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Collapse of the Us Dollar

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1 Collapse of the U.S. Dollar system? Prepared by :- Musbri Mohamed DIL; ADIL ( ITM ) Pursuing MBL ( UKM )
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Collapse of the U.S. Dollar system?

Prepared by :-

Musbri MohamedDIL; ADIL ( ITM )Pursuing MBL ( UKM )

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The United States, despite recentproblems, is still the strongestgrowth locomotive for the worldeconomy, the pillar of the globalsystem .

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What if we were to discoverthat, instead of being thepillar, that the United States

was, in fact, the heart of adysfunctional economicsystem, which is spreadinginstability, unemployment,and depression globally?

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The US position in the worldsince 1945, and especiallysince 1971, has rested on twopillars, however : Thesuperiority of the US military

over all, and, the role of thedollar as world reservecurrency.

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The world has entered a new, highlydangerous phase since the collapse of the US

stock market bubble in 2001. 

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How the Dollar System works

After 1945, the US emerged from war with the world's goldreserves, the largest industrial base, and a surplus of dollars backedby gold. In the 1950's into the 1960's Cold War, the US could afford

to be generous to key allies such as Germany and Japan, to allow theeconomies of Asia and Western Europe to flourish as a counter tocommunism. By opening the US to imports from Japan and WestGermany, a stability was reached. More importantly, from pure USself-interest, a tight trade area was built which worked also to theadvantage of the US. That held until the late 1960's, when the costlyVietnam war led to a drain of US gold reserves. By 1968 the drain

had reached crisis levels, as foreign central banks holding dollarsfeared the US deficits would make their dollars worthless, andpreferred real gold instead.

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In August 1971, Nixon finally broke the Bretton Woods agreement,and refused to redeem dollars for gold. He had not enough gold togive. That turn opened a most remarkable phase of world economichistory. After 1971 the dollar was fixed not to an ounce of gold,something measurable. It was fixed only to the printing press of theTreasury and Federal Reserve. The dollar became a political currency

—do you have "confidence" in the US as the defender of the FreeWorld? At first Washington did not appreciate what a weapon it hadcreated after it broke from gold. It acted out of necessity, as its goldreserves had got dangerously low. It used its role as the pillar ofNATO and free world security to demand allies continue to accept itsdollars as before. Currencies floated up and down against the dollar.Financial markets were slowly deregulated. Controls were lifted.

Offshore banking was allowed, with unregulated hedge funds andfinancial derivatives. All these changes originated from Washington,in coordination with New York banks.

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In the years between 1945 and 1965, total supply of dollarsgrew a total of only some 55%. Those were the goldenyears of low inflation and stable growth. After Nixon'sbreak with gold, dollars expanded by more than 2,000%

between 1970 and 2001! 

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The question is if the Dollar System is reaching its real limits? TheDollar System for the past 30 years has been built on growingdollar debt. What if the rest of the world decides it no longerwants to give its savings to the US Treasury to finance its deficitsor its wars? What if China decides that it should diversify its riskby buying Euro debt? Or Japan or Russia? That day may come

sooner than we think. In addition to colossal debts to the rest ofthe world, the US internal debt burdens have reached alarminglevels in the past three decades, especially the past decade. Thetotal US debt—public and private—has more than doubled since1995. It is now officially over $34 trillion.

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The fundamental reason for the Iraq war, beyond agendas ofRichard Perle or other hawks, is hence, strategic in view. USeconomic hegemony in this distorted Dollar System increasinglydepends on a rising rate of support from the rest of the world tosustain US debt levels. Like the old Sorcerers' Apprentice. But thepoint is past where this can be gotten easily. That is the real

significance of the US shift to unilateralism and military threats asforeign policy. Europe can no longer be given a piece of the ThirdWorld debt pie as in the 1980's. Japan has to cough up even more,as does China now. Even ordinary Americans have to give up theirpension promises. If the Dollar System is to remain hegemonic, itmust find major new sources of support. That spells likely

destabilization and wars for the rest of the world. 

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Could it be that in this context, some long-term thinkers in Washington and elsewherehave devised a strategy of establishing USmilitary control of all strategic sources of oilfor the one potential power rival, Eurasia,from Brussels to Berlin to Moscow and

Beijing? The dollar vulnerability and debtproblems are well known in leading policycircles.

As Henry Kissinger once noted,

"Who controls the food supply controls the

 people; who controls the energy can control wholecontinents; who controls money can control theworld."

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The US portrays a false economy since its a 'super-power' as it claims. The world is heading for amassive financial recession and we need to takestock and not waste public funds foolishly.

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This economic fact is known to our leaders butunfortunately they are quite powerless to stem thetide.It is like trying to bail out of a yacht with a teaspoon.There are many initiatives that are viable,among them the gold dinar project but they faceopposition due to fear & ignorance rather thanfundamental reasons. At the heart of the gold dinarsystem is an intercountry settlement system usinggold as the peg. What is so hard to understandabout this system. Payments, realised andunrealised thus becomes a form of savings butpegged to a real item of value - gold. History showsthat gold has an intrinsic value that cannot be

wiped out - unlike treasury bills etc. In reality, theUS $ is more like the Japanese bananna notes thatwere once printed in large amounts in Malaya.

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Pretty scary to know that the currency of the world's biggest power is not

backed by gold reserve.

1) Will the day come when they print too much paper money like whatthe Japanese did towards the end of 2nd World War and all that moneybecame worthless?2)Why should China, Germany or Japan or for that matter any other

country trade with USA when they know they are not going to be paid?If I knew US treasury bonds can never be redeemed, I would rather tradewith anyone but them.3) Presumably USA is able to do all these nonsense and get away with itbecause at the moment they are the world's only Super Power with theiroverwhelming superiority in nuclear weapons. But with so manycountries holding so much worthless US treasury bonds, will their own

economies collapse? As the American says, "something's gotta give." Thebubble will surely burst one day.When it comes to a matter of survial. will the rest of the world gang upand go against the Big Bully?

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Players playing this game know that, in the longterm, currencies can't be stronger than thenational economies from which they derive.Consumption without production, imports

without exports, growth on credit -- these are allthings that can't last in this world. Ken Rogoff,the former chief economist of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) and a man who thinks asclearly as he speaks brashly, recently criticizedUS economic policy even as he seemed to bepraising it: Rogoff said the current boom in theUnited States is "the best economic recoverymoney can buy."

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Last century, the United States alreadysuffered from one deep economic crisisthat gradually spread to the rest of the

world. The Great Depression lasted 10years and brought massunemployment and starvation to theUnited States. The country's economicpower sank by one-third. The crisisvirus wrought havoc all over the West.

Six million people were unemployed inGermany when the economic fever wasat its peak.

Great Depression

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These days, the dollar is making a lot of peopleuncomfortable. One morning many dollar-owners will wake up and look at the facts aboutthe US economy without their rose-coloredglasses -- just as private investors woke up oneday and took an unflinching look at the NewEconomy, only to see companies whose market

value couldn't be justified by even the mostdramatic of profit increases. Some of therevenue forecasts that had been issued farexceeded the total value of the market. TheNasdaq presented the spectacle of a stockmarket whose added value increased by 1,000

percent in just a few years, when the nominalgrowth of the US economy during the sameperiod was only 25 percent.

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The markets are already rife with rumors thatAsia and the Middle East are exchanging theircurrency reserves for euros on a large scale in

an effort to spread their risk. British financialhistorian Niall Ferguson even believes thatthe dollar regime has already come to an end.His gloomy prediction is that "no monetarysystem lasts forever," noting the fate of thepound sterling. The euro, in Ferguson's view,is certainly capable of "giving the dollar a run

for its money as the international reservecurrency."

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Nostradamus prophecy the 3rd anti Christ is "Mabus" - aleader with "few commandos" and not a head of nation, butcome from outside Europe (1st anti Christ - Napoleon, 2ndanti Chirst - Hitler) that will start "3rd world war" and the"blood plague" (disease pandemics on global scale) are thelikely scenarios that will affect the world economically andpolitically. The likely period to take place is from 2007 -2012. So, it is just in front of us - terrorism and bird flu.So, don't worry about the greenback that will affect theworld!

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The US dollar is facing an imminent collapse and the global economy willsuffer a "catastrohpe" when it is rejected as the currency for trade, formerMalaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad said. Mahathir, whofamously ignored International Monetary Fund (IMF) advice and insteadchose to peg his country's ringgit to the US dollar during the Asian financialcrisis, said a standard gold currency was now the best alternative for worldtrade."But the catastrophe will come one day because even the mostpowerful country in the world cannot repay loans amounting to seventrillion dollars," Mahathir said.

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Dua orang penganalis yang telah merangkasemula maklumat bekalan wang (money supplydata) selepas ‘The Fed’ menghentikanpenerbitannya , membayangkan kejatuhan nilai

mata wang dollar akan memungkinkan kerajaanAmerika mewujudkan satu mata wang bergelar‘AMERO’ sebagai mata wang Amerika Syarikat

untuk menggantikan dollar. 

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Bob Chapman yang telah memengedarkan anggaran M3kepada 100,000 orang pelanggan risalahnya, TheInternational Forester.“Dunia ini menyimpan terlalu banyak wang dan hutang,”kata Chapman. “Congakan saya menunjukkan M3 terusmeninggi pada kadar 10 peratus buat masa ini.”

Chapman yakin ekonomi AS akan merudum menjelangFebruari. Dalam risalah beliau , beliau meramalkan TheFed akan mengekalkan kadar faedah pada 5.2 peratus.“The Fed sedang kalut sekarang,” kata Chapman.“Seandainya mereka naikkan kadar itu, pasaran hartanahakan jatuh, dan kalau mereka turunkan kadar, dollar pulayang akan lingkup.”

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Apakah serius kejatuhan dollar nanti?

“Orang di Amerika akan merasa pukulannya,” kata Chapman. “Dalam kejatuhan ekonomi yang sedang berlaku, Bush akan terusberhujah bahawa kita perlu menubuhkan satu North AmericanUnion (Pakatan Amerika Utara) untuk bersaing dengan euro.”“Dengan mewujudkan “AMERO” jelas Chapman, “ ia akandikemukakan kepada rakyat Amerika sebagai satu jalanpenyelesaian pentadbiran Bush untuk mengembalikan martabatdollar. Dalam proses mewujudkan Amero, pentadbiran Bush akanhanya menggugurkan dollar. “ 

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Apabila ditanya kenapa The Fed menghentikan penerbitandata M3, Kuever berkata, “Mungkin juga The Fed mahumenyorokkan berapa banyak kecairan yang disuntik ke dalampasaran, dan saya menjangka trenda itu akan berterusan,khususnya sejak ekonomi Amerika semakin menurun.”Kenapakah ini Penting?

“Garisan trenda dalam ‘carta M3 campur hutang ‘ yang sayalakar ternyata beralun,” kata Kuever. Sudah lama wujud satugarisan lurus sejak 2000. Untuk jangka panjang kitamencetuskan inflasi dan dolar sudah pun kehilangan hampir98 peratus nilai asalnya sejak 100 tahun yang lalu.”Sebagai seorang pelabur yang sudah bersara, Kuever amatprihatin dengan bajet yang membesar dan deficit

perdagangan.

“Dollar akan jatuh merudum.”

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The dollar is still the world's reserve currency, even though ithasn't deserved this status for a long time. The devaluation ofthe dollar can't be stopped -- it can only be deferred. Theresult could be a world economic crisis.


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