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Commercial Aerospace Industry Update 1H 2015
Key Themes
Industry Trends
Mergers & Acquisitions Activity
Public Company Data
Segment Spotlight: Aerospace Fasteners
Passenger Growth Driving the Industry Global air travel increased 5.9% in 2014, largely due to increasing leisure and business travel in countries experiencing wealth creation—most notably China, India, the Middle East and other Asia-Pacific countries. The trend has continued in 2015, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) advancing 6.3% through the first four months of the year, compared to the prior year period.
Aircraft Demand Remains High Commercial aircraft orders, deliveries and order backlog reached all-time highs in 2014, as demand for global air travel increased, airline utilization rates improved and obsolete and fuel inefficient aircraft were replaced. Although the rate of growth is slowing somewhat in 2015, the long term forecasts for commercial aircraft production remain extremely positive.
Strategic Consolidation Continues Aerospace and defense industry participants have been consistently active in recent years. Through the first six months of 2015 there were 54 transactions closed with US targets—the most in the last five years and 15% above the mean for that period.
Key Themes
Report Contents
The commercial aviation industry enjoyed an outstanding year in 2014. Total passenger traffic as measured by revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) increased nearly 6%, new large commercial aircraft units produced grew in excess of 6%, passenger load factors reached 80% and airlines’ profits exceeded $20 billion.
Increasing global demand for air travel has been the primary catalyst for the industry’s impressive performance in recent years. Total passenger traffic grew more than 70% over the past 10 years, increasing from 1.9 billion passengers carried in 2004 to 3.2 billion in 2014.
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
2 July 2015
Industry Trends
Growth Continues After Outstanding 2014
This increase has been fueled by the addition of more routes, favorable shifts in demographics and more affordable ticket prices, but the primary driver has been increased
leisure and business travel in countries experiencing wealth creation—most notably China, India, the Middle East and other Asia-Pacific countries.
Chart 1: Air Passengers Carried, 2004 – 2014
Source: IATA
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Total passenger traffic grew 70% over the last ten years
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
3 July 2015
The US, currently the largest air market by a wide margin, is expected to contribute the second largest number of origin-destination (O-D) passenger trips over the period from 2014-2034, but will only generate a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.25%. In contrast, the
four markets predicted to generate the most growth—India, Indonesia, China and Brazil—are forecasted to generate annual growth rates from 5.0% to in excess of 6.5% over the same period.
Historical growth in aircraft passenger travel has been remarkably shock resistant and has materially outpaced global GDP growth. From 1958-2014, RPK grew at an annual growth rate of 6.7% and weathered a number of dramatic events that could have reasonably resulted in a significant downturn in air travel. Over the same time period, global GDP achieved a more tempered annual growth rate of 3.5%.
The trends that drove passenger growth of 5.9% in 2014 (as described earlier) are long term phenomena and are expected to fuel the industry’s growth in excess of global GDP for the next 20 years. Market forecasts for worldwide air travel anticipate RPK growth of 4.6% per year from 2014-2034. Similarly, the number of O-D passenger trips is expected to increase by 2.3-5.0 billion, representing growth of 1.8x–2.8x current levels.
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Chart 2: Revenue Passenger Kilometers, 1958-2034F
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2015-2034, ICAO
RPK is expected to increase from 6.1 billion in 2014 to more than 15 billion in 2034
Chart 3: Drivers of Passenger Growth for Select Countries, 2014-2034 (%CAGR)
4 July 2015
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics
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6.00%
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Living Standards Population & Demographics Travel Cost Net Growth
As was the case in 2014, the primary driving force behind the forecasted growth in air travel through 2034 is improving living standards. This is particularly true for developing countries, as the number of trips per capita increases disproportionately
with increased earnings. There is a pronounced difference in the number of trips per year per capita by income category: 0.04 for low incomes, 0.29 for middle incomes, and 1.48 for high incomes.
Improved living standards driving future growth
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
The commercial aerospace production and supply base has also benefitted from the robust macroeconomic and demographic trends driving the industry. Deliveries of new aircraft units grew in excess of 6% in 2014, as airlines sought to address aging fleets, replace obsolete aircraft with next-
generation fuel-efficient aircraft, and cope with increased passenger traffic. Deliveries of new units from OEMs and current order backlogs are at record levels. As of June 30, unfulfilled order backlog for Airbus and Boeing were 6,430 and 5,689 units, respectively.
5 July 2015
New Aircraft Demand Remains High
Chart 4: Gross Orders, Net Orders and Deliveries, 2003 – 2014
Source: Boeing and Airbus Company Websites
One element fueling the growth in demand for new aircraft in recent years was the airlines’ need to address the material increase in fuel costs as a percentage of total operating costs, which had risen from an average of 14% in 2001 to 31% in 2013. However, with the dramatic reduction in the jet fuel spot price beginning mid-2014—prices as of July 3, 2015 are down 40.2% over the prior year—the cost pressures for airlines were somewhat
alleviated, reducing the urgency to replace inefficient aircraft. While the strong pace of new deliveries growth continues in 2015—deliveries were up 6.2% through the first six months of the year—net orders are down 4.4% over the same time period, partly as a result of the decline in fuel prices. Growth for the balance of 2015 is expected to slow, with a rate closer to 3% than the nearly 6% experienced in 2014 and the first half of 2015.
Jet fuel spot prices in July 2015 are down 40% over the prior year
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Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
6 July 2015
Chart 5: Daily US Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price, July 1, 2011 – July 1, 2015
Source: US Energy Information Administration (USEIA)
Despite the minor drag on new orders in 2015 that has resulted primarily from declining fuel prices, long term forecasts remain very robust for new unit demand. Currently, the global commercial (passenger and freighter) airplane fleet consists of 21,600 aircraft. By 2034 this figure is expected to more than double, with an estimated 43,560 units in 2034. Achieving this figure will require new aircraft on the order of 38,000 units to be produced over the next 20 years, which would result in annual production levels more than 25% greater than that of 2014. It is estimated that 40% of the fleet in service at that time will be operating in the Asia-Pacific region.
While the strong market demand will help the smaller OEM players generate excellent growth in the future, Boeing and Airbus are expected to retain their clear cut market leadership positions. On a combined basis, they are expected to book more than 85% of the $5.6 trillion of delivery value of the world’s jet aircraft through this period. The remaining share should be captured by the other major competitors, namely Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut and Mitsubishi.
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To achieve forecasted fleet levels for 2034, nearly 38,000 new units will have to be delivered over the next 20 years
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
7
8 July 2015
Strategic Consolidation Activity Continues
Mergers & Acquisitions Activity
Merger and acquisition activity levels have been remarkably consistent in the aerospace and defense industry over the last five years. In each year during the period from 2010-2014 between 98 and 108 transactions closed involving US targets. Activity in 2015, however, may show a marked increase over these totals. The number of transactions closed in 1H 2015 was greater than any
comparable period in the last five years. The 54 transactions closed is 15% greater than the mean number of transactions recorded in first six months of the past five years. If the second half shows even greater activity than the first—as it has the last five years—we could see a transaction total approaching 125 deals.
More A&D transactions were completed in 1H 2015 than in the first half of any of the prior five years
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
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Chart 6: Aerospace & Defense M&A Transactions Closed with US Targets, 2010 – 1H 2015
2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2012
Source: S&P Capital IQ
General economic and sector-specific conditions are fueling the industry’s healthy M&A activity, including:
Low interest rates mitigating the benefits to holding cash and making acquisitions more economical;
Weak GDP growth and constrained defense spending driving companies to seek growth outside of purely organic initiatives;
Need for private equity groups to invest the significant funds raised but not yet invested;
Aggressive debt capital support of M&A transactions by commercial banks and non-bank lenders; and
Strategic positioning in advance of healthy growth in the commercial aerospace sector.
9 July 2015
Transactions
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
Chart 7: Select Aerospace & Defense M&A Transactions, 1H 2015
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Acquirer Target Target Description
Astronics Corporation
(NasdaqGS:ATRO)
(East Aurora, New York)
Armstrong Aerospace, Inc.
(Itasca, Illinois)
Provides engineering, des ign, and manufacturing
services related to antenna radomes protection,
power solutions , and fl ight enterta inment,
communication and navigation systems
GKN plc (LSE:GKN)
(Redditch, United Kingdom)
Sheets Manufacturing Inc.
(Camarillo, California)
Manufactures a i rcraft engine and nacel le
components , including spinners , ta i l cones , and
bul let, pressure seam and ducting assembl ies
H-D Advanced Manufacturing
Company
(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)
Firs tmark Corporation
(Richmond, Virginia)
Des igns , manufactures and sel l s precis ion
electronic, electromagnetic and mechanica l
components and sub-assembl ies
H-D Advanced Manufacturing
Company
(Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)
Precis ion Aero Corporation
(Troy, Ohio)
Manufactures close tolerance machined
components for commercia l and mi l i tary a i rcraft,
and land based transportation systems
Industria l Growth Partners
(San Francisco, California)
FMH Aerospace Corp.
(Irvine, California)
Manufactures fl ight-cri tica l engineered
components and assembl ies
ITT Corporation (NYSE:ITT)
(White Plains, New York)
Hartzel l Aerospace Group
(Valencia, California)
Manufactures noise attenuation products , freeze
protection products , and ice protection products
Loar Group, Inc.
(New York, New York)
SAF Industries , LLC
(Naugatuck, Connecticut)
Manufactures aerospace hydraul ic, pneumatic,
mechanica l , and electromechanica l components
for a i rcraft manufacturers
Rol ler Bearing Company of
America , Inc.
(Fairfield, Connecticut)
Sargent Aerospace & Defense
(Tucson, Arizona) ; Avborne Accessory
(Miami, Florida) ; and Sonic
Industries (Torrance, California)
Manufacture precis ion-engineered components
and fasteners , and provide repair and overhaul
services
Shimtech Industries Limited
(Middlesex, United Kingdom)
Angeles Compos ite Technologies ,
Inc.
(Port Angeles, Washington)
Manufactures and suppl ies advanced s tructura l
compos ite assembl ies and components
TransDigm Group Incorporated
(NYSE:TDG)
(Cleveland, Ohio)
Aerospace Bus iness of
Pexco LLC
(Yakima, Washington)
Manufactures extruded plastic interior parts for
commercia l aerospace appl ications
TransDigm Group Incorporated
(NYSE:TDG)
(Cleveland, Ohio)
Tela i r International GmbH
(Germany); Nordisk Aviation
Products a .s . (Norway) ; and AAR
Cargo Systems (Wood Dale, Illinois)
Manufacture mi l i tary mobi l i ty systems and
equipment, a i r cargo pal lets and conta iners , and
on-board baggage and cargo handl ing systems
for wide and narrow body a i rcraft
The InterOcean Aerospace Index (IAI) grew 2.7% over the first half of 2015, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which grew at 0.2% over the same time period. When looking back over the past 12 months, however, the S&P Index grew at 5.25% compared to a decline of 1.79% for the IAI. The IAI experienced a meaningful drop in the
latter half of 2014 due to concerns surrounding the global economy, the strength of the energy industry and the potential of a widespread Ebola outbreak. Since the trough in mid-October, however, the IAI has outgained the S&P 500 Index, with an increase of 11.23% versus the S&P’s increase of 10.77%.
10 July 2015
Performance and Valuations
2.73%
0.24%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00% InterOcean Aerospace Index (IAI)S&P 500 Index (^SPX)
Chart 8: InterOcean Aerospace Index (IAI) vs. S&P Index First Six Months of 2015
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Chart 9: InterOcean Aerospace Index (IAI) vs. S&P Index Trailing 12 Months through June 30, 2015
2.73%
0.24%
2.73%
0.24%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00% InterOcean Aerospace Index (IAI)S&P 500 Index (^SPX)
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
5.25%
-1.79%
The InterOcean Aerospace Index (IAI) includes the following companies: Airbus Group SE (ENXTPA:AIR), Air Industries Group (AMEX:AIRI), Barnes Group Inc. (NYSE:B), B/E Aerospace Inc. (NasdaqGS:BEAV), The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA), Bombardier Inc. (TSX:BBD.B), Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW), Ducommun Inc. (NYSE:DCO), Embraer SA (NYSE:ERJ), Esterline Technologies Corp. (NYSE:ESL), GKN plc (LSE:GKN), HEICO Corporation (NYSE:HEI), Heroux-Devtek Inc. (TSX:HRX), Hexcel Corp. (NYSE:HXL), Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON), LMI Aerospace Inc. (NasdaqGS:LMIA), Magellan Aerospace Corp. (TSX:MAL), Meggitt PLC (LSE:MGGT), MTU Aero Engines AG (XTRA:MTX), Precision Castparts Corp. (NYSE:PCP), Rolls Royce Holdings plc (LSE:RR.), Safran SA (ENXTPA:SAF), Senior plc (LSE:SNR), SIFCO Industries Inc. (AMEX:SIF), Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR), Teledyne Technologies Inc. (NYSE:TDY), Thales SA (ENXTPA:HO), TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG), Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE:TGI), United Technologies Corporation (NYSE:UTX), Woodward, Inc. (NasdaqGS:WWD), Zodiac Aerospace (ENXTPA:ZC)
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Public Company Data
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
($ in thousands)
Market Enterprise 1 Year %
Cap Value (EV) Revenue $ % Current Ago Change
Airbus Group SE 51,009$ 48,384$ 64,611$ 5,118$ 8% 9.5x 8.8x 7.1%
Air Industries Group 77 109 66 5 8% 21.4x 13.7x 55.7%
Barnes Group Inc. 2,136 2,571 1,243 274 22% 9.4x 11.4x -17.3%
B/E Aerospace Inc. 5,828 7,688 2,682 474 18% 16.2x 25.8x -37.1%
The Boeing Company 95,927 95,496 94,944 9,479 10% 10.1x 10.8x -7.0%
Bombardier Inc. 4,035 8,973 20,154 1,099 5% 8.2x 11.5x -28.8%
Curtiss-Wright Corporation 3,445 4,195 2,246 408 18% 10.3x 10.3x -0.3%
Ducommun Inc. 284 531 735 69 9% 7.7x 6.9x 11.7%
Embraer SA 5,572 6,653 4,712 564 12% 11.8x 7.2x 64.7%
Esterline Technologies Corp. 2,937 3,619 2,001 328 16% 11.0x 11.1x -0.9%
GKN plc 8,669 9,685 11,060 1,319 12% 7.3x 7.7x -4.8%
HEICO Corporation 3,594 4,044 1,143 276 24% 14.7x 14.7x -0.5%
Heroux-Devtek Inc. 319 382 288 35 12% 10.9x 13.6x -19.5%
Hexcel Corp. 4,793 5,251 1,871 397 21% 13.2x 12.0x 9.9%
Honeywell International Inc. 79,711 80,876 39,362 7,111 18% 11.4x 11.1x 2.8%
LMI Aerospace Inc. 129 406 385 42 11% 9.6x 10.9x -12.5%
Magellan Aerospace Corp. 796 949 680 98 14% 9.7x 8.7x 12.0%
Meggitt PLC 5,740 6,645 2,421 550 23% 12.1x 11.6x 4.3%
MTU Aero Engines AG 4,794 5,835 4,790 563 12% 10.4x 8.5x 22.6%
Precision Castparts Corp. 27,628 31,768 9,897 2,828 29% 11.2x 13.0x -13.3%
Rolls Royce Holdings plc 25,155 24,284 21,407 2,763 13% 8.8x 13.0x -32.3%
Safran SA 28,198 30,703 18,497 2,736 15% 11.2x 10.8x 3.7%
Senior plc 1,893 2,058 1,344 195 14% 10.6x 10.3x 2.6%
SIFCO Industries Inc. 81 94 109 9 9% 10.2x 9.3x 9.5%
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 7,585 7,981 6,813 1,029 15% 7.8x NM NM
Teledyne Technologies Inc. 3,728 4,486 2,386 395 17% 11.4x 11.3x 0.9%
Thales SA 12,544 11,868 15,177 1,553 10% 7.6x 6.3x 21.5%
TransDigm Group Incorporated 11,971 19,181 2,459 1,095 45% 17.5x 14.1x 24.6%
Triumph Group, Inc. 3,252 4,598 3,951 253 6% 18.2x 9.1x 100.8%
United Technologies Corporation 98,750 117,114 64,038 12,358 19% 9.5x 11.6x -18.2%
Woodward, Inc. 3,592 4,224 2,041 361 18% 11.7x 12.5x -6.5%
Zodiac Aerospace 8,946 10,531 5,047 652 13% 16.1x 11.3x 42.9%
Group Mean $ 16,035 $ 17,537 $ 12,767 $ 1,701 16% 11.5x 11.2x 6.4%
Group Median $ 4,793 $ 6,240 $ 2,570 $ 512 14% 10.8x 11.1x 2.6%
Current Market Data LTM Company Performance EV/EBITDA Multiple
EBITDA
Company Name
11 July 2015
Source: S&P Capital IQ, as of June 30, 2015
Chart 10: Select Aerospace Public Company Data
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
12 July 2015
While it may be easy to overlook, aerospace fasteners comprise a substantial segment of the industry—one that is currently estimated at $5 billion and that is expected to reach $8 billion by 2020. Projected growth is not only driven by an emerging trend towards large-sized aircraft and the growth in new aircraft production referenced earlier in this document, but also by the associated increase in aircraft maintenance that is expected to fuel a robust aftermarket segment for fasteners in future years. The number of fasteners used in the production of an aircraft is highly dependent on the model being produced, with some models requiring as much as eight times as many
fasteners as others. Overall, however, the volume of fasteners used in modern aircraft production has been declining over the years, which has placed increased importance on a company’s ability to develop new fastening technologies that enhance the safety and efficiency of an aircraft, while reducing the overall cost of manufacturing. Consolidation in this segment is prevalent, and has made the largest companies able to capture even more of the global market share. The global aerospace fastener market is dominated by three companies: Alcoa Fastening Systems, Lisi Group, and Precision Castparts, all of whom have been active acquirers in recent years.
Aerospace Fasteners
Segment Spotlight
The fastener segment of the aerospace industry is expected to reach $8 billion by 2020
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
Chart 11: Select Aerospace Fastener M&A Transactions Since July 2014
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Acquirer Target Target Description
Novaria Group Inc.
(Fort Worth, Texas)
John Hassa l l LLC
(Westbury, New York)
Manufactures custom des igned metal parts and
fasteners for aerospace, defense, automotive,
commercia l , minature, marine, consumer
products , and medica l markets
Novaria Group Inc.
(Fort Worth, Texas)
MacLean Sky L.L.C.
(Commerce, California)
Manufactures fasteners for the aerospace
industry us ing inconel , A286, ti tanium, H-11, and
a l loy s teel
Rol ler Bearing Company of
America, Inc.
(Fairfield, Connecticut)
Avborne Accessory (Miami, Florida);
Sonic Industries (Torrance, California);
Sargent Aerospace & Defense
(Tucson, Arizona); and
Sargent Aerospace Canada (Canada)
Des igns , develops , assembles and
manufactures complex metal l ic components ;
manufactures fasteners ; and provides repair and
overhaul services to the commercia l and mi l i tary
aviation industry
TriMas Corporation
(Bloomfield Hills, Michigan)
ALLFast Fastening Systems
(City of Industry, California)
Manufactures and sel l s sol id and bl ind rivets ,
bl ind bolts , and automated insta l lation tools for
the aerospace industry
13 July 2015
The collective equity performance of public companies that manufacture or distribute fasteners followed the same general trend as those in the aerospace market over the past twelve months. Following a material
decline in October 2014, the segment has performed well, but has not yet returned to the levels of the prior year. During this period, the mean TEV/EBITDA multiple declined 14.3%.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, as of June 30, 2015
Chart 12: Select Aerospace Fastener Public Company Data
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
($ in thousands)
Market Enterprise 1 Year %
Cap Value (EV) Revenue $ % Current Ago Change
Alcoa Inc. 13,630 23,583 24,332 3,778 16% 6.2x 10.4x -40.3%
B/E Aerospace Inc. 5,828 7,688 2,682 474 18% 16.2x 25.8x -37.1%
Bufab AB (publ) 226 305 281 29 10% 10.5x n/a n/a
Diploma PLC 1,436 1,467 476 90 19% 16.3x 12.5x 30.2%
Handy & Harman Ltd. 374 455 601 55 9% 8.2x 11.8x -30.3%
KLX Inc. 2,328 3,099 1,696 372 22% 8.3x NM NM
Lisi SA 1,477 1,680 1,625 237 15% 7.1x 6.8x 4.8%
Minebea Co. Ltd. 6,178 6,991 4,322 761 18% 9.2x 8.5x 8.1%
National Aerospace Fasteners Corp. 77 95 44 10 23% 9.4x 14.2x -33.6%
Precision Castparts Corp. 27,628 31,768 9,897 2,828 29% 11.2x 13.0x -13.3%
SFS Group AG 2,719 2,638 1,495 267 18% 9.9x n/a n/a
Steel Partners Holdings L.P 486 607 876 124 14% 4.9x 9.6x -48.9%
Trifast plc 225 246 230 23 10% 10.9x 12.0x -9.3%
TriMas Corporation 1,341 1,989 1,500 201 13% 9.9x 11.9x -16.9%
Wesco Aircraft Holdings, Inc. 1,477 2,436 1,563 212 14% 11.5x 15.0x -23.2%
Group Mean $ 4,362 $ 5,670 $ 3,441 $ 631 16% 10.0x 12.6x -17.5%
Group Median $ 1,477 $ 1,989 $ 1,500 $ 212 16% 9.9x 11.9x -20.0%
Current Market Data LTM Company Performance EV/EBITDA Multiple
EBITDA
Company Name
14 July 2015
Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) 2014 Year-End Review and Forecast Airbus Group SE Company website (www.airbus.com) The Boeing Company Company website (www.boeing.com) Long-Term Market Outlook, 2015-2034 Deloitte 2015 Global Aerospace and Defense Sector Financial Performance Study General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) 2014 General Aviation Statistical Databook & 2015 Industry Outlook Global Fastener News Organization website (www.globalfastnernews.com) Global Industry Analysts, Inc. Aerospace Fasteners Market Brief The Global Aerospace Fasteners Market: Trends, Drivers & Projections Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC) at the University of Groningen Historical Statistics for the World Economy Industrial Fasteners Institute (IFI) 2014 Annual Report International Air Transport Association (IATA) Air Passenger Market Analysis, December 2014 Air Passenger Market Analysis, April 2015 Air Passenger Forecasts (joint publication with Tourism Economics) Fuel Price Analysis International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) State of Air Transport 2013 S&P Capital IQ US Energy Information Administration (USEIA) US Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price Historical Data The World Bank Air transport, passengers carried data from website (www.worldbank.org) Air Transport Annual Report 2014 World Development Indicators data from website
Sources
Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
www.terra-alliance.com
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InterOcean works with companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry that manufacture structural parts, interior parts, ground support equipment, and components for engines, auxiliary power units and environmental control systems, among others. Prior clients have possessed a wide range of production capabilities, as well as special processes such as welding, brazing, conventional machining, non-conventional (laser) machining, heat treating, hydroforming, and non-destructive testing. For additional information on this newsletter or InterOcean’s aerospace and defense services, please contact:
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15 July 2015
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Commercial Aerospace Industry Update
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