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DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
115
130
145
160
175
190
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
€/1
00 k
g
Evolution of the EU average pig carcass priceClass E & S prices from 1/1/2014
5 yr Avg (09-13) 2013 2014Class E
2014Class S
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
110
125
140
155
170
185
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pri
ce
in
€u
ro /
10
0k
g
Development of the EU average price for pig carcasses
avg 09 - 13 Forec. S Forec. E IT Forec R 2013 2014 S 2014 E
Moy.AnnuelleAvg: 2009- 2013: 156,422011: 153,2 Euro/ 100kg2012: 170,6 ,,2013: 175,5 ,, 2014: 165,9 (E)2014: 171,4 (S)
II/ 2014 S 172,27E 163,22
IV/ 2014 S 173,14E 168,03
I/ 2014 S 165,33E 152,46
III/ 2014 S 179,38E 175,13
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
120,00
130,00
140,00
150,00
160,00
170,00
180,00
190,00
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
weekly pig prices (€/100 kg carcass)(from 2014 average class E+S, before 2013 class E)
EU average 2014 EU average 2009 - 13 EE LT PL LV reference threshold
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
€/p
iece
Evolution of the EU average piglet prices
5 yr avg (09 - 13) 2013 2014
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
50
150
250
350
450
Juil Oct Jan April Juil Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
Euro
/ to
nne
Price of Basic Ingredients 2011 - 2014
Soft wheat (EU)
Barley (EU)
Maïs (EU)
Soja (CAF)
Hulls (EU)
Manioc (CAF)
C.G.F. (CAF)
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
135
165
195
225
|Jan 2013| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |Jan 2014| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |
€uro
/ To
nn
Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2013 & 2014)
01 Nearby
2014 Mar
2014 Jul
2014 Nov
Delivery:
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
160
180
200
220
240
260
| 2013 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | 2014 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun |
€/T
on
n
Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2013 - 2014)
Nearby
2014 Mar
2014 Jun
2014 Aug
Delivery:
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1.500
1.600
1.700
|Jan 2013| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |Jan 2014| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |
Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2013 & 2014)
01 Nearby
2014 May
2014 Jul
2014 Sep
Delivery:
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
€uro
/ T (Cere
al & S
oja
mix
/ Com
pound feed)
Euro
/ 10
0kg (
pig
carc
ase
)
Development of producer margins (pig price over feed costs)
Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9)
Carcase price
average Margin 2008 - 2012 (45,21€/100kg)
Cereals and Soja mix
Compound feed
NB:Comp. Feed 2014 = Forecast as from January.Cereal mix and Pig carcase price: 2014. = forecast as from March 2014.
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
55,0
75,0
95,0
115,0
135,0
155,0
175,0
195,0
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
Weekly average Pigprices 2009 - 2014 in Euro/ 100kg carcase
EU, Brazil and the US
EU
US
Braz. avg
CDN Ontario
EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
70
95
120
145
170
195
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
€uro
/ 10
0kg
Pigprices and forecasts in US and EUEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat
US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
EU
US
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
EU trade of PIG products4
6.1
35
59
.72
0
71
.93
7
51
.64
1
63
.80
0
55
.91
8
56
.07
7
54
.49
9
72
.27
6
22
.61
2
21
.73
0
32
.36
8
43
.17
9
59
.83
8
51
.78
9
44
.19
1
36
.08
7
37
.11
8
33
.84
5
5.8
49
88
1.0
11
94
3.4
05
1.0
83
.23
0
1.2
38
.13
8
1.5
56
.96
1
1.5
45
.90
7
1.3
31
.80
8
1.5
26
.56
3
1.5
09
.30
2
1.7
80
.56
8
1.9
38
.45
5
2.0
89
.36
3
1.9
10
.90
8
2.5
69
.08
7
2.3
86
.24
5
2.6
27
.62
1 3.1
33
.57
0
3.0
72
.45
7
3.1
00
.88
4
43
7.8
54
0
250.000
500.000
750.000
1.000.000
1.250.000
1.500.000
1.750.000
2.000.000
2.250.000
2.500.000
2.750.000
3.000.000
3.250.000
3.500.000
3.750.000
4.000.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Jan-Feb 14
To
nn
es
pro
du
ct
we
igh
t
.
IMPORTS EXPORTS
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
Compared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-Feb 13
Sw itzerland 17.480 39,6% 18.723 51,9% 19.491 52,5% 17.495 51,7% 3.185 54% -4%
Serbia 859 2% 2.397 7% 2.391 6% 3.094 9% 720 12% 71%
Norw ay 1.911 4% 1.530 4% 1.986 5% 1.995 6% 420 7% 28%
Chile 11.724 27% 7.734 21% 7.467 20% 5.398 16% 416 7% -61%
Russia 450 1% 529 1% 270 1% 362 1% 319 5%
Thailand 284 1% 341 1% 219 1% 848 3% 242 4% +++
Other 11.482 26% 4.833 13% 5.293 14% 4.654 14% 547 9%
EXTRA EU 25/27 44.191 36.087 37.118 33.845 5.849
% change - 18% + 3% - 9% - 4,4%
2010 2011 2012 Jan-Feb 142013
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
3.535 3.310 3.185
348 420 720
793 846789
6.177 6.1205.849
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13 Jan-Feb 14
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28(Tonnes prod. weight)
Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile Russia Other origins
2.523 3.1982.411
222266
417
2.651
2.415
2.750
10.427
11.422
9.926
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13 Jan-Feb 14
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)
Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile Russia Other origins
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
0
1.500
3.000
4.500
6.000
|Jan07
2007 |Jan08
2008 |Jan09
2009 |Jan10
2010 |Jan11
2011 |Jan12
2012 |Jan13
2013 |Jan14
in Tonnes (product weight)
Imports of selected PIG products
FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
Compared to
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Feb 13
China 207.352 7,9% 393.819 12,6% 586.441 19,1% 665.495 21,5% 113.244 25,9% - 6%
Hong Kong 426.697 16,2% 539.363 17,2% 381.069 12,4% 387.126 12,5% 60.242 13,8% + 8%
Japan 223.637 8,5% 231.282 7,4% 230.792 7,5% 231.601 7,5% 46.919 10,7% + 23%
Russia 808.663 30,8% 847.498 27,0% 745.014 24,2% 747.233 24,1% 44.391 10,1% - 59%
South Korea 100.790 3,8% 193.909 6,2% 137.220 4,5% 103.055 3,3% 28.147 6,4% + 72%
Philippines 89.407 3,4% 96.880 3,1% 73.412 2,4% 101.167 3,3% 24.168 5,5% + 58%
USA 58.736 2,2% 59.548 1,9% 60.824 2,0% 60.260 1,9% 11.284 2,6% + 21%
Angola 44.399 1,7% 61.559 2,0% 59.210 1,9% 61.273 2,0% 10.557 2,4% + 20%
Ukraine 137.736 5,2% 113.962 3,6% 161.599 5,3% 122.679 4,0% 8.939 2,0%
Ivory Coast 22.153 0,8% 20.420 0,7% 26.468 0,9% 35.125 1,1% 7.901 1,8% + 21%
Australia 50.373 1,9% 44.340 1,4% 47.270 1,5% 44.509 1,4% 6.735 1,5% - 21%
Serbia 11.169 0,4% 13.096 0,4% 25.310 0,8% 32.140 1,0% 6.010 1,4% + 65%
Other 446.509 17,0% 517.894 14,5% 537.828 13,7% 509.222 14,4% 69.316 15,8%
Extra EU28 2.627.621 3.133.570 3.072.457 3.100.884 437.854
% change + 19% - 2% + 1% - 8,8%
2010 2011 2012 Jan-Feb 142013
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
71.042119.859 113.244
81.00755.607 60.242
36.86638.012 46.919
133.781 108.83344.391
153.667141.416
144.911
509.967480.120
437.854
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13 Jan-Feb 14
Tons (pw) .
EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)
China Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea Other destinations
88.160 155.720 132.060
82.169 84.298
239.803 200.24287.219
320.644306.504
296.177
985.129927.019
828.002
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
Jan-Feb 12 Jan-Feb 13 Jan-Feb 14
in 1,000 EUR .
EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
China Hong Kong Japan Russia South Korea Other destinations
DG AGRI C3 16 April 2014
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
|Jan 07
2007 |Jan 08
2008 |Jan 09
2009 |Jan 10
2010 |Jan 11
2011 |Jan 12
2012 |Jan 13
2013 |Jan 14
in Tonnes (product weight)Exports of selected PIG products
FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS