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Commercializing Nanotechnology: Setting Expectations After The Hype Has Gone Chris Hartshorn, Ph.D. Research Director May 28, 2009
Commercializing Nanotechnology: Setting Expectations After The Hype Has Gone
Chris Hartshorn, Ph.D.Research Director
May 28, 2009
2
Agenda
Where does nanotech stand today? What’s the commercial status of nanotech?What’s cleantech’s impact?Outlook
3
Nanotech started off the decade fast…
US$millions
4
…but some high-profile flops have lead to cynicism
5
…and the downturn has hurt some providers
However, nanotech’s growth remains strong
7
Winners & survivors will know the bright spots
…because knowing the landscape is critical in order to make wise decisions
Specifically, winners will understand the value chain – especially where the most profit exist
…and how to separate hype from reality in order to maximize returns
…and will know to exploit global collaborations as nanotech expands internationally
8
Nanomaterials
Nanotechnology value chain for power tools
Nanointermediates Nano‐enabled products
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Where’s the profit?
Nanotechnology value chain for power tools
10
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Profit margin
Nanomaterials Nanointermediates Nano-enabled products
Target nanointermediates for the most profit
11
…especially electronics- and healthcare-based nanointermediates
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Profit margin
Manufacturing and materials Electronics and IT
Healthcare and life sciences Energy and environment
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Agenda
Where does nanotech stand today? What’s the commercial status of nanotech?What’s cleantech’s impact?Outlook
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What will be the return on the investments?
Numerous reportsConflicting forecastsNot comprehensive
“…nanotech expected to grow to $1 trillion by 2014”
“…nanotech forecasted to reach $0.5 trillion by 2015”
“…nanotech will climb to $4 trillion by 2015”
Three triangulated factors can forecast sales
Region•U.S.• Europe•Asia/Pacific• Rest of the world
Value Chain
•Nanomaterials•Nanointermediates•Nano‐enabled products
Sectors
•Manufacturing and materials
• Electronics and IT•Healthcare and life sciences
Year
Sales grow through three distinct phases: initial entry, broadening, and deepening
• 2004-2007: initial entry driven by manufacturing and materials
• Coatings and composite nano-intermediates in sporting goods, clothing, automobiles
2012-2015: new nanotech deepens into product categoriesFuel-based additives and MRAM chips
2008-2011: nanotech broadens into more product categoriesCoatings and composites for airplanes and medical devices
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Stealth initial entry: $147 billion of sales generated in 2007
Up from $19 billion in 2004Naturally dominated by nano-enabled productsNanointermediates – coatings and compositesNanomaterials form the smallest segment – with most revenue generated by ceramic and metal nanoparticles
$678 $9,826
$136,552
Nanomaterials
Nanointermediates
Nano‐enabled products
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The long term promise of nanotech draws the best
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Nanotech broadens during 2008-2011 timeframe
Revenue forecasted to grow from $238 billion to $833 billion for a 54% CAGRAll sectors expected to grow 52%-55% as nanotech broadens into more product categoriesNanointermediates forecasted to grow the most – 60%
$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue(US$
millions)
Manufacturing and materials Electronics and IT Healthcare and life sciences
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Nanotech’s lower priority: Some reasons
Environmental, health, and safety (EHS) issues – cited by 42%
Nanomaterials costs – 35%
Backlash due to lack of iconic breakthroughs – 32%
Unclear market opportunities – 26%
Also, technology immaturity, dissatisfaction with past projects, failure of past investments to pay off
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Momentum is building around nanotech EHS
Published research into nanotech EHS has increased dramatically since 2004 – 64% of all papers since 1980
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$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue(US$
millions)
Manufacturing and materials Electronics and IT Healthcare and life sciences
Nanotech deepens in the 2012-2015 timeframe
Total sales of $1.2 trillion to $3.1 trillion at 39% CAGR Electronics forecasted for the highest growth at 48% CAGRU.S. and Europe expected to continue dominance
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Agenda
Where does nanotech stand today? What’s the commercial status of nanotech?What’s cleantech’s impact?Outlook
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Cleantech is hot, hot, hot
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US$ millions
VC investments Energy and environment share
Cleantech is hot, hot, hot
25
Cleantech is hot, hot, hot
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Publications
Nanotech total Energy and environment share
26
Cleantech is hot, hot, hot
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Patents
Nanotech total Energy and environment share
27
…but returns are cold, cold, cold
28
…but returns are cold, cold, cold
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue(US$
billions)
Emerging nanotech revenue Energy and environment share
29
Nanointermediates still pay off…
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Profit margin
Manufacturing and materials Electronics and IT
Healthcare and life sciences Energy and environment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Share of revenue
Batteries and capacitors Other energy and environment nanointermediatesSolar cells Fuel cellsCatalysts SensorsFilters Fuel additives
…especially energy-storage nanointermediates
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Agenda
Where does nanotech stand today? What’s the commercial status of nanotech?What’s cleantech’s impact?Outlook
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What’s the outlook ?
Global economic force nanotech developers to aim at near-term applications to generate cash
Electronic materials become all the rage
New industry clusters emerge
2009 administration changes in U.S. accelerate regulations
Flood gates open for food and personal care applications
Nanotech overtakes entire industries, and the term “nano” fades from view
