Colloque « pollutions olfactives »• 08/02/05 • •

Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework

Laurence ROUÏLDirection des Risques chroniques

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Introduction and Context

o INERIS acts as a technical support of the Ministry of Ecology : Support for the definition of national environmental regulations, Participation to European normative work, Participation to European working groups devoted the definition of future policies

o Within the framework of air quality…. Since 1979 : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) :

UN -ECE Since 2002-2003 until july 2005: CAFE program (EU) ; definition of the « Air

Quality Thematic Strategy » defining the main purposes of the future european legislation

Since 2005 until July 2006: Review of the National Emission Ceilings Directive Several working groups (EU and UN-ECE) devoted to air quality monitoring

(measurements) and normative aspects

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

UN-ECE : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, INERIS involvment Organe Exécutif

(représentants des Parties)

Pays chef de file

Centre de Coordination modélisation intégrée

Centres de Coordination• Substances chimiques• Synthèse météo Est et Ouest

PIC = Programme International ConcertéTF = Task Force (équipe spéciale)

Comité d'application

centre de coordination

Groupe de Travail sur les EFFETS

PIC Modélisation et Cartographie

PIC Suivi Intégré sur les écosystèmes

PIC Forêts

TF Santé Humaine

PIC Matériaux

PIC Végétation

PIC Eaux

Organe Directeur EMEP Groupe de Travail STRATEGIES

TF Inventaires d'Emis-sions et prévisions

TF Mesures et Modélisation(transferts atmosphériques)

TF Modélisation Intégrée(Optimisation économique

des scénarios)

Groupe d’experts sur les POPs

Groupe d’experts sur l‘ammoniac

Réseau NEBEI(Economique)

Réseau EGTEI(Technico-économique)

Groupe d’Experts sur les Métaux

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Use of Air quality modelling…..Air quality mapping :

• Acidification/Eutrophisation effects• Ground level ozone• POPs and HM• PM purposes (since 2004)

Trends analysis : •As a complementary tool of measurement stations

Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) :

• Evaluation of the environmental and health effects of Air Quality Policies with respect to their cost• Sources/receptor matrices calculations all over Europe• Uncertainties analysis

EMEP (MSC-West) and RAINS (IIASA) models are the « official »tools in the European framework

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

French contribution for AQ modelling

o To check the EMEP results for base cases (current situation) but also for emission reduction scenario runs (2010-2020) through models intercomparison exercises

TFMM intercomparison project (TNO) : comparison against observations City-Delta project (CAFE) : downscaling purposes Eurodelta Project (TFMM) : source/receptor matrices evaluation

o To help to define alternative emission reduction policies Efficiency of the national emission ceilings approach? Relevance of sectoral approach? Geographical heterogeneity

o To contribute to the development of European tools See City-Delta consequences

CHIMERE is used since 2001 by INERIS to develop the french expertise and involvment on the modelling aspects….

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

TFMM intercomparison exercise - 2003 Organized by the TNO (NL) Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km modelling. Models involved : EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), DEHM

(D), CHIMERE (F)Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-NMSE O3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

S0

01

S0

06

S0

15

S0

21

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41

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48

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58

S0

66

S0

75

S0

83

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91

S1

02

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09

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14

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21

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27

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32

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39

S1

45

S1

53

S1

60

CHIMERE

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-Corrélation O3

Resultats O3….0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1CHIMERE

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

BE

BE

BE

CH

CH

CH

CH

CZ

CZ

CZ

CZ

DE

DE

DE

DE

DE

DE

DE

DE

UK

NL

NL

NL

NL

CHIMERE0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CHIMERE

1:1 line

PM10 (a) corrélations (b) scatter plots/observations

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

CITY-DELTA exercise Organized by IIASA and JRC (Ispra) for the CAFE program

Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and 5km*5km local modelling.

Base case and emission reducion scenarios

Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F) to model the situation over Paris, Milan Prague and Berlin areas

Consequences:

Model intercomparison over cities areas

Evaluation of the robustness of the modelling approach for regulatory purposes

Statistical definition of « urban signals », for PPM2.5, to be implemented in RAINS as a correction of regional EMEP results over cities areas

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

EURODELTA exercise

Organized by the TFMM and MSC-W

Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and sources/receptor matrices computations

Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F)

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Sensitive areas - Ozone (2000-2020)

UKItalyBeneluxSpainBig Cities

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

NOx total deposition:

- « hot spots » computed with MATCH

- Lower values for LOTOS

-CHIMERE and EMEP very similar

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

CHIMERE - EMEP

O3 - 2020 + Italian reduction

NOx scen

VOC scen

Differences from the « base case » transposed to the others

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Further applications : french analysis of emission reduction policies

Looking for new emission reduction hypothesis (2010-2020), as an alternative solution to national emission ceilings…

French runs made with CHIMERE

….Compared to results given by « EMEP-Unified »

Sectoral approach : cooperation with CITEPA and economists team

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Pollutants : SO2, NOx, COV, NH3

Référence : 2000

CLE : Current Legislation Emissions ; IIASA (Autriche)GOT + NEC : Goteborg Protocol outside EUOPTINEC : french emission projections for 2010 (CITEPA)

Example : National scenarios for 2010

SO2 NOx COV NH3

2000

CLE

Optinec

GOT + NEC

654 1441 1726 784

400 858 1100 791

461 990 953 857

375 810 1050 780

(ktonnes)

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

Mean of daily ozone peaks…. Consequences for a 2003 year like

180-190 g/m3

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CHIMERE Workshop• •

nb d'heures cumulées de dépassement de 120 micg/m3

0200000400000600000800000

1000000

base

S1=Eff.

Com

.

S2 =

S1+tra

f

S3=S1+

ind

S4 =

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rtS11

S21 S31 S41

120 micg/m3

Nb d'heures de dépassement des seuils 180 et 240 mic/m3

02000400060008000

10000120001400016000

base

S1=Eff.

Com

.

S2 =

S1+traf

S3=S1+

ind

S4 =

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S11

S21 S31 S41

180 micg/m3

240 micg/m3

nb d'heures de dépassement des seuils 180 et 240 micg/m3 hors cas de base

0500

10001500200025003000

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Com

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S1+tra

f

S3=S1+

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S4 =

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S21 S31 S41

Série1

Série2

Could a sectoral approachbe efficient?….