8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 1/20
December 7, 2010
Bjarne Schieldrop (Chief Commodity Analyst) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson (Commodity Strategist) [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47
SEB Commodities MonthlyHigh prices, but fundamentals point higher
=General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M
• Continued re-stocking of raw materials in China together withimproving consumer demand within the OECD area will benefitcommodity prices into 2011 with broad commodity indices likely toprint new all time highs
•
Continued low interest rates and generous liquidity providessupportive backdrop for commodities in 2011• Chinese monetary tightening likely to move the economy towards
a normalisation rather than an abrupt halt• The outlook is overall bullish but beware of temporary setbacks
due to the current high price levelsEnergy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M
• Our 2011 Brent crude oil average price forecast is adjusted from$80/b to $85/b on an improving growth outlook for 2011 while ouraverage oil price forecast for 2012 remains unchanged at $85/b
• Strengthening in the crude oil backwardation is not yet warranted• Brent crude oil likely to fall back towards the lower eighties as we
move into Q1-11 before eventually gathering strength to rally intothe US driving season
• Saudi Arabia’s official desired oil price range is now $70-90/bIndustrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M
• Global end user demand continues to improve as industrialproduction expands
• Further Chinese counter-inflation measures could temporarilydampen sector sentiment
• Chinese energy saving measures and upcoming restockingstrengthen our bullish view
• Introduction of physical ETPs likely to tighten the physical marketPrecious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M
• Gold is currently an attractive exposure with limited downside dueto high European sovereign debt risk
• Surplus liquidity, welcome neither in the US nor the EMs, isseeking a home, one alternative is gold
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Agricultural commodities remain highly priced and therefore both
tactically and strategically vulnerable• Production is expected to normalize in 2011 and thus prices
should fall back• La Niña related weather disturbances could last until next
summer, triggering temporary rallies in selected commodities• Several agricultural commodities remain very sensitive to
additional production disturbances, e.g. due to low inventory levelsArrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.
THE NEXT COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE PUBLISHED ON FEBRUARY 1
N UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices (price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100) =
708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210
j a n - 0 9
f e b - 0 9
m a r - 0 9
a p r - 0 9
m a j - 0 9
j u n - 0 9 j u l - 0 9
a u g - 0 9
s e p - 0 9
o k t - 0 9
n o v - 0 9
d e c - 0 9
j a n - 1 0
f e b - 1 0
m a r - 1 0
a p r - 1 0
m a j - 1 0
j u n - 1 0 j u l - 1 0
a u g - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
d e c - 1 0
Industrial MetalsPreciousMetalsEnergyAgriculture
=Performance overview (MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
-6-30369
1215182124273033
E q u i t i e s
C o m m o d i t i e s
E n e r g y
I n d u s t r i a l
m e t a l s
P r e c i o u s
m e t a l s
A g r i c u l t u r e
YTD(%) MoM(%)
Winners & Losers last month (closing prices, %) =
-16-12
-8-4048
1216202428
Z i n c
W h e a t
L e a d C o r n
S u g a r T i n
A l u m i n i u m
P l a t i n u m
C o f f e , A r a b i c a
C o c o a
N i c k e l
C O 2 ( E U A )
C o t t o n
S o y b e a n s
C o p p e r G o l d
P o w e r , C o n t .
W T I
B r e n t
U S N a t . G a s
S t e e l
U S H e a t . O i l
U S G a s o l i n e
P a l l a d i u m S i l v e r
P o w e r , N o r d i c
=
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8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
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SEB Commodity Research
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ÉñéÉÅí=íÜÉ=É~êäó=ïáåíÉê=ê~ääóÛë=Öêáé=çå=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=íç=Öê~Çì~ääó=äççëÉå=~ë=ïÉ=ãçîÉ=áåíç=nNJNN=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=Ñêçåí=ãçåíÜ=_êÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=íç= Ñ~ää= Ä~Åâ= áåíç= íÜÉ= äçïÉê= ÉáÖÜíáÉë= ~ë= íÜÉ=ã~êâÉí= Öê~Çì~ääó= ÉóÉë= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ïáåíÉê=ëÉ~ëçåK=^= åÉï=ê~ääó=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÉãÉêÖÉ=~ë=ïÉ=ãçîÉ=íçï~êÇë=íÜÉ=rp=ÇêáîáåÖ=ëÉ~ëçåK=cçê=íÜÉ=êÉãáåÇÉê= çÑ= aÉÅÉãÄÉê= ïÉ= îáÉï= áí= ìåäáâÉäó=íÜ~í= íÜÉ= g~åì~êó= _êÉåí= ÅêìÇÉ= Åçåíê~Åí= ïáää=íê~ÇÉ=ãìÅÜ=~ÄçîÉ=AVRLÄ=~åÇ=îÉêó=ìåäáâÉäó=íÜ~í=áí=ïáää=é~ëë=ANMMLÄK==_êÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ=ê~ääáÉÇ=Äó=åÉ~êäó=TB=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=NM= Ç~óë= çÑ= kçîÉãÄÉêK= bñéÉÅí~íáçåë= çÑ= ÑìêíÜÉê=Ççää~ê= ïÉ~âåÉëë= ÇìÉ= íç= ~= ãìÅÜ= ~åíáÅáé~íÉÇ=ëÉÅçåÇ=êçìåÇ=çÑ=rp=èì~åíáí~íáîÉ=É~ëáåÖ=ï~ë=~å=ìåÇÉêäóáåÖ= Ñ~Åíçê= íÜçìÖÜ= ÄìääáëÜ=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= áåÇáÅ~íçêë= êÉäÉ~ëÉÇ= É~êäó= áå=kçîÉãÄÉê= ïÉêÉ= ãçêÉ= áãéçêí~åíK= `çåíê~êó= íç=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= íÜÉ= rp= fpj=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= áåÇÉñ=êçëÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=NM=ãçåíÜ=äçï=áå=lÅíçÄÉêK=cìêíÜÉêI=rp= åçåJÑ~êã= é~óêçääë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= Äó= ãçêÉ= íÜ~å=~åíáÅáé~íÉÇ=áå=lÅíçÄÉêK=^í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉI=ÖäçÄ~ä=mjfë=êÉJ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=íáãÉ=ëáåÅÉ=^éêáä=~åÇ= `Üáå~Ûë= mjf= êçëÉ= íç=~= éçëíJ^éêáä= ÜáÖÜK=få=
~ÇÇáíáçåI= íÜÉ= ÇçïåíêÉåÇ= áå= rp= Çáëíáää~íÉ=áåîÉåíçêáÉë= ïÜáÅÜ= ÄÉÖ~å= ~êçìåÇ= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ=^ìÖìëí= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ= ëíêçåÖäó= ~í= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ=lÅíçÄÉê=~åÇ=áåíç=kçîÉãÄÉêK=qÜáë=ï~ë=é~êíäó=~=êÉÑäÉÅíáçå=çÑ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=áåÇìëíêá~ä=ÇÉã~åÇ=áå=íÜÉ=rp= Äìí= ~äëç= ~= êÉëìäí= çÑ= rp= Éñéçêíë= íç= bìêçéÉ=E~ÑÑÉÅíÉÇ=Äó=cêÉåÅÜ=êÉÑáåÉêó=ëíêáâÉëF=~åÇ=ëíêçåÖ=ÇáÉëÉä= ÇÉã~åÇ= Ñêçã= `Üáå~K= qÜÉêÉ= áë= åçï= ~=ÇáÉëÉä= ëÜçêí~ÖÉ= áå= íÜ~í= Åçìåíêó= ÑçääçïáåÖ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå= çÑ= éçïÉê= êÉëíêáÅíáçåë= ~ë= ~= ä~ëí=ãáåìíÉ=ÉÑÑçêí=áå=nQJNM=íç=~ÅÜáÉîÉ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=OMMSJOMNM= ÉåÉêÖó= ÉÑÑáÅáÉåÅó= í~êÖÉíëI= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ=
ÉÅçåçãóÛë= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= ëÉÅíçê= êÉëçêíáåÖ= íç=ÇáÉëÉä=ÖÉåÉê~íçêë=íç= éêçÇìÅÉ=íÜÉáê=çïå= éçïÉêK=^åçíÜÉê= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ÉîÉåí= áå= É~êäó= kçîÉãÄÉê=
íÜ~í= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= ÅçåíêáÄìíÉÇ= íç= ÇêáîáåÖ= _êÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= éêáÅÉë= íçï~êÇë= AVMLÄ= ï~ë= p~ìÇá=^ê~Äá~Ûë=ÇÉÅáëáçå=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áíë=í~êÖÉí=çáä=éêáÅÉ=ê~åÖÉ=Ñêçã=ATMJUMLÄ=íç=ATMJVMLÄK==qÜÉ= ê~ääó= Å~ãÉ= íç= ~å= ~Äêìéí= ÉåÇ= çå= NO=kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë= ê~ãé~åí= `ÜáåÉëÉ= áåÑä~íáçå=éêçãéíÉÇ= íÜÉ= ëí~êí= çÑ= íÜÉ= ÅçìåíêóÛë= ãçåÉí~êó=íáÖÜíÉåáåÖ= ÅóÅäÉ=~åÇ= éÉêáéÜÉê~ä=bìêçéÉ~å=ÇÉÄí=áëëìÉë=êÉJÉãÉêÖÉÇ=ïáíÜ=fêÉä~åÇ=~í=íÜÉ=ÑçêÉÑêçåí=çÑ= ã~êâÉí= ÅçåÅÉêåëK= ^ÑíÉê=Ü~îáåÖ= äçëí=~ää= É~êäó=ãçåíÜ=Ö~áåë= _êÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ=êÉÄçìåÇÉÇ=~í= áíë= ÉåÇ=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ê~éáÇ=Ççää~ê=~ééêÉÅá~íáçå=~åÇ=ÉëÅ~ä~íáåÖ=br=ÇÉÄí= ïçêêáÉëK=`êìÇÉ=çáä= ï~ë= ÇêáîÉå= ÜáÖÜÉê=ã~áåäó= Äó= ~= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= áãéêçîÉãÉåí= áå= rp=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= áåÇáÅ~íçêë= áåÅäìÇáåÖ= Ñ~ääáåÖ= àçÄäÉëë=Åä~áãëI=ÄÉííÉê=ÅçåëìãÉê=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ= êÉí~áä= ë~äÉëK= få= ~ÇÇáíáçå= ÅçäÇ= ëéÉääë= áå=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=rp=ÑçêíáÑáÉÇ=~=éêÉJïáåíÉê=ÉåÉêÖó=éìêÅÜ~ëáåÖ=ê~ääóK==
Monthly global demand estimates = 2010
(mb/d)Revision
(kb/d)2011
(mb/d)Revision
(kb/d)IEA 87.30 +380 88.50 +350EIA 86.33 +270 87.77 +330
OPEC 85.78 +190 86.95 +310=däçÄ~ä=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇ=Éëíáã~íÉë=Ñçê=OMNM=~åÇ=OMNN= ïÉêÉ= êÉîáëÉÇ= ÜáÖÜÉê= áå= ~ää= íÜêÉÉ= çÑ=kçîÉãÄÉêÛë= çáä= ã~êâÉí= êÉéçêíëK= få= ÅçåëÉÅìíáîÉ=êÉéçêíë= íÜÉ= rp= aÉé~êíãÉåí= çÑ= båÉêÖó= EalbF=~åÇ= lmb`= êÉîáëÉÇ= íÜÉáê= OMNM= EHOTM= âÄLÇ= íç=USKPP= ãÄLÇX= HNVM= âÄLÇ= íç= URKTU= ãÄLÇ=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóF= ~åÇ= OMNN= EHPPM= âÄLÇ= íç= UTKTT=ãÄLÇX= HPNM= âÄLÇ= íç=USKVR= ãÄLÇ= êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóF=ÇÉã~åÇ= ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë= ÜáÖÜÉê=ÇìÉ= íç= ëíêçåÖÉê= íÜ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=lb`a=ÇÉã~åÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=ìéï~êÇ= êÉîáëáçå= çÅÅìêêÉÇ= áå= íÜÉ= ãçëí=áãéçêí~åí= çÑ= íÜÉ= íÜêÉÉ= ãçåíÜäó= êÉéçêíëI= íÜ~í=éìÄäáëÜÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=fb^I=ïÜáÅÜ=ê~áëÉÇ=áíë=OMNM=~åÇ=OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= HPUM= âÄLÇ= íç=UTKPM=ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= HPRM= âÄLÇ= íç= UUKRM= ãÄLÇ=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäó= ïáíÜ= ÅçêêÉëéçåÇáåÖ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉë= Ñçê=lb`a= ~åÇ= åçåJlb`a= ÇÉã~åÇ= çÑ= NPM= âÄLÇ=EOMNMF=~åÇ=NMM=âÄLÇ=EOMNNF=~åÇ=ORM=âÄLÇ=EO~åÇ=OMNNF= êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóK= bëíáã~íÉÇ=`ÜáåÉëÉ= Ö~ë=~åÇ=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=nQJNM=íç=nNJNN=ï~ë=êÉîáëÉÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê= ÇìÉ= íç= íÜÉ= ìëÉ= çÑ= ÇáÉëÉä= ÖÉåÉê~íçêë= íç=ÅçãéÉåë~íÉ=Ñçê=ÉäÉÅíêáÅáíó=ëÜçêí~ÖÉë=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíJäÉÇ=ÅäçëìêÉë=çÑ=Åç~ä=ÑáêÉÇ=éçïÉê=éä~åíëK= qçí~ä= lb`a= çáä= áåÇìëíêó= ëíçÅâë= ÑÉää= Äó=QOKU=ãÄ=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=íÜÉáê=ä~êÖÉëí=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=ëáåÅÉ=aÉÅÉãÄÉê= OMMV= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ëáåÅÉ= j~êÅÜ= íÜáë=
óÉ~êK=^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=lb`a=áåÇìëíêó=çáä=ëíçÅâë=ÑÉää=íç= RVKV= Ç~óë= çÑ= ÅçåëìãéíáçåK= rp= ÅêìÇÉ= çáä=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
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SEB Commodity Research
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mçëáíáçåÉÇ= çå= íçé= çÑ= áíë= óÉ~êäó= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉí=ïáää=éêçÄ~Ääó= ÅçåíáåìÉ=ÉáíÜÉê=ëáÇÉï~óë=çê= ÜáÖÜÉê=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉêK=qÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ãçîÉ=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=j~ó=ÜáÖÜ=~äëç=ëìÖÖÉëíë=~=ãçêÉ=ÄìääáëÜ=íçåÉK=fÑ=íÜÉ=ãçîÉ=ÅçåíáåìÉë=ÜáÖÜÉê=íÜÉ=ä~íÉ=NVVMë=íêÉåÇ=äáåÉI=ÅìêêÉåíäó=êìååáåÖ= àìëí= ÄÉäçï= ANMMLÄI= ïáää= ÄÉ= í~êÖÉíÉÇK= ^= aÉÅÉãÄÉê=ÅäçëÉ=ÄÉäçï=AUOKQMLÄ=ÅçåÑáêãë=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=íç=~=ÅçêêÉÅíáçå=äçïÉêK== kçêÇáÅ=mçïÉê ==
^ÑíÉê=ëÉîÉê~ä= ãçåíÜë= çÑ=ëí~ÄäÉ= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë= ~åÇ=
ê~åÖÉ= íê~ÇáåÖ= Ñçêï~êÇë= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉí= ãçîÉÇ=ëÜ~êéäó= ÜáÖÜÉê= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë= ~= ëíêçåÖ= ÜáÖÜ=éêÉëëìêÉ= ÑçêãÉÇ= çîÉê= pÅ~åÇáå~îá~= ÄêáåÖáåÖ=ïáíÜ= áí= îÉêó= ÅçäÇ= Çêó= ïÉ~íÜÉê= ïáíÜ=íÉãéÉê~íìêÉë=NMJNO=ÇÉÖêÉÉë=ÄÉäçï=åçêã~äK=péçí=éêáÅÉë= êçëÉ= ê~éáÇäó= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ëÉÅçåÇ= Ü~äÑ= çÑ=kçîÉãÄÉê=~ë=Åçåëìãéíáçå=êçëÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=~äêÉ~Çó=ëíê~áåÉÇ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=ÑìêíÜÉêK==péçí= éêáÅÉë= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ëÉííäÉÇ= ~í= bro=RQKTULjtÜ= ÑçääçïáåÖ= ~= ëíêçåÖ= ìéíêÉåÇ= ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=ÜáÖÜ=J=bro=TQKTVLjtÜ=Ó=çÅÅìêêáåÖ=çå=PM= kçîÉãÄÉêK=qÜÉ=pïÉÇáëÜ=éêáÅÉ=~êÉ~=çåÅÉ=~Ö~áå= ëÉííäÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉ= íÜÉ= ëóëíÉã= éêáÅÉ= ~í= bro=RSKOSLjtÜK= `çåîÉêëÉäóI= dÉêã~å= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë=ëí~ÄáäáëÉÇ=ïÉää=ÄÉäçï=íÜÉáê=kçêÇáÅ=ÅçìåíÉêé~êíë=~í=bro=QUKRPLjtÜK==qÜÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ= ã~êâÉí= Ü~Ç= ~äêÉ~Çó= ã~ÇÉ= ê~éáÇ=Ö~áåë= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë=ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë=áåÇáÅ~íÉÇ=ÅçäÇ=ïÉ~íÜÉêK=nNJNN=êçëÉ= PRB= Ñêçã= bro= RMKQRLjtÜ= íç= bro=STKVRLjtÜ= çîÉê= NO= íê~ÇáåÖ= Ç~óëK= fãéäáÉÇ=îçä~íáäáíáÉë= ãçîÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉ= SRB= ~åÇ= ä~êÖÉ=îçäìãÉë= ïÉêÉ= íê~ÇÉÇ= íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= éêáÅÉ= ê~ääóK=`ìêêÉåíäóI=nNJNN=íê~ÇÉë=~ÄçîÉ=bro=TOLjtÜI=~=åÉï= êÉÅçêÇ= ÜáÖÜK= ^í= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= íáãÉI= voJNN=íê~ÇÉë= ~êçìåÇ= bro= RTKRLjtÜK= få= kçîÉãÄÉêI=íÜÉ= kçêÇáÅ= Ñêçåí= óÉ~ê= EvoJNNF= íê~ÇÉÇ= ~í= ~=éêÉãáìã= íç= íÜÉ= dÉêã~å= ã~êâÉí= Ñçê= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí=íáãÉ=áå=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êëK==kçêÇáÅ= êÉÖáçå~ä= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë= êÉã~áå= îÉêó= ÄìääáëÜK= ^äíÜçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= åìÅäÉ~ê= ëáíì~íáçå= áë= Ñ~ê= ÄÉííÉê=íÜÉå=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=íÜÉ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áë=ãçêÉ=ëíê~áåÉÇK=^í=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=çÑ= ïêáíáåÖI=~=íçí~ä=çÑ=åáåÉ=çìí=çÑ=éä~ååÉÇ=íÉå=pïÉÇáëÜ=êÉ~Åíçêë=~êÉ=çåäáåÉ=
ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉäÉîÉåíÜ=ëÅÜÉÇìäÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=Ä~Åâ=çåäáåÉ=~í=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=aÉÅÉãÄÉêK=qÜÉ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=
áë=~í=JQQ=qtÜ=~í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=~ë=ïÉ=Ñ~ÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÅçäÇÉëí=ëí~êí=íç=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=áå=OM=óÉ~êëK=tÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= ÜóÇêç= Ä~ä~åÅÉ= íç=ïÉ~âÉå=ÑìêíÜÉê= áÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçäÇ=ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÅçåíáåìÉëK==
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 5/20
SEB Commodity Research
Q
CRUDE OIL=
Crude oil price (NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing) =
102030405060708090
100110120130
140150
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
NYMEX WTIICEBrent
=
US crude oil inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data) =
300
310
320
330
340
350
360370
380
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2005-2009 avg.2009
2010
=
OIL PRODUCTS=
Gasoline and heating oil prices (NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing) =
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
NYMEX GasolineNYMEX Heating oil
=
Gasoline and distillate inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data) =
110120130140
150160170180190200210220230240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.Gasoline 2010
Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.Distillate fuel oil 2010
=
POWER=
Nordic power price (Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing) =
20253035404550556065707580
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Continental power price (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing) =
202530354045505560657075
80859095
2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 6/20
SEB Commodity Research
R
CO 2 NATURAL GAS=
EUA price (ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
US natural gas prices (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing) =
0123456789
101112131415
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
==
FUTURES CURVES=
WTI (NYMEX, $/b)=
8182
8384
85868788899091
j a n - 1 1
a p r - 1 1 j u l - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
a p r - 1 2 j u l - 1 2
o k t - 1 2
j a n - 1 3
a p r - 1 3 j u l - 1 3
o k t - 1 3
j a n - 1 4
a p r - 1 4 j u l - 1 4
o k t - 1 4
j a n - 1 5
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
=
Brent (ICE, $/b) =
8384
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
j a n - 1 1
a p r - 1 1 j u l - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
a p r - 1 2 j u l - 1 2
o k t - 1 2
j a n - 1 3
a p r - 1 3 j u l - 1 3
o k t - 1 3
j a n - 1 4
a p r - 1 4 j u l - 1 4
o k t - 1 4
j a n - 1 5
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
==
Heating oil (NYMEX, ¢/gal)=
220224228232
236240244248252
256260
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
=
US natural gas (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
d e c - 1 0
a p r - 1 1
a u g - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
a p r - 1 2
a u g - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
a p r - 1 3
a u g - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
a p r - 1 4
a u g - 1 4
d e c - 1 4
a p r - 1 5
a u g - 1 5
d e c - 1 5
a p r - 1 6
a u g - 1 6
d e c - 1 6
a p r - 1 7
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 7/20
SEB Commodity Research
S
=INDUSTRIAL METALS==
fåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë= êÉã~áå=ëìééçêíáîÉK=oáëáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ=áë=ÄÉÅçãáåÖ=ãçêÉ=ïáÇÉëéêÉ~Ç=ïáíÜ=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÉåÇ=ìëÉê=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=áå=íÜÉ=lb`a=~åÇ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=êçÄìëí=áåíÉêÉëí=Ñêçã=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ã~êâÉíëK= eçïÉîÉêI= ïÉ= ëíáää= ëÉÉ=ëÅçéÉ= Ñçê= ÑìêíÜÉê= áãéêçîÉãÉåíë= ïáíÜ= lb`a=áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= ÇÉã~åÇ= êÉã~áåáåÖ= ÄÉäçï=éêÉJÅêáëáë=äÉîÉäëK=däçÄ~ä=áåÇìëíêá~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= áãéêçîÉ= íÜçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= éçëíJÅêáëáë=Äççã=áë=åçï=çîÉêI=Ü~îáåÖ=ÄÉÉå=ëìÅÅÉÉÇÉÇ=Äó=~= éÉêáçÇ= çÑ= ëçÑí= ÇÉã~åÇ= ~åÇ= É~ëáÉê= éêáÅÉëK=^äíÜçìÖÜ= ÑìêíÜÉê= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ÉÑÑçêíë= íç= íáÖÜíÉå=ãçåÉí~êó= éçäáÅó= ~êÉ= äáâÉäó= ÖáîÉå= áíë= ÜáÖÜ=áåÑä~íáçå= EÅìêêÉåíäó=QKQB= óLóF= íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó= áë=Ñ~ê= Ñêçã= çìí= çÑ= ÅçåíêçäK= fåÇÉÉÇI= `Üáå~= áë=áãéäÉãÉåíáåÖ= ~= Ñ~áêäó= åçêã~ä= Éñáí= ëíê~íÉÖó=
~ÑíÉê= ëìÅÅÉëëÑìääó= ëíáãìä~íáåÖ= íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãóI=êÉëíçêáåÖ=~å=áãéêÉëëáîÉ=ÖêçïíÜ= ê~íÉK= `ÜáåÉëÉ=ÉÑÑçêíë= íç= íáÖÜíÉå= ãçåÉí~êó= ÅçåÇáíáçåë= ~êÉ=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= çåäó= äáâÉäó= íç= Ü~îÉ= íÉãéçê~êó=ÄÉ~êáëÜ= ÉÑÑÉÅíë= çå= íÜÉ= áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë=ã~êâÉíK= `çåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜÉ= Ñäçï= çÑ= êÉÅÉåí=éçëáíáîÉ= ÉÅçåçãáÅ= êÉäÉ~ëÉë= Ñêçã= íÜÉ= rpI= áíë=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí= áë= ëìééçêíáîÉ= Ñçê= áåÇìëíêá~ä=ãÉí~äëK=fåÇìëíêá~ä=~Åíáîáíó=áå=ÅÉåíê~ä=bìêçéÉ=áë=~äëç= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáåÖ= éêçîáÇáåÖ= ÑìêíÜÉê= ëìééçêíK=tÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄí=Åêáëáë= áå=éÉêáéÜÉê~ä=bìêçéÉ=áë=ÅêÉ~íáåÖ=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ÅçåÅÉêåë=áå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ã~êâÉíë=ÖÉåÉê~ääóI=áí=Ü~ë=~äëç=ÅçåíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~=ïÉ~âÉê= Éìêç= ïÜáÅÜ= ÖÉåÉê~íÉë= Éñéçêí=çééçêíìåáíáÉë= Ñêçã= ÅÉåíê~ä= bìêçéÉ= íç= ^ëá~I=ëíáãìä~íáåÖ= ÅÉåíê~ä= bìêçéÉ~å= ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~ÅíáîáíóK= eçïÉîÉêI= íÜÉ= ëíêçåÖÉê= Ççää~ê= ÇçÉë=Ü~îÉ=~=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=áåÑäìÉåÅÉ=çå=áåÇìëíêá~ä=ãÉí~äëK=qÜÉ= í~ÅíáÅ~ä= éáÅíìêÉ= áë= ëäáÖÜíäó= ëìééçêíÉÇ= Äó=íÜÉ= Ñ~Åí= íÜ~í= `ÜáåÉëÉ= áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=êÉã~áå=ëìÄÇìÉÇ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=êÉëí= çÑ= íÜÉ= óÉ~ê= ÇìÉ= íç= ÉåÉêÖó= ë~îáåÖ=ãÉ~ëìêÉëK= få= ~ÇÇáíáçåI= ~= `ÜáåÉëÉ= êÉëíçÅâáåÖ=ÅóÅäÉI=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ä~ëí=áåíç=eNJNNI=Ü~ë=ÄÉÖìåK=qÜÉ= áããáåÉåí= ä~ìåÅÜ= çÑ= éÜóëáÅ~ääó= Ä~ÅâÉÇ=
bñÅÜ~åÖÉ= qê~ÇÉÇ= mêçÇìÅíë= EbqmëF= áë= ~äëç=ëìééçêíáîÉK=tÉ=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=ÄìääáëÜ=îáÉï=çå=íÜÉ=áåÇìëíêá~ä=ãÉí~äë=ëÉÅíçê=ÄçíÜ=í~ÅíáÅ~ääó=~åÇ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ~ääóK= `çééÉê= ~åÇ=~äìãáåáìã= ~êÉ=çìê=éêÉÑÉêêÉÇ=ÉñéçëìêÉë=ïáíÜ=íáÖÜí=ëìééäó=Ñçê=ÅçééÉê= ~åÇ= ÜáÖÜ= éêçÇìÅíáçåë= Åçëíë= Ñçê=~äìãáåáìã=íÜÉ=ã~áå=êÉ~ëçåëK==fåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= çéÉåÉÇ= kçîÉãÄÉê= çå= ~= ÄìääáëÜ=åçíÉI= éìëÜÉÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê= Äó=~= ëçÑíÉê= Ççää~êI=nbO= ëíáãìäìë= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= ~åÇ= ëçäáÇ=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Ç~í~= Ñêçã= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ~åÇ=ÇÉîÉäçéÉÇ= ã~êâÉíë= áå= ÖÉåÉê~äK= eçïÉîÉêI=ëÉåíáãÉåí= èìáÅâäó= íìêåÉÇ= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= ÇìÉ= íç=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= áå= `Üáå~= ~åÇ= bìêçéÉK= få= `Üáå~=
ÅçåÅÉêåë= ÖêÉï= çîÉê= íÜÉ= ÉñíÉåí= íç= ïÜáÅÜ= íÜÉ=`ÜáåÉëÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= ãáÖÜí= ëäçï= ~ë= ~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=íïáÅÉ= ê~áëÉÇ= íÜÉ= êÉëÉêîÉ= êÉèìáêÉãÉåí= ê~íáç= Ñçê=íÜÉ= ÅçìåíêóÛë= Ä~åâë= ~åÇ= ~äëç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íÜÉ=ÇÉéçëáí= ~åÇ= äÉåÇáåÖ= ê~íÉë= íç=ÅçãÄ~í= ÉñÅÉëëáîÉ=äÉåÇáåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ=áåÑä~íáçåK=få=bìêçéÉI=íÜÉ= fêáëÜ= ëáíì~íáçå= ÄÉÅ~ãÉ= ìåëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ=~äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ÉîÉåíì~ä=êÉëÅìÉ=é~Åâ~ÖÉ=Ñ~áäÉÇ=íç=~ää~ó= ã~êâÉí= ÅçåÅÉêåëK= fåëíÉ~Ç= ~ííÉåíáçå=êÉÑçÅìëÉÇ= çå= mçêíìÖ~ä= ~åÇ= pé~áåK= qÜÉ= ã~áå=áãé~Åí= çå= áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= Ñêçã= íÜáë=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí= ï~ë= áåÇáêÉÅí= íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= ëíêçåÖ=Ççää~êK= mêáÅÉë= äÉîÉääÉÇ= çìí= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜK= qÜÉ= ÄÉëí= éÉêÑçêãÉê= áå= íÜÉ=áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~ä= ëÉÅíçê= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ï~ë=ÅçééÉê= EHOKMBFI= ÑçääçïÉÇ= Äó= åáÅâÉä= EHMKPBFI=~äìãáåáìã=EJOKVBFI=íáå=EJQKPBF=~åÇ=äÉ~Ç=EJUKVBFK=qÜÉ=ïçêëí=ï~ë=òáåÅ=EJNOKUBFK==
LME prices and inventories m/m
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
A l u m i n i u m
C o p p e r N i c k e l Z i n c
L e a d T i n S t e e l
Price (%) Inventories(%)
=`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ== ^äìãáåáìã ==
^äìãáåìã=ÅäçëÉÇ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=rpa=OOQOJOQSVLí=áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI=ÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=Ççïå=ëçãÉ=OKVB=~í= rpa= OOTRLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= ÑÉää=ëìÄëí~åíá~ääó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ= ÄÉÑçêÉ= êÉÅçîÉêáåÖ= ëäáÖÜíäóK= `~åÅÉääÉÇ= ï~êê~åíë=
êçëÉ= ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó= Ñêçã= ~å= ~äêÉ~Çó= ÜáÖÜ= äÉîÉä=ERKNBFK=`ÜáåÉëÉ=~äìãáåáìã= êÉëÉêîÉë= Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=êÉäÉ~ëÉÇI= é~êíäó= ÅçãéÉåë~íáåÖ= Ñçê= éêçÇìÅíáçå=Åìíë=ÇìÉ=íç=ÉåÉêÖó=ë~îáåÖ=ãÉ~ëìêÉëK=eçïÉîÉêI=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ã~êâÉí=Éëíáã~íÉë=çåäó=~êçìåÇ=çåÉ=ãáääáçå= íçååÉë= çìí= çÑ= çîÉê= OM= ãí= áåëí~ääÉÇ=Å~é~Åáíó=~êÉ=~ÑÑÉÅíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÉåÉêÖó=Åä~ãéÇçïå=ïÜáäÉ= ~ééêçñáã~íÉäó= íÜêÉÉ= ãáääáçå= íçååÉë= çÑ=åÉï= Å~é~Åáíó= ~êÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= çåäáåÉ= áå= OMNNK= fí= áë=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=ìåäáâÉäó=íÜ~í=`Üáå~=ïáää=ÄÉÅçãÉ=~=åÉí=áãéçêíÉê= çÑ= ~äìãáåáìã= êÉëìäíáåÖ= áå= ~= íáÖÜíÉê=ã~êâÉí= Ä~ä~åÅÉK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~äìãáåáìã= êÉã~áåë=
ïÉää=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=ã~êÖáå~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=Åçëíë=çÑ=~êçìåÇ=rpa=OMMMLí=~åÇ=áë=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëíêçåÖÉê=Å~êÇë= áå= íÜÉ= áåÇìëíêá~ä= ãÉí~äë= ëÉÅíçê= ÇìÉ= íç=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 8/20
SEB Commodity Research
T
äáãáíÉÇ=ÇçïåëáÇÉK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë=ENMNOMOFW= ^äìãáåáìã=ëíáää=íê~ÇÉë=ïáíÜáå=íÜÉ=OMNM=ê~åÖÉK=tÉ=Çç=åçí=ÉñéÉÅí=éêáÅÉë=íç=Éñáí=áí=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= äáâÉäáÜççÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉó= ïáää= Ñ~ää= ÑìêíÜÉê=ïáíÜáå= íÜÉ= ê~åÖÉ= ÖáîÉå= íÜÉ= é~ëí= ãçåíÜÛë= íçéëáÇÉ=ëéáâÉëK=AONMMLí=~ééÉ~êë=~=éçíÉåíá~ä=í~êÖÉíK=
=`çééÉê ==
`çééÉê= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= rpa= UNQMJUURULí= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= OKMB= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~í=rpa= UPSMLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= ã~áåí~áåÉÇ= ~=åçï= åáåÉ= ÅçåëÉÅìíáîÉ= ãçåíÜ= ÇçïåíêÉåÇK=`~åÅÉääÉÇ= ï~êê~åíë= Ü~îÉ= ëíÉ~Çáäó= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íç=VKNBK= qÜÉ= fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä= `çééÉê= píìÇó= dêçìé=Ü~ë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=~=PSP=âí=ÅçééÉê=ã~êâÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ñçê=íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ÉáÖÜí= ãçåíÜë= çÑ= OMNM= ïáíÜ= ÑìêíÜÉê=ÇÉÑáÅáíë= äáâÉäó= ÖçáåÖ= Ñçêï~êÇK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë=
ã~ó= ÄÉÅçãÉ= ä~êÖÉäó= ÇÉéäÉíÉÇ= áå= OMNNK= tÉ~â=`ÜáåÉëÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=áå=lÅíçÄÉê=ï~ë=ä~êÖÉäó=ÇìÉ=íç=å~íáçå~ä=ÜçäáÇ~óë=~åÇ=~=êÉäìÅí~åÅÉ=íç=Äìó=~í=íÜÉ=éêÉî~áäáåÖ= ÜáÖÜ= éêáÅÉK= eçïÉîÉêI= ÅçééÉê= áë= ~=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ~ääó=áãéçêí~åí=ãÉí~ä=Ñçê=`Üáå~=~åÇ=çåÉ=ïÜáÅÜ= íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ïáää= åÉÉÇ= íç= ÅçåíáåìÉ=áãéçêíáåÖ= áå= ä~êÖÉ= îçäìãÉë= êÉÖ~êÇäÉëë= çÑ= íÜÉ=éêáÅÉK= `çééÉê= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= Éåàçó= íÜÉ= ëÉÅíçêÛë=ëíêçåÖÉëí= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äëK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë=ENMNOMOFW=`çééÉê= áë= ëíáää= ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ= ïáíÜ=OMMSLOMMTLOMMU= éÉ~âë= ~í= AUPPRÓUVQMLíK= c~áäÉÇ=kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ííÉãéíë= íç= ãçîÉ= ~ÄçîÉ= éêÉîáçìë= éÉ~âë=áåÇáÅ~íÉ= ~= Ñ~äëÉ= ÄêÉ~â= ~åÇ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= ~å= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=ÇçïåëáÇÉ= ÅçêêÉÅíáçå= êáëâK= ^= éçíÉåíá~ä= ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ÇáîÉêÖÉåÅÉ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=éêáÅÉ=~åÇ=ãçãÉåíìã=áåÇáÅ~íçêë=EÜáÖÜÉê=ÜáÖÜ=áå=éêáÅÉLäçïÉê=ÜáÖÜ=áå=ãçãÉåíìãF=~äëç=íÜêÉ~íÉåë=~=ÅçééÉê=éêáÅÉ=êÉîÉêë~ä=íç=~êçìåÇ=ATRMMLíK== káÅâÉä ==
káÅâÉä= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= rpa= OMUOMJOQSOMLí= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= MKPB= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~í=rpa= OPMRMLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= êÉéçêíÉÇ= ~=ÑçìêíÜ=ÅçåëÉÅìíáîÉ=ÜáÖÜÉê=ãçåíÜäó=ÅäçëÉ=ÇÉëéáíÉ=~= íÉåÇÉåÅó= íç= äÉîÉä= çìíK= `~åÅÉääÉÇ= ï~êê~åíë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= ëìÄëí~åíá~ääó= EQKQBFK= qÜÉ= åáÅâÉä=ÑìíìêÉë= ÅìêîÉ= Ä~Åâï~êÇ~íáçå= ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= áå= kçîÉãÄÉêK= aÉëéáíÉ= êáëáåÖ=áåîÉåíçêáÉëI= åáÅâÉä= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë= Ü~îÉ=áãéêçîÉÇ= ëäáÖÜíäó= ïáíÜ= ÄÉííÉê= ÇÉã~åÇ= çå= íÜÉ=çåÉ= Ü~åÇ=~åÇ= éêÉëëìêÉ=çå= ëìééäáÉë=çÑ= `ÜáåÉëÉ=åáÅâÉä= éáÖ= áêçå= EkmfF= Ñêçã= ÉåÉêÖó= ë~îáåÖ=ãÉ~ëìêÉë= çå= íÜÉ= çíÜÉêK= qÜÉ= ã~êâÉí= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå=ëÅÉéíáÅ~ä=ÅçåÅÉêåáåÖ=íÜÉ=çìíäççâ=Ñçê=åáÅâÉä=ÇìÉ=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=ÑìíìêÉ=ëìééäóK=eçïÉîÉêI=Å~é~Åáíó=Éñé~åëáçå=áë=åçí=óÉí=ÅÉêí~áå=íç=Ñçääçï=íÜÉ=éä~åK=táíÜ= ãçëí= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= Ñ~Åíçêë= ~éé~êÉåíäó=
ÇáëÅçìåíÉÇ= ïÉ= ÜçäÇ= ~= åÉìíê~ä= ëÉÅíçêJêÉä~íáîÉ=îáÉï= çå= åáÅâÉäK= mêáÅÉë= ÄÉäçï= AOMMMMLí= ~êÉ=
ìåäáâÉäóK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= ENMNOMOFW=káÅâÉä= áë=ëíìÅâ=áå=íÜÉ=ãáÇÇäÉ=çÑ=áíë=OMNM=ê~åÖÉ=~åÇ=ïÉ=Ü~îÉ=åçëíêçåÖ= ÇáêÉÅíáçå~ä=îáÉïK= qÜÉ= ÄÉëí= ÑáííáåÖ= é~ííÉêå= áë=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ê~åÖÉ= íê~ÇáåÖ= ~êçìåÇ= íÜÉ= óÉ~ê=~îÉê~ÖÉ= çÑ=AOOORRLíK=låäó= ~= ÇÉÅáëáîÉ=Éñáí=Ñêçã= íÜANTPTRÓOTRVRLí= ê~åÖÉ= ïáää= éêçîáÇÉ= ÇáêÉÅíáçå~ä=
áåéìíK==wáåÅ ==
wáåÅ= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= rpa= OMTUJORUMLí= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= NOKUB= äçïÉê= ~í=rpa= ONNOLíK= ijb= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= äÉîÉääÉÇ= çìí= áå=kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ÑíÉê= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= ëÜ~êéäó= áå= ä~íÉ=lÅíçÄÉê=~åÇ=Ü~îáåÖ=ÄÉÉå=çå=~=êáëáåÖ=íêÉåÇ=ëáåÅÉ=ä~íÉ=OMMTK=`~åÅÉääÉÇ= ï~êê~åíë= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=äçïÉê=EÅìêêÉåíäóW= RKPBFK= lîÉêëìééäóI= ä~ÅâäìëíêÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ= ~åÇ= êáëáåÖ= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= ÅçåíáåìÉ= íç=
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ijb=ëíÉÉä=ÄáääÉíë=ÅäçëÉÇ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=rpa=RNMJRONLí=áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI=ÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=PKVB=ÜáÖÜÉê=~í=rpa= ROMLíK= ^ÑíÉê= ~= AQPRLí= ~ìíìãå= äçï= áå=lÅíçÄÉêI=ëíÉÉä=ÄáääÉíë= àìãéÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ= ARMMLí=äáåÉ= ~í= íÜÉ= îÉêó= ëí~êí= çÑ= kçîÉãÄÉê= ÄÉÑçêÉ=íê~ÇáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=rpa=RNMJROMLí=ê~åÖÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=êÉëí=çÑ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜK= cêçã= É~êäó= lÅíçÄÉê= íÜÉ= ëíÉÉä=Åçåíê~Åí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=Åçëí=éêÉëëìêÉ= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= qpf= `Üáå~= áêçå= çêÉ= éêáÅÉ=Ö~áåáåÖ=ÅäçëÉ=íç=OMB=çîÉê=íÜÉ=éÉêáçÇ=áå=èìÉëíáçå=ïÜÉêÉçÑ= NOKRB= çÅÅìêêÉÇ= áå= kçîÉãÄÉêK= qpf=`Üáå~= áêçå= çêÉ= ÅäçëÉÇ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= ~í= ANSTKULíK=tÉëíÉêå=bìêçéÉ=áë=ëíáää=ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ=ïáíÜ=ÇÉã~åÇ=ïáíÜ= ëÉÖãÉåíÉÇ= çîÉêëìééäó= áå= ëíÉÉä= éêçÇìÅíë=ïÜáäÉ= ëçãÉ= ÜáÖÜ= î~äìÉ= åáÅÜÉ= éêçÇìÅíë= ~êÉ=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅáåÖ=íáÖÜí=ëìééäó=ïáíÜ=äçåÖ=äÉ~Ç=íáãÉëK=qìêâÉó= Ü~ë= ãçîÉÇ= áåíç= ÜáÖÜÉê= ~Åíáîáíó= ~åÇ=êÉëíçÅâáåÖK= mäÉåíó= çÑ= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~äë= Ü~îÉ= ÄÉÉå=ÑäçïáåÖ= íç= qìêâÉó= ~ë= ~= êÉëìäí= ïÜáÅÜ= ~ãçåÖ=çíÜÉê=íÜáåÖë=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëìééçêíáîÉ=Ñçê=bìêçéÉ~å=ëÅê~é= ãÉí~ä= éêáÅÉë= ïáíÜ= bìêçéÉ~å= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=
ëÜêÉÇÇÉÇ= ëÅê~é= Ö~áåáåÖ= ~Äçìí= NPB= çîÉê=kçîÉãÄÉêK=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 9/20
SEB Commodity Research
U
ALUMINIUM=
Aluminium price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Aluminium inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data) =
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
SHFE
COMEX
LME
==
COPPER=
Copper price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Copper inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
SHFE
COMEX
LME
=
NICKEL=
Nickel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =
05000
10000150002000025000300003500040000
450005000055000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Nickel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 10/20
SEB Commodity Research
V
ZINC=
Zinc price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Zinc inventories (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data) =
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
SHFE
LME
=
LEAD=
Lead price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Lead inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
TIN=
Tin price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Tin inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 11/20
SEB Commodity Research
NM
STEEL=
Steel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing) =
250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600625650
j a n - 0 9
m a r - 0 9
m a j - 0 9
j u l - 0 9
s e p - 0 9
n o v - 0 9
j a n - 1 0
m a r - 1 0
m a j - 1 0
j u l - 1 0
s e p - 1 0
n o v - 1 0
=
Steel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data) =
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
j u l - 0 8
o k t - 0 8
j a n - 0 9
a p r - 0 9 j u l - 0 9
o k t - 0 9
j a n - 1 0
a p r - 1 0 j u l - 1 0
o k t - 1 0
=
FUTURES CURVES=
Aluminium (LME, $/t)=
225022752300
2325
23502375240024252450
24752500
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
s e p - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
m a r - 1 4
j u n - 1 4
s e p - 1 4
d e c - 1 4
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
=
Copper (LME, $/t)=
690071007300
7500
7700790081008300850087008900
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
s e p - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
m a r - 1 4
j u n - 1 4
s e p - 1 4
d e c - 1 4
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
==
Nickel (LME, $/t)=
200002025020500207502100021250215002175022000
222502250022750230002325023500
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
s e p - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
m a r - 1 4
j u n - 1 4
s e p - 1 4
d e c - 1 4
10-10-2910-12-03
10-11-30
=
Zinc (LME, $/t)=
2075210021252150217522002225225022752300
2325235023752400242524502475
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
s e p - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
m a r - 1 4
j u n - 1 4
s e p - 1 4
d e c - 1 4
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 12/20
SEB Commodity Research
NN
=PRECIOUS METALS==
`çåëáÇÉêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=bìêçéÉI=~=äçåÖ= éçëáíáçå= áå= íÜÉ=ÖçäÇ=ã~êâÉí=çÑÑÉêë= ä~êÖÉ=éçíÉåíá~ä= ìéëáÇÉ= ~åÇ= äáãáíÉÇ= ÇçïåëáÇÉK= ^ää=mffdp= ÄçåÇ= óáÉäÇë= ãçîÉÇ= ÜáÖÜÉê= áå=kçîÉãÄÉê= áåÅäìÇáåÖ= íÜçëÉ= êÉã~áåáåÖ=êÉä~íáîÉäó= ìå~ÑÑÉÅíÉÇ= Äó= éêÉîáçìë= íìêÄìäÉåÅÉK=fÑ=~=ÑìêíÜÉê=äçëë=çÑ=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áå=mffdp=ëí~íÉë=çÅÅìêë= íÜÉ=Éìêç=áë=áå=ëÉêáçìë=Ç~åÖÉê=~åÇ=ÄçíÜ=bìêçéÉ~å= áåîÉëíçêë=~åÇ=ëéÉÅìä~íçêë=ïáää=îÉêó=ê~éáÇäó= ëïáíÅÜ=éçëáíáçåë= áåíç= ÖçäÇK= ^äíÜçìÖÜ=bìêçéÉ~å= ïçêêáÉë= ~êÉ= ÇêáîáåÖ= íÜÉ= Ççää~ê=ÜáÖÜÉê= áí= ëÜçìäÇ= åçí= ÄÉ= ÑçêÖçííÉå= íÜ~í= Ççää~ê=éêáåíáåÖ= éêÉëëÉë= ~êÉ= êìååáåÖ= Üçí= ~ë= rp= nbO=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå= ÄÉÖáåëK= qÜÉ= rp= ïáää= Äìó= ~ë=ãìÅÜ=äçåÖ=íÉêã=íêÉ~ëìêó=ÇÉÄí=~ë=áí=áëëìÉë=çîÉê=íÜÉ= åÉñí= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëK= `çåëÉèìÉåíäóI= åÉáíÜÉê=
íÜÉ= rp= åçê= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ã~êâÉíë= ï~åí= íê~ÇÉ=ëìêéäìë= Ççää~êëI= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ä~ííÉê= éêÉîÉåíáåÖ=ëìÅÜ= Ñäçïë= Äó= áãéçëáåÖ= í~êáÑÑë= íç= ~îçáÇ=çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖI= êÉëìäíáåÖ= áå= ëìêéäìë= äáèìáÇáíó=ëÉÉâáåÖ= çíÜÉê= ~ëëÉíë= áåÅäìÇáåÖ= Ñçê= Éñ~ãéäÉ=ÖçäÇK= `ÜáåÉëÉ= áåîÉëíçêë= ï~åíáåÖ= ~= ÜÉÇÖÉ=~Ö~áåëí= ê~éáÇäó= êáëáåÖ= áåÑä~íáçå= ÅçìäÇ= ~äëç=éêçîáÇÉ= ëìééçêí= Ñçê= ~å= ~äêÉ~Çó= ÄìääáëÜ=çìíäççâK= qÜÉêÉÑçêÉI= ÄçíÜ= çìê= í~ÅíáÅ~ä= ~åÇ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ= ÖçäÇ= ã~êâÉí= îáÉïë= êÉã~áå= ÄìääáëÜK=qÜÉ= çåäó= éçíÉåíá~ä= Ç~êâ= ÅäçìÇë= áå= ~å=çíÜÉêïáëÉ= ÅäÉ~ê= ëâó= ~êÉ= ~= ëïáÑí= íìêå= áå=bìêçéÉ~å= ëÉåíáãÉåí= ~åÇ= ~å= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáåÖ=lb`a=êÉÅçîÉêóK==dçäÇ=ï~ë=ÇêáîÉå=ìéï~êÇ=íç=~=åÉï=åçãáå~ä=~ää=íáãÉ=ÜáÖÜ=EANQOQKPMLçòíF=áå=É~êäó=kçîÉãÄÉê=~ë=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=êçìåÇ=çÑ=rp=èì~åíáí~íáîÉ=É~ëáåÖ=ï~ë=êçääÉÇ= çìíK=dOM= åÉÖçíá~íáçåë=ä~íÉê=áå= íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=Ñ~áäÉÇ= ÅçãéäÉíÉäó= íç= ~ääÉîá~íÉ= ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉ=ÇÉî~äì~íáçå=ÅçåÅÉêåëK=jÉ~åïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄí=ëáíì~íáçå=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ=fêáëÜ=ëáíì~íáçåI=ëíáãìä~íáåÖ=ë~ÑÉ=Ü~îÉå=ÇÉã~åÇK=eçïÉîÉêI= íÜÉ= ëíêçåÖ= Ççää~ê= ëççå= íççâ= Åçåíêçä=ÇÉéêÉëëáåÖ=ÖçäÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=fêáëÜ=Ä~áäçìí=ëáíì~íáçå=
åÉîÉê=~ÅèìáêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=áåíÉåëáíó=~ë=íÜÉ=dêÉÉâI=ÇìêáåÖ= ïÜáÅÜ= ÖçäÇ= êçëÉ= ~äçåÖëáÇÉ= íÜÉ= Ççää~êK=_ìí= ïáíÜ= fêÉä~åÇ= çìí= çÑ= íÜÉ= ï~ó= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉí=êÉÑçÅìëÉÇ= çå= íÜçëÉ= ÅçìåíêáÉë= åÉñí= áå= äáåÉI= áKÉK=mçêíìÖ~äI= pé~áå= ~åÇ= fí~äóK= táíÜ= îÉêó= äáííäÉ=áåíÉêÉëí=áå=mçêíìÖ~ä=~ë=~=Ä~áäçìí=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ÄçíÜ=pé~áå= ~åÇ= fí~äó= ~êÉ= ãìÅÜ= ãçêÉ= éêçÄäÉã~íáÅK=táíÜ=íÜÉáê=ÄçåÇ=óáÉäÇë=~åÇ=`apë=ëí~êíáåÖ=íç=êáëÉ=íçï~êÇë= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ=kçîÉãÄÉêI=ÖçäÇ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=áå=í~åÇÉã=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=Ççää~êK=lîÉê=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜI=íÜÉ=íçé=éÉêÑçêãÉê=áå=íÜÉ=éêÉÅáçìë=ãÉí~äë=ëÉÅíçê=ï~ë=ëáäîÉê=EHNQKTBFI=ÑçääçïÉÇ=Äó=é~ää~Çáìã=EHUKTBF=
~åÇ= ÖçäÇ= EHOKMBFK= mä~íáåìã= ï~ë= íÜÉ= ïçêëí=éÉêÑçêãÉê=EJOKQBFK==
pìêéêáëáåÖäóI= éÜóëáÅ~ä=ÖçäÇ=bqc= ÜçäÇáåÖë= Ü~îÉ=êÉã~áåÉÇ= ëí~ÄäÉ= íÜêçìÖÜçìí= íÜÉ= ä~ëí= ï~îÉ= çÑ=bìêçéÉ~å= ÅçåÅÉêåëK= `çãÄáåÉÇ= ÜçäÇáåÖë= çÑ=ã~àçê=éêçîáÇÉêë=ÑÉää=Ä~Åâ=ëäáÖÜíäó=Äó=MKT=íçååÉë=íç=OMUSKU=íçååÉë=áå=kçîÉãÄÉê=ÄÉÑçêÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=çåÅÉ= ~Ö~áå=áå=É~êäó=aÉÅÉãÄÉêI= ëìÖÖÉëíáåÖ= íÜ~í=Éìêç= ÜçäÇÉêë= ~êÉ= åçí= óÉí= ÇÉëéÉê~íÉ= íç= ÑáåÇ= ~å=~äíÉêå~íáîÉ=íç=íÜÉáê=ÅìêêÉåÅóK==qïç= çìí= çÑ= íÜêÉÉ= áåÇìëíêá~ä= éêÉÅáçìë= ãÉí~äë=çìíéÉêÑçêãÉÇ= ÖçäÇ= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= J= ëáäîÉê= ~åÇ=é~ää~ÇáìãK=_çíÜ=êÉÄçìåÇÉÇ=ëíêçåÖäó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜK=páäîÉê=Ü~ë=éÉêÑçêãÉÇ=ïÉää=é~êíäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ëíêçåÖ=áåÇìëíêá~ä=ÇÉã~åÇ=Äìí=ã~áåäó= ~ë= íÜÉ= êÉëìäí= çÑ= êçÅâ= ëçäáÇ= áåîÉëíçê=ÇÉã~åÇK=páäîÉê=Åçáå=ë~äÉë=Ü~îÉ=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=êÉÅçêÇ=ÜáÖÜë= ~åÇ= éÜóëáÅ~ä= bqc= ÜçäÇáåÖë= ÅçåíáåìÉ= íç=êáëÉ=ëíÉ~Çáäó=ìåäáâÉ=ÖçäÇ=Eìé=RVQ=íçååÉë=íç=NQTUM=íçååÉë= áå= kçîÉãÄÉêFK= mÜóëáÅ~ä= é~ää~Çáìã= ~åÇ=éä~íáåìã=bqc=ÜçäÇáåÖë=~äëç=ãçîÉÇ=ÜáÖÜÉêK=qÜÉ=íïç= ãÉí~äë= ïÉêÉ= ëìééçêíÉÇ= ã~áåäó= Äó= ~å=ÉñéäçëáîÉ= ÖäçÄ~ä= êÉÅçîÉêó= áå= íÜÉ= ~ìíç= ëÉÅíçêK=táíÜ= ÖêçïíÜ= áå= ÇÉã~åÇ= ã~áåäó= áåîçäîáåÖ=Ö~ëçäáåÉ= éçïÉêÉÇ= Å~êë= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã= ÄÉííÉê=ëìáíÉÇ=Ñçê=Ö~ëçäáåÉ=~ìíç=Å~í~äóëíë=áí=Ü~ë=íÉåÇÉÇ=íç=çìíéÉêÑçêã=éä~íáåìãK=^=ÅÉåíê~ä=áëëìÉ=áå= íÜÉ=é~ää~Çáìã= ã~êâÉí= áë= oìëëá~å= ëí~íÉ=áåîÉåíçêáÉëI=~ÅÅìãìä~íÉÇ= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãáÇÇäÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ä~ëí=
ÅÉåíìêóI=~åÇ= ~å=áãéçêí~åí=ëçìêÅÉ= çÑ=ëìééäó= áå=êÉÅÉåí=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉëK= qÜÉó= ~êÉ= åçï= êìãçìêÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êìååáåÖ=äçïK==qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë= ENMNOMOFW=dçäÇÛë=ãçîÉ=ÜáÖÜÉê=ÅçåíáåìÉë= ïáíÜ= ÑÉï= ëáÖåë=çÑ= ïÉ~âåÉëë= ~éé~êÉåíK= få=íÜÉ=Ç~áäó=ÅÜ~êí=áí=áë=ÉëëÉåíá~ä=íç=êÉã~áå=çå=íçé=çÑ=íÜÉANPNRJNPPMLçòí= ê~åÖÉ= íç= ÉåëìêÉ= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ÄìääáëÜ= éêÉëëìêÉK=lìê=åÉñí=í~êÖÉí=áë=äçÅ~íÉÇ=~êçìåÇ=ANQRMJNRRMLçòíK==
Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
-10-8-6-4-202468
101214161820222426
28
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
YTD (%) MoM (%)
=`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ==
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 13/20
SEB Commodity Research
NO
GOLD=
Gold price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing) =
200300400500600700800900
1000110012001300
14001500
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Gold to silver ratio (front month, weekly closing) =
444852566064687276808488
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
==
SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=
Silver price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing) =
2468
1012141618202224262830
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Platinum and palladium prices (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing) =
100
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0 300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300Palladium (left axis)Platinum (right axis)
==
FUTURES CURVES=
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) =
1350
1375
1400
1425
1450
1475
1500
1525
1550
1575
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
s e p - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
m a r - 1 4
j u n - 1 4
s e p - 1 4
d e c - 1 4
m a r - 1 5
j u n - 1 5
s e p - 1 5
d e c - 1 5
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
=
Silver (COMEX, $/ozt)
24
25
26
27
2829
30
31
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
s e p - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
m a r - 1 4
j u n - 1 4
s e p - 1 4
d e c - 1 4
m a r - 1 5
j u n - 1 5
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/commodities-monthly-december-2010 14/20
SEB Commodity Research
NP
AGRICULTURE=
aÉëéáíÉ=íÜÉ=kçîÉãÄÉê=ÅçêêÉÅíáçåI=~ÖêáÅìäíìê~ä=ÅçããçÇáíáÉë= êÉã~áå= ÜáÖÜäó= éêáÅÉÇ= ~åÇ= ÄçíÜ=í~ÅíáÅ~ääó= ~åÇ= ëíê~íÉÖáÅ~ääó= îìäåÉê~ÄäÉK= qÜÉ=ïÉ~íÜÉê= êÉä~íÉÇ= ê~ääó= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå= çîÉêÉñíÉåÇÉÇ=Äó= ëéÉÅìä~íçêë= ïÜç= ~êÉ= äáâÉäó= íç= ÅäçëÉ= íÜÉáê=éçëáíáçåë= áÑ= íÜÉ= ëáíì~íáçå= åçêã~äáòÉë= ÑìêíÜÉêK=eçïÉîÉêI= ëÉîÉê~ä= ~ÖêáÅìäíìê~ä= ÅçããçÇáíó=ã~êâÉíë= ëíáää= êÉã~áå= ÉñÅÉéíáçå~ääó= íáÖÜíI= ÉKÖK=ÅçííçåI=ëìÖ~ê=~åÇ=ÅçêåI=ïÜáÅÜ=áë=ëìééçêíáîÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ= ëÉÖãÉåí= ~ë= ~= ïÜçäÉ= ~åÇ= Ñçê= íÜÉ= í~ÅíáÅ~ä=çìíäççâK= qÜÉ= rp= Åçêå= ~åÇ= ëçóÄÉ~å= Ü~êîÉëíë=~êÉ= çîÉê= ïáíÜ= éêçÇìÅíáçå= Ç~í~= åçï= ÅÉêí~áå=ê~íÜÉê=íÜ~å=Éëíáã~íÉëI=êÉÇìÅáåÖ=êáëâ=éêÉãáìãë=Ñçê=íÜÉëÉ=ÅçããçÇáíáÉëK=qÜÉ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ=éáÅíìêÉ=áë=ÄÉ~êáëÜ= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ëÉÅíçê= ëáíì~íáçå= äáâÉäó= íç=åçêã~äáòÉ=åÉñí=óÉ~ê=ÇÉëéáíÉ=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=êáëâ=
íÜ~í= ÇáëíìêÄ~åÅÉë= ~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ= ïáíÜ= i~= ká¥~=ÅçìäÇ= éÉêëáëí= ìåíáä= íÜÉ= ëìããÉê= áåëíÉ~Ç= çÑ=Ñ~ÇáåÖ=çìí=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëéêáåÖK==^ÖêáÅìäíìê~ä= ÅçããçÇáíó= éêáÅÉë= ÑÉää= Ä~Åâ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= áå= kçîÉãÄÉê= ~ë= ~= ëíêçåÖ= Ççää~ê=~åÇ= ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= ÅçåÅÉêåë= ÄÉÖ~å= ëÜ~âáåÖ=ëçãÉ= ëéÉÅìä~íçêë= çìí= çÑ= íÜÉ= ã~êâÉíK= qÜÉ=ê~ääó=ã~áåí~áåÉÇ=áíë=ãçãÉåíìã=Ñçê=~êçìåÇ=çåÉ=ïÉÉâ=áåíç= kçîÉãÄÉê= ÄÉÑçêÉ= ëí~ääáåÖK= qÜÉ= r_p=_äççãÄÉêÖ=ëÉÅíçê=éêáÅÉ=áåÇÉñ=ÑÉää=QKQB=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜK= `çêå= äçëí= UKVB= ~åÇ= ïÜÉ~í= VKPB= ïÜáäÉ=ëçóÄÉ~åë= ~Åíì~ääó= Ö~áåÉÇ=NKQB= ÇÉëéáíÉ= ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ëÉÅíçê=ëÉåíáãÉåíK===`çêå ==
`çêå= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= ¿RNRJRVMLÄì= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= UKVB= äçïÉê= ~í=¿RPMLÄìK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ= íç= íÜÉ= `cq`I= ëéÉÅìä~íáîÉ=éçëáíáçåë=ÑÉää=Ä~Åâ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=Äìí=êÉã~áå=ÜáÖÜ=Ñêçã=~å=ÜáëíçêáÅ~ä=éÉêëéÉÅíáîÉK=få=íÜÉ=kçîÉãÄÉê=áëëìÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= tçêäÇ= ^ÖêáÅìäíìê~ä= pìééäó= ~åÇ=aÉã~åÇ= bëíáã~íÉë= Et^pabF= íÜÉ= rp=aÉé~êíãÉåí= çÑ= ^ÖêáÅìäíìêÉ= Erpa^F= êÉîáëÉÇ=OMNMLNN=ÖäçÄ~ä=Åçêå=éêçÇìÅíáçå=Éëíáã~íÉë=Ççïå=NKNP= ãí=íç= UNUKRO=ãíK= `êçé=óÉ~ê= ÉåÇáåÖ=ëíçÅâë=ÑÉää=~=ãçêÉ=ëìÄëí~åíá~ä=PKOM=ãí=íç=NOVKNS=ãí=~ë=Åçåëìãéíáçå= Éëíáã~íÉë= ïÉêÉ= ê~áëÉÇK= qÜÉ= Åçêå=ã~êâÉí=áë=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=ëíêçåÖ=`ÜáåÉëÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=~åÇ= pçìíÜ= ^ãÉêáÅ~å= éä~åíáåÖ= ïçêêáÉëK= aêó=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ=i~=ká¥~=éÜÉåçãÉåçå=~êÉ=áåíÉêÑÉêáåÖ= ïáíÜ= éä~åíáåÖI= ÇÉÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= óáÉäÇ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëK=^=íÉãéçê~êáäó=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=Ä~Åâä~ëÜ=áë=íÜÉ=ÇÉä~óÉÇ=~ééêçî~ä=çÑ=ê~áëÉÇ=ÉíÜ~åçä=ÅçåíÉåí=áå= ÑìÉä= Ñçê= Å~êë= Äìáäí= ÄÉíïÉÉå= OMMN= ~åÇ= OMMSK=qÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=íÜÉ=Åçêå=ã~êâÉí=áë=ëÉåëáíáîÉ=íç=
ÑìêíÜÉê= ÇáëíìêÄ~åÅÉë= ÇìÉ= íç= îÉêó= äçï=áåîÉåíçêáÉëK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë=ENMNOMOFW=`çêå=áë=
ëìÑÑÉêáåÖ= ~= íÉãéçê~êó= ëÉíÄ~Åâ= ïÜáäÉ= ÇáÖÉëíáåÖ= ä~ëí=ãçåíÜÛë=~Çî~åÅÉK=_ìóÉêë=~êÉ=äáâÉäó=íç=êÉíìêå=~êçìåÇ=¿RMMLÄìK= mêáÅÉë= ~ÄçîÉ= ¿SMRLÄì= áåÇáÅ~íÉ= íÜÉ= OM éÉ~â=áë=íÜêÉ~íÉåÉÇK==tÜÉ~í ==
tÜÉ~í= ÅäçëÉÇ= ÄÉíïÉÉå= ¿SOSJTPSLÄì= áå=kçîÉãÄÉêI= ÉåÇáåÖ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜ= VKPB= äçïÉê= ~í=¿SRMLÄìK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ= íç= íÜÉ= `cq`= ëéÉÅìä~íáîÉ=éçëáíáçåë=ÑÉää=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~åÇ=Ü~îÉ=êÉíìêåÉÇ=íç=åçêã~ä= äÉîÉäë= çå= ~å= ÜáëíçêáÅ~äJêÉä~íáîÉ= Ä~ëáëK=_~ëÉÇ= çå= íÜÉ= t^pabI= ÖäçÄ~ä= OMNMLNN= ïÜÉ~í=éêçÇìÅíáçå= Éëíáã~íÉë= ïÉêÉ= êÉîáëÉÇ= NKQR= ãí=ÜáÖÜÉê= íç= SQOKUV= ãíK= eçïÉîÉêI= óÉ~ê= ÉåÇ=áåîÉåíçêó= Éëíáã~íÉë= ÑÉää= Ä~Åâ=OKNR= ãí=íç= NTOKRN=ãí= ÇìÉ= íç= ÜáÖÜÉê= Åçåëìãéíáçå= Éëíáã~íÉë= ~åÇ=äçïÉê= Å~êêóJçîÉê= Ñêçã= ä~ëí= óÉ~êK= qÜÉ= ïÜÉ~í=ã~êâÉí=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=åçêã~äáòÉ=åÉñí=óÉ~ê=~ë=Éñéçêí= Ä~åë=~åÇ=èìçí~ë=~êÉ=äáÑíÉÇ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=åÉñí=åçêíÜÉêå=ÜÉãáëéÜÉêÉ= Åêçé= Çê~ïë= ÅäçëÉêK= få= íÜÉ= ëÜçêíÉê=íÉêã= ëìééçêí= ÅçãÉë= Ñêçã= Çêó= rp= Åêçé=ÅçåÇáíáçåëI= äçïÉêáåÖ= óáÉäÇ= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëI= ~åÇ=Ñêçã= ÉñÅÉëëáîÉ= ê~áå= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ^ìëíê~äá~å=Ü~êîÉëíK= `çåëÉèìÉåíäóI= íÜÉ= ëìééäó= çÑ= ÜáÖÜ=èì~äáíó=ïÜÉ~í=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=íáÖÜíÉåK=få=oìëëá~I=ÜçïÉîÉêI= éä~åíáåÖ= ÅçåÇáíáçåë= Ü~îÉ= áãéêçîÉÇK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= ENMNOMOFW=tÜÉ~í= áë= áå= ~=
ÇçïåëáÇÉ= ÅçêêÉÅíáçå= íÜ~íI= ÖáîÉå= íÜÉ= ÄÉ~êáëÜ=kçîÉãÄÉê=Å~åÇäÉI=ã~ó=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=~êçìåÇ=¿RSRLÄì=ÄÉÑçêÉ=íìêåáåÖ=~êçìåÇK=qÜÉ=çîÉê~ää=äçåÖ=íÉêã=çìíäççâ=áë=îÉêó=ÄìääáëÜK=låÅÉ=ÅçåÖÉëíáçå= áë=çîÉêI= ïÉ= ÉñéÉÅí=ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó=ÜáÖÜÉê=éêáÅÉëK==pçóÄÉ~åë ==
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NQ
=
CORN=
Corn price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing) =
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Corn year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly) =
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0 0 / 0 1 0 1 / 0 2
0 2 / 0 3 0 3 / 0 4
0 4 / 0 5 0 5 / 0 6
0 6 / 0 7 0 7 / 0 8
0 8 / 0 9 0 9 / 1 0
1 0 / 1 1
mt
daysof supply
==
WHEAT=
Wheat price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing) =
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Wheat year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly) =
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0 0 / 0 1 0 1 / 0 2
0 2 / 0 3 0 3 / 0 4
0 4 / 0 5 0 5 / 0 6
0 6 / 0 7 0 7 / 0 8
0 8 / 0 9 0 9 / 1 0
1 0 / 1 1
mt
daysof supply
=
SOYBEANS=
Soybean price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing) =
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Soybean year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly) =
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 0 / 0 1 0 1 / 0 2
0 2 / 0 3 0 3 / 0 4
0 4 / 0 5 0 5 / 0 6
0 6 / 0 7 0 7 / 0 8
0 8 / 0 9 0 9 / 1 0
1 0 / 1 1
mt
daysof supply
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
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NR
=
SUGAR COFFEE=
Sugar price (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing) =
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
=
Coffee price (Arabica) (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing) =
40
60
80
100
120
140
160180
200
220
2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
==
=FUTURES CURVES=
Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) =
470480490500510520530540550560570580590600610
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
s e p - 1 3
d e c - 1 3
m a r - 1 4
j u n - 1 4
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
=
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) =
640660680700720740760780800820840
d e c - 1 0
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
==
Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) =
110011201140116011801200122012401260128013001320
j a n - 1 1
a p r - 1 1 j u l - 1 1
o k t - 1 1
j a n - 1 2
a p r - 1 2 j u l - 1 2
o k t - 1 2
j a n - 1 3
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
=
Sugar (CBOT, ¢/lb) =
16171819202122
2324252627282930
m a r - 1 1
j u n - 1 1
s e p - 1 1
d e c - 1 1
m a r - 1 2
j u n - 1 2
s e p - 1 2
d e c - 1 2
m a r - 1 3
j u n - 1 3
10-10-29
10-12-03
10-11-30
===
`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa^=
8/8/2019 Commodities Monthly December 2010
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NS
=COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
==
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date NextIndustrial production (%, YoY) 5,5 2010-09-30 8,4 2010-08-31 2010-12-14Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,7 2010-09-30 1,1 2010-08-31 2010-12-14Capacity utilization (%, sa) 77,6 2010-12-31 77,2 2010-09-30 N/A
Manufacturing PMI 55,3 2010-11-30 54,6 2010-10-31 2010-12-16Real GDP (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-09-30 2,0 2010-06-30 N/AReal GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,4 2010-09-30 1,0 2010-06-30 N/ACPI (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-10-31 1,8 2010-09-30 2010-12-16CPI (%, MoM) 0,4 2010-10-31 0,2 2010-09-30 2010-12-16Consumer confidence -9,4 2010-11-30 -10,9 2010-10-31 2010-12-20USAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 5,3 2010-10-31 5,6 2010-09-30 N/AIndustrial production (%, MoM) 0,0 2010-10-31 -0,2 2010-09-30 2010-12-15Capacity utilization (%) 74,8 2010-10-31 74,8 2010-09-30 2010-12-15Manufacturing PMI 56,6 2010-11-30 56,9 2010-10-31 2011-01-03Real GDP (%, YoY) 3,2 2010-09-30 3,0 2010-06-30 N/AReal GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,5 2010-09-30 1,7 2010-06-30 2010-12-22CPI (%, MoM) 1,2 2010-10-31 1,1 2010-09-30 2010-12-15CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,2 2010-10-31 0,1 2010-09-30 2010-12-15OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,4 2010-09-30 102,3 2010-08-31 N/AConsumer confidence (Michigan) 71,6 2010-11-30 67,7 2010-10-31 2010-12-10Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 39 2010-11-30 172 2010-10-31 2011-01-07JAPANIndustrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,5 2010-10-31 11,5 2010-09-30 2010-12-14Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -1,8 2010-10-31 -1,6 2010-09-30 2010-12-14Capacity utilization (%, sa) 87,3 2010-09-30 88,3 2010-08-31 N/AManufacturing PMI 47,3 2010-11-30 47,2 2010-10-31 2010-12-30Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 4,4 2010-09-30 2,7 2010-06-30 N/AReal GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,9 2010-09-30 0,4 2010-06-30 2010-12-09CPI (%, YoY) 0,2 2010-11-30 0,3 2010-10-31 2010-12-28CPI (%, MoM) 0,4 2010-10-31 0,3 2010-09-30 N/AOECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,2 2010-09-30 103,0 2010-08-31 N/AConsumer confidence 41,1 2010-10-31 41,4 2010-09-30 2010-12-10
CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 13,1 2010-10-31 13,3 2010-09-30 2010-12-13Manufacturing PMI 55,2 2010-11-30 54,7 2010-10-31 N/AReal GDP (%, YoY) 9,6 2010-09-30 10,3 2010-06-30 2011-01-21CPI (%, YoY) 4,4 2010-10-31 3,6 2010-09-30 2010-12-13OECD Composite Leading Indicator 99,3 2010-09-30 100,0 2010-08-31 N/AConsumer confidence 103,8 2010-10-31 104,1 2010-09-30 N/ABank lending (%, YoY) 19,3 2010-10-31 18,5 2010-09-30 N/AFixed asset investment (%, YoY) 24,0 2010-09-30 25,0 2010-06-30 N/AOTHEROECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-09-30 102,8 2010-08-31 N/AGlobal manufacturing PMI 53,9 2010-11-30 53,7 2010-10-31 N/A
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research =
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NT
=PERFORMANCE==
Closing YTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1233,11 4,8 -0,6 12,2 9,3 50,8UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1160,64 4,7 -0,6 12,2 9,2 34,3UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1467,06 8,3 -0,5 13,2 13,6 79,9UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1331,08 -1,9 2,4 9,9 2,8 22,5UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1153,21 3,1 -1,8 9,4 13,1 75,5UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2088,11 27,9 3,7 14,8 21,2 183,6UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1729,92 18,3 -4,4 20,5 21,5 127,4Baltic Dry Index 2099,00 -33,2 -21,6 -22,6 -46,0 -24,2
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 84,11 3,2 3,3 16,9 8,8 46,7Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 85,92 7,2 3,3 15,1 9,5 56,1Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2275,00 0,4 -2,9 10,5 10,5 6,4Copper (LME, $/t) 8360,00 11,5 2,0 12,4 20,6 96,9Nickel (LME, $/t) 23050,00 21,3 0,3 11,4 40,5 80,1Zinc (LME, $/t) 2112,00 -17,9 -12,8 2,3 -9,0 23,1Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 520,00 22,5 3,9 3,8 28,4 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1385,00 23,8 2,0 10,9 17,3 180,0Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 530,00 26,6 -8,9 24,9 31,6 182,7
Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 650,25 16,6 -9,3 -0,3 14,6 113,9Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1243,00 18,4 1,4 23,3 17,2 122,8
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS
==
Date SourceDepartment of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.govAmerican Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.orgCFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.govUS Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.govInternational Energy Agency, Oil Market Report December 10, January 18 www.oilmarketreport.comOPEC, Oil Market Report December 10, N/A www.opec.orgDepartment of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook December 7, January 11 www.eia.doe.govUS Department of Agriculture, WASDE December 10, January 12 www.usda.govInternational Grains Council, Grain Market Report January 20 www.igc.org.ukOPEC extraordinary meeting, Quito, Ecuador December 11 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=CONTACT LIST
==
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone MobileTerje Anderson Global Head of
[email protected] +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
RESEARCHBjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
CORP. SALESMats Forsell Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10Katarina Johnsson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02Maximilian Brodin Sales [email protected] +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27INST. SALES Arne Boberg Head of inst. sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95Andreas Hansson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64TRADINGMats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78Stephan Roelly Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39
=
TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Söderberg Chief tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1Dag Müller Tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9
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NU
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=
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