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7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker 26th November 2012
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Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker 26th November 2012
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Commodities Weekly Tracker
ContentsReturns
Non Agri Commodities
Currencies
Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
Gold
Silver
Copper
Monday | November 19, 2012
Currencies DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
Chana
Black Pepper
Turmeric Jeera
Soybean
Refine Soy Oil & CPO
Sugar
Kapas
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
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*Weekly Performance for December contract; Kapas - April 2013 contract.
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Commodities Weekly Tracker
Monday | November 26, 2012
GoldWeekly Price Performance Spot gold prices gained 1.4 percent week on week .
The yellow metal touched weekly high of $1,754.10/oz and closed at
$1,752.50 on Friday.
On the MCX, Gold December contract ended 1.4 percent higher taking cues
from strength in the spot gold prices along with depreciation in the Indian
rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.32,281/10 gms on Friday after
touching a weekly high of Rs. 32,309/ 10gms.
ETF Performance
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-
traded fund, declined 0.03 percent to 1342.197 tonnes till November 23rd,
2012 as compared to 1342.63 tonnes till November 16th, 2012.
Factors that influenced gold prices
Speculation that Greece might be able to receive a bailout along with
unexpected rise in the business sentiment of the German. This strengthened
Euro thereby weighing on the US Dollar Index. Positive economic data from
the Us also supported an upside in the gold prices.
Further, reports of improved buying by the central bankers in the wake of
persistent concerns of the Euro zone .
Outlook
In the coming week, we expect gold prices to remain firm due to positiveglobal market sentiments. Weakness in the DX is also expected to support
an upside in the gold prices.
Prices might also take cues from the European policy makers meeting
scheduled 26th November and decision on Greece bailout.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Gold : Support $1,720/1,690 Resistance $1,765/1,780. (CMP: 1749.10)
Buy MCX Gold Dec between 32000-32050, SL - 31690, Target - 32500 /32550 (CMP: 32428)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
SilverWeekly Price Performance Spot silver gained 2.5 percent week on week. The white metal touched a
weekly high of $34.13/oz and closed at $34.10/oz on Friday.
In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 2.2 percent and closed at Rs.
63,526/kg on Friday and touched a weekly high of Rs. 63,620 /kg. MCX silver
prices continued to extend gains of the previous week on the back of
depreciation in the Indian rupee.Factors that influenced silver prices
Bullishness the spot gold prices along with weakness in the DX.
Strength in the base metals pack along with positive manufacturing data
from the China. Expectation that the demand for the industrial metal might
increase in the coming months.
On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell by 1.2 percent to9,818 tonnes till November 23rd, 2012 from previous week holdings of
9940.01 tonnes till November 16th, 2012.
Outlook
Silver prices in the coming week is expected to trade firm on the back of
positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX.
Speculation that European policy makers might be able to agree upon aid to
Greece might push prices upwards. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee might support an
upside in the MCX Silver prices.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Silver : Support 32.80/31.50 Resistance $35/36 (CMP: 34.7)
Buy MCX SILVER Dec between 61900-62000, SL - 60700, Target - 63800 /
64200. (CMP: 63936)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
CopperWeekly Price Performance Copper, erased earlier losses of the last week and gained 0.7 percent and closed
at $7,779.8/tonne on Friday.
Copper Inventories
Decline in LME Copper inventories by 1.7 percent acted as a supportive factor for
the copper prices in the last week. LME Copper stocks stood at 2,49,825 tonnes
from the previous level of 2, 54,050 tonnes on 16th 2012. Copper inventories at warehouse monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange
increased by 1.2 percent to 2,05,933 in the w/e 16th November.
Factors that influenced copper prices
Positive economic data from the US and China indicating the two consuming
nations are on the path of recovery.
Dec ine in t e LME inventories. Wea ness in t e DX, a ong wit positive g o a
market sentiments . In the domestic market , depreciation in the Indian rupee pushed prices upwards.
Outlook
Copper prices in the coming week is expected to remain firm due to positive
global market sentiments along with speculation that European policy makers
might be able to agree on Greece bailout.
Weakness in the DX is also expected to exert downside pressure on the copper
prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will act as a supportive factor for thecopper prices on MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
Buy MCX Copper Nov between 423-426, SL - 415, Target - 438 / 440
LME Copper: Support $7,640/7,480 Resistance $7,935/8,025. (CMP: $7,770)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, NYMEX crude oil prices gained 1.9 percent.
On the domestic bourses, prices rose 1.6 percent and closed at Rs.4,906 per bbl
on Friday after touching a high of Rs.4,941/bbl in the last week.
US Energy Department Facts and Figures
As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil
inventories fell 1.47 million barrels in the week to Nov. 16 to 374.47 millionbarrels for the week ending on 16th November 2012.
U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell 1.55 million barrels to 200.39 million barrels. U.S.
inventories of distillates declined by 2.68 million barrels to 112.84 million
barrels.
Factors that influenced crude oil prices
Favora e ata rom t e US an C ina raise opes t at t e eman in t e
coming months might improve . Weakness in the DX along with decline in the crude oil inventories.
Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported an upside in the crude oil prices on
the MCX.
Outlook
Crude oil prices are expected to remain weak in the coming week on the a back
of cease fire called upon by the Israel and Palestinian leaders easing supply
concerns. Weakness in the DX is however, expected to cushion sharp fall incrude oil prices. In Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee will act as the
supportive factor for the crude prices on MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
Buy MCX Crude Dec between 4775-4815, SL - 4650, Target - 5010 / 5050 (CMP:
4917)
Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $86.20/83.65 Resistance $90.25/92.10(CMP: 87.76)
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 1.3 percent on a weekly basis.
The Indian Rupee depreciated 0.5 percent in the last week.
Factors that influenced movement in the DX
US Dollar Index on the back of rise in the risk appetite in the global markets resulting
from speculation that European policy makers might agree upon providing aid to
Greece. This reduced the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index
(DX). Further, positive data from the US also created upbeat market sentiments thereby
weighing on the index . The index touched a weekly low of 80.16 and closed at 80.24 on
Friday.
Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week. from dollar demand from
the oil importers and banks. Sentiments in the domestic markets became weak as the
parliament was adjourned for the second day without discussions over the reforms.
However, weakness in the DX along with upbeat global market sentiment capped sharpdepreciation in the currency.
Additionally, sharp fall in the currency was cushioned as a result of increasing FIIs inflows
in the country. The currency It touched a weekly low of 55.60 and closed at 55.44 on
Friday.
FII Inflows
For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 5710.80 crores till 23rd November 2012.
While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 99405.70 crores till 23rd
November 2012.
Outlook
We expect rupee to depreciate in the current week on the back of month end dollar
demand. However sustained capital inflows along with weakness in the DX is expected
to cap sharp depreciation in the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
USD/INR MCX December : Support 55.3/54.8 Resistance 56.4/57 (CMP:56.06)
US Dollar Index: Support 79.8/79.4 Resistance 80.95/81.5 (CMP: 80.22)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
EuroWeekly Price Performance Euro gained 0.7 percent week on week.
The currency touched a weekly high of 1.2991 and closed at 1.2975 on Friday.
Factors that influenced movement in the Euro
Speculation that European policy makers might agree to provide aid to Greece
in the coming week created bullish market sentiments.
Weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. Positiveeconomic data from the Germany also added to the gains of the currency.
News
German Ifo Business Climate rose to 101.4 levels in the month of November as
compared to 100 levels in the month of October.
French Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.7 levels in the month of
November as compared to 43.7 levels in the last month.
German Flash Manufacturing PMI also rose to 46.8 levels in the current monthas compared to 46 levels in the month of October.
French Flash Services PMI increased to 46.1 levels in the current month as
compared to 44.6 levels in October.
European nation Flash Services PMI declined to 45.7 levels in current month
Outlook
We expect the Euro to trade with a positive bias due to upbeat global market
sentiments along with weakness in the DX. The currency is likely to take cuesfrom the European finance ministers meeting to be scheduled on November
26, 2012 to negotiate and agree on the aid for Greece. Any positive outcome
from the meeting is expected to ease debt concerns of the Euro zone thereby
strengthening Euro.
Weekly Technical Levels
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2826/1.273 Resistance 1.308/1.315
(CMP:1.2969)
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Chana
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
Chana spot settled 3.6% lower w-o-w on subdued demand and expectations of
higher imports in the coming week. Improved pace of sowing was also
pressurizing Chana prices.
Chana sowing to gain momentum
Total pulses acreage as on 23rd November is down by 8% to 85.1 lakh ha from
92.49 lakh ha last season. Acreage was down by almost 17% till the previous
week and thus shown some recovery in the sowing. In Maharashtra Chana
acreage is up by 39% at 6.8 lakh ha as on 23rd Nov. While in AP it is up by 35% at
4.93 lakh ha. However, in Rajasthan, sowing is down by 11% at 11.36 lakh ha.
MSP Hike to boost Chana sowing
MSP of Chana/Gram is raised by Rs 400 per qtl for 2012-13 season to Rs 3200.
Higher returns and favorable soil condition will boost acreage in 2012-13.
CACP suggested 10% import duty on Pulses Due to lower availability of Chana amid drop in output in 2011-12 season,
imports are expected to increase in the coming months. The Commission for
Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10% import duty on pulses to
encourage domestic production. In the first six months of 2012-13 (Apr to Sept),
imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes.
Chana output targeted at 7.9 mn tn after poor Kharif harvest
The Farm ministry has targeted higher rabi pulses output, particularly Chana at7.9 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn in previous year.
Outlook
Chana prices are expected to remain under downside pressure in the coming
weeks on expected higher imports. Also, demand is expected to remain weak as
festival season is almost over.
Weekly Strategy
Sell NCDEX Chana Dec between 4290-4340, SL -4530, Target - 4000 / 3970
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Black Pepper
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
Pepper traded on a negative note for the fourth consecutive week. Prices have
corrected on expectations of better domestic as well as international pepper
output this year. Also, reports that FMC has launched a probe into an alleged
market manipulation of pepper futures contracts by certain market participants
pressurized prices. however, festive as well as winter demand supported prices at
lower levels. The harvesting of the new crop is expecting to start mid December.The Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.56% and 1.01% lower w-o-w.
Indian Pepper is being offered at $7,400/tn (c&f) while Indonesia is offering its
Austa at $6,500/tn and Vietnam is offering Austa at $7,000/tn.
Average daily arrivals stood at 11 tn while offtakes stood at 10 tn last week .
Expectations of higher output in 2012-13
Source: Reuters & Angel Research
ccor ng o mar e sources, epper pro uc on s expec e aroun , n n
2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 production at 70,000 tn..Global updates
Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of Pepper declined 14.8% in the first
2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period last
year. Consumption in the US is expected to be lower by 22-24% this year.
Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.36 lk tn vis--vis 2.98 lk tn in
2011.Exports of Black Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is
reported at 80,433 mt. Indonesia is expected to produce 40,000 tn this while
Brazil is expected to produce 28,000-30,000 tn, and Sri lanka 26,500 tn.
Outlook
Reports that the FMC is probing into allegations of market manipulation may keep
Pepper Futures under pressure. Also, expectations of higher output coupled with
weak export demand for Indian pepper may also pressurize prices. However,
winter demand may support the prices in the coming days.
Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX Dec Pepper between 40400-40600, SL- 41800, Target- 38600/38450.
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
21587 22900
2833630043
3430832318
3821938282
4197340695
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000Prices (Rs/qtl)
Monthly Average Spot Prices of NCDEX Black Pepper
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Turmeric
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Turmeric Futures gained in the early part of the week on reports that the
Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum
Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl. Expectations of lower output this year also
supported the prices. However, prices did not sustain at higher levels due to weak
overseas demand and corrected towards the later part of the week. Sowing is
expected to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.
The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.
According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern
Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot settled higher by 0.76%
while the Futures settled 0.39% lower w-o-w.
Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season
Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as
Monday | November 26, 2012
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters
well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th
October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is loweras compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).
Lower production in the 2012-2013 season
Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-60% lower compared to
last year. Production in 2011-12 is reported at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1
bag= 70 kgs).
Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Reports that theTurmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum
Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl may support prices at lower levels. Also prices may
find support at lower levels if there are any exports enquiries in the coming days.
However, good carryover stocks with the stockists coupled with weak overseas
demand may keep prices under check.
Weekly Strategy NCDEX Dec Turmeric Trend Sideways. S2- 4780, S1- 4940, R1- 5300, R2- 5500
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
3400
3900
4400
4900
5400
5900
6400
0
2000
4000
6000
800010000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1-Jun-12 1-Jul-12 1-Aug-12 1-Sep-12 1-Oct-12 1-Nov-12
PriceArrivals
Turmeric - Prices vis-a-vis Arrivals
Arrivals ( in bags of 75 kg each) NCDEX Spot Price (Rs/qtl)
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Jeera
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Jeera prices traded on a negative note for the second consecutive week due to
pressure from the ongoing sowing in Gujarat. Sowing in Gujarat is reported 42%
lower than last year as on 19th Nov, 2012 but may improve in the coming days.
However, fresh export enquiries have supported prices in the spot. Total stocks
are reported at around 5 lakh bags, as against 8 lakh bags last year.
The Spot settled 0.53% higher while the Futures settled 1.6% lower w-o-w.
Effect of higher production offset by higher exports
Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than
29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to
supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the
prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.
Monday | November 26, 2012
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.
Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target
for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.
According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved.
Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions
between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They
have stopped shipments. Export enquiries may emerge at lower levels.
International Scenario
According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while
production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% andaround 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.
Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,825/tn (c&f).
Outlook
Jeera prices may trade with a negative bias this week anticipating improvement in
sowing. However, fresh export demand may support to prices at lower levels.
Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Dec Jeera between 14600-14700, SL-15550, Target 13350/13200.
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
Production,
in
Lakh
Tonnes
Production of Jeera in India
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Soybean
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
Weekly price performance
NCDEX Soybean futures which declined during the early part of the week on
arrival pressure post Diwali, recovered towards the end on strong demand from
solvent extractors. December contract settled higher by 0.5% w-o-w.
CBOT soybean settled 2.5% higher on robust
Rabi oilseed planting up by 4.6 percent as on Nov 23
Rabi oilseeds sowing has gained momentum post Diwali and is up by 4.6% as onNov 23 at 6.3 lakh tonnes. The sowing of major rabi oilseeds, i.e. mustard seed, is
up by 2.9% at 5.2 lakh ha.
Soy meal exports down in October
Soy meal exports during October are down 49,840 tn in October, the seventh
consecutive month of fall in the current fiscal year, from 223,594 tn a year ago.
China to halt regular state soy sales from this week
China, the world's top soy buyer, will temporarily halt regular state soy sales fromthis week as Beijing starts a stockpiling programme for the oilseed.
China's 2012-13 soybean import growth seen at 6-yr low
China's 2012-13 soybean import growth slows Imports seen rising 3 percent to 61
mn T Slowing demand, poor crush margins.
Argentinas soybean sowing down till last week
As per Argentina's Agriculture Ministry weekly crop progress report, farmers have
planted 31 percent of the estimated acreage for soybean to 5.921 millionhectares, down 13 percent from the previous year.
Outlook
Soybean prices may trade with upward bias on account of robust demand for
crushing. Delay in sowing in Argentina and brazil will further support the upside in
the prices.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX Soybean Dec between 3200-3250, SL -3000, Target - 3550 / 3590
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Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
Weekly price performance
Edible oil complex traded on mixed note with divergent performance seen in
CPO and ref soy oil. CPO prices at MCX and BMD settled 1% and 3.9% lower q-
o-w on account of huge stocks of palm oil. While, CBOT and NCDEX Soy oil
settled 4.2% and 3.1% higher w-o-w on account of good demand of soy oil on
account of lower availability of other oilseeds in 2011-12.
Global Scenario Malaysian shipments of the tropical oil fell 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent for the
Nov. 1-20 period from a month ago.
Malaysia's October palm oil stocks inched up 1.1 percent to a record
2,508,644 tonnes from a revised 2,480,990 tonnes in September. Despite
hopes for an improved exports trend, rising inventories, remain worrying as
.
Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has cut its export tax for crude
palm oil to 9 % for November, down from 13.5% in October. Palm oil exports
from Indonesia are set to increase to 1.6 mn tn from an estimated 1.41 mn tn
in October. Output will decline to 2.4 mn tn from 2.43 mn tn. Stockpiles may
drop to 2.5 mn tn from 2.6 mn tn.
Domestic Scenario
In October, India's imports of refined palm oil fell sharply 45% to 61544 tn as
an import duty hike aimed at protecting the local refining industry from
cheaper Indonesian supplies of the edible oil took effect. India's 2012-13 edible oil imports seen at record 10.31 mn tn, up 5.4% on
year an industry expert said in glob oil conference. India's 2012/13 palm oil
imports seen at 8.1 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn yr earlier .
Strategy: Refine Soy Oil
Buy NCDEX Refined Soy Oil Dec between 695-700, SL -670, Target - 738 / 742
Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)
Buy MCX CPO Dec between 437-442, SL -413, Target - 478 / 482
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Sugar
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday| November 26, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
NCDEX Sugar December futures declined during the early part of the week,
however, recovered towards the end on talks that the government will give mills
flexibility in selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four
months instead of one month. After declining sharply, Liffe white sugar settled
marginally higher on account of long liquidation.
Govt to move from quarterly to 4-mthly release of sugar In a move towards decontrol of the sugar sector, the government has decided to
allocate the open market sale quota for the next four months (December-March)
instead of current system of quarterly release. Food ministry is likely to allocate
seven million tonne of sugar for the next four months of 2012-13 fiscal
UP Govt may announce cane prices after Nov 30
The UP Govt has further delayed the announcement of sugarcane SAP. According
to sources, the UP Government may announce a hike of Rs 20-30 a quintal.against Rs 240 a quintal last season.
ISO raises forecast for 2012-13 global sugar surplus
One of the worst droughts in three decades will slash Brazil's northeastern sugar
cane crop this season by as much as 30 percent in some areas. Brazil's north and
northeast regions only account for about 10 percent of national cane output, but
the crop is an important source of sugar and ethanol at home and abroad when
the main center-south crop is idle between harvests. This may provide some
support to the prices.
Outlook
Sugar prices may trade with downward bias as millers will try to liquidate the
remaining stocks from the non levy quota before the month end. Hoqwever,
sharp downside may be on talks that government will give mills flexibility in
selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four months
Strategy
Sell NCDEX SUGAR Dec between 3300-3350, SL -3500, Target - 3070 / 3040
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Kapas/Cotton
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday| November 26, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
NCDEX Kapas futures remained under downside pressure and settled lower by
1.23% w-o-w on the back of increasing arrivals coupled with weak international
market. After gaining in the previous week ICE Cotton futures underwent losses and
settled 3.98% lower w-o-w as investors booked profit and concerns about global
surplus offsite the fresh Chinese demand.
Cotton Arrivals commenced across India
As on 18th November 2012, 22.66 lakh bales of Cotton has arrived, down by 29%
compared to last year 31.97 lakh bales during the same period last season.
Cotton bears at risk of a short squeeze: Maguire (Source: Reuters)
USDA projects the world cotton stocks-to-use ratio to hit highest levels since 1960.
U.S cotton prices already trudging along at two-year lows, cotton acreage in the U.S.
all but certain to be reduced again in 2013.
Import prices trading at a record discount to Chinese domestic values, cotton values
may start to find support as soon as early 2013
Short-biased traders run the risk of a short squeeze if prices fail to weaken in their
favor over the near term.
USDA monthly supply demand report raised production estimates
USDA monthly report shows a gain in yield due to favorable weather which resulted
in rise in production estimates to 17.45 mn bales for 2012-13 season. Also, U.S has
raised its 2012/13 forecast for global cotton inventory to above 80 mn 480-pound
bales . Harvesting is on in US and 84% is completed as on 20th Nov 2012.Outlook
Weak international markets along with increasing cotton arrivals from all over India
might keep the prices in pressure. However, buying at dips is suggested as farmers
will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also, CCI procurement at MSP levels will
lead to recovery in the prices.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 930-940, SL -870, Target - 1030 / 1040
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Thank You!
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | November 26, 2012
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The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any
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