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Ecological lessons in survival'l j ' . 'qa

t y&II)By Jared Diamond

ocieties normally endure minor rises and falls of fortune,even conquest by a neighbor, without undergoing a dras­tic change in total population or social complexity. But

some societies have truly collapsed: their populations crashedand their complex social and economic organizations brokeapart. Might such a fate befall our own society? Will touristssomeday stare mystified at the rusting hulks of New York City' sskyscrapers, much as we stare today at the overgrown ruinsof Mayan cities?

Many collapses of the past appear to have been triggered,at least in part, by ecological problems: people inadvertentlydestroyed their environmental resources [see "Maya: A Clas­ 4itsic Case, "opposite page]. But societies are not doomed to col­lapse because of environmental damage. Some societies havecoped with their problems, whereas others have not [see "Pathsto Success," page 40]. But I know of no case in which a soci­ety's collapse can be attributed simply to environmental dam­age; there are always complicating factors. Among them areclimate change, the role of neighbors (who can be friendly orhostile), and, most important, the ways people respond to theirenvironmental problems.

In some respects we face greater risks than past societiesdid. Our technology (and its unintended destructive eRects) ispotent; our economy is global (so that now a collapse even inSomalia affects the United States and Europe); millions (and,soon, billions) of us depend on modern medicine for survival;and our population is much larger. No place is truly immune I 4*+

from environmental damage [see "Montana; Trouble in Par­e

P '4

adise," page 42], And for the first time in history, we face therisk of a global decline. Yet some of the same new conditions­technology, globalization, modern medicine — can help us findsolutions to our problems. ~R

Because we are the cause of most of our own environmen­tal problems, we can choose to solve them. And we enjoy an Stela, or commemorative pillar, honoring Waxaklahun Ubah

unprecedented opportunity to learn quickly from develop­ K'awiil, who ruled the Mayan city of Copen from A.o. 695 until

ments everywhere in the world today, and from what has un­ 738. Centered in a fertile valley, the kingdom was one of many

folded in times past.that rapidly declined during the ninth century. One cause wasdeforestation and erosion of the surrounding hills.

38 N AT U I LAI. PII ITo ILY P p n l ? IMS

Maya: A Classic Case

n aiicient civilization is iilnrc conlmonly i lu t r i ents. Cul t ivation of the h i l lsides apparentlyassociated xvith the word "collapse" than pro ved worthwhile for only about a century. Ero­tllat ot thc Maya of Central Aiuerica. In si o n a lso carried the poorer soils from thc slopes

the ninth century A.li., thc Mayan dovhn in to the val ley, conlpronus­pnplll;ltloii I 'll tlolil .lt least 5 Inil — ® 4n c len ing thc bcttcr a g r i cu ltural zones.lion pcopl« to a tenth tlrat size or MaYa area - Fur thcr inorc , because forests playleSS. At sabolit 'the S'lllle tl llie 1 11 ' a, ".;,' ' V a» laj o r ro l e in water recyclin, t hc

t:Ut.F OFsoiuc of thc niost vibrant centers of y py i c( ) massive defo r estation niay have al­M;iy;ui settlement, there's;I sudl1e» so con tTib li t eel to <11'ollght.dearth ot inscriptions featuring the ' -' . ~"' . ,' CARl HBfsl)'n:uncs of kinie or dates eitpressed : . '~ ". ''~ . SEA Q t its he i ght, in the ninth ceil­

v

in thc l .n i ig Co»li t c ; l lendal, slg- '-.Il ,' : - gFLiZE C Xt u ry A.l i . , C o pan's pclpula­v

nalin<r thc disintc<„r;ltion of conl - -~ :... . ' ..i y'; I - t ion reac hed about 27,000; the lastplex political and cultural institu- • . .t4 ' ~ar b ig bui ld i ngs were erected arouiidt ions. Many ci t ies werc entirel y ' ' ' " ' g HoNDl JR45 t y 00. The subsequent decline inabaiido»cd and fell iiito ruin; then, " " ' I 'v,M ' >.~ .' 'r e ' PO P u la t inn w a s n n t ins t a i i ta­

(XHi Nover rown w i th t rees. they re - - sa . neoos — as iate as A.n. 95tl it wasn laincd virtlially unknown to the ~ ELS4"V 4DOR X , st il l abo u t 1 5 ,000 — but i t w a s

milesoil tall le asvorld tor a thousiulll years. st ead ily dwind l i ngr. By about 1250

Throu<yhout the sn-called Classic period ot fvlay;ul the valley was deserted.civilization, fioii i ilbout A.D. 250 to ')00, Mayan sn- Five s t n lnds, or inajor factors, contributin<r to thecicty rcinaincd politically divided intn snlall king- dow n f al l nf Cop.in can bc tentatively identified. Thednnis. I'x pifymgr the Mayan collapse was a kingdoiil fi rst str;u id was sin iply that populationwhose ruins nn)v li« in western Honduras, at a site gr row th was o u t s t r i pp in<r theknnwvli;is ( npan. Tile best agl lcultlll:il Iand in th e available r esources. The secondkingdoin, the tertile alluvial soil ofa river valley, cov- . strand, al r e ady nientioned,crcd o»ly tcn square miles. Beginning in the fift h conipoun l lln gr th'lt nlls­century A.l>., the population of thc valley rose -.~ $ " ) :t n latch, w a s thc arrayrapidly, a»d by A.ll. (>50 people had begun t o of iiegative e f fects thato ccupy and farin th» surroundingr hillsides . w erc brought on b yArchacolngvical evidence indicates that the hill - deforestatio n ands ides werc initially forested and less fertil» than h il lside erosi o n .the river valley. Input sonii the forests werc T he th i rdcut down, »lostly tnr tuel, lcaviii<r the strand w assteep slopes open to soil erosion andplnbably also 'tn tlic Ic'lchiiig of

Temple l at Tikal, one ofthe largest Mayan centers.Contributing to the collapseof Tikal was a majordrought that beganabout z.o. 760.

. <a' ar ash+-1

Maya: A Classic Caseincre;ised warfare, as n»ighboring kingdoi»s fouglit The fifth strand was a failure of th» Mayan kings

<>v»r their dimiiiishing resources. I3ri»ging niattcrs to and nobles to address probl»»is withiii their con­

a hc.id was a fourth straiid: climate change. The worst trol. The att»ntio» of the l»ad»rs was evidently fo­

drouirht to strike the rcirioii i» 7,()flo years bcga» cused OII enriching thcillselves, waging wars, erect­

about A.lz 760 a»d peaked about H(K). Hy then then.. illg 11IOIiulll»III's, co»lp»t l l lg w i t l l » ; i c l l 0' t l iel',; l l ld

w»re»o u»occupied favorable laiids to svhich people extracting enough food and other resources froi»

could»iov» to save th»inselvcs. The ensuing d»cline the peasants to support tliose activiti»s. Like i»ost

in the Mayan population I»ust have come about part­ leaders throughout hui»an history, the Mayan kiiiirs

ly from starvation and waitarc, as well as fro»i a fall and nobles did not heed long-tern> problems, if tliey

in thc birthrate and in the survival rate of children. noticed them at all.

Paths to Success

ail»res ofTer niany lessons, but so do success­ tire territory, all;ire keenly aware that they are at:

es. Many societies have survived in di f i cul t fected by developi»cuts cverywh»re else, and al]

environmc»ts for thousands of years. Their share a se»sc of coninion identity and co»ii»o» in­

stories sugirest two contrasti»g approaches to solv­ terests. Even the citizens of large, industrialized so­

ing environmental problems: bottom-up and top­ cieties can often find bottona-up resource i»anagc­

down. Thr»e exaniplcs of societics that successful­ Inent cfTective within the neighborhoods where

ly addressed cnvironnieiital issues by adopting one they live or work.ot those two approaches are highland New (*uinea, In a large, ce»trally organized society, such as one

Tikopia Island in the south Pacific, and preniodcrn that embraces an entire archipelago, the general

Japan [see It<op oII opposite thI<tej. population may not be familiar with what is going

In general, sniall societies — such as a soci»ty oc­ on throughout the territory. A central ruler, how­

cupying a si»all island — can adopt a bottoni-up ap­ ever, may etTcctively exercise thc necessary resource

proach. All the inhabitants are familiar with the en­ nianag<..ment, A king who wishes merely to see hisdescendants enjoy his doinain in perpetuity has goodreason to be aware of the need to l imi t environ­mental dai»age. He may order his subjects to inan­agc resources in ways that favor hi i»selt and l i isheirs bu t in the long run, those practices may begood for his subjects as well. ()f course, such a top­down approach is also familiar to those of us wholive in niodcrn, developed countries (for "k ing,"r»ad "gover»m»iit").

I ~ ~ ~ I ~~ ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 1 I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1

ne outstanding exanipl» of the bot toni-upapproach developed in New Guinea. IIccause

New Guinea's steep, mountainous interior is sorugged, Europeans who explor»d th» island begin­ning in the sixteenth century were confin»d to itscoast and lowland rivers. They assunaed the interi­or was entirely forested and uiiii ihabited.

It thcrcfore ca»ie as a shock wh<.n thc first over­fiights, in the 1930s, revealed a landscape trans­

Stool used for coconut shredding is carved on the South tor»ied by millions of farm»rs previously unk»ownPacific island of Tikopia. 8y adjusting their choices of land to the outside world. N»w Gui»»a now appears toand sea resources and controlling population growth,

h.iv» beeii one of th<. lii»it»d nui»ber ot ind»p»n­people have survived on the 1.8-square-mile island foralmost 3,000 years. d»»t ce»t»rs of plant doi»»sticatioii in th» world.

40 r<r<T<:I<a<. <»s I o«v April 2005

Voyage of EngagementAgriculture h;is beeii goiiig o» there for 7,000 years.

C)v»r that ti i»c, through tr ial and error, Ncsv By Vanda VitaliC'uincans worked out a whole suite of tcchniqucs

to»iai»t;ii» soil fertility, including crop rotation. ven before Jared Diamond completed the manuscript forThey observed the conseque»ces of deforestation his latest book, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail orand, in response, dcvclopcd thc practice of plant­ Succeed, I met with him and several of my colleagues at theing and cultivatiiig trees for food and for t i i»ber. Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County to explore theThe population size was kept in check through war­ idea of creating an exhibition that would feature some of the keytare. contraception, abnrtinn, and nthcr practices. results from his research. But how were we to take some of the

Aiiother exaniple of bottoi»-up control coines ideas from a 500-plus-page book and create an engaging experi­from the Tiknpia Islanders, who inhabit an isolat­ ence for our visitors?ed tloplcal island iii tlic southwester il I aciflc C)cean. Museums typically tell stories through their collections. TheOnly I.B square miles in area, the island is home to focus of this exhibition, however, was to be on ideas, particularlyabout 1,200 people. Tikopians, ton, have regulated

the relation between society and its environment, which objectstheir»u»ibers through a variety of practices ex­

and specimens might be able to convey only indirectly. We de­plicitly to pr»v»nt thc island from becoining over­

cided to bring our collections to life amid rich and diverse set­populated and to prevent a faniily tror» having morechildren than th» tanuly's land could support. In ad­

tings — the temples of the ancient Maya, for instance, or a

ditioii, they have been adjustin<g their use of re­ seventeenth-century Japanese interior — to which we would add

sources frnni the time of the island's first settlement, provocative sound and video presentations and an original series

nearly 3,000 years ago. Most dramatically, they of giant-size cartoons. An essential strategy for fulfilling our vision

made the»io»ie»tous decision, about A.)i. 1600, to was to assemble a team of highly skilled and experienced profes­

kill otI all thc pi<es on the island. Even though the sionals — museum curators, an architect-designer, a videographer,

pigs had become a luxury food tor the chiefs, the an interpretive specialist, and others — who could collectively in­

animals raided and rooted up gardens and compct­ vent a unique exhibition to serve our diverse audience.

«d with huma»s for food. As a scientific institution, a natural history museum has a responsi­bility to allow different voices to be heard and to enable visitors to

good exainple of successful top-down resource appreciate the complexities of debate, particularly on issues such asmanagement is Japan during the Tokugawa the environmental challenges we face today. When deciding on the

period (I('i03 — 1)167). In 1657 a fire ravaged the title for the exhibition — "Collapse?" — we used a question mark tocapital city, Edo. The dentand for timber to rebuild indicate the fluidity of future possibilities and consequences.the city served as a wake-up call tn the rulers, because Navigating through the exhibit, which opens May 1, visitors willby then, niost of Japan's ority»al forests had been cut voyage through time and around the globe. The journey starts withdown. During th» next two centuries, under the lead­ a multimedia exposition of contemporary environmentalership of successive shoguns, Japan gradually achieved situations, followed by a look at issues affecting modern-day Mon­

a stable population tana. We introduce the principal factors Diamond associates with so­'. RUSSIA I' and ii io i 'c sustanl­ cial collapse, then invite our visitors to proceed back in time to con­

able rates ofr»source sider the decline of the ancient Mayan civilization and the survival ofconsumption. Partof th» solution was

Japan during the Tokugawa period (1603-1867). Returning to thepresent, visitors see the challenges of climate, fire, and population

to promote t rade: JAPANf or food w i th t h e growth that now confront the continent of Australia.

7A inu p e ople o n The final room is designed especially for our southern California

thc ilni tllcl ii islaild audience. Water (both too little of it, and too much!), air quality,

„' PHILIPPINES urban sprawl and transportation management, the destruction of0 1,0 00 of Hokkaido (thus

miles shifting some po­ endangered habitats, terrorism, dwindling energy supplies, and the

/n «< te»tial problc»rs of shifting patterns of world trade will be among the issues we explore.New Guinea resource depletion This final stage, then, will serve both as a forum for the ongoing de­

r . Eq</a(or-­outside what was bate about our relation with the environment and, potentially, as a

* I ~~~ Tike / 8 tll<.'ii J;ip;iii prop»r), means to our long-term survival.

p-~( 0 / '< 13y 17(M) thc shn­) gillls aiitl ill»it' illl­ Vanda Vitali is vice president of public programs at the Natural History

AUSTRALIA -,d»rlords harl i»sti­ Museum of Los Angeles Couniy.

/ip«/ 2005 Y AT U <<. A I n I s I <) K Y 41

Paths to Success

tuted ari elaborate systen) <)t woodland nlanagc­ ']sh »)el tlilst fl()»1 Asia,,')lid yol.i»g soils — all fac­

n]ent, and Japa» gradually developed th» idea ot tors th;it proii lote rapid rc<»rowth of trees. 1» svhat

plantation forestry: trc<.s canle to be regarded as a vv;Is;I» cia of pc<ice a»(t socl;11 strlbllit'y, both theslow-growir]g crop. Japan was tavoiscd it> this by elite;]lid thc I»;]sscs in Japan rccog»ized their long»­the COi»)tl VrS high I'alnf ill, high f ; l l lout Of VOIC;i»IC terr» stake it> preserving their forests.

Montana: Trouble in Paradise

coplc have roamed Montana for at least oil resoilrce extr;lction. Hunt ing a»d f ishi»g» h;lve1 )3,()()0 years. 13cforc Europear]s entered the been trarlsfori»ed froni subsistence activi t ies toNew World, th» region svas thc exclusive do­ reer«ational ones; thc fur trade is exti»ct; and nlin­

i»ain ot Native American hunter-gatherers. The i »g, lo<»<»in<»,;u]d ag»riculturc arc dccl ini i ig in in i­econoniy began to chailge with the arrival ot thc portance. The <»rowth sectors of Montana's ccon­»lot») tair) mcn" f u r t r appcrs and traders from ol»v nosvld'lys Iue tourisl», rccrcatio», rctiren)ent

Ca]]ada and the United States, wrho extracted large­ living, and he]lith care.ly unprocessed natural resources from the bnd forexport. 1)uring the next ecorlomic phase, bc< innin<„ h at llew cnlph;isis o» a scI'vlcc ecol lo» ly » o t ­

in the 1860S, agricultural products were;Idded to the withstar]ding, Montana's environinciltal prob­exports, and resource. extraction shift<.d to 1»ined lenls include Ilh»ost. all the ones tl'I<it h')ve ii»der­i»inerals (especially copper and gold) aiid lu»iber. nlincd preir]dustrial soci«ties in the p;ist aild that con­

I» spite of the long history (and prchistory) ofhu­ tinue to threate» societies evcryv herc in thc future.nian occupation, i i lost people — r)ot without rea­ ( )»c pfoblc»1 Is 'toxic was'tc. Co»ceril ls nlo i» l t­son associate Mont.lna with pristine rlatural beau­ ing about runofF tro») fertilizer, nwnurc, thc cori­ty. Thc federal govcrni»cnt owns more than on@­ tents of septic tank», and herbicidcs. 13ut by far thefourth of the land wi thin the state boundaries, biggest toxic-waste issue is posed by the r<siducsi»ostly as national forests. Moreover, th» founda­ froiil »letal nuning and sinclti»g. Waste rock andtio»s of Mo»tana's econon)y are ever less dependent taili])gs co»raining ;uscll ic, cad»lit»», copper, ; l l lcl

zinc get into grou»dwater, rivers, and soil. Wh(..ndisturbed by nuning and proccssi»g», Moi) ta»a oresalso yield sulfuric acid, because they are rich in ironsulfide. There arc sonic ')0,000 aba»doncd r»ines inthc state, most of which have no surviving own­ers — or none wealthy enough to clean then) up.

A second issue is deforestation. Thc housing» boo»ithat follosved the Second World War, and the resul­tant surge in dcrnand for I(»libel; c'.Irised tii»bcr salestro»i land in national forests to peak in about 1972.Lo~<»<»]r)g svas done by cle;u — cllttlng, 'I »lcthod t ll<lt Is

etficie»t tor loggers and also nlaxirilizes futur« timberyields. 13ut clear-cutting clii»inatcs shade, causing ar ise in stream tenlp(.ratures that is liarmfii l to f i shspawning and, ultinlately, to their survival. '1"hc lossof shade also leads to a quick puLsc of snow»)elt i» thespring, instead ot a <»radual release of 1»cltsvatcr thatcan be used for irrig]tior) throiighout the sui»incr.

Headwaters of Daisy Creek, southern Montana, near thenow-abandoned McLaren Mine. The creek lacks the aquatic

life typical of most mountain streams, because mine tailingshave polluted the creek with dissolved metals and acids.

42 N r <rI UI<.A< I I IST<<IIY Ap r i l 2005

Bitterroot River Valley, in southwestern Montana (shown here problcnis iri Montana includ» nitrogen exhaustiori,! ooking south from Hamilton), is the fastest-growing region of erosion, and salinization — the accumulation of saltthe state. The valley population is increasing at 4 percent a in soil and groundwater. And for those who thinkyear, largely because of an influx of wealthy retirees from out of Montana as pristine wilderness, it coincs as aof state. Even though rising land prices and taxes createh ousing problems for many loca! residents, the subdivision shock that even here, sonic areas suffer se;isonall yand development of farmland is virtually unrestricted because from poor air quality. Worst of all is the city of Mis­of traditional opposition to gover nment regulation. soula, whose problems stem from a combination of

vehicle ernissiorls, wood-burning stoves in t.hc win­It svas thc niost visible downside of clear-cutting, ter, and forest tires and lo<rging in thc summer.

hov,ever, that sparked debate: clear-cut hi l lsides Finally, Montana, like most other regions, nlustlook ugly. A public outcry lcd to changes in log­ contront the twirl problems affecting species diver­ging policy afl<cting riational forest. As for private sity: the introduction ot harmful nonnative speciesforests, the niair) prntectioil they nlay enjoy is that and the loss of valuable native ones. F' or exarrr> leprcscrvin<r the torcstcd landscape for flrturc I'c'll­ northern pike, illegally introduced into snnic west­cstate devclopmerlt appears niore profitable. ern Montana lakes and rivers, have virtually eliini­

In recent years, forest tires have increased in in­ nated the populations of bull trout and cutthroattensity and extent in some kinds of forest. In part the trout on which thc northerrls prey.increase is a result of climate change (a trend towardhot, dry surnrncrs), and in part it is traceablc to hu­ 11 the envirnnrllental problenls in this familiarman factors [see also "F'ire Dorr>n ( Jnder," lry D<rrr Drol­ A litany could be addressed through a combina­lefte, page 44]. Onc hunlan tactor is logging, which trnrl of bnttorll — up, grassroots orgallizatron arid 'top­ofterl turns a forest into what looks — and acts — like down, governil ient regulation. I ro i i ically, Mon­a huge pile of kindling. Another factor is the policy Llilarls are bcgllll l lng 'to Icalizc that two of I'hell il l ostor fire suppression aiiopted by the U.S. Forest Ser­ cherished attitudes are i» direct opposition: a fiercevice in thc first dccadc of the twentieth century. By belief in individual rights, often expressed in strnrlgthe 1<)80s, people began to realize that the policy it­ resistance to any governrllent reglrlation, and prideself was contributing tn the buildup of fuel in the in their quality of life. They arc corning tn s<.« thattorm of deadwood and undergrowth. by perniitting unrestricted laird use, which eiicour­

ages the influx of rlcw residents, their own opposi­hat about water, soil, and air. Both well wa­ t ion to governinent regulatioil could bccornc re­ter trnm undergrouri<i aquifers and irriga­ sponsible for the turther degradation of their beau­

riori water froin ditches fcd by mountain streams, tifill natural surrnundint~.lak .,;akes, and rivers nlust serve an increasing number otusers. At the same t ime, as a result ot c l i inale '(7<ese excerprs i< ere ed»pi<ril fr<><rr /ared l)i<r»r<>»ds boi>k

ch;ulgc M o r i talla Is bee<'>Illlllg warnrer arid drlel­ Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, prib­

the amount nf avail;lbl«water is decreasing, 'anil lislred by 1:ikr»g Pe«g><<<<<.

April 2005 v<<ru<<SL iris r<>r<> 43