Collapse and Existential Risk
Haydn Belfield
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Modelling Societal Collapse Workshop February 2018 – with Prof. Jared Diamond
• Can we model and predict collapse?
• No: ‘Wild’ systems are high in ‘interference’ and ‘noise’
• Yes: similar factors, enough case-studies
• How to avoid cherry-picking
• Endogenous vs exogenous
• Decentralisation vs collapse
• Historical vs contemporary
Avin, S., Wintle. B., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., Sutherland, W., Rees, M. (2018). Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks. Futures.
Avin, S., Wintle. B., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., Sutherland, W., Rees, M. (2018). Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks. Futures.
Avin, S., Wintle. B., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., Sutherland, W., Rees, M. (2018). Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks. Futures.
Does Collapse Matter?
• Is survival likely?
• Is recovery likely?
• Is a fast recovery likely?
• Are multiple recoveries likely?
Why Collapse Matters in the Long-Run
Why Collapse Matters in the Long-Run