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Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014
July 2014
Current Market Outlook
2015 Randy Tinseth
Vice President, Marketing June 2015
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Recent market performance, trends 20-year traffic and airplane forecast
Product strategy
Agenda
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NOTE: Annual growth rates (%) and cumulative profit ($B)
Cargo market recovering nicely
Passenger market resilient, growing
Global economic growth rate below average
Airlines managing better than ever before
Since 2010
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Continued strong replacement demand
Market much more diverse, balanced
Growth driven by emerging economies, LCCs
New airplanes, capabilities opening new markets
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20-year traffic and airplane forecast
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Twenty-year traffic and product forecast
All regions of the world • 185 airlines / groups • 63 traffic flows
All jets 30 seats and above • No turbo props • No business jets
Freighters
Scheduled and nonscheduled flying
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Product strategy
Long-range business plan
Suppliers and airline customers
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Accurate
Conservative
Under-forecasted single-aisles
Over-forecasted large and regional jets
Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats
SOURCES: CMO 1995, CMO 2005, ASCEND
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 - 2014
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
1995 - 2014
Medium-term
Long-term
1995 CMO Forecast
2005 CMO Forecast
Actual
Actual
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
reca
Infrastructure Economic growth
Market liberalization
Emerging markets
Fuel price
Airline strategies &
business models
Airplane capabilities Environment
High speed
rail
Current Market Outlook
2015-2034
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
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1991
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1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Resilient, growing market expected to continue 5% long-term growth rate
RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic
RP
Ks
(trill
ions
)
Above
trend
since
2010
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Trade GDP level
GDP per capita Labor force
Network structure Infrastructure
Business model Regulatory environment
Macroeconomics
Value of service
Demand
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
2014 to 2034
3.1% World
economy (GDP)
4.9% Airline traffic
(RPK)
4.7% Cargo traffic (RTK)
Number of airline
passengers 4.0%
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~6% traffic growth (RPKs)
SOURCE: IATA and BCA Analysis
+180 million passengers
+900 more airplanes (passenger)
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0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Market fragmentation drives growth
SOURCE: August OAG Index 1994=1.00
Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets
Average Airplane Size
Air Travel Growth
Wor
ld
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It’s what passengers want, not bigger airplanes
New direct routes
Additional frequencies
Larger airplane size on existing
routes
78% 8%
14%
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Region Airplanes
Airplane deliveries: 38,050 2015 - 2034
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Regional jets 7%
Single- aisle 70%
Small wide-body
13%
Large wide-body
1%
Medium wide-body
9%
2,490
26,730
4,770 540
3,520
New airplane deliveries by region 2015 - 2034
38%
19%
8%
8% 3%
3%
21%
38,050
Asia 14,330 North America 7,890 Europe 7,310 Middle East 3,180 Latin America 3,020 Africa 1,170 C.I.S. 1,150
World Total 38,050
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Region Airplanes
Airplane deliveries: $5.6 trillion 2015 - 2034
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Regional jets 2%
Single- aisle 50%
Small wide-body
22%
Large wide-body
4%
Medium wide-body
22%
$100B
$2,770B
$1,250B
$230B
$1,220B
New airplane values by region 2015 - 2034
39%
19%
13%
6% 3%
3%
17%
$5.6T
Asia $2,200B North America $940B Europe $1,050B Middle East $730B Latin America $350B Africa $160B C.I.S. $140B
World Total $5,570B
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Global fleet will double Units
38,050
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2014 2034
5,510 Retained fleet
16,090 Replacement
42%
21,960 Growth
58%
43,560
21,600
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
70020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
WidebodySingle-aisle
Western jets retired with >90 seats, excluding hull losses
SOURCE: Flight Global Ascend
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
SOURCE: Ascend & Boeing CMO
12%
65%
11% 8%
3% 6%
70%
13%
9% 2%
Large wide-body
Medium wide-body
Single-aisle
Regional jet
Small wide-body
2014
21,600 airplanes
2034
43,560 airplanes
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-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Air cargo market Year-over-year RTK growth
SOURCE: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
New freighter deliveries: 920 2015–2034
Airp
lane u
nits
Market value: $290 billion 2015–2034
Marke
t valu
e
Medium 40-80 tonnes
30% Medium
40-80 tonnes 21%
$60B
Standard <45 tonnes
Large >80 tonnes
79%
$230B
Standard <45 tonnes
Large >80 tonnes
70%
0
50
100
150
200
250
270
650
$0B 0
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2015 to 2034 Freighters
Delivery units
2014 Freighters
1,720
2034 Freighters 2,930
Share of fleet
2,340
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1,020
650
400
270
Large production >80 tonnes Wide-body conversions 40-120 tonnes Medium wide-body production 40-80 tonnes Standard-body conversions <45 tonnes
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Product strategy
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Superior value, efficient market coverage
737-900ER
200
150
100
500
450
400
350
300
250
Seat
s
200
150
100
500
450
400
350
300
250
Seat
s
737-700
737-800
747-8
787-9
777-200ER
777-300ER
787-8 767-300ER
737 MAX 9
737 MAX 8
737 MAX 7
787-9
747-8
787-8
787-10
Current Boeing Future Boeing
777-8X
777-9X
737 MAX 200
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Backlog by value ($B)
Backlog = 5,715 aircraft
Value = $435 billion Model Single- Aisle 45%
Twin- Aisle 54%
747
737
767 787
777 Large 1%
Region L.
America & Africa
Asia Pacific
Leasing, Gov't & BBJ
North America
ME, Central
& S. Asia
China, East & SE Asia
Europe &
Russia
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Strong, growing market being driven by expansion
Single-aisle fuelling forecast
Boeing product strategy is right for today and the future
Things to remember
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For more information, please visit our CMO website:
http://www.boeing.com/cmo