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Commodities Weekly Tracker 26th November 2012

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  • 7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker 26th November 2012

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    ContentsReturns

    Non Agri Commodities

    Currencies

    Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities

    Gold

    Silver

    Copper

    Monday | November 19, 2012

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities

    Chana

    Black Pepper

    Turmeric Jeera

    Soybean

    Refine Soy Oil & CPO

    Sugar

    Kapas

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    *Weekly Performance for December contract; Kapas - April 2013 contract.

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Monday | November 26, 2012

    GoldWeekly Price Performance Spot gold prices gained 1.4 percent week on week .

    The yellow metal touched weekly high of $1,754.10/oz and closed at

    $1,752.50 on Friday.

    On the MCX, Gold December contract ended 1.4 percent higher taking cues

    from strength in the spot gold prices along with depreciation in the Indian

    rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.32,281/10 gms on Friday after

    touching a weekly high of Rs. 32,309/ 10gms.

    ETF Performance

    Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-

    traded fund, declined 0.03 percent to 1342.197 tonnes till November 23rd,

    2012 as compared to 1342.63 tonnes till November 16th, 2012.

    Factors that influenced gold prices

    Speculation that Greece might be able to receive a bailout along with

    unexpected rise in the business sentiment of the German. This strengthened

    Euro thereby weighing on the US Dollar Index. Positive economic data from

    the Us also supported an upside in the gold prices.

    Further, reports of improved buying by the central bankers in the wake of

    persistent concerns of the Euro zone .

    Outlook

    In the coming week, we expect gold prices to remain firm due to positiveglobal market sentiments. Weakness in the DX is also expected to support

    an upside in the gold prices.

    Prices might also take cues from the European policy makers meeting

    scheduled 26th November and decision on Greece bailout.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Gold : Support $1,720/1,690 Resistance $1,765/1,780. (CMP: 1749.10)

    Buy MCX Gold Dec between 32000-32050, SL - 31690, Target - 32500 /32550 (CMP: 32428)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    SilverWeekly Price Performance Spot silver gained 2.5 percent week on week. The white metal touched a

    weekly high of $34.13/oz and closed at $34.10/oz on Friday.

    In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 2.2 percent and closed at Rs.

    63,526/kg on Friday and touched a weekly high of Rs. 63,620 /kg. MCX silver

    prices continued to extend gains of the previous week on the back of

    depreciation in the Indian rupee.Factors that influenced silver prices

    Bullishness the spot gold prices along with weakness in the DX.

    Strength in the base metals pack along with positive manufacturing data

    from the China. Expectation that the demand for the industrial metal might

    increase in the coming months.

    On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell by 1.2 percent to9,818 tonnes till November 23rd, 2012 from previous week holdings of

    9940.01 tonnes till November 16th, 2012.

    Outlook

    Silver prices in the coming week is expected to trade firm on the back of

    positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX.

    Speculation that European policy makers might be able to agree upon aid to

    Greece might push prices upwards. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee might support an

    upside in the MCX Silver prices.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Silver : Support 32.80/31.50 Resistance $35/36 (CMP: 34.7)

    Buy MCX SILVER Dec between 61900-62000, SL - 60700, Target - 63800 /

    64200. (CMP: 63936)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    CopperWeekly Price Performance Copper, erased earlier losses of the last week and gained 0.7 percent and closed

    at $7,779.8/tonne on Friday.

    Copper Inventories

    Decline in LME Copper inventories by 1.7 percent acted as a supportive factor for

    the copper prices in the last week. LME Copper stocks stood at 2,49,825 tonnes

    from the previous level of 2, 54,050 tonnes on 16th 2012. Copper inventories at warehouse monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange

    increased by 1.2 percent to 2,05,933 in the w/e 16th November.

    Factors that influenced copper prices

    Positive economic data from the US and China indicating the two consuming

    nations are on the path of recovery.

    Dec ine in t e LME inventories. Wea ness in t e DX, a ong wit positive g o a

    market sentiments . In the domestic market , depreciation in the Indian rupee pushed prices upwards.

    Outlook

    Copper prices in the coming week is expected to remain firm due to positive

    global market sentiments along with speculation that European policy makers

    might be able to agree on Greece bailout.

    Weakness in the DX is also expected to exert downside pressure on the copper

    prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will act as a supportive factor for thecopper prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Buy MCX Copper Nov between 423-426, SL - 415, Target - 438 / 440

    LME Copper: Support $7,640/7,480 Resistance $7,935/8,025. (CMP: $7,770)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, NYMEX crude oil prices gained 1.9 percent.

    On the domestic bourses, prices rose 1.6 percent and closed at Rs.4,906 per bbl

    on Friday after touching a high of Rs.4,941/bbl in the last week.

    US Energy Department Facts and Figures

    As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil

    inventories fell 1.47 million barrels in the week to Nov. 16 to 374.47 millionbarrels for the week ending on 16th November 2012.

    U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell 1.55 million barrels to 200.39 million barrels. U.S.

    inventories of distillates declined by 2.68 million barrels to 112.84 million

    barrels.

    Factors that influenced crude oil prices

    Favora e ata rom t e US an C ina raise opes t at t e eman in t e

    coming months might improve . Weakness in the DX along with decline in the crude oil inventories.

    Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported an upside in the crude oil prices on

    the MCX.

    Outlook

    Crude oil prices are expected to remain weak in the coming week on the a back

    of cease fire called upon by the Israel and Palestinian leaders easing supply

    concerns. Weakness in the DX is however, expected to cushion sharp fall incrude oil prices. In Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee will act as the

    supportive factor for the crude prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Buy MCX Crude Dec between 4775-4815, SL - 4650, Target - 5010 / 5050 (CMP:

    4917)

    Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $86.20/83.65 Resistance $90.25/92.10(CMP: 87.76)

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    370

    380

    390

    Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 1.3 percent on a weekly basis.

    The Indian Rupee depreciated 0.5 percent in the last week.

    Factors that influenced movement in the DX

    US Dollar Index on the back of rise in the risk appetite in the global markets resulting

    from speculation that European policy makers might agree upon providing aid to

    Greece. This reduced the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index

    (DX). Further, positive data from the US also created upbeat market sentiments thereby

    weighing on the index . The index touched a weekly low of 80.16 and closed at 80.24 on

    Friday.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

    The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week. from dollar demand from

    the oil importers and banks. Sentiments in the domestic markets became weak as the

    parliament was adjourned for the second day without discussions over the reforms.

    However, weakness in the DX along with upbeat global market sentiment capped sharpdepreciation in the currency.

    Additionally, sharp fall in the currency was cushioned as a result of increasing FIIs inflows

    in the country. The currency It touched a weekly low of 55.60 and closed at 55.44 on

    Friday.

    FII Inflows

    For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 5710.80 crores till 23rd November 2012.

    While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 99405.70 crores till 23rd

    November 2012.

    Outlook

    We expect rupee to depreciate in the current week on the back of month end dollar

    demand. However sustained capital inflows along with weakness in the DX is expected

    to cap sharp depreciation in the currency.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    USD/INR MCX December : Support 55.3/54.8 Resistance 56.4/57 (CMP:56.06)

    US Dollar Index: Support 79.8/79.4 Resistance 80.95/81.5 (CMP: 80.22)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    EuroWeekly Price Performance Euro gained 0.7 percent week on week.

    The currency touched a weekly high of 1.2991 and closed at 1.2975 on Friday.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

    Speculation that European policy makers might agree to provide aid to Greece

    in the coming week created bullish market sentiments.

    Weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. Positiveeconomic data from the Germany also added to the gains of the currency.

    News

    German Ifo Business Climate rose to 101.4 levels in the month of November as

    compared to 100 levels in the month of October.

    French Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.7 levels in the month of

    November as compared to 43.7 levels in the last month.

    German Flash Manufacturing PMI also rose to 46.8 levels in the current monthas compared to 46 levels in the month of October.

    French Flash Services PMI increased to 46.1 levels in the current month as

    compared to 44.6 levels in October.

    European nation Flash Services PMI declined to 45.7 levels in current month

    Outlook

    We expect the Euro to trade with a positive bias due to upbeat global market

    sentiments along with weakness in the DX. The currency is likely to take cuesfrom the European finance ministers meeting to be scheduled on November

    26, 2012 to negotiate and agree on the aid for Greece. Any positive outcome

    from the meeting is expected to ease debt concerns of the Euro zone thereby

    strengthening Euro.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2826/1.273 Resistance 1.308/1.315

    (CMP:1.2969)

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    Chana spot settled 3.6% lower w-o-w on subdued demand and expectations of

    higher imports in the coming week. Improved pace of sowing was also

    pressurizing Chana prices.

    Chana sowing to gain momentum

    Total pulses acreage as on 23rd November is down by 8% to 85.1 lakh ha from

    92.49 lakh ha last season. Acreage was down by almost 17% till the previous

    week and thus shown some recovery in the sowing. In Maharashtra Chana

    acreage is up by 39% at 6.8 lakh ha as on 23rd Nov. While in AP it is up by 35% at

    4.93 lakh ha. However, in Rajasthan, sowing is down by 11% at 11.36 lakh ha.

    MSP Hike to boost Chana sowing

    MSP of Chana/Gram is raised by Rs 400 per qtl for 2012-13 season to Rs 3200.

    Higher returns and favorable soil condition will boost acreage in 2012-13.

    CACP suggested 10% import duty on Pulses Due to lower availability of Chana amid drop in output in 2011-12 season,

    imports are expected to increase in the coming months. The Commission for

    Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10% import duty on pulses to

    encourage domestic production. In the first six months of 2012-13 (Apr to Sept),

    imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes.

    Chana output targeted at 7.9 mn tn after poor Kharif harvest

    The Farm ministry has targeted higher rabi pulses output, particularly Chana at7.9 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn in previous year.

    Outlook

    Chana prices are expected to remain under downside pressure in the coming

    weeks on expected higher imports. Also, demand is expected to remain weak as

    festival season is almost over.

    Weekly Strategy

    Sell NCDEX Chana Dec between 4290-4340, SL -4530, Target - 4000 / 3970

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    Black Pepper

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    Pepper traded on a negative note for the fourth consecutive week. Prices have

    corrected on expectations of better domestic as well as international pepper

    output this year. Also, reports that FMC has launched a probe into an alleged

    market manipulation of pepper futures contracts by certain market participants

    pressurized prices. however, festive as well as winter demand supported prices at

    lower levels. The harvesting of the new crop is expecting to start mid December.The Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.56% and 1.01% lower w-o-w.

    Indian Pepper is being offered at $7,400/tn (c&f) while Indonesia is offering its

    Austa at $6,500/tn and Vietnam is offering Austa at $7,000/tn.

    Average daily arrivals stood at 11 tn while offtakes stood at 10 tn last week .

    Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research

    ccor ng o mar e sources, epper pro uc on s expec e aroun , n n

    2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 production at 70,000 tn..Global updates

    Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of Pepper declined 14.8% in the first

    2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period last

    year. Consumption in the US is expected to be lower by 22-24% this year.

    Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.36 lk tn vis--vis 2.98 lk tn in

    2011.Exports of Black Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is

    reported at 80,433 mt. Indonesia is expected to produce 40,000 tn this while

    Brazil is expected to produce 28,000-30,000 tn, and Sri lanka 26,500 tn.

    Outlook

    Reports that the FMC is probing into allegations of market manipulation may keep

    Pepper Futures under pressure. Also, expectations of higher output coupled with

    weak export demand for Indian pepper may also pressurize prices. However,

    winter demand may support the prices in the coming days.

    Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX Dec Pepper between 40400-40600, SL- 41800, Target- 38600/38450.

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

    21587 22900

    2833630043

    3430832318

    3821938282

    4197340695

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    30000

    35000

    40000

    45000Prices (Rs/qtl)

    Monthly Average Spot Prices of NCDEX Black Pepper

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    Turmeric

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Turmeric Futures gained in the early part of the week on reports that the

    Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum

    Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl. Expectations of lower output this year also

    supported the prices. However, prices did not sustain at higher levels due to weak

    overseas demand and corrected towards the later part of the week. Sowing is

    expected to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

    The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.

    According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

    Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot settled higher by 0.76%

    while the Futures settled 0.39% lower w-o-w.

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

    Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

    Monday | November 26, 2012

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

    October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is loweras compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

    Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

    Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-60% lower compared to

    last year. Production in 2011-12 is reported at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1

    bag= 70 kgs).

    Outlook

    Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Reports that theTurmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum

    Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl may support prices at lower levels. Also prices may

    find support at lower levels if there are any exports enquiries in the coming days.

    However, good carryover stocks with the stockists coupled with weak overseas

    demand may keep prices under check.

    Weekly Strategy NCDEX Dec Turmeric Trend Sideways. S2- 4780, S1- 4940, R1- 5300, R2- 5500

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

    3400

    3900

    4400

    4900

    5400

    5900

    6400

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    800010000

    12000

    14000

    16000

    18000

    1-Jun-12 1-Jul-12 1-Aug-12 1-Sep-12 1-Oct-12 1-Nov-12

    PriceArrivals

    Turmeric - Prices vis-a-vis Arrivals

    Arrivals ( in bags of 75 kg each) NCDEX Spot Price (Rs/qtl)

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    Jeera

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Jeera prices traded on a negative note for the second consecutive week due to

    pressure from the ongoing sowing in Gujarat. Sowing in Gujarat is reported 42%

    lower than last year as on 19th Nov, 2012 but may improve in the coming days.

    However, fresh export enquiries have supported prices in the spot. Total stocks

    are reported at around 5 lakh bags, as against 8 lakh bags last year.

    The Spot settled 0.53% higher while the Futures settled 1.6% lower w-o-w.

    Effect of higher production offset by higher exports

    Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than

    29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to

    supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the

    prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

    Monday | November 26, 2012

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

    Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target

    for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.

    According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved.

    Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

    between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

    have stopped shipments. Export enquiries may emerge at lower levels.

    International Scenario

    According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% andaround 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,825/tn (c&f).

    Outlook

    Jeera prices may trade with a negative bias this week anticipating improvement in

    sowing. However, fresh export demand may support to prices at lower levels.

    Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Dec Jeera between 14600-14700, SL-15550, Target 13350/13200.

    0

    1

    1

    2

    2

    3

    3

    Production,

    in

    Lakh

    Tonnes

    Production of Jeera in India

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    Weekly price performance

    NCDEX Soybean futures which declined during the early part of the week on

    arrival pressure post Diwali, recovered towards the end on strong demand from

    solvent extractors. December contract settled higher by 0.5% w-o-w.

    CBOT soybean settled 2.5% higher on robust

    Rabi oilseed planting up by 4.6 percent as on Nov 23

    Rabi oilseeds sowing has gained momentum post Diwali and is up by 4.6% as onNov 23 at 6.3 lakh tonnes. The sowing of major rabi oilseeds, i.e. mustard seed, is

    up by 2.9% at 5.2 lakh ha.

    Soy meal exports down in October

    Soy meal exports during October are down 49,840 tn in October, the seventh

    consecutive month of fall in the current fiscal year, from 223,594 tn a year ago.

    China to halt regular state soy sales from this week

    China, the world's top soy buyer, will temporarily halt regular state soy sales fromthis week as Beijing starts a stockpiling programme for the oilseed.

    China's 2012-13 soybean import growth seen at 6-yr low

    China's 2012-13 soybean import growth slows Imports seen rising 3 percent to 61

    mn T Slowing demand, poor crush margins.

    Argentinas soybean sowing down till last week

    As per Argentina's Agriculture Ministry weekly crop progress report, farmers have

    planted 31 percent of the estimated acreage for soybean to 5.921 millionhectares, down 13 percent from the previous year.

    Outlook

    Soybean prices may trade with upward bias on account of robust demand for

    crushing. Delay in sowing in Argentina and brazil will further support the upside in

    the prices.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Soybean Dec between 3200-3250, SL -3000, Target - 3550 / 3590

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    Weekly price performance

    Edible oil complex traded on mixed note with divergent performance seen in

    CPO and ref soy oil. CPO prices at MCX and BMD settled 1% and 3.9% lower q-

    o-w on account of huge stocks of palm oil. While, CBOT and NCDEX Soy oil

    settled 4.2% and 3.1% higher w-o-w on account of good demand of soy oil on

    account of lower availability of other oilseeds in 2011-12.

    Global Scenario Malaysian shipments of the tropical oil fell 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent for the

    Nov. 1-20 period from a month ago.

    Malaysia's October palm oil stocks inched up 1.1 percent to a record

    2,508,644 tonnes from a revised 2,480,990 tonnes in September. Despite

    hopes for an improved exports trend, rising inventories, remain worrying as

    .

    Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has cut its export tax for crude

    palm oil to 9 % for November, down from 13.5% in October. Palm oil exports

    from Indonesia are set to increase to 1.6 mn tn from an estimated 1.41 mn tn

    in October. Output will decline to 2.4 mn tn from 2.43 mn tn. Stockpiles may

    drop to 2.5 mn tn from 2.6 mn tn.

    Domestic Scenario

    In October, India's imports of refined palm oil fell sharply 45% to 61544 tn as

    an import duty hike aimed at protecting the local refining industry from

    cheaper Indonesian supplies of the edible oil took effect. India's 2012-13 edible oil imports seen at record 10.31 mn tn, up 5.4% on

    year an industry expert said in glob oil conference. India's 2012/13 palm oil

    imports seen at 8.1 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn yr earlier .

    Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

    Buy NCDEX Refined Soy Oil Dec between 695-700, SL -670, Target - 738 / 742

    Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

    Buy MCX CPO Dec between 437-442, SL -413, Target - 478 / 482

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday| November 26, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    NCDEX Sugar December futures declined during the early part of the week,

    however, recovered towards the end on talks that the government will give mills

    flexibility in selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four

    months instead of one month. After declining sharply, Liffe white sugar settled

    marginally higher on account of long liquidation.

    Govt to move from quarterly to 4-mthly release of sugar In a move towards decontrol of the sugar sector, the government has decided to

    allocate the open market sale quota for the next four months (December-March)

    instead of current system of quarterly release. Food ministry is likely to allocate

    seven million tonne of sugar for the next four months of 2012-13 fiscal

    UP Govt may announce cane prices after Nov 30

    The UP Govt has further delayed the announcement of sugarcane SAP. According

    to sources, the UP Government may announce a hike of Rs 20-30 a quintal.against Rs 240 a quintal last season.

    ISO raises forecast for 2012-13 global sugar surplus

    One of the worst droughts in three decades will slash Brazil's northeastern sugar

    cane crop this season by as much as 30 percent in some areas. Brazil's north and

    northeast regions only account for about 10 percent of national cane output, but

    the crop is an important source of sugar and ethanol at home and abroad when

    the main center-south crop is idle between harvests. This may provide some

    support to the prices.

    Outlook

    Sugar prices may trade with downward bias as millers will try to liquidate the

    remaining stocks from the non levy quota before the month end. Hoqwever,

    sharp downside may be on talks that government will give mills flexibility in

    selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four months

    Strategy

    Sell NCDEX SUGAR Dec between 3300-3350, SL -3500, Target - 3070 / 3040

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday| November 26, 2012

    Weekly Price Performance

    NCDEX Kapas futures remained under downside pressure and settled lower by

    1.23% w-o-w on the back of increasing arrivals coupled with weak international

    market. After gaining in the previous week ICE Cotton futures underwent losses and

    settled 3.98% lower w-o-w as investors booked profit and concerns about global

    surplus offsite the fresh Chinese demand.

    Cotton Arrivals commenced across India

    As on 18th November 2012, 22.66 lakh bales of Cotton has arrived, down by 29%

    compared to last year 31.97 lakh bales during the same period last season.

    Cotton bears at risk of a short squeeze: Maguire (Source: Reuters)

    USDA projects the world cotton stocks-to-use ratio to hit highest levels since 1960.

    U.S cotton prices already trudging along at two-year lows, cotton acreage in the U.S.

    all but certain to be reduced again in 2013.

    Import prices trading at a record discount to Chinese domestic values, cotton values

    may start to find support as soon as early 2013

    Short-biased traders run the risk of a short squeeze if prices fail to weaken in their

    favor over the near term.

    USDA monthly supply demand report raised production estimates

    USDA monthly report shows a gain in yield due to favorable weather which resulted

    in rise in production estimates to 17.45 mn bales for 2012-13 season. Also, U.S has

    raised its 2012/13 forecast for global cotton inventory to above 80 mn 480-pound

    bales . Harvesting is on in US and 84% is completed as on 20th Nov 2012.Outlook

    Weak international markets along with increasing cotton arrivals from all over India

    might keep the prices in pressure. However, buying at dips is suggested as farmers

    will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also, CCI procurement at MSP levels will

    lead to recovery in the prices.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 930-940, SL -870, Target - 1030 / 1040

  • 7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker 26th November 2012

    20/20

    Thank You!

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012

    Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

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