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Colliers Report - Aug2014

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Singapore | Investment AUGUST 201 4 Te Collective Sales Market - Boom or Bust? LEONARD TAY Associate Director, Research & Advisory CARISSA CHIN Assistant Manager, Research & Advisory During the 1990s, whenever a strata-titled development resolved to go the “collective sales 1 ” market or en-bloc route, it was like hitting the proverbial jackpot. Having a home or a place of business go en-bloc was almost always associated  with overnight riches of the exponential kind, wher e luck or fate or destiny suddenly seemed to smile upon ordinary folk through no eort on their part. And the windfall (or super- normal prots, or fortuitous gains), was indeed substantial in those days. Naturally so, as each revision of the Master Plan (in ve-year intervals) designated increases of plot ratios 2  across the board in Singapore and rezoned the land use of various sites islandwide. With the intensication of development potential and change in land use zoning for many sites, some 20 years ago, it was no wonder that developers were willing to pump in  what seemed like astronomical sums , many times the value of  what property owners would get if they were to sell individually on the open market. Tis was the case for many private residential developments in the Ce ntral Region of Singapore, such as those in t he Newton and Novena areas. However, much has changed since those heady days of striking the en-bloc lottery. Fast forward some 20 years and the collective sales market appears to have come to a standstill in 2014. Te Master Plan, from 2003 onwards, has not had the same magnitude of plot ratio increases as before, and therefore the type of premium devel opers were prepared to pay in the past has shrunk with time to more moderate levels. Many rounds of Government policy measures to curtail speculative real estate activity and to foster nancial prudence have also taken much of the froth out of the property markets and consequently the steam out of collective sales activities. Tese reasons combined with perceived challenges by owners in replacing sold en-bloc units with the proceeds from the collective sale, a pervasive tentative wait-and-see herd mentality, and lacklustre interest from developers who have otherwise turned towards the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme for their source of development land, have made for an anaemic collective sales market in 2014. Tus far, from January to July 2014, not one single real estate investment sale has succeeded in the collective sales route. Tis has raised questions of whether the way of collective sales has had its day, and is now no longer relevant in Singapore’ s real estate landscape. Is the collective sale still a useful and meaningful method of transaction in the mature and developed Singapore of today?
Transcript
Page 1: Colliers Report - Aug2014

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 17

Singapore | Investment

AUGUST 2014

Te Collective Sales

Market - Boom or Bust

LEONARD TAY Associate Director Research amp Advisory

CARISSA CHIN Assistant Manager Research amp Advisory

During the 1990s whenever a strata-titled development

resolved to go the ldquocollective sales1rdquo market or en-bloc route

it was like hitting the proverbial jackpot Having a home or

a place of business go en-bloc was almost always associated

with overnight riches of the exponential kind where luck or

fate or destiny suddenly seemed to smile upon ordinary folk

through no effort on their part And the windfall (or super-

normal profits or fortuitous gains) was indeed substantial in

those days Naturally so as each revision of the Master Plan (in

five-year intervals) designated increases of plot ratios2 across

the board in Singapore and rezoned the land use of various sites

islandwide With the intensification of development potential

and change in land use zoning for many sites some 20 yearsago it was no wonder that developers were willing to pump in

what seemed like astronomical sums many times the value of

what property owners would get if they were to sell individually

on the open market Tis was the case for many private

residential developments in the Central Region of Singapore

such as those in the Newton and Novena areas

However much has changed since those heady days of

striking the en-bloc lottery Fast forward some 20 years and

the collective sales market appears to have come to a standstill

in 2014 Te Master Plan from 2003 onwards has not had

the same magnitude of plot ratio increases as before andtherefore the type of premium developers were prepared

to pay in the past has shrunk with time to more moderate

levels Many rounds of Government policy measures to

curtail speculative real estate activity and to foster financial

prudence have also taken much of the froth out of the property

markets and consequently the steam out of collective salesactivities Tese reasons combined with perceived challenges

by owners in replacing sold en-bloc units with the proceeds

from the collective sale a pervasive tentative wait-and-see herd

mentality and lacklustre interest from developers who have

otherwise turned towards the Government Land Sales (GLS)

Programme for their source of development land have made

for an anaemic collective sales market in 2014 Tus far from

January to July 2014 not one single real estate investment sale

has succeeded in the collective sales route

Tis has raised questions of whether the way of collective sales

has had its day and is now no longer relevant in Singaporersquos

real estate landscape Is the collective sale still a useful and

meaningful method of transaction in the mature and developed

Singapore of today

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 27

2 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

BackgroundIt has been slightly over five years since the real estate market in

Singapore recovered from the onset of the global financial crisis

in 2008 Over the five-year period from 2009 to 2013 developers

have snapped up some 121 land parcels worth a total of $750

billion via the collective sales route During the period sales

momentum in the collective sales market peaked in 2011 when

41 land parcels totalling $304 billion were acquired before

transaction activity started to wind down in the following years

of 2012 and 2013

Total Collective Sales by Sector

YEAR COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRIAL HOTEL MIXED TOTAL

983090983088983088983097VALUE (983076 MIL) 983088 983089983090983090983094983094 983088 983088 983088 983089983090983090983094983094

NUMBER OF SITES 983088 983091 983088 983088 983088 983091

983090983088983089983088VALUE (983076 MIL) 983088 983089983093983096983096983091983093 983088 983088 983093983092983091983088 983089983094983092983090983094983093

NUMBER OF SITES 983088 983092983088 983088 983088 983089 983092983089

983090983088983089983089VALUE (983076 MIL) 983088 983090983093983094983094983089983092 983088 983089983090983094983096983088 983091983092983095983088983091 983091983088983091983097983097983095

NUMBER OF SITES 983088 983091983096 983088 983089 983090 983092983089

983090983088983089983090

VALUE (983076 MIL) 983089983089983094983092983089 983097983088983091983094983095 983092983091983089983096 983088 983092983093983091983097983095 983089983093983089983095983090983091

NUMBER OF SITES 983090 983089983092 983089 983088 983093 983090983090

983090983088983089983091VALUE (983076 MIL) 983092983092983093983088983088 983093983088983088983088983089 983089983089983095983092983088 983088 983089983089983091983088983088 983089983089983095983093983092983089

NUMBER OF SITES 983090 983096 983091 983088 983089 983089983092

TOTALVALUE (983076 MIL) 983093983094983089983092983089 983093983094983096983088983096983091 983089983094983088983093983096 983089983090983094983096983088 983097983094983096983091983088 983095983092983097983095983097983090

NUMBER OF SITES 983092 983089983088983091 983092 983089 983097 983089983090983089

In the last five years low interest rates and massive liquidity

inflows that supported investment demand and led property

prices to hit record highs on the back of buoyant investor

demand had prompted the Government to implement a seriesof cooling measures particularly in the private residential

property market

One of the measures deemed to have a significant bearing on

the residential collective sales market was the implementation

of Additional Buyerrsquos Stamp Duty 3 (ABSD) of 10 on the

acquisition of residential development land from 8 December

2011 onwards Although developers are able to apply for

remission of the ABSD if they develop and sell all of the new

units within five years such a time constraint reduced the

flexibility to hold the collective sale sites for longer-term land-

banking purposes As a result total collective sales concluded

in 2012 moderated to $152 billion from the sales of 22 landparcels about half of the total value and number of transactions

registered in 2011

And then in June 2013 the otal Debt Servicing Ratio4 (DSR)

framework was implemented adding to the growing list of

obstacles that have been impeding the successful conclusion of

collective sales

Existing owners of developments that are going on the en-bloc

path have already come to expect a substantial premium due

to the fact that they are selling their units collectively instead of

individually Added to that the advent of the DSR might have

exacerbated the call for even higher prices as affected ownersmight have to use a significant proportion of the proceeds from

the sale to clear the potential credit hurdles placed upon them

by the DSR when sourcing for a replacement property At the

same time developers are concerned about the longer project

sales period arising from the sluggish home sales in the mid-and high-end residential markets Tis has led to the widening

gap in price expectations between developers and sellers and

thus longer gestation period for collective sales to go through if

at all

Based on Colliers International Singaporersquos research it is

estimated that the chances of a property being successful in a

collective sale attempt averaged at 376 in the last three years

from 2011 to 2013 In other words six out of 10 properties would

be met with failure after successfully obtaining the consensus

to launch via the collective sales route In 2013 alone only three

in 10 collective sales launches were successfully sold with an

overall estimated failure rate of 67 Sometimes the reasonsfor the failure were due to developers requiring more time or

in some cases no bids were received in the tender exercise

However the most common recurring reason in recent times is

that the reserve price5 was not met by interested parties

Source Colliers International Research

Failure Rate of Collective Sales Launches

Source Colliers International Research

Year

2011

Year

2012

Year

2013

61 59 67

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 37

3 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

In the first seven months of 2014 the same factors that have

kept the collective sales market in the doldrums continued to

play out Not a single development was sold via the collective

sale route

In the residential scenehellip

Te existing impasse in the residential collective sales market isdue to the combination of the following factors

the market cooling measures that have resulted in a subdued

private residential market

the measures that have placed constraints on developersrsquo

project completion and project sales periods

developersrsquo reticence in paying top dollar for en-bloc sites

due to falling residential sales and prices

the impending surge of new private residential property

supply in the coming years

collective sellersrsquo profit expectations

bull

bull

bull

bull

bull

It has also become a norm that the gestation for collective

sales is lengthy and in some instances hopeful collective

sellers may need to go through the collective sales process

for a development more than once each time lowering their

expectations While this can be arduous the chances of a

successful sale increase if sellers are prepared to take a more

rational view of prevailing market conditions

A case in point was Whitley Heights off Tomson Road Te

site was first put up for collective sale in January 2011 with a

guide price of between $18500 million and $21000 million

translating to $1421-$1613 per sq ft per plot ratio Eventually it

was successfully sold for $15900 million or $1222 per sq ft per

plot ratio in September 2011 after it was launched for sale again

in June 2011 Te price at this second attempt represents a 14

to 24 decrease from the previous guide price

In addition some developments which maintained their asking

prices throughout multiple en-bloc attempts continued to be

unsuccessful For instance Villa Des Flores located on Whitley

Road was launched for collective sales separately in June

2012 and October 2012 but failed to find buyers as bids were

under the indicative asking price of between $16000 millionto $16500 million Te en-bloc attempt was unsuccessful yet

again after it was launched for a third time in January 2013 at

the same indicative asking price

Te chances of large residential sites being successful in a

collective sales attempt are also slim as the enforcement of

the ABSD has channelled developersrsquo attention to bite-sized

residential land parcels that offer quick turnaround time

and GLS sites where the tender process is comparatively less

labourious One of the most prominent cases was the 330-unit

Eunosville located on Sims Avenue which was launched for

collective sale in June 2013 with a minimum price of $68800

million While the site attracted interest from three developers when the tender closed in August 2013 developers were quoted

saying more time was needed to assess the market given the

relatively larger scale of the project Te property was launched

for collective sale again in December 2013 with a similar asking

price but failed to find buyers

As a result the number of sites sold for at least $10000 million

apiece shrank significantly from nine sites in 2011 to only three

and two sites in 2012 and 2013 respectively

Number of Residential Collective Sales Transactions(by Price Band)

Source Colliers International Research

Spring Grove Potentially Largest En-bloc in Singapore

And perhaps part of the gulf emanating from sellersrsquo

expectations is the replacement of their current home should

a collective sale be successful For a large part of the last five

years when prices of private residential properties were moving

up upon recovery from the global financial crisis unit owners

in developments that went the en-bloc route could have been

under pressure to sell at the maximum reach of their price

expectations as the cost of their likely replacement unit was also

trending upwards Between the time taken to successfully sell

collectively and to use the proceeds from the sale to purchase a

new home prices of targeted private replacement homes might

have risen significantly

Tese trends have since changed and are in the process of

changing still Te Private Residential Property Price Index

tracked by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) roseby 623 from the trough of the market in 2Q 2009 to the most

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 47

4 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Tis means that those who bought residences three to four

years ago are soon approaching a point where they can sell

their property without attracting SSD Some might even feel

that a 4 SSD (in their fourth year from acquisition) might

be worthwhile paying the taxman in order to cash out before

private residential prices fall even further so long as they still

enjoy capital appreciation at todayrsquos prices Te attraction of

cashing out now without SSD or with minimal SSD is further

enhanced with an increasingly challenging leasing market For

this wave of potential home sellers cutting and running with

profits in hand might become common in the next 12 months

again providing affected en-bloc sellers with a wide variety

of reasonably new ready-to-move in choices in a variety of

locations all with likely discounts thrown in for good measure to

facilitate the sale

A unit holder in an ageing residential development that has

the potential to go down the collective sale route could and

should consider all these factors and if the mathematics make

financial sense it might very well be the practical decision to

dispose of an ageing functionally obsolete asset that requires

a burgeoning maintenance bill Sweetening a collective sale by

lowering the reserve price and hence drawing developers backinto the en-bloc arena might just be the most balanced and

sensible course as an exit strategy for home owners of aged

properties in such times

Commercial buildings get old toohellip

And why should this principle of using the collective sales

method as an exit strategy not also be applicable for

commercial properties After all commercial properties also

get old sometimes at a seemingly faster rate with modern shiny

new shopping malls and grade A office buildings taking shape

all over Singapore

recent peak in 3Q 2013 before the market cooling measures

had an impactful restraining influence on price With the

price index correcting by 32 between 3Q 2013 and 2Q

2014 residential prices are expected to moderate downwards

throughout the rest of 2014 with this trend continuing into

2015 and 2016 in light of the projected record number of new

home completions during these two years Some 21948 new

homes are expected to be completed in 2015 while another23876 units are expected to be completed in 2016 Sellers of

residential developments in the midst of the collective sales

process might well adopt a siege mentality and abandon any

notion of going the en-bloc route until times are better

Notwithstanding the impending supply of new private homes

increasing vacancy and easing rentals might be further

exacerbated by another inevitability In February 2010 the

Government imposed a sellerrsquos stamp duty (SSD) on sellers

who had purchased residential properties from 20 February

2010 and disposed of them within one year of acquisition Te

SSD time frame for disposal was later extended to within three

years of acquisition by August 2010 and again extended oncemore to four years by January 2011

Presently the SSD rates over four years are

Percentage of price or market value whicheveris higher

Holding period

However this very instinctive knee-jerk pull back just because

market prices are lower might not be the best course of action

Sure sellers have to market their projects at lower reserve

prices But with the general residential market weakening and

prices expected to fall further replacement units are likely to

become more affordable in the coming months If the need to

sell collectively at high prices was meant to mitigate the soaring

prices of replacement units in the last five years then by the

same token if sellers are willing to factor in a discount in their

price expectations in order to attract developers back into the

collective sales market so that they are able to dispose of their

older properties they might just be able to find more than

affordable replacement opportunities in a softening market

Depending on the mathematics of each individual householdrsquos

decisions a family might possibly gain as much profit (if not

more) by selling low and then buying an even more affordable

replacement unit in a downtrend market than one who is

attempting to collectively sell high in order to keep pace with

rising prices in a buoyant market

Could such a situation be mere fantasy and wishful thinking

Not likely After all with more new homes being completed

and the Government keeping stricter control on the size of the

foreign worker population and immigration private residential

property vacancy rates have started to creep up From 51 in

1Q 2013 private residential property vacancy rates have been

inching upwards to 71 by 2Q 2014 the first time the 70 level

has been breached since 1Q 2006 more than eight years ago As

vacancy rates increase private residential property rents have

gone the opposite direction with the URA Private Residential

Property Rental Index falling by 18 from 3Q 2013 to 2Q 2014

1 year

16

2 years

12

3 years

8

4 years

4

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 57

5 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Owners of offices retail stores medical suites or a combination

of these types of properties in either a strata-titled single-use

or mixed-use development might also wish to consider the en-

bloc route for similar reasons of practical disposal and renewal

Commercial users of strata-titled buildings sometimes are

reluctant to agree to a collective sale citing reasons of legacy

where their clients and customers will still extend their

patronage due to the familiarity of the location and the building

no matter how old or decrepit the property becomes However

locational goodwill is more pertinent for strata-titled property

owners of retail shops which are more location sensitive

than office and medical suite owners Businesses and clinics

relocate regularly with comparatively less impact compared

to retail shops as the brand or reputation of these businesses

and medical practitioners play a more important role than

an existing goodwill associated with a building or location

in supporting their business so long they do not relocate to

inaccessible remote areas

Terefore strata-titled property owners of commercialbuildings would need to also consider that a buildingrsquos lifespan

is finite and everything falls apart with time and neglect A

point will eventually be reached when the building services

mechanical electrical other utilities and finishes will one day

become obsolete with the resolute passing of time Despite any

ownerrsquos sentimental attachment to a place of business practical

functionality will one day overwhelm whatever locational

goodwill a building enjoys in the form of a loyal customer

base Such sentiment can also be dislodged by the often

capricious vagaries of fate as circumstances change and former

fundamentals are rendered moot with countrywide progress

and societal evolution Again the collective sales route offers a

practical way out

Te office and retail owners of the former Midlink Plaza

successfully disposed of the ageing commercial building

in 2011 with the new owner redeveloping the site into a

hotel Te strategic sale consolidation under a single owner

and redevelopment with a modern and updated use that is

complementary to the locality has benefited not only the sellers

but also the buyerdeveloper and the neighbourhood

In the same vein other strata-titled buildings especially in the

central areas can also harness the collective sale route Strata-

titled retail buildings have a tendency to be characterised by a

lack of tenant-mix control Individual owners will let or sell to

the highest paying lessee or buyerinvestor with little regard

as to how the incoming entityrsquos business is going to impact the

other tenants in the building Te increase in incompatible

trades sometimes side by side can potentially increase the

level of conflict among neighbours and create a disjointed

disharmony of unlikely trades within the shopping complex

Tis dissonance could eventually affect public perception of

the mall as a whole where deferential customer goodwill in the

past might turn to a grudging negative avoidance in the future

Sometimes the different and conflicting agendas can also prove

detrimental to the physical building itself especially in the use

of funds for building improvements Te range of problems

include prompt payment of service charges and maintenance

fees by individual shop owners the appropriate usage of funds

and the need for majority consensus Tis not only involves

funds that can be used for advertisements and promotional

campaigns to increase the profile of the entire shopping

complex but also for more basic building maintenance and

improvement issues Te collective sale avenue presents a

practical exit for owners of such ageing buildings in the mannerof Midlink Plaza and Serangoon Plaza Owners of Te Arcade at

Collyer Quay also made a positive attempt to blaze the en-bloc

trail even though it was unsuccessful

Individual owners to

exit an ageing buildingas well as find and fundalternative premises thatbetter suit the needs of

their businesses

The neighbourhood togenerate more tourist

activity

The buyer

developer tocreate economic

value throughredevelopment

The neighbourhoodto progressively

rejuvenate

Peace Centre amp Peace Mansion Another attempt on the way after two failed collectivesale attempts Out of place ageing building in an area undergoing renewal

Tis Midlink Plaza collective sale provided opportunities for

Te Arcade Failed collective sale at high asking price

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 67

6 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

For example in Orchard Road there is little land from the

Government for fresh development Terefore it will be the

ageing strata-titled malls that have the best potential for

redevelopment in order to contribute to the continued renewal

of Singaporersquos premier shopping belt Instead of waiting for

the proverbial ldquopot of goldrdquo that may or may not materialise

before the building reaches a stage of terminal disrepair strata-

titled shop owners could at least give some consideration tocollective sales as a way to move on and upgrade their business

environment

recurring income as well as other non-tangible benefits Tis

could include personal enjoyment of a property that does not

require the hassle of repeated repairs and peace of mind in a

newer upgraded environment

It is inconceivable that buyers (developers and landlords)

are going to pay anywhere close to outrageous sums for

development land unless it makes economic sense As real

estate development becomes more competitive and intense

with Singaporersquos urban progress developersrsquo appetite for risk

will moderate to become more conservative Sellers need to

attempt to understand and appreciate that developersbuyers

ndash both now and in the foreseeable future ndash require a higher risk

discount to mitigate the magnitude of property development

in modern Singapore Because if the price is fair and in a range

that the developer stands an even chance at a decent profit

activity will return to the collective sales market

And in the end while nobody really wins in a big dramatic

fashion everyone does benefit in a fashion Individuals

obtain proceeds that are generally better than if they were tosell individually and thereby are able to fund a replacement

property that still has a reasonable length of economic and

functional life Buyersdevelopers continue to be able to obtain

the raw material needed for their development business

Communities are routinely renewed as old buildings make way

for functional up-to-date modern ones And on an islandwide

basis even the privately owned areas of Singapore would be in

a continual state of revitalisation without any neighbourhood

becoming jaded with obsolete properties

Te collective sales route is still relevant and can still be

meaningful for owners and developers despite the changes in

the real estate market in the last 20 years What is most needfulin order to harness the usefulness of the collective sales method

with present circumstances is a paradigm shift of perception

and mindsets Sellers must accept within their collective (no

pun intended) mindsets that making a sudden windfall from

chance is a thing best filed in the annals of history Te way

forward for collective sales should be that of a practical method

of disposal for an ageing asset that is past its functional prime

While not everyone can win big allthe time everyone benefits fromrenewalhellip

Sometimes owners do not wish to sell for sentimental reasons

having formed an indelible bond with their property over a longperiod of time And while this attachment is understandable

the other general perceptions motives and mindsets about

the collective sales market will have to change as Singaporersquos

real estate market evolves and matures If the herd mentality

towards collective sales remains one where sellers expect to

strike it rich in one lucky twist of fate the current impasse

between buyers and sellers will continue with no one

benefiting Eventually this will result in a growing number of

buildings developments neighbourhoods and communities

not being able to renew themselves Te standoff will lead to

sellers on one side wanting their windfall and developers on the

other wanting land for their business

Te way ahead will be more practical considered and

reasonable albeit not nearly as exciting nor as intoxicating as it

was in the past

For sellers the collective sales market must come to represent

a method where they can exit their ageing real estate with

a reasonable sum and perhaps some profits on the side

(reasonable profits are no longer defined as earth shattering

bonanzas) Te premium can no longer be as dramatic as that

of the past as plot ratios have not increased in any substantial

fashion in more than 10 years Te collective disposal of an

obsolete and ageing building allows individual sellers to moveon and right size to another property that is more modern

physically functional and that is better yielding in terms of

anglin Shopping Centre Another attempt on the way after previous failed collectivesale exercises at high asking prices

1 According to Strata itles Boards a collective sale is a combined sale by the owners oftwo or more property units to a common purchaser Te most common collective sale isthe sale of all the units in a strata-titled or flatted development to a purchaser Te sale

proceeds are then divided amongst all the unit owners

2 Te ratio of the gross floor area of a development to its site area

3 Te ABSD was introduced by the Government on 8 December 2011 An ABSD ofbetween 3 and 10 is to be paid by certain groups of buyers of residential properties(including land) Te ABSD rates for the purchase of residential properties were laterraised by between five and seven percentage points in January 2013 Besides Singapor-eans buying their first residential property all other groups of residential property buyersare affected by this increase

4 Effective from 29 June 2013 individuals (including sole proprietorships and vehiclesset up by an individual solely to purchase property) will be subject to a otal DebtServicing Ratio (DSR) framework for all property loans granted by financial institu-tions In addition to the 60 cap on a borrowerrsquos total monthly debt payment certainrules relating to the application of the existing Loan-to-Value (LV) limits on housingloans granted by financial institutions were also refined In particular ldquoguarantorsrdquo arenow to be included as co-borrowers and one of the purchasers on the option to purchase

Additionally the income-weighted average (based on gross monthly income) age of allco-borrowers is to be adopted when applying the rules on loan tenure

5 Te pre-agreed minimum price sellers are prepared to sell their properties for

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 77

Copyright copy 2014 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy we cannot guarantee it No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report

About Colliers International

Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services with over 15800professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries A subsidiary of FirstServiceCorporation Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users ownersand investors worldwide including global corporate solutions brokerage property and assetmanagement hotel investment sales and consulting valuation consulting and appraisal servicesmortgage banking and insightful research Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company rankedColliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world

collierscom

485 offices in

63 countries on

6 continentsUnited States 146

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Latin America 25

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ANZ 148

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US$21billion inannual revenue

146billion square feetunder management

15800professionalsand staff

Contact

Chia Siew Chuin

Director

singaporeresearchcollierscom

Colliers International | Singapore

1 Raffles Place45-00 One Raffles Place

Singapore 046818

TEL +65 6223 2323

FAX +65 6222 4901

RCB No 198105965E

Page 2: Colliers Report - Aug2014

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 27

2 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

BackgroundIt has been slightly over five years since the real estate market in

Singapore recovered from the onset of the global financial crisis

in 2008 Over the five-year period from 2009 to 2013 developers

have snapped up some 121 land parcels worth a total of $750

billion via the collective sales route During the period sales

momentum in the collective sales market peaked in 2011 when

41 land parcels totalling $304 billion were acquired before

transaction activity started to wind down in the following years

of 2012 and 2013

Total Collective Sales by Sector

YEAR COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRIAL HOTEL MIXED TOTAL

983090983088983088983097VALUE (983076 MIL) 983088 983089983090983090983094983094 983088 983088 983088 983089983090983090983094983094

NUMBER OF SITES 983088 983091 983088 983088 983088 983091

983090983088983089983088VALUE (983076 MIL) 983088 983089983093983096983096983091983093 983088 983088 983093983092983091983088 983089983094983092983090983094983093

NUMBER OF SITES 983088 983092983088 983088 983088 983089 983092983089

983090983088983089983089VALUE (983076 MIL) 983088 983090983093983094983094983089983092 983088 983089983090983094983096983088 983091983092983095983088983091 983091983088983091983097983097983095

NUMBER OF SITES 983088 983091983096 983088 983089 983090 983092983089

983090983088983089983090

VALUE (983076 MIL) 983089983089983094983092983089 983097983088983091983094983095 983092983091983089983096 983088 983092983093983091983097983095 983089983093983089983095983090983091

NUMBER OF SITES 983090 983089983092 983089 983088 983093 983090983090

983090983088983089983091VALUE (983076 MIL) 983092983092983093983088983088 983093983088983088983088983089 983089983089983095983092983088 983088 983089983089983091983088983088 983089983089983095983093983092983089

NUMBER OF SITES 983090 983096 983091 983088 983089 983089983092

TOTALVALUE (983076 MIL) 983093983094983089983092983089 983093983094983096983088983096983091 983089983094983088983093983096 983089983090983094983096983088 983097983094983096983091983088 983095983092983097983095983097983090

NUMBER OF SITES 983092 983089983088983091 983092 983089 983097 983089983090983089

In the last five years low interest rates and massive liquidity

inflows that supported investment demand and led property

prices to hit record highs on the back of buoyant investor

demand had prompted the Government to implement a seriesof cooling measures particularly in the private residential

property market

One of the measures deemed to have a significant bearing on

the residential collective sales market was the implementation

of Additional Buyerrsquos Stamp Duty 3 (ABSD) of 10 on the

acquisition of residential development land from 8 December

2011 onwards Although developers are able to apply for

remission of the ABSD if they develop and sell all of the new

units within five years such a time constraint reduced the

flexibility to hold the collective sale sites for longer-term land-

banking purposes As a result total collective sales concluded

in 2012 moderated to $152 billion from the sales of 22 landparcels about half of the total value and number of transactions

registered in 2011

And then in June 2013 the otal Debt Servicing Ratio4 (DSR)

framework was implemented adding to the growing list of

obstacles that have been impeding the successful conclusion of

collective sales

Existing owners of developments that are going on the en-bloc

path have already come to expect a substantial premium due

to the fact that they are selling their units collectively instead of

individually Added to that the advent of the DSR might have

exacerbated the call for even higher prices as affected ownersmight have to use a significant proportion of the proceeds from

the sale to clear the potential credit hurdles placed upon them

by the DSR when sourcing for a replacement property At the

same time developers are concerned about the longer project

sales period arising from the sluggish home sales in the mid-and high-end residential markets Tis has led to the widening

gap in price expectations between developers and sellers and

thus longer gestation period for collective sales to go through if

at all

Based on Colliers International Singaporersquos research it is

estimated that the chances of a property being successful in a

collective sale attempt averaged at 376 in the last three years

from 2011 to 2013 In other words six out of 10 properties would

be met with failure after successfully obtaining the consensus

to launch via the collective sales route In 2013 alone only three

in 10 collective sales launches were successfully sold with an

overall estimated failure rate of 67 Sometimes the reasonsfor the failure were due to developers requiring more time or

in some cases no bids were received in the tender exercise

However the most common recurring reason in recent times is

that the reserve price5 was not met by interested parties

Source Colliers International Research

Failure Rate of Collective Sales Launches

Source Colliers International Research

Year

2011

Year

2012

Year

2013

61 59 67

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 37

3 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

In the first seven months of 2014 the same factors that have

kept the collective sales market in the doldrums continued to

play out Not a single development was sold via the collective

sale route

In the residential scenehellip

Te existing impasse in the residential collective sales market isdue to the combination of the following factors

the market cooling measures that have resulted in a subdued

private residential market

the measures that have placed constraints on developersrsquo

project completion and project sales periods

developersrsquo reticence in paying top dollar for en-bloc sites

due to falling residential sales and prices

the impending surge of new private residential property

supply in the coming years

collective sellersrsquo profit expectations

bull

bull

bull

bull

bull

It has also become a norm that the gestation for collective

sales is lengthy and in some instances hopeful collective

sellers may need to go through the collective sales process

for a development more than once each time lowering their

expectations While this can be arduous the chances of a

successful sale increase if sellers are prepared to take a more

rational view of prevailing market conditions

A case in point was Whitley Heights off Tomson Road Te

site was first put up for collective sale in January 2011 with a

guide price of between $18500 million and $21000 million

translating to $1421-$1613 per sq ft per plot ratio Eventually it

was successfully sold for $15900 million or $1222 per sq ft per

plot ratio in September 2011 after it was launched for sale again

in June 2011 Te price at this second attempt represents a 14

to 24 decrease from the previous guide price

In addition some developments which maintained their asking

prices throughout multiple en-bloc attempts continued to be

unsuccessful For instance Villa Des Flores located on Whitley

Road was launched for collective sales separately in June

2012 and October 2012 but failed to find buyers as bids were

under the indicative asking price of between $16000 millionto $16500 million Te en-bloc attempt was unsuccessful yet

again after it was launched for a third time in January 2013 at

the same indicative asking price

Te chances of large residential sites being successful in a

collective sales attempt are also slim as the enforcement of

the ABSD has channelled developersrsquo attention to bite-sized

residential land parcels that offer quick turnaround time

and GLS sites where the tender process is comparatively less

labourious One of the most prominent cases was the 330-unit

Eunosville located on Sims Avenue which was launched for

collective sale in June 2013 with a minimum price of $68800

million While the site attracted interest from three developers when the tender closed in August 2013 developers were quoted

saying more time was needed to assess the market given the

relatively larger scale of the project Te property was launched

for collective sale again in December 2013 with a similar asking

price but failed to find buyers

As a result the number of sites sold for at least $10000 million

apiece shrank significantly from nine sites in 2011 to only three

and two sites in 2012 and 2013 respectively

Number of Residential Collective Sales Transactions(by Price Band)

Source Colliers International Research

Spring Grove Potentially Largest En-bloc in Singapore

And perhaps part of the gulf emanating from sellersrsquo

expectations is the replacement of their current home should

a collective sale be successful For a large part of the last five

years when prices of private residential properties were moving

up upon recovery from the global financial crisis unit owners

in developments that went the en-bloc route could have been

under pressure to sell at the maximum reach of their price

expectations as the cost of their likely replacement unit was also

trending upwards Between the time taken to successfully sell

collectively and to use the proceeds from the sale to purchase a

new home prices of targeted private replacement homes might

have risen significantly

Tese trends have since changed and are in the process of

changing still Te Private Residential Property Price Index

tracked by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) roseby 623 from the trough of the market in 2Q 2009 to the most

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 47

4 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Tis means that those who bought residences three to four

years ago are soon approaching a point where they can sell

their property without attracting SSD Some might even feel

that a 4 SSD (in their fourth year from acquisition) might

be worthwhile paying the taxman in order to cash out before

private residential prices fall even further so long as they still

enjoy capital appreciation at todayrsquos prices Te attraction of

cashing out now without SSD or with minimal SSD is further

enhanced with an increasingly challenging leasing market For

this wave of potential home sellers cutting and running with

profits in hand might become common in the next 12 months

again providing affected en-bloc sellers with a wide variety

of reasonably new ready-to-move in choices in a variety of

locations all with likely discounts thrown in for good measure to

facilitate the sale

A unit holder in an ageing residential development that has

the potential to go down the collective sale route could and

should consider all these factors and if the mathematics make

financial sense it might very well be the practical decision to

dispose of an ageing functionally obsolete asset that requires

a burgeoning maintenance bill Sweetening a collective sale by

lowering the reserve price and hence drawing developers backinto the en-bloc arena might just be the most balanced and

sensible course as an exit strategy for home owners of aged

properties in such times

Commercial buildings get old toohellip

And why should this principle of using the collective sales

method as an exit strategy not also be applicable for

commercial properties After all commercial properties also

get old sometimes at a seemingly faster rate with modern shiny

new shopping malls and grade A office buildings taking shape

all over Singapore

recent peak in 3Q 2013 before the market cooling measures

had an impactful restraining influence on price With the

price index correcting by 32 between 3Q 2013 and 2Q

2014 residential prices are expected to moderate downwards

throughout the rest of 2014 with this trend continuing into

2015 and 2016 in light of the projected record number of new

home completions during these two years Some 21948 new

homes are expected to be completed in 2015 while another23876 units are expected to be completed in 2016 Sellers of

residential developments in the midst of the collective sales

process might well adopt a siege mentality and abandon any

notion of going the en-bloc route until times are better

Notwithstanding the impending supply of new private homes

increasing vacancy and easing rentals might be further

exacerbated by another inevitability In February 2010 the

Government imposed a sellerrsquos stamp duty (SSD) on sellers

who had purchased residential properties from 20 February

2010 and disposed of them within one year of acquisition Te

SSD time frame for disposal was later extended to within three

years of acquisition by August 2010 and again extended oncemore to four years by January 2011

Presently the SSD rates over four years are

Percentage of price or market value whicheveris higher

Holding period

However this very instinctive knee-jerk pull back just because

market prices are lower might not be the best course of action

Sure sellers have to market their projects at lower reserve

prices But with the general residential market weakening and

prices expected to fall further replacement units are likely to

become more affordable in the coming months If the need to

sell collectively at high prices was meant to mitigate the soaring

prices of replacement units in the last five years then by the

same token if sellers are willing to factor in a discount in their

price expectations in order to attract developers back into the

collective sales market so that they are able to dispose of their

older properties they might just be able to find more than

affordable replacement opportunities in a softening market

Depending on the mathematics of each individual householdrsquos

decisions a family might possibly gain as much profit (if not

more) by selling low and then buying an even more affordable

replacement unit in a downtrend market than one who is

attempting to collectively sell high in order to keep pace with

rising prices in a buoyant market

Could such a situation be mere fantasy and wishful thinking

Not likely After all with more new homes being completed

and the Government keeping stricter control on the size of the

foreign worker population and immigration private residential

property vacancy rates have started to creep up From 51 in

1Q 2013 private residential property vacancy rates have been

inching upwards to 71 by 2Q 2014 the first time the 70 level

has been breached since 1Q 2006 more than eight years ago As

vacancy rates increase private residential property rents have

gone the opposite direction with the URA Private Residential

Property Rental Index falling by 18 from 3Q 2013 to 2Q 2014

1 year

16

2 years

12

3 years

8

4 years

4

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 57

5 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Owners of offices retail stores medical suites or a combination

of these types of properties in either a strata-titled single-use

or mixed-use development might also wish to consider the en-

bloc route for similar reasons of practical disposal and renewal

Commercial users of strata-titled buildings sometimes are

reluctant to agree to a collective sale citing reasons of legacy

where their clients and customers will still extend their

patronage due to the familiarity of the location and the building

no matter how old or decrepit the property becomes However

locational goodwill is more pertinent for strata-titled property

owners of retail shops which are more location sensitive

than office and medical suite owners Businesses and clinics

relocate regularly with comparatively less impact compared

to retail shops as the brand or reputation of these businesses

and medical practitioners play a more important role than

an existing goodwill associated with a building or location

in supporting their business so long they do not relocate to

inaccessible remote areas

Terefore strata-titled property owners of commercialbuildings would need to also consider that a buildingrsquos lifespan

is finite and everything falls apart with time and neglect A

point will eventually be reached when the building services

mechanical electrical other utilities and finishes will one day

become obsolete with the resolute passing of time Despite any

ownerrsquos sentimental attachment to a place of business practical

functionality will one day overwhelm whatever locational

goodwill a building enjoys in the form of a loyal customer

base Such sentiment can also be dislodged by the often

capricious vagaries of fate as circumstances change and former

fundamentals are rendered moot with countrywide progress

and societal evolution Again the collective sales route offers a

practical way out

Te office and retail owners of the former Midlink Plaza

successfully disposed of the ageing commercial building

in 2011 with the new owner redeveloping the site into a

hotel Te strategic sale consolidation under a single owner

and redevelopment with a modern and updated use that is

complementary to the locality has benefited not only the sellers

but also the buyerdeveloper and the neighbourhood

In the same vein other strata-titled buildings especially in the

central areas can also harness the collective sale route Strata-

titled retail buildings have a tendency to be characterised by a

lack of tenant-mix control Individual owners will let or sell to

the highest paying lessee or buyerinvestor with little regard

as to how the incoming entityrsquos business is going to impact the

other tenants in the building Te increase in incompatible

trades sometimes side by side can potentially increase the

level of conflict among neighbours and create a disjointed

disharmony of unlikely trades within the shopping complex

Tis dissonance could eventually affect public perception of

the mall as a whole where deferential customer goodwill in the

past might turn to a grudging negative avoidance in the future

Sometimes the different and conflicting agendas can also prove

detrimental to the physical building itself especially in the use

of funds for building improvements Te range of problems

include prompt payment of service charges and maintenance

fees by individual shop owners the appropriate usage of funds

and the need for majority consensus Tis not only involves

funds that can be used for advertisements and promotional

campaigns to increase the profile of the entire shopping

complex but also for more basic building maintenance and

improvement issues Te collective sale avenue presents a

practical exit for owners of such ageing buildings in the mannerof Midlink Plaza and Serangoon Plaza Owners of Te Arcade at

Collyer Quay also made a positive attempt to blaze the en-bloc

trail even though it was unsuccessful

Individual owners to

exit an ageing buildingas well as find and fundalternative premises thatbetter suit the needs of

their businesses

The neighbourhood togenerate more tourist

activity

The buyer

developer tocreate economic

value throughredevelopment

The neighbourhoodto progressively

rejuvenate

Peace Centre amp Peace Mansion Another attempt on the way after two failed collectivesale attempts Out of place ageing building in an area undergoing renewal

Tis Midlink Plaza collective sale provided opportunities for

Te Arcade Failed collective sale at high asking price

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 67

6 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

For example in Orchard Road there is little land from the

Government for fresh development Terefore it will be the

ageing strata-titled malls that have the best potential for

redevelopment in order to contribute to the continued renewal

of Singaporersquos premier shopping belt Instead of waiting for

the proverbial ldquopot of goldrdquo that may or may not materialise

before the building reaches a stage of terminal disrepair strata-

titled shop owners could at least give some consideration tocollective sales as a way to move on and upgrade their business

environment

recurring income as well as other non-tangible benefits Tis

could include personal enjoyment of a property that does not

require the hassle of repeated repairs and peace of mind in a

newer upgraded environment

It is inconceivable that buyers (developers and landlords)

are going to pay anywhere close to outrageous sums for

development land unless it makes economic sense As real

estate development becomes more competitive and intense

with Singaporersquos urban progress developersrsquo appetite for risk

will moderate to become more conservative Sellers need to

attempt to understand and appreciate that developersbuyers

ndash both now and in the foreseeable future ndash require a higher risk

discount to mitigate the magnitude of property development

in modern Singapore Because if the price is fair and in a range

that the developer stands an even chance at a decent profit

activity will return to the collective sales market

And in the end while nobody really wins in a big dramatic

fashion everyone does benefit in a fashion Individuals

obtain proceeds that are generally better than if they were tosell individually and thereby are able to fund a replacement

property that still has a reasonable length of economic and

functional life Buyersdevelopers continue to be able to obtain

the raw material needed for their development business

Communities are routinely renewed as old buildings make way

for functional up-to-date modern ones And on an islandwide

basis even the privately owned areas of Singapore would be in

a continual state of revitalisation without any neighbourhood

becoming jaded with obsolete properties

Te collective sales route is still relevant and can still be

meaningful for owners and developers despite the changes in

the real estate market in the last 20 years What is most needfulin order to harness the usefulness of the collective sales method

with present circumstances is a paradigm shift of perception

and mindsets Sellers must accept within their collective (no

pun intended) mindsets that making a sudden windfall from

chance is a thing best filed in the annals of history Te way

forward for collective sales should be that of a practical method

of disposal for an ageing asset that is past its functional prime

While not everyone can win big allthe time everyone benefits fromrenewalhellip

Sometimes owners do not wish to sell for sentimental reasons

having formed an indelible bond with their property over a longperiod of time And while this attachment is understandable

the other general perceptions motives and mindsets about

the collective sales market will have to change as Singaporersquos

real estate market evolves and matures If the herd mentality

towards collective sales remains one where sellers expect to

strike it rich in one lucky twist of fate the current impasse

between buyers and sellers will continue with no one

benefiting Eventually this will result in a growing number of

buildings developments neighbourhoods and communities

not being able to renew themselves Te standoff will lead to

sellers on one side wanting their windfall and developers on the

other wanting land for their business

Te way ahead will be more practical considered and

reasonable albeit not nearly as exciting nor as intoxicating as it

was in the past

For sellers the collective sales market must come to represent

a method where they can exit their ageing real estate with

a reasonable sum and perhaps some profits on the side

(reasonable profits are no longer defined as earth shattering

bonanzas) Te premium can no longer be as dramatic as that

of the past as plot ratios have not increased in any substantial

fashion in more than 10 years Te collective disposal of an

obsolete and ageing building allows individual sellers to moveon and right size to another property that is more modern

physically functional and that is better yielding in terms of

anglin Shopping Centre Another attempt on the way after previous failed collectivesale exercises at high asking prices

1 According to Strata itles Boards a collective sale is a combined sale by the owners oftwo or more property units to a common purchaser Te most common collective sale isthe sale of all the units in a strata-titled or flatted development to a purchaser Te sale

proceeds are then divided amongst all the unit owners

2 Te ratio of the gross floor area of a development to its site area

3 Te ABSD was introduced by the Government on 8 December 2011 An ABSD ofbetween 3 and 10 is to be paid by certain groups of buyers of residential properties(including land) Te ABSD rates for the purchase of residential properties were laterraised by between five and seven percentage points in January 2013 Besides Singapor-eans buying their first residential property all other groups of residential property buyersare affected by this increase

4 Effective from 29 June 2013 individuals (including sole proprietorships and vehiclesset up by an individual solely to purchase property) will be subject to a otal DebtServicing Ratio (DSR) framework for all property loans granted by financial institu-tions In addition to the 60 cap on a borrowerrsquos total monthly debt payment certainrules relating to the application of the existing Loan-to-Value (LV) limits on housingloans granted by financial institutions were also refined In particular ldquoguarantorsrdquo arenow to be included as co-borrowers and one of the purchasers on the option to purchase

Additionally the income-weighted average (based on gross monthly income) age of allco-borrowers is to be adopted when applying the rules on loan tenure

5 Te pre-agreed minimum price sellers are prepared to sell their properties for

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 77

Copyright copy 2014 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy we cannot guarantee it No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report

About Colliers International

Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services with over 15800professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries A subsidiary of FirstServiceCorporation Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users ownersand investors worldwide including global corporate solutions brokerage property and assetmanagement hotel investment sales and consulting valuation consulting and appraisal servicesmortgage banking and insightful research Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company rankedColliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world

collierscom

485 offices in

63 countries on

6 continentsUnited States 146

Canada 44

Latin America 25

Asia 38

ANZ 148

EMEA 84

US$21billion inannual revenue

146billion square feetunder management

15800professionalsand staff

Contact

Chia Siew Chuin

Director

singaporeresearchcollierscom

Colliers International | Singapore

1 Raffles Place45-00 One Raffles Place

Singapore 046818

TEL +65 6223 2323

FAX +65 6222 4901

RCB No 198105965E

Page 3: Colliers Report - Aug2014

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 37

3 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

In the first seven months of 2014 the same factors that have

kept the collective sales market in the doldrums continued to

play out Not a single development was sold via the collective

sale route

In the residential scenehellip

Te existing impasse in the residential collective sales market isdue to the combination of the following factors

the market cooling measures that have resulted in a subdued

private residential market

the measures that have placed constraints on developersrsquo

project completion and project sales periods

developersrsquo reticence in paying top dollar for en-bloc sites

due to falling residential sales and prices

the impending surge of new private residential property

supply in the coming years

collective sellersrsquo profit expectations

bull

bull

bull

bull

bull

It has also become a norm that the gestation for collective

sales is lengthy and in some instances hopeful collective

sellers may need to go through the collective sales process

for a development more than once each time lowering their

expectations While this can be arduous the chances of a

successful sale increase if sellers are prepared to take a more

rational view of prevailing market conditions

A case in point was Whitley Heights off Tomson Road Te

site was first put up for collective sale in January 2011 with a

guide price of between $18500 million and $21000 million

translating to $1421-$1613 per sq ft per plot ratio Eventually it

was successfully sold for $15900 million or $1222 per sq ft per

plot ratio in September 2011 after it was launched for sale again

in June 2011 Te price at this second attempt represents a 14

to 24 decrease from the previous guide price

In addition some developments which maintained their asking

prices throughout multiple en-bloc attempts continued to be

unsuccessful For instance Villa Des Flores located on Whitley

Road was launched for collective sales separately in June

2012 and October 2012 but failed to find buyers as bids were

under the indicative asking price of between $16000 millionto $16500 million Te en-bloc attempt was unsuccessful yet

again after it was launched for a third time in January 2013 at

the same indicative asking price

Te chances of large residential sites being successful in a

collective sales attempt are also slim as the enforcement of

the ABSD has channelled developersrsquo attention to bite-sized

residential land parcels that offer quick turnaround time

and GLS sites where the tender process is comparatively less

labourious One of the most prominent cases was the 330-unit

Eunosville located on Sims Avenue which was launched for

collective sale in June 2013 with a minimum price of $68800

million While the site attracted interest from three developers when the tender closed in August 2013 developers were quoted

saying more time was needed to assess the market given the

relatively larger scale of the project Te property was launched

for collective sale again in December 2013 with a similar asking

price but failed to find buyers

As a result the number of sites sold for at least $10000 million

apiece shrank significantly from nine sites in 2011 to only three

and two sites in 2012 and 2013 respectively

Number of Residential Collective Sales Transactions(by Price Band)

Source Colliers International Research

Spring Grove Potentially Largest En-bloc in Singapore

And perhaps part of the gulf emanating from sellersrsquo

expectations is the replacement of their current home should

a collective sale be successful For a large part of the last five

years when prices of private residential properties were moving

up upon recovery from the global financial crisis unit owners

in developments that went the en-bloc route could have been

under pressure to sell at the maximum reach of their price

expectations as the cost of their likely replacement unit was also

trending upwards Between the time taken to successfully sell

collectively and to use the proceeds from the sale to purchase a

new home prices of targeted private replacement homes might

have risen significantly

Tese trends have since changed and are in the process of

changing still Te Private Residential Property Price Index

tracked by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) roseby 623 from the trough of the market in 2Q 2009 to the most

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 47

4 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Tis means that those who bought residences three to four

years ago are soon approaching a point where they can sell

their property without attracting SSD Some might even feel

that a 4 SSD (in their fourth year from acquisition) might

be worthwhile paying the taxman in order to cash out before

private residential prices fall even further so long as they still

enjoy capital appreciation at todayrsquos prices Te attraction of

cashing out now without SSD or with minimal SSD is further

enhanced with an increasingly challenging leasing market For

this wave of potential home sellers cutting and running with

profits in hand might become common in the next 12 months

again providing affected en-bloc sellers with a wide variety

of reasonably new ready-to-move in choices in a variety of

locations all with likely discounts thrown in for good measure to

facilitate the sale

A unit holder in an ageing residential development that has

the potential to go down the collective sale route could and

should consider all these factors and if the mathematics make

financial sense it might very well be the practical decision to

dispose of an ageing functionally obsolete asset that requires

a burgeoning maintenance bill Sweetening a collective sale by

lowering the reserve price and hence drawing developers backinto the en-bloc arena might just be the most balanced and

sensible course as an exit strategy for home owners of aged

properties in such times

Commercial buildings get old toohellip

And why should this principle of using the collective sales

method as an exit strategy not also be applicable for

commercial properties After all commercial properties also

get old sometimes at a seemingly faster rate with modern shiny

new shopping malls and grade A office buildings taking shape

all over Singapore

recent peak in 3Q 2013 before the market cooling measures

had an impactful restraining influence on price With the

price index correcting by 32 between 3Q 2013 and 2Q

2014 residential prices are expected to moderate downwards

throughout the rest of 2014 with this trend continuing into

2015 and 2016 in light of the projected record number of new

home completions during these two years Some 21948 new

homes are expected to be completed in 2015 while another23876 units are expected to be completed in 2016 Sellers of

residential developments in the midst of the collective sales

process might well adopt a siege mentality and abandon any

notion of going the en-bloc route until times are better

Notwithstanding the impending supply of new private homes

increasing vacancy and easing rentals might be further

exacerbated by another inevitability In February 2010 the

Government imposed a sellerrsquos stamp duty (SSD) on sellers

who had purchased residential properties from 20 February

2010 and disposed of them within one year of acquisition Te

SSD time frame for disposal was later extended to within three

years of acquisition by August 2010 and again extended oncemore to four years by January 2011

Presently the SSD rates over four years are

Percentage of price or market value whicheveris higher

Holding period

However this very instinctive knee-jerk pull back just because

market prices are lower might not be the best course of action

Sure sellers have to market their projects at lower reserve

prices But with the general residential market weakening and

prices expected to fall further replacement units are likely to

become more affordable in the coming months If the need to

sell collectively at high prices was meant to mitigate the soaring

prices of replacement units in the last five years then by the

same token if sellers are willing to factor in a discount in their

price expectations in order to attract developers back into the

collective sales market so that they are able to dispose of their

older properties they might just be able to find more than

affordable replacement opportunities in a softening market

Depending on the mathematics of each individual householdrsquos

decisions a family might possibly gain as much profit (if not

more) by selling low and then buying an even more affordable

replacement unit in a downtrend market than one who is

attempting to collectively sell high in order to keep pace with

rising prices in a buoyant market

Could such a situation be mere fantasy and wishful thinking

Not likely After all with more new homes being completed

and the Government keeping stricter control on the size of the

foreign worker population and immigration private residential

property vacancy rates have started to creep up From 51 in

1Q 2013 private residential property vacancy rates have been

inching upwards to 71 by 2Q 2014 the first time the 70 level

has been breached since 1Q 2006 more than eight years ago As

vacancy rates increase private residential property rents have

gone the opposite direction with the URA Private Residential

Property Rental Index falling by 18 from 3Q 2013 to 2Q 2014

1 year

16

2 years

12

3 years

8

4 years

4

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 57

5 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Owners of offices retail stores medical suites or a combination

of these types of properties in either a strata-titled single-use

or mixed-use development might also wish to consider the en-

bloc route for similar reasons of practical disposal and renewal

Commercial users of strata-titled buildings sometimes are

reluctant to agree to a collective sale citing reasons of legacy

where their clients and customers will still extend their

patronage due to the familiarity of the location and the building

no matter how old or decrepit the property becomes However

locational goodwill is more pertinent for strata-titled property

owners of retail shops which are more location sensitive

than office and medical suite owners Businesses and clinics

relocate regularly with comparatively less impact compared

to retail shops as the brand or reputation of these businesses

and medical practitioners play a more important role than

an existing goodwill associated with a building or location

in supporting their business so long they do not relocate to

inaccessible remote areas

Terefore strata-titled property owners of commercialbuildings would need to also consider that a buildingrsquos lifespan

is finite and everything falls apart with time and neglect A

point will eventually be reached when the building services

mechanical electrical other utilities and finishes will one day

become obsolete with the resolute passing of time Despite any

ownerrsquos sentimental attachment to a place of business practical

functionality will one day overwhelm whatever locational

goodwill a building enjoys in the form of a loyal customer

base Such sentiment can also be dislodged by the often

capricious vagaries of fate as circumstances change and former

fundamentals are rendered moot with countrywide progress

and societal evolution Again the collective sales route offers a

practical way out

Te office and retail owners of the former Midlink Plaza

successfully disposed of the ageing commercial building

in 2011 with the new owner redeveloping the site into a

hotel Te strategic sale consolidation under a single owner

and redevelopment with a modern and updated use that is

complementary to the locality has benefited not only the sellers

but also the buyerdeveloper and the neighbourhood

In the same vein other strata-titled buildings especially in the

central areas can also harness the collective sale route Strata-

titled retail buildings have a tendency to be characterised by a

lack of tenant-mix control Individual owners will let or sell to

the highest paying lessee or buyerinvestor with little regard

as to how the incoming entityrsquos business is going to impact the

other tenants in the building Te increase in incompatible

trades sometimes side by side can potentially increase the

level of conflict among neighbours and create a disjointed

disharmony of unlikely trades within the shopping complex

Tis dissonance could eventually affect public perception of

the mall as a whole where deferential customer goodwill in the

past might turn to a grudging negative avoidance in the future

Sometimes the different and conflicting agendas can also prove

detrimental to the physical building itself especially in the use

of funds for building improvements Te range of problems

include prompt payment of service charges and maintenance

fees by individual shop owners the appropriate usage of funds

and the need for majority consensus Tis not only involves

funds that can be used for advertisements and promotional

campaigns to increase the profile of the entire shopping

complex but also for more basic building maintenance and

improvement issues Te collective sale avenue presents a

practical exit for owners of such ageing buildings in the mannerof Midlink Plaza and Serangoon Plaza Owners of Te Arcade at

Collyer Quay also made a positive attempt to blaze the en-bloc

trail even though it was unsuccessful

Individual owners to

exit an ageing buildingas well as find and fundalternative premises thatbetter suit the needs of

their businesses

The neighbourhood togenerate more tourist

activity

The buyer

developer tocreate economic

value throughredevelopment

The neighbourhoodto progressively

rejuvenate

Peace Centre amp Peace Mansion Another attempt on the way after two failed collectivesale attempts Out of place ageing building in an area undergoing renewal

Tis Midlink Plaza collective sale provided opportunities for

Te Arcade Failed collective sale at high asking price

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 67

6 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

For example in Orchard Road there is little land from the

Government for fresh development Terefore it will be the

ageing strata-titled malls that have the best potential for

redevelopment in order to contribute to the continued renewal

of Singaporersquos premier shopping belt Instead of waiting for

the proverbial ldquopot of goldrdquo that may or may not materialise

before the building reaches a stage of terminal disrepair strata-

titled shop owners could at least give some consideration tocollective sales as a way to move on and upgrade their business

environment

recurring income as well as other non-tangible benefits Tis

could include personal enjoyment of a property that does not

require the hassle of repeated repairs and peace of mind in a

newer upgraded environment

It is inconceivable that buyers (developers and landlords)

are going to pay anywhere close to outrageous sums for

development land unless it makes economic sense As real

estate development becomes more competitive and intense

with Singaporersquos urban progress developersrsquo appetite for risk

will moderate to become more conservative Sellers need to

attempt to understand and appreciate that developersbuyers

ndash both now and in the foreseeable future ndash require a higher risk

discount to mitigate the magnitude of property development

in modern Singapore Because if the price is fair and in a range

that the developer stands an even chance at a decent profit

activity will return to the collective sales market

And in the end while nobody really wins in a big dramatic

fashion everyone does benefit in a fashion Individuals

obtain proceeds that are generally better than if they were tosell individually and thereby are able to fund a replacement

property that still has a reasonable length of economic and

functional life Buyersdevelopers continue to be able to obtain

the raw material needed for their development business

Communities are routinely renewed as old buildings make way

for functional up-to-date modern ones And on an islandwide

basis even the privately owned areas of Singapore would be in

a continual state of revitalisation without any neighbourhood

becoming jaded with obsolete properties

Te collective sales route is still relevant and can still be

meaningful for owners and developers despite the changes in

the real estate market in the last 20 years What is most needfulin order to harness the usefulness of the collective sales method

with present circumstances is a paradigm shift of perception

and mindsets Sellers must accept within their collective (no

pun intended) mindsets that making a sudden windfall from

chance is a thing best filed in the annals of history Te way

forward for collective sales should be that of a practical method

of disposal for an ageing asset that is past its functional prime

While not everyone can win big allthe time everyone benefits fromrenewalhellip

Sometimes owners do not wish to sell for sentimental reasons

having formed an indelible bond with their property over a longperiod of time And while this attachment is understandable

the other general perceptions motives and mindsets about

the collective sales market will have to change as Singaporersquos

real estate market evolves and matures If the herd mentality

towards collective sales remains one where sellers expect to

strike it rich in one lucky twist of fate the current impasse

between buyers and sellers will continue with no one

benefiting Eventually this will result in a growing number of

buildings developments neighbourhoods and communities

not being able to renew themselves Te standoff will lead to

sellers on one side wanting their windfall and developers on the

other wanting land for their business

Te way ahead will be more practical considered and

reasonable albeit not nearly as exciting nor as intoxicating as it

was in the past

For sellers the collective sales market must come to represent

a method where they can exit their ageing real estate with

a reasonable sum and perhaps some profits on the side

(reasonable profits are no longer defined as earth shattering

bonanzas) Te premium can no longer be as dramatic as that

of the past as plot ratios have not increased in any substantial

fashion in more than 10 years Te collective disposal of an

obsolete and ageing building allows individual sellers to moveon and right size to another property that is more modern

physically functional and that is better yielding in terms of

anglin Shopping Centre Another attempt on the way after previous failed collectivesale exercises at high asking prices

1 According to Strata itles Boards a collective sale is a combined sale by the owners oftwo or more property units to a common purchaser Te most common collective sale isthe sale of all the units in a strata-titled or flatted development to a purchaser Te sale

proceeds are then divided amongst all the unit owners

2 Te ratio of the gross floor area of a development to its site area

3 Te ABSD was introduced by the Government on 8 December 2011 An ABSD ofbetween 3 and 10 is to be paid by certain groups of buyers of residential properties(including land) Te ABSD rates for the purchase of residential properties were laterraised by between five and seven percentage points in January 2013 Besides Singapor-eans buying their first residential property all other groups of residential property buyersare affected by this increase

4 Effective from 29 June 2013 individuals (including sole proprietorships and vehiclesset up by an individual solely to purchase property) will be subject to a otal DebtServicing Ratio (DSR) framework for all property loans granted by financial institu-tions In addition to the 60 cap on a borrowerrsquos total monthly debt payment certainrules relating to the application of the existing Loan-to-Value (LV) limits on housingloans granted by financial institutions were also refined In particular ldquoguarantorsrdquo arenow to be included as co-borrowers and one of the purchasers on the option to purchase

Additionally the income-weighted average (based on gross monthly income) age of allco-borrowers is to be adopted when applying the rules on loan tenure

5 Te pre-agreed minimum price sellers are prepared to sell their properties for

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 77

Copyright copy 2014 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy we cannot guarantee it No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report

About Colliers International

Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services with over 15800professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries A subsidiary of FirstServiceCorporation Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users ownersand investors worldwide including global corporate solutions brokerage property and assetmanagement hotel investment sales and consulting valuation consulting and appraisal servicesmortgage banking and insightful research Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company rankedColliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world

collierscom

485 offices in

63 countries on

6 continentsUnited States 146

Canada 44

Latin America 25

Asia 38

ANZ 148

EMEA 84

US$21billion inannual revenue

146billion square feetunder management

15800professionalsand staff

Contact

Chia Siew Chuin

Director

singaporeresearchcollierscom

Colliers International | Singapore

1 Raffles Place45-00 One Raffles Place

Singapore 046818

TEL +65 6223 2323

FAX +65 6222 4901

RCB No 198105965E

Page 4: Colliers Report - Aug2014

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 47

4 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Tis means that those who bought residences three to four

years ago are soon approaching a point where they can sell

their property without attracting SSD Some might even feel

that a 4 SSD (in their fourth year from acquisition) might

be worthwhile paying the taxman in order to cash out before

private residential prices fall even further so long as they still

enjoy capital appreciation at todayrsquos prices Te attraction of

cashing out now without SSD or with minimal SSD is further

enhanced with an increasingly challenging leasing market For

this wave of potential home sellers cutting and running with

profits in hand might become common in the next 12 months

again providing affected en-bloc sellers with a wide variety

of reasonably new ready-to-move in choices in a variety of

locations all with likely discounts thrown in for good measure to

facilitate the sale

A unit holder in an ageing residential development that has

the potential to go down the collective sale route could and

should consider all these factors and if the mathematics make

financial sense it might very well be the practical decision to

dispose of an ageing functionally obsolete asset that requires

a burgeoning maintenance bill Sweetening a collective sale by

lowering the reserve price and hence drawing developers backinto the en-bloc arena might just be the most balanced and

sensible course as an exit strategy for home owners of aged

properties in such times

Commercial buildings get old toohellip

And why should this principle of using the collective sales

method as an exit strategy not also be applicable for

commercial properties After all commercial properties also

get old sometimes at a seemingly faster rate with modern shiny

new shopping malls and grade A office buildings taking shape

all over Singapore

recent peak in 3Q 2013 before the market cooling measures

had an impactful restraining influence on price With the

price index correcting by 32 between 3Q 2013 and 2Q

2014 residential prices are expected to moderate downwards

throughout the rest of 2014 with this trend continuing into

2015 and 2016 in light of the projected record number of new

home completions during these two years Some 21948 new

homes are expected to be completed in 2015 while another23876 units are expected to be completed in 2016 Sellers of

residential developments in the midst of the collective sales

process might well adopt a siege mentality and abandon any

notion of going the en-bloc route until times are better

Notwithstanding the impending supply of new private homes

increasing vacancy and easing rentals might be further

exacerbated by another inevitability In February 2010 the

Government imposed a sellerrsquos stamp duty (SSD) on sellers

who had purchased residential properties from 20 February

2010 and disposed of them within one year of acquisition Te

SSD time frame for disposal was later extended to within three

years of acquisition by August 2010 and again extended oncemore to four years by January 2011

Presently the SSD rates over four years are

Percentage of price or market value whicheveris higher

Holding period

However this very instinctive knee-jerk pull back just because

market prices are lower might not be the best course of action

Sure sellers have to market their projects at lower reserve

prices But with the general residential market weakening and

prices expected to fall further replacement units are likely to

become more affordable in the coming months If the need to

sell collectively at high prices was meant to mitigate the soaring

prices of replacement units in the last five years then by the

same token if sellers are willing to factor in a discount in their

price expectations in order to attract developers back into the

collective sales market so that they are able to dispose of their

older properties they might just be able to find more than

affordable replacement opportunities in a softening market

Depending on the mathematics of each individual householdrsquos

decisions a family might possibly gain as much profit (if not

more) by selling low and then buying an even more affordable

replacement unit in a downtrend market than one who is

attempting to collectively sell high in order to keep pace with

rising prices in a buoyant market

Could such a situation be mere fantasy and wishful thinking

Not likely After all with more new homes being completed

and the Government keeping stricter control on the size of the

foreign worker population and immigration private residential

property vacancy rates have started to creep up From 51 in

1Q 2013 private residential property vacancy rates have been

inching upwards to 71 by 2Q 2014 the first time the 70 level

has been breached since 1Q 2006 more than eight years ago As

vacancy rates increase private residential property rents have

gone the opposite direction with the URA Private Residential

Property Rental Index falling by 18 from 3Q 2013 to 2Q 2014

1 year

16

2 years

12

3 years

8

4 years

4

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 57

5 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Owners of offices retail stores medical suites or a combination

of these types of properties in either a strata-titled single-use

or mixed-use development might also wish to consider the en-

bloc route for similar reasons of practical disposal and renewal

Commercial users of strata-titled buildings sometimes are

reluctant to agree to a collective sale citing reasons of legacy

where their clients and customers will still extend their

patronage due to the familiarity of the location and the building

no matter how old or decrepit the property becomes However

locational goodwill is more pertinent for strata-titled property

owners of retail shops which are more location sensitive

than office and medical suite owners Businesses and clinics

relocate regularly with comparatively less impact compared

to retail shops as the brand or reputation of these businesses

and medical practitioners play a more important role than

an existing goodwill associated with a building or location

in supporting their business so long they do not relocate to

inaccessible remote areas

Terefore strata-titled property owners of commercialbuildings would need to also consider that a buildingrsquos lifespan

is finite and everything falls apart with time and neglect A

point will eventually be reached when the building services

mechanical electrical other utilities and finishes will one day

become obsolete with the resolute passing of time Despite any

ownerrsquos sentimental attachment to a place of business practical

functionality will one day overwhelm whatever locational

goodwill a building enjoys in the form of a loyal customer

base Such sentiment can also be dislodged by the often

capricious vagaries of fate as circumstances change and former

fundamentals are rendered moot with countrywide progress

and societal evolution Again the collective sales route offers a

practical way out

Te office and retail owners of the former Midlink Plaza

successfully disposed of the ageing commercial building

in 2011 with the new owner redeveloping the site into a

hotel Te strategic sale consolidation under a single owner

and redevelopment with a modern and updated use that is

complementary to the locality has benefited not only the sellers

but also the buyerdeveloper and the neighbourhood

In the same vein other strata-titled buildings especially in the

central areas can also harness the collective sale route Strata-

titled retail buildings have a tendency to be characterised by a

lack of tenant-mix control Individual owners will let or sell to

the highest paying lessee or buyerinvestor with little regard

as to how the incoming entityrsquos business is going to impact the

other tenants in the building Te increase in incompatible

trades sometimes side by side can potentially increase the

level of conflict among neighbours and create a disjointed

disharmony of unlikely trades within the shopping complex

Tis dissonance could eventually affect public perception of

the mall as a whole where deferential customer goodwill in the

past might turn to a grudging negative avoidance in the future

Sometimes the different and conflicting agendas can also prove

detrimental to the physical building itself especially in the use

of funds for building improvements Te range of problems

include prompt payment of service charges and maintenance

fees by individual shop owners the appropriate usage of funds

and the need for majority consensus Tis not only involves

funds that can be used for advertisements and promotional

campaigns to increase the profile of the entire shopping

complex but also for more basic building maintenance and

improvement issues Te collective sale avenue presents a

practical exit for owners of such ageing buildings in the mannerof Midlink Plaza and Serangoon Plaza Owners of Te Arcade at

Collyer Quay also made a positive attempt to blaze the en-bloc

trail even though it was unsuccessful

Individual owners to

exit an ageing buildingas well as find and fundalternative premises thatbetter suit the needs of

their businesses

The neighbourhood togenerate more tourist

activity

The buyer

developer tocreate economic

value throughredevelopment

The neighbourhoodto progressively

rejuvenate

Peace Centre amp Peace Mansion Another attempt on the way after two failed collectivesale attempts Out of place ageing building in an area undergoing renewal

Tis Midlink Plaza collective sale provided opportunities for

Te Arcade Failed collective sale at high asking price

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 67

6 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

For example in Orchard Road there is little land from the

Government for fresh development Terefore it will be the

ageing strata-titled malls that have the best potential for

redevelopment in order to contribute to the continued renewal

of Singaporersquos premier shopping belt Instead of waiting for

the proverbial ldquopot of goldrdquo that may or may not materialise

before the building reaches a stage of terminal disrepair strata-

titled shop owners could at least give some consideration tocollective sales as a way to move on and upgrade their business

environment

recurring income as well as other non-tangible benefits Tis

could include personal enjoyment of a property that does not

require the hassle of repeated repairs and peace of mind in a

newer upgraded environment

It is inconceivable that buyers (developers and landlords)

are going to pay anywhere close to outrageous sums for

development land unless it makes economic sense As real

estate development becomes more competitive and intense

with Singaporersquos urban progress developersrsquo appetite for risk

will moderate to become more conservative Sellers need to

attempt to understand and appreciate that developersbuyers

ndash both now and in the foreseeable future ndash require a higher risk

discount to mitigate the magnitude of property development

in modern Singapore Because if the price is fair and in a range

that the developer stands an even chance at a decent profit

activity will return to the collective sales market

And in the end while nobody really wins in a big dramatic

fashion everyone does benefit in a fashion Individuals

obtain proceeds that are generally better than if they were tosell individually and thereby are able to fund a replacement

property that still has a reasonable length of economic and

functional life Buyersdevelopers continue to be able to obtain

the raw material needed for their development business

Communities are routinely renewed as old buildings make way

for functional up-to-date modern ones And on an islandwide

basis even the privately owned areas of Singapore would be in

a continual state of revitalisation without any neighbourhood

becoming jaded with obsolete properties

Te collective sales route is still relevant and can still be

meaningful for owners and developers despite the changes in

the real estate market in the last 20 years What is most needfulin order to harness the usefulness of the collective sales method

with present circumstances is a paradigm shift of perception

and mindsets Sellers must accept within their collective (no

pun intended) mindsets that making a sudden windfall from

chance is a thing best filed in the annals of history Te way

forward for collective sales should be that of a practical method

of disposal for an ageing asset that is past its functional prime

While not everyone can win big allthe time everyone benefits fromrenewalhellip

Sometimes owners do not wish to sell for sentimental reasons

having formed an indelible bond with their property over a longperiod of time And while this attachment is understandable

the other general perceptions motives and mindsets about

the collective sales market will have to change as Singaporersquos

real estate market evolves and matures If the herd mentality

towards collective sales remains one where sellers expect to

strike it rich in one lucky twist of fate the current impasse

between buyers and sellers will continue with no one

benefiting Eventually this will result in a growing number of

buildings developments neighbourhoods and communities

not being able to renew themselves Te standoff will lead to

sellers on one side wanting their windfall and developers on the

other wanting land for their business

Te way ahead will be more practical considered and

reasonable albeit not nearly as exciting nor as intoxicating as it

was in the past

For sellers the collective sales market must come to represent

a method where they can exit their ageing real estate with

a reasonable sum and perhaps some profits on the side

(reasonable profits are no longer defined as earth shattering

bonanzas) Te premium can no longer be as dramatic as that

of the past as plot ratios have not increased in any substantial

fashion in more than 10 years Te collective disposal of an

obsolete and ageing building allows individual sellers to moveon and right size to another property that is more modern

physically functional and that is better yielding in terms of

anglin Shopping Centre Another attempt on the way after previous failed collectivesale exercises at high asking prices

1 According to Strata itles Boards a collective sale is a combined sale by the owners oftwo or more property units to a common purchaser Te most common collective sale isthe sale of all the units in a strata-titled or flatted development to a purchaser Te sale

proceeds are then divided amongst all the unit owners

2 Te ratio of the gross floor area of a development to its site area

3 Te ABSD was introduced by the Government on 8 December 2011 An ABSD ofbetween 3 and 10 is to be paid by certain groups of buyers of residential properties(including land) Te ABSD rates for the purchase of residential properties were laterraised by between five and seven percentage points in January 2013 Besides Singapor-eans buying their first residential property all other groups of residential property buyersare affected by this increase

4 Effective from 29 June 2013 individuals (including sole proprietorships and vehiclesset up by an individual solely to purchase property) will be subject to a otal DebtServicing Ratio (DSR) framework for all property loans granted by financial institu-tions In addition to the 60 cap on a borrowerrsquos total monthly debt payment certainrules relating to the application of the existing Loan-to-Value (LV) limits on housingloans granted by financial institutions were also refined In particular ldquoguarantorsrdquo arenow to be included as co-borrowers and one of the purchasers on the option to purchase

Additionally the income-weighted average (based on gross monthly income) age of allco-borrowers is to be adopted when applying the rules on loan tenure

5 Te pre-agreed minimum price sellers are prepared to sell their properties for

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 77

Copyright copy 2014 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy we cannot guarantee it No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report

About Colliers International

Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services with over 15800professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries A subsidiary of FirstServiceCorporation Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users ownersand investors worldwide including global corporate solutions brokerage property and assetmanagement hotel investment sales and consulting valuation consulting and appraisal servicesmortgage banking and insightful research Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company rankedColliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world

collierscom

485 offices in

63 countries on

6 continentsUnited States 146

Canada 44

Latin America 25

Asia 38

ANZ 148

EMEA 84

US$21billion inannual revenue

146billion square feetunder management

15800professionalsand staff

Contact

Chia Siew Chuin

Director

singaporeresearchcollierscom

Colliers International | Singapore

1 Raffles Place45-00 One Raffles Place

Singapore 046818

TEL +65 6223 2323

FAX +65 6222 4901

RCB No 198105965E

Page 5: Colliers Report - Aug2014

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 57

5 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

Owners of offices retail stores medical suites or a combination

of these types of properties in either a strata-titled single-use

or mixed-use development might also wish to consider the en-

bloc route for similar reasons of practical disposal and renewal

Commercial users of strata-titled buildings sometimes are

reluctant to agree to a collective sale citing reasons of legacy

where their clients and customers will still extend their

patronage due to the familiarity of the location and the building

no matter how old or decrepit the property becomes However

locational goodwill is more pertinent for strata-titled property

owners of retail shops which are more location sensitive

than office and medical suite owners Businesses and clinics

relocate regularly with comparatively less impact compared

to retail shops as the brand or reputation of these businesses

and medical practitioners play a more important role than

an existing goodwill associated with a building or location

in supporting their business so long they do not relocate to

inaccessible remote areas

Terefore strata-titled property owners of commercialbuildings would need to also consider that a buildingrsquos lifespan

is finite and everything falls apart with time and neglect A

point will eventually be reached when the building services

mechanical electrical other utilities and finishes will one day

become obsolete with the resolute passing of time Despite any

ownerrsquos sentimental attachment to a place of business practical

functionality will one day overwhelm whatever locational

goodwill a building enjoys in the form of a loyal customer

base Such sentiment can also be dislodged by the often

capricious vagaries of fate as circumstances change and former

fundamentals are rendered moot with countrywide progress

and societal evolution Again the collective sales route offers a

practical way out

Te office and retail owners of the former Midlink Plaza

successfully disposed of the ageing commercial building

in 2011 with the new owner redeveloping the site into a

hotel Te strategic sale consolidation under a single owner

and redevelopment with a modern and updated use that is

complementary to the locality has benefited not only the sellers

but also the buyerdeveloper and the neighbourhood

In the same vein other strata-titled buildings especially in the

central areas can also harness the collective sale route Strata-

titled retail buildings have a tendency to be characterised by a

lack of tenant-mix control Individual owners will let or sell to

the highest paying lessee or buyerinvestor with little regard

as to how the incoming entityrsquos business is going to impact the

other tenants in the building Te increase in incompatible

trades sometimes side by side can potentially increase the

level of conflict among neighbours and create a disjointed

disharmony of unlikely trades within the shopping complex

Tis dissonance could eventually affect public perception of

the mall as a whole where deferential customer goodwill in the

past might turn to a grudging negative avoidance in the future

Sometimes the different and conflicting agendas can also prove

detrimental to the physical building itself especially in the use

of funds for building improvements Te range of problems

include prompt payment of service charges and maintenance

fees by individual shop owners the appropriate usage of funds

and the need for majority consensus Tis not only involves

funds that can be used for advertisements and promotional

campaigns to increase the profile of the entire shopping

complex but also for more basic building maintenance and

improvement issues Te collective sale avenue presents a

practical exit for owners of such ageing buildings in the mannerof Midlink Plaza and Serangoon Plaza Owners of Te Arcade at

Collyer Quay also made a positive attempt to blaze the en-bloc

trail even though it was unsuccessful

Individual owners to

exit an ageing buildingas well as find and fundalternative premises thatbetter suit the needs of

their businesses

The neighbourhood togenerate more tourist

activity

The buyer

developer tocreate economic

value throughredevelopment

The neighbourhoodto progressively

rejuvenate

Peace Centre amp Peace Mansion Another attempt on the way after two failed collectivesale attempts Out of place ageing building in an area undergoing renewal

Tis Midlink Plaza collective sale provided opportunities for

Te Arcade Failed collective sale at high asking price

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 67

6 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

For example in Orchard Road there is little land from the

Government for fresh development Terefore it will be the

ageing strata-titled malls that have the best potential for

redevelopment in order to contribute to the continued renewal

of Singaporersquos premier shopping belt Instead of waiting for

the proverbial ldquopot of goldrdquo that may or may not materialise

before the building reaches a stage of terminal disrepair strata-

titled shop owners could at least give some consideration tocollective sales as a way to move on and upgrade their business

environment

recurring income as well as other non-tangible benefits Tis

could include personal enjoyment of a property that does not

require the hassle of repeated repairs and peace of mind in a

newer upgraded environment

It is inconceivable that buyers (developers and landlords)

are going to pay anywhere close to outrageous sums for

development land unless it makes economic sense As real

estate development becomes more competitive and intense

with Singaporersquos urban progress developersrsquo appetite for risk

will moderate to become more conservative Sellers need to

attempt to understand and appreciate that developersbuyers

ndash both now and in the foreseeable future ndash require a higher risk

discount to mitigate the magnitude of property development

in modern Singapore Because if the price is fair and in a range

that the developer stands an even chance at a decent profit

activity will return to the collective sales market

And in the end while nobody really wins in a big dramatic

fashion everyone does benefit in a fashion Individuals

obtain proceeds that are generally better than if they were tosell individually and thereby are able to fund a replacement

property that still has a reasonable length of economic and

functional life Buyersdevelopers continue to be able to obtain

the raw material needed for their development business

Communities are routinely renewed as old buildings make way

for functional up-to-date modern ones And on an islandwide

basis even the privately owned areas of Singapore would be in

a continual state of revitalisation without any neighbourhood

becoming jaded with obsolete properties

Te collective sales route is still relevant and can still be

meaningful for owners and developers despite the changes in

the real estate market in the last 20 years What is most needfulin order to harness the usefulness of the collective sales method

with present circumstances is a paradigm shift of perception

and mindsets Sellers must accept within their collective (no

pun intended) mindsets that making a sudden windfall from

chance is a thing best filed in the annals of history Te way

forward for collective sales should be that of a practical method

of disposal for an ageing asset that is past its functional prime

While not everyone can win big allthe time everyone benefits fromrenewalhellip

Sometimes owners do not wish to sell for sentimental reasons

having formed an indelible bond with their property over a longperiod of time And while this attachment is understandable

the other general perceptions motives and mindsets about

the collective sales market will have to change as Singaporersquos

real estate market evolves and matures If the herd mentality

towards collective sales remains one where sellers expect to

strike it rich in one lucky twist of fate the current impasse

between buyers and sellers will continue with no one

benefiting Eventually this will result in a growing number of

buildings developments neighbourhoods and communities

not being able to renew themselves Te standoff will lead to

sellers on one side wanting their windfall and developers on the

other wanting land for their business

Te way ahead will be more practical considered and

reasonable albeit not nearly as exciting nor as intoxicating as it

was in the past

For sellers the collective sales market must come to represent

a method where they can exit their ageing real estate with

a reasonable sum and perhaps some profits on the side

(reasonable profits are no longer defined as earth shattering

bonanzas) Te premium can no longer be as dramatic as that

of the past as plot ratios have not increased in any substantial

fashion in more than 10 years Te collective disposal of an

obsolete and ageing building allows individual sellers to moveon and right size to another property that is more modern

physically functional and that is better yielding in terms of

anglin Shopping Centre Another attempt on the way after previous failed collectivesale exercises at high asking prices

1 According to Strata itles Boards a collective sale is a combined sale by the owners oftwo or more property units to a common purchaser Te most common collective sale isthe sale of all the units in a strata-titled or flatted development to a purchaser Te sale

proceeds are then divided amongst all the unit owners

2 Te ratio of the gross floor area of a development to its site area

3 Te ABSD was introduced by the Government on 8 December 2011 An ABSD ofbetween 3 and 10 is to be paid by certain groups of buyers of residential properties(including land) Te ABSD rates for the purchase of residential properties were laterraised by between five and seven percentage points in January 2013 Besides Singapor-eans buying their first residential property all other groups of residential property buyersare affected by this increase

4 Effective from 29 June 2013 individuals (including sole proprietorships and vehiclesset up by an individual solely to purchase property) will be subject to a otal DebtServicing Ratio (DSR) framework for all property loans granted by financial institu-tions In addition to the 60 cap on a borrowerrsquos total monthly debt payment certainrules relating to the application of the existing Loan-to-Value (LV) limits on housingloans granted by financial institutions were also refined In particular ldquoguarantorsrdquo arenow to be included as co-borrowers and one of the purchasers on the option to purchase

Additionally the income-weighted average (based on gross monthly income) age of allco-borrowers is to be adopted when applying the rules on loan tenure

5 Te pre-agreed minimum price sellers are prepared to sell their properties for

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 77

Copyright copy 2014 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy we cannot guarantee it No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report

About Colliers International

Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services with over 15800professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries A subsidiary of FirstServiceCorporation Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users ownersand investors worldwide including global corporate solutions brokerage property and assetmanagement hotel investment sales and consulting valuation consulting and appraisal servicesmortgage banking and insightful research Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company rankedColliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world

collierscom

485 offices in

63 countries on

6 continentsUnited States 146

Canada 44

Latin America 25

Asia 38

ANZ 148

EMEA 84

US$21billion inannual revenue

146billion square feetunder management

15800professionalsand staff

Contact

Chia Siew Chuin

Director

singaporeresearchcollierscom

Colliers International | Singapore

1 Raffles Place45-00 One Raffles Place

Singapore 046818

TEL +65 6223 2323

FAX +65 6222 4901

RCB No 198105965E

Page 6: Colliers Report - Aug2014

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 67

6 Te Collective Sales Market ndash Boom or Bust | August 2014 | Investment | Colliers International

For example in Orchard Road there is little land from the

Government for fresh development Terefore it will be the

ageing strata-titled malls that have the best potential for

redevelopment in order to contribute to the continued renewal

of Singaporersquos premier shopping belt Instead of waiting for

the proverbial ldquopot of goldrdquo that may or may not materialise

before the building reaches a stage of terminal disrepair strata-

titled shop owners could at least give some consideration tocollective sales as a way to move on and upgrade their business

environment

recurring income as well as other non-tangible benefits Tis

could include personal enjoyment of a property that does not

require the hassle of repeated repairs and peace of mind in a

newer upgraded environment

It is inconceivable that buyers (developers and landlords)

are going to pay anywhere close to outrageous sums for

development land unless it makes economic sense As real

estate development becomes more competitive and intense

with Singaporersquos urban progress developersrsquo appetite for risk

will moderate to become more conservative Sellers need to

attempt to understand and appreciate that developersbuyers

ndash both now and in the foreseeable future ndash require a higher risk

discount to mitigate the magnitude of property development

in modern Singapore Because if the price is fair and in a range

that the developer stands an even chance at a decent profit

activity will return to the collective sales market

And in the end while nobody really wins in a big dramatic

fashion everyone does benefit in a fashion Individuals

obtain proceeds that are generally better than if they were tosell individually and thereby are able to fund a replacement

property that still has a reasonable length of economic and

functional life Buyersdevelopers continue to be able to obtain

the raw material needed for their development business

Communities are routinely renewed as old buildings make way

for functional up-to-date modern ones And on an islandwide

basis even the privately owned areas of Singapore would be in

a continual state of revitalisation without any neighbourhood

becoming jaded with obsolete properties

Te collective sales route is still relevant and can still be

meaningful for owners and developers despite the changes in

the real estate market in the last 20 years What is most needfulin order to harness the usefulness of the collective sales method

with present circumstances is a paradigm shift of perception

and mindsets Sellers must accept within their collective (no

pun intended) mindsets that making a sudden windfall from

chance is a thing best filed in the annals of history Te way

forward for collective sales should be that of a practical method

of disposal for an ageing asset that is past its functional prime

While not everyone can win big allthe time everyone benefits fromrenewalhellip

Sometimes owners do not wish to sell for sentimental reasons

having formed an indelible bond with their property over a longperiod of time And while this attachment is understandable

the other general perceptions motives and mindsets about

the collective sales market will have to change as Singaporersquos

real estate market evolves and matures If the herd mentality

towards collective sales remains one where sellers expect to

strike it rich in one lucky twist of fate the current impasse

between buyers and sellers will continue with no one

benefiting Eventually this will result in a growing number of

buildings developments neighbourhoods and communities

not being able to renew themselves Te standoff will lead to

sellers on one side wanting their windfall and developers on the

other wanting land for their business

Te way ahead will be more practical considered and

reasonable albeit not nearly as exciting nor as intoxicating as it

was in the past

For sellers the collective sales market must come to represent

a method where they can exit their ageing real estate with

a reasonable sum and perhaps some profits on the side

(reasonable profits are no longer defined as earth shattering

bonanzas) Te premium can no longer be as dramatic as that

of the past as plot ratios have not increased in any substantial

fashion in more than 10 years Te collective disposal of an

obsolete and ageing building allows individual sellers to moveon and right size to another property that is more modern

physically functional and that is better yielding in terms of

anglin Shopping Centre Another attempt on the way after previous failed collectivesale exercises at high asking prices

1 According to Strata itles Boards a collective sale is a combined sale by the owners oftwo or more property units to a common purchaser Te most common collective sale isthe sale of all the units in a strata-titled or flatted development to a purchaser Te sale

proceeds are then divided amongst all the unit owners

2 Te ratio of the gross floor area of a development to its site area

3 Te ABSD was introduced by the Government on 8 December 2011 An ABSD ofbetween 3 and 10 is to be paid by certain groups of buyers of residential properties(including land) Te ABSD rates for the purchase of residential properties were laterraised by between five and seven percentage points in January 2013 Besides Singapor-eans buying their first residential property all other groups of residential property buyersare affected by this increase

4 Effective from 29 June 2013 individuals (including sole proprietorships and vehiclesset up by an individual solely to purchase property) will be subject to a otal DebtServicing Ratio (DSR) framework for all property loans granted by financial institu-tions In addition to the 60 cap on a borrowerrsquos total monthly debt payment certainrules relating to the application of the existing Loan-to-Value (LV) limits on housingloans granted by financial institutions were also refined In particular ldquoguarantorsrdquo arenow to be included as co-borrowers and one of the purchasers on the option to purchase

Additionally the income-weighted average (based on gross monthly income) age of allco-borrowers is to be adopted when applying the rules on loan tenure

5 Te pre-agreed minimum price sellers are prepared to sell their properties for

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 77

Copyright copy 2014 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy we cannot guarantee it No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report

About Colliers International

Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services with over 15800professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries A subsidiary of FirstServiceCorporation Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users ownersand investors worldwide including global corporate solutions brokerage property and assetmanagement hotel investment sales and consulting valuation consulting and appraisal servicesmortgage banking and insightful research Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company rankedColliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world

collierscom

485 offices in

63 countries on

6 continentsUnited States 146

Canada 44

Latin America 25

Asia 38

ANZ 148

EMEA 84

US$21billion inannual revenue

146billion square feetunder management

15800professionalsand staff

Contact

Chia Siew Chuin

Director

singaporeresearchcollierscom

Colliers International | Singapore

1 Raffles Place45-00 One Raffles Place

Singapore 046818

TEL +65 6223 2323

FAX +65 6222 4901

RCB No 198105965E

Page 7: Colliers Report - Aug2014

8112019 Colliers Report - Aug2014

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullcolliers-report-aug2014 77

Copyright copy 2014 Colliers International

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable While every reasonable effort has been made to

ensure its accuracy we cannot guarantee it No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies Readers are encouraged to consult

their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report

About Colliers International

Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services with over 15800professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries A subsidiary of FirstServiceCorporation Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users ownersand investors worldwide including global corporate solutions brokerage property and assetmanagement hotel investment sales and consulting valuation consulting and appraisal servicesmortgage banking and insightful research Te latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company rankedColliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world

collierscom

485 offices in

63 countries on

6 continentsUnited States 146

Canada 44

Latin America 25

Asia 38

ANZ 148

EMEA 84

US$21billion inannual revenue

146billion square feetunder management

15800professionalsand staff

Contact

Chia Siew Chuin

Director

singaporeresearchcollierscom

Colliers International | Singapore

1 Raffles Place45-00 One Raffles Place

Singapore 046818

TEL +65 6223 2323

FAX +65 6222 4901

RCB No 198105965E


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