, sfc high support
Presence of thermal-moisture boundaries (TMBs)
Thermal-Moisture Boundaries(aka wedge fronts, piedmont fronts)
Delineate the southern and eastern edges of the cold dome
Temp differences across TMB are often 20F or greater
Coastal front can “jump” inland into TMB
Can act as a focus for severe weather
Coastal Fronts Development favored by:
Very cold air over warm Gulf Stream Pre-existing synoptic frontal boundary Differential heating Convergence zone
Onshore movement indicated by: Offshore NE winds go SE (check buoy obs) Tight thermal gradient pushing westward Pressure falls & temp/dewpoint rises just inland
Coastal Fronts Factors affecting inland movement or
“jump”: Strength of wedge Depth of cold dome on edges Offshore high pressure with sufficiently strong
southeasterly flow orthogonal to front Strong/strengthening TMB + weakening coastal
front
Will not likely move much farther west than Raleigh/Burlington, NC
Severe Weather Along a TMB Strong vertical shear along TMB enhances
severe threat
Type of damming can determine degree of threat Severe wx more likely with in situ damming
Cold front aloft (CFA) & accompanying dry slot can enhance severe downdrafts
Check presence of low level jet streak
To wrap it up... CAD mustn’t be oversimplified... the relative roles
of various processes differ in each event
Forecasters must understand the supporting processes of each event & recognize the signatures
Forecast methodologies targeting particular weather problems (e.g. landfalling TCs, heavy snow QPF) can make the entire forecast process easier and more efficient
CAD boundaries can spawn severe weather