COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 1
COMMODITY REVIEWCOMMODITY REVIEW
MECHANICAL PARTS
PAUL SHELDON
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 2
Mechanical Components Mechanical Components (P. Sheldon)(P. Sheldon)
SCORE CARD FY 06
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 3
Mechanical Components Mechanical Components (P. Sheldon)(P. Sheldon)
– STRONG PRESENCE OF SUPPLIERS IN E. EUROPE– FY06 ACTION: ‘WESTERNIZE BUSINESS HABITS OF MAIN EE BASE’
• REVERSE AUCTIONS• PRICES:
– CLOSER FOLLOW UP of price vs raw materials
– PRODUCTIVITY: especially machined parts (R. Bédard)
– ACTION IN MACHINING S/CONTRACTING: as opposed to machined parts inc material
• ROTC– LEAN: but most suppliers of Olomouc are already lean…
– DPO
– IMPACT OF ASIA SUPPLIERS MAINLY IN Q3 & Q4• Volume deliveries of machined castings & stamped parts. • Difficulty in tracking savings automatically
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 4
REVERSE AUCTIONSREVERSE AUCTIONS
• REVERSE AUCTIONS• €467k Plastic components (feb 05): €42k savings (RO/F) DONE. €32k
(RO: tooling AR done) + €17k (F: transfer in progress)
• €113k machined Bronze casting (oct 05): €10k savings (F). Unsuccessful.
• €120k Aluminium (dec 05): €20k (HO: 1st tool transfer of 4 done)
• €150k. Machining (Jan 06): €5k (CZ) DONE. €20k (CZ) Almost done (first samples delivered, refused. New samples end June)
• €202k Bar machining: €12k (F) done, approved. €19k in progress (1st approval refused). 2 other lots didn’t work.
• €615k Cast iron (Feb 06): €156k (RO & CZ) in progess, AR done.
• €150k Cast iron (Avril 06): €35k (HO & CZ) in progess, AR done.
• €220k Cast iron (May 06): €60k (RO, BG, HO, CZ): decision to be made.
• €150k Cast iron (June 06): released
• €120k Machined parts (July 06): to be done
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 5
PRICINGPRICING
• ACTIONS ENGAGED IN Q1 / Q2 on existing base– Scrape back some of high price hikes of FY05 in Q1 & Q2
• TES (€71k), Trie Château (€27k), Koopron (€25k), PBS (€8k)
– Productivity in machining• ZLKL: 3% to 5% on targeted parts
• PRICE TENSION SINCE JAN 06: Low profile / defensive position adopted in Q3 & Q4– Energy costs up 8% to 27% depending on the country– Raw material prices go up again– Many EE mechanical companies back in a ‘production economy’:
• At full capacity, they ‘clean up’ their portfolios
• Big price rises asked for on small volume (5% to 20%)
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 6
KEY OBJECTIVE FY 06: CASH KEY OBJECTIVE FY 06: CASH FLOWFLOW
– DPO improvement: • Targetting of suppliers between 0 & 45 days• High sales
– Targetting criteria (tailor to the situation):• Group or family company?• Take account of customer portfolio of the suppliers (esp direct competitors of
LS)• Do not create fragile situation at good suppliers’ (eg. family companies)• Talk it over with them & listen: cash flow isn’t managed the same way in small
companies• Target suppliers with increasing sales (esp with LS)• Agree to go ther step by step:
– Don’t add extension of DPO to big price reduction requests
• Get E. European suppliers used to participating in our ROTC improvement effort
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 7
TOP 6 SUPPLIERS, E. EUROPE, TOP 6 SUPPLIERS, E. EUROPE, MECHANICALMECHANICAL
FY 06 EstSUPPLIERS LS FAM SPEND (KE)
SEM 2 615
PUS 1 118ABE 796TMA 625PMS 23
Others 1695 346
PDE 1 356
COF 149
PMS 366PUS 165CUI 91CNX 67
Others 1122 306
PMS 531
PUS 235
STM 209ACL 70PDC 44ACE 42
CNX 20
PDE 17
Others 5581 725
PMO 833PUS 90STM 28
Others 35986
PMO 875PUS 36STM 120
1 031
PDE 397
COF 45
PMS 49
CUI 29CNX 25PDC 4ALT 1
PUS 3
STM 4861 031 VANEK JIRI
VANEK JIRI
PRINS METALLUR
PRINS METALLUR
PROMET FOUNDRY
PROMET FOUNDRY
KOOPRON S.R.O.
ZLKL LOSTICE S
KOOPRON S.R.O.
ZLKL LOSTICE S
TES VSETIN SRO
TES VSETIN SRO
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 8
DONE IN FY 06: CASH FLOWDONE IN FY 06: CASH FLOWACTION ENGAGED ON €15700k of SALESACTION ENGAGED ON €15700k of SALES
SUPPLIERS
Spend
K€ FY 06 (Est)
DPO Avge FY 05
Objectives / Négotiation FY 06
News DPO
Application Date
TES VSETIN 5 346 30 60 days 45 June 06 (45 days)
KOOPRON S.R.O. 2 306 30 60 days 60 In FY 07
ZLKL LOSTICE SRO. 1 725 30 60 days 60 dec 05 (45), march 06 (60)
VANEK JIRI 1 031 30 60 days 60 jan 06 (45) & jul 06 (60)
PRINS 986 30 60 days 60 in FY 07
PROMET 1 031 30 60 days 45 July 06 (45)
MOPOS 995 30 60 days 60 In FY 07
PBS 446 30 60 days 60 jan 06 (45), jul 06 (60)
TAFONCO 854 30 60 days 60 60j mars 06
SCHULMAN A.SA. 468 60 90 days 90 jan 06 : 90j net
SVT 184 30 60 days 60 oct O5
KOVOKON 231 30 60 days 45 May 06 (45)
AVIMECA (SARL.) 155 30 60 days 60 oct O5 (60)
TOTAL 15 758 30,9 54,6
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 9
LEAN : ACTIONS FY 06-07LEAN : ACTIONS FY 06-07LIVRAISON APRES
4 à 5 fois / sem
2 à 3 fois / sem
1 fois / sem
3 fois / mois
2 fois / mois
1 fois / mois
< 1 fois / mois
M à J délai FAF (en
jours)KOOPRON S.R.O. x idem 10
ZLKL LOSTICE SRO. X idem 10
VANEK JIRI X idem 10
SCHULMAN A.SA. X 1 fois par mois demandé 5
PBS X idem 10
AVIMECA (SARL.) X 1 fois/sem 5 à 10SVT X
TES VSETIN X action à engager sur respect des délais 10
PRINS XPrins averti que LS demandera plus de livraisons. Réunions MLS lean à faire. 15
PROMET X idem 15
PERSEVERANCE X 1 fois/sem 15
TAFONCO X idem 15
SAFEM à voir
KOVOKON X idem 10
LIVRAISON AVANT ACTION
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 10
IMPACT OF ASIAIMPACT OF ASIA
• Big savings from FY05 auctions in stampings & cast –iron• Only kicks in in Q3 & Q4• Stamping savings clearly identified in inflation tracking• Castings not so easy: raw + machined in Europe, but
supplied finished (mchined) from Asia– Manual tracking necessary
• Example of Alternator division (castings)– Manual tracking necessary– Top 6 castings in sales value = €3000k raw + €1600k machining =
€4600k• €700k savings in FY06 unidentified automatically (Asia)• €320k savings identified automatically, piece / piece rough castings
(LCC / VLCC EE)
– New castings introduced in mid FY05 (global alternator design)• €150k savings in FY06 (Q3 & Q4): VLCC EE (Uk, BG, RO)
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 11
MECHANICAL PARTSMECHANICAL PARTS
ANALYSIS BY COMPONENT FAMILY
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 12
LS Family & DRI CodeLS Family & DRI Code
Spend (KE)
LS FAMILY Commodity Team Famille DRI DRI Projection 06
W191 7 487 41%
W192 3 593 29%
W190 86 50%11 165 37%
CASTING: GREY IRON F023 6 461 28%CASTING: STEEL/SST F040 90 19%
CASTING: OTHER A140 74 34%CASTING: DUCTILE IRON F013 9 18%
A100 271 19%
A110 104 16%A101 3 -34%
CASTING: OTHER A170 105 -12%7 115 26%
W210 4 455 50%W211 6 -84%
4 461 48%
A100 1 361 17%
A110 43 22%1 404 17%
Variation 06/05
PMA NON FERROUS CASTINGS CASTING: ALUMINUM
PMA
PDE
PMO
PDE STAMPING STAMPING
PMO
DIVISION MANAGED
NON FERROUS CASTINGSCASTING: ALUMINUM
PUS MACHINED PART MACHINED PART
PUS
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 13
MECHANICAL PartsMECHANICAL Parts
CA FY 05
K€C/O in
FY 05
Q1 06 /
Q4 05
Q2 06 /
Q1 06
Q3 06 /
Q2 06
Q4 06 /
Q3 06
Inflation
06 Commentaires /Actions
CA FY 06
K€C/O in
FY 07
Q1 07 /
Q4 06
Q2 07 /
Q1 07
Q3 07 /
Q2 07
Q4 07 /
Q3 07
Inflation
07
PUS PIECES USINEES HORS
PIECES DECOLLETEES8 944 -0,4% -1,4% 0,8% 3,2% -0,3% 0,4%
Hausses = cours d'alu €47k chez Tafonco. +
€17k Stepanov (ne veut plus faire ces pièces). Baisses = enchères et actions ciblées.
Baissses en FY07 (Chine)
11 165 1,6% -0,1% -3,2% -1,0%
PMO PIECE MOULEE EN
FONTE GRISE6 074 1,1% 0,1% 1,2% 2,3% 3,3%
Enchères sur €1m en Q3 & Q4 FY06. Date
d'impact incertaine. 7 115 1,5% -2,1% -1,3% -2% -2,6%
PMS PIECE MECANO-
SOUDEE,OXYDECOUPEE5 753 0,6% -0,1% 1,0% -0,2% -1,0% 0,9% 6 333 -0,6% 0% 0% -3% -3% -2,7%
PDEPIECE METALLIQUE
DECOUPEE ET/OU
EMBOUTIE
3 010 0,7% 0,0% 0,0% -1,4% -4,0% -1,0%
gains de €100k Q3 & €100k Q4 (Chine).
Gains de €20k Q3 & €20k Q4 Action Europe Est
4 461 -3,7% -0,7% -1,2% -4,8%
PLA PLASTIQUES MAT
PREM,SEMI-PRODUITS1 724 0,3% -0,6% -0,8% -1,7% -1,0% -1,9%
encore -1% en juillet (transfert outillages)encore -0.75% en jan07
1 900 -1,8% -0,8% -0,7% -3,1%
PFE PIECES ACIER FORGEES
ESTAMPEES1 597 3,3% -0,8% 1,5% -0,9% 5,0% 4,5%
baisses Trie Château (concurrence &
enchères), Thrall. Hausses sur marché général (3% à 8% sur
petits fournisseurs)
1 975 3,6% 3,6%
COFCOFFRETS ET
ARMOIRES
D'APPAREILLAGE
1 644 1,0% 0,0% -1,2% -1,4% -0,6% voir PDE, suite recodification 1 065 -1,0% -1,0%
PMA PIECE MOULEE EN
ALUMINIUM1 435 -0,4% 0,4% -0,4% 6,9% -0,8% 2,9%
forte hausse MP alu en Q3.
Impact actions enchères et autres Q41 404 2,6% 5,9% -1,4% 7,5%
SEM SOUS ENSEMBLE DE
MOTEURS2 421 2,5% -1,5% -0,3% -0,7% 0,4%
Impact EMIT pas visible sur le panier
(production interne LS externalisée)
quelques baisses chez TES
3 658 -0,4% -0,4%
PDC PIECES DECOLLETEES 821 0,0% -0,8% -0,3% 0,3% -0,9%impact haussier RoHS (zingué jaune etc)Baisses ciblées. Impact enchères en FY07
1 014 0,1% -1,0% -1,0% -1,7%
TOTAL 33 422 0,7% -0,6% 0,5% 1,2% -0,5% 1,0% 33 753 0,4% -0,3% -1,6% -1,0% -0,5% -1,8%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 14
MECHANICAL PartsMECHANICAL Parts
EVOLUTION INDICE MOYEN PAR FAMILLE
90,0
92,0
94,0
96,0
98,0
100,0
102,0
104,0
106,0
108,0
110,0
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
Q402
Q103
Q203
Q303
Q403
Q104
Q204
Q304
Q404
Q105
Q205
Q305
Q405
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
Somme
Regroupement Familles Mecanique
Données
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 15
MECHANICAL Parts : LCC FY 06 MECHANICAL Parts : LCC FY 06
East Europe39%
Romania
2.2%
Others
0.2%
Hungary
1.4%
Poland
0.5%
Russia
1.7%
Czech rep
32.6%
Asia4%
West. Europe57%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 16
MACHINED PartsMACHINED Parts
EVOLUTION INDICE MOYEN FAMILLE PIECES USINEES (PUS)
90
95
100
105
110
115
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
Q402
Q103
Q203
Q303
Q403
Q104
Q204
Q304
Q404
Q105
Q205
Q305
Q405
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 17
MACHINED PartsMACHINED Parts
Date : 14/06/2006
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 (Mai)1 046 K€ 1 649 K€ 1 504 K€ 3 271 K€ 6 369 K€ 8 944 K€ 8 735 K€
-0,3% -3,1% 2,2% -1,7% 9,3% 0,4%
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total articles achetés 300 382 352 428 489 570 538
Nombre articles = 80 % du CA 68 71 66 37 39 41 45
% achats sans code 13% 11% 9% 39% 44% 42% 36%
en K€ 2 K€ 0 K€ 3 K€ 1 443 K€ 2 991 K€ 4 288 K€ 4 070 K€
en % du Total 0,2% 0,0% 0,2% 44,1% 47,0% 47,9% 46,6%PUS000TX000 MODELE 2 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 1 120 K€ 2 370 K€ 3 049 K€ 2 814 K€
PUS321TA002 FLQ.AR.US.ALU.LSA411-4-05/J 0 K€ 0 K€ 3 K€ 323 K€ 485 K€ 567 K€ 585 K€
PUS560CA002 CARCASSE G54 D1050X559X1800MM 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 2 K€ 289 K€ 304 K€
PUS560CA001 CARCAS.G54 D1050X559.5X1800MM 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 214 K€ 254 K€
PUS880BX002 BRIDE MONOPALIER SAE 0 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 1 K€ 135 K€ 169 K€ 112 K€
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total Fournisseurs 104 118 131 143 149 163 160
Nombre Fournisseurs > 15 K€ 21 32 25 33 53 59 57
en K€ 127 K€ 119 K€ 129 K€ 1 395 K€ 2 786 K€ 3 463 K€ 3 616 K€
en % du Total 12,1% 7,2% 8,6% 42,6% 43,7% 38,7% 41,4%27 K€ 8 K€ 4 K€ 402 K€ 934 K€ 929 K€ 1 132 K€
2 K€ 16 K€ 1 K€ 55 K€ 413 K€ 720 K€ 875 K€
18 K€ 2 K€ 2 K€ 140 K€ 387 K€ 647 K€ 469 K€
0 K€ 0 K€ 4 K€ 445 K€ 566 K€ 593 K€ 666 K€
81 K€ 93 K€ 118 K€ 352 K€ 486 K€ 575 K€ 475 K€
ARTICLES
SFAR
TES VSETIN SRO
CHOLLET
Top 5 Fournisseursbase FY 05
FOURNISSEURSTAFONCO A.S.
CA en K€Inflation nette
SYNTHESE FAMILLE : PIECES USINEES (PUS)
Top 5 Articlesbase FY 05
PRIVOD CHEZ SA
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 18
MACHINED Parts : LCC FY 06 MACHINED Parts : LCC FY 06
Eastern Europe
51%
Romania10%
Hungary1%
Poland1%
Russia6%Czech rep
33%
Asia7%
West. Europe42%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 19
PUSPUS FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• TARGET INFLATION FY 07 : -2 %
• MARKET TREND: risks & opportunities
– Steel prices fluctuate less, but remain high – Castings index similar– New machines cost same price in LCCs as in West– Energy prices continue to rise much faster than inflation: moderate prce
hike requests of FY06 (+0 to 2%) could be higher in FY07– LS in market trend toward purchasing more added value (eg. Machined
castings)• China attractive for high volumes
– A few EE companies invest in more modern machinery, but the majority have too much (old) capacity
– EE & China have different supply bases:• China is organised between mechanical / foundries & machining companies• EE is not
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 20
PUSPUS FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• STRATEGY & ACTION PLAN– Share our markets between EE & China via separate auctions if
possible• Keep an eye on $/€ rates
– Enlarge strategy to subcon machining (same supplier base)– Reduce number of suppliers by consolidation
• Wisconsin CZ (€400k), UNEKO (€300k) & ISH (€250k) not strategic: consolidate in existing & VLCC base
– Continue toward more added value in purchase– Casting suppliers pre-informed of machining requirement– Enlarge machining base / partnerships with foundries to create
market for future auctions– Replace Tafonco (major price rise in FY06)
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 21
KPI / PUSKPI / PUS
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07
Spend in K € 8,944 K€ 11,165 K€ 10,941 K€Net Material Inflation 9.3% 0.4% -2.0%
LCCS (%) 58.0% 60.0%
e-SourcingK€ (M) Bid 332 K€ 600 K€average Results -16.0% -15.0%
Direct Material DPOTotal Averge Days 72 Days 70 Days 73 DaysK€ less than 30 days 1,345 K€ 1,217 K€
KPI / PUS
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 22
CASTING GREY IRONCASTING GREY IRON
EVOLUTION INDICE MOYEN FAMILLE PIECES MOULEES DE FONDERIE (PMO)
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
Q402
Q103
Q203
Q303
Q403
Q104
Q204
Q304
Q404
Q105
Q205
Q305
Q405
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 23
CASTING RAW MAT’L INDEXCASTING RAW MAT’L INDEX
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
JuneJuly
August
September
OctoberNovemberDecember
JanuaryFebruaryMarch
AprilMayJuneJuly
August
September
OctoberNovemberDecember
JanuaryFebruaryMarch
AprilMayJuneJuly
August
September
OctoberNovemberDecember
JanuaryFebruaryMarch
AprilMay
2003 2004 2005 2006
EURO/t
Index
Index change %
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 24
CASTING GREY IRONCASTING GREY IRON
Date : 14/06/2006
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 (Mai)4 842 K€ 5 016 K€ 4 205 K€ 5 074 K€ 5 979 K€ 6 074 K€ 5 537 K€
0,7% 1,3% 0,9% -1,2% 5,5% 3,3%
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total articles achetés 659 717 665 646 671 629 652
Nombre articles = 80 % du CA 126 142 148 117 109 95 105
% achats sans code 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1%
en K€ 211 K€ 219 K€ 216 K€ 1 084 K€ 1 476 K€ 1 764 K€ 1 456 K€
en % du Total 4,4% 4,4% 5,1% 21,4% 24,7% 29,0% 26,3%PMO450FF012 FLASQUE BRIDE MONOPALIER 0 K€ 0 K€ 23 K€ 441 K€ 523 K€ 592 K€ 399 K€
PMO387FF001 FLASQUE ARRIERE PL.F432-4-003E 0 K€ 0 K€ 1 K€ 297 K€ 337 K€ 342 K€ 308 K€
PMO408FF001 BRIDE BRIDE PLAN F411-4-15/B 0 K€ 0 K€ 3 K€ 97 K€ 218 K€ 300 K€ 288 K€
PMO705FF003 FLASQ.PALIER AR.-GJL200-LSA491 211 K€ 219 K€ 190 K€ 127 K€ 202 K€ 279 K€ 254 K€
PMO450FF014 FLASQUE BRIDE PLAN F411-4-014D 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 122 K€ 195 K€ 252 K€ 208 K€
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total Fournisseurs 84 82 78 76 79 77 76
Nombre Fournisseurs > 15 K€ 38 36 33 32 31 30 32
en K€ 2 010 K€ 2 368 K€ 1 993 K€ 3 183 K€ 4 014 K€ 3 936 K€ 3 854 K€
en % du Total 41,5% 47,2% 47,4% 62,7% 67,1% 64,8% 69,6%1 347 K€ 1 563 K€ 1 426 K€ 1 550 K€ 1 590 K€ 1 492 K€ 1 890 K€
44 K€ 43 K€ 5 K€ 505 K€ 733 K€ 831 K€ 685 K€
4 K€ 24 K€ 58 K€ 629 K€ 876 K€ 817 K€ 652 K€
616 K€ 738 K€ 483 K€ 253 K€ 541 K€ 611 K€ 598 K€
0 K€ 0 K€ 22 K€ 246 K€ 274 K€ 185 K€ 28 K€
ARTICLES
PERSEVERANCE (
PROMET FOUNDRY
PRINS METALLUR
Top 5 Fournisseursbase FY 05
FOURNISSEURSSAFEM
CA en K€Inflation nette
SYNTHESE FAMILLE : PIECES MOULEES DE FONDERIE (PMO)
Top 5 Articlesbase FY 05
PBS (PRVNI BRN
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 25
CASTING GREY IRON : LCC FY 06 CASTING GREY IRON : LCC FY 06
Eastern Europe
41%Romania
14%
Others1%
Hungary1%
Czech rep26%
Asia1%
West. Europe57%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 26
PMOPMO FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• TARGET INFLATION FY 07 : -3 %
• MARKET TREND: risks & opportunities
– CZ still pretty saturated: several foundries closed in 05 & 06
– Casting material prices remain high (autumn/winter 04 level)
– No raw material shortage today, but we remain vigilant
– CZ, SK, RO: currency revaluation 8% to 10% in 2005.
– ‘Unhealthy’ EE suppliers have cash problems
– W. Europe staggered price rises in 05 & 06: 3-5% in 05, 1-5% in 06
– EE imposed almost full impact in 05, moderation in 06
– 0% - 3% inflation from Asia
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 27
PMOPMO FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• STRATEGY & ACTION PLAN– New supplier base in VLCC (Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine)– Capacity suppliers in Central Europe (Croatia) to help CZ short term– Auctions of high volume parts :
• Do not mix EE & China in auctions: EE not mature / competitive. Strategic share of markets. • Always include tooling in auctions: 25% - 50% savings possible• Take care with Asia in FY07: direct RFQ with newly developed suppliers gives same prices in
FY06 for (machined) castings as in FY05– Not sure to get this containment on open market / auctions (+10% to 15% mat’l price rise since then)
– Auction potential limited in FY07:• Top 5 parts all auctioned / double auctioned in last 18 months• 24 month contracts preferred
– Reduce number of suppliers in W Europe: target 2 or 3 strategic foundries– Be opportunistic when raw material costs drop
• Be close to CZ / Olomouc = big volume buys of LS
– Seek partners capable of machining (even if not yet ready)– Problems with low volume parts: pruning by EE foundries
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 28
PMOPMO
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07
Spend in K € 6,074 K€ 7,115 K€ 6,901 K€Net Material Inflation 5.5% 3.3% -3.0%
LCCS (%) 42.0% 45.0%
e-SourcingK€ (M) Bid 1,135 K€ 700 K€average Results -25.0% -15.0%
Direct Material DPOTotal Averge Days 72 Days 70 Days 73 DaysK€ less than 30 days 1,986 K€ 1,859 K€
KPI / PMO
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 29
CASTING ALUMINIUMCASTING ALUMINIUM
EVOLUTION INDICE MOYEN FAMILLE PIECES MOULEES ALUMINIUM (PMA)
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
Q402
Q103
Q203
Q303
Q403
Q104
Q204
Q304
Q404
Q105
Q205
Q305
Q405
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 30
CASTING ALUMINIUMCASTING ALUMINIUMDate : 14/06/2006
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 (Mai)563 K€ 1 279 K€ 1 216 K€ 1 273 K€ 1 176 K€ 1 200 K€ 1 099 K€
3,9% -3,3% -0,9% -2,8% 2,3% 2,9%
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total articles achetés 94 146 140 133 129 131 135
Nombre articles = 80 % du CA 19 24 26 20 20 21 23
% achats sans code 1% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0%
en K€ 252 K€ 594 K€ 427 K€ 427 K€ 567 K€ 572 K€ 413 K€
en % du Total 44,8% 46,5% 35,1% 33,6% 48,2% 47,6% 37,6%PMA145CB002 CARCAS.LS90B30L=145 AE003600/B 171 K€ 342 K€ 317 K€ 300 K€ 318 K€ 281 K€ 256 K€
PMA145CB001 CARTER ALU.SP-EB15A 98/ALCATEL 30 K€ 188 K€ 63 K€ 91 K€ 149 K€ 160 K€ 98 K€
PMA145CB003 CARCAS.LS90 B30 L=80 AE003700B 51 K€ 64 K€ 48 K€ 37 K€ 55 K€ 51 K€ 0 K€
PMA131CC001 CARTER MVDE:F65M5 -ALSI7MG/Y30 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 18 K€ 40 K€ 46 K€
PMA120FC002 FLASQUE MBT110-MBT1141 B5 F120 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 27 K€ 40 K€ 13 K€
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total Fournisseurs 22 30 32 33 28 27 27
Nombre Fournisseurs > 15 K€ 8 12 15 8 9 10 9
en K€ 276 K€ 881 K€ 635 K€ 698 K€ 905 K€ 987 K€ 813 K€
en % du Total 49,1% 68,9% 52,2% 54,8% 76,9% 82,3% 74,0%222 K€ 406 K€ 364 K€ 342 K€ 383 K€ 336 K€ 278 K€
0 K€ 241 K€ 149 K€ 187 K€ 209 K€ 225 K€ 191 K€
30 K€ 188 K€ 63 K€ 91 K€ 149 K€ 193 K€ 148 K€
24 K€ 46 K€ 59 K€ 69 K€ 92 K€ 152 K€ 124 K€
0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 10 K€ 71 K€ 82 K€ 72 K€
CA en K€Inflation nette
SYNTHESE FAMILLE : PIECES MOULEES ALUMINIUM (PMA)
Top 5 Articlesbase FY 05
SZORO KFT.
ARTICLES
NUOVA PRESSO F
DIACE FONDERIE
DOURLET (FONDE
Top 5 Fournisseursbase FY 05
FOURNISSEURSLAFOND (FONDER
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 31
ALUMINIUM LMEALUMINIUM LME
ALUMINIUM (LME)
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
2 600
2 800
3 000
3 200
3 400
janv-03févr-03mars-03mai-03juin-03juil-03
sept-03oct-03déc-03janv-04mars-04avr-04mai-04juil-04
août-04sept-04nov-04déc-04févr-05mars-05mai-05juin-05août-05sept-05oct-05déc-05janv-06mars-06
avr-06juin-06
$/t
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
2 600
2 800
3 000
3 200
3 400
Euro/t
alu spot $/t alu spot Euro/t
Euro/t
USD/t
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 32
CASTING ALUMINIUM : LCC FY 06 CASTING ALUMINIUM : LCC FY 06
West. Europe89%
Asia0%
Czech rep1%
Hungary10%
Eastern Europe
11%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 33
PMAPMA FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• TARGET INFLATION FY 07 : -2 % (w/o aluminium variation)
• MARKET TREND: risks & opportunities
– Fast & furious Aluminium price increase early 2006. Dec 05 to March 06 +40%. Impact:
• Pressure: + 20% (raw 50%)• LP gravity: + 12% (raw 30%)• sand: + 8% (raw 20%)
– Expect severe carry over in FY07 (lagged price rises on past 3 months)
– So far, impact Q3/Q2 = 7%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 34
PMAPMA FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
STRATEGY & ACTION PLAN
Replace Diace by LCC supplier• Auction dec 05: first tooling transferred
Increase coquilla volume in Romania
Find new sources in LCC/VLCC in 3 types of aluminium castings: Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey
Auctions if enough volume (but LS not so attractive)
Investigate Dourlet: hard to put in auction- single, critical customer- value analysis- engineering / purchasing approach
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 35
KPI / PMAKPI / PMA
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07
Spend in K € 1,200 K€ 1,404 K€ 1,375 K€Net Material Inflation 2.3% 2.9% -2.0%
LCCS (%) 11.0% 15.0%
e-SourcingK€ (M) Bid 120 K€ 200 K€average Results -16.0% -10.0%
Direct Material DPOTotal Averge Days 102 Days 101 Days 103 DaysK€ less than 30 days 125 K€ 88 K€
KPI / PMA
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 36
PLASTICSPLASTICS
EVOLUTION INDICE MOYEN FAMILLE PLASTIQUE (PLA)
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
Q402
Q103
Q203
Q303
Q403
Q104
Q204
Q304
Q404
Q105
Q205
Q305
Q405
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 37
PLASTICSPLASTICS
Date : 14/06/2006
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 (Mai)1 354 K€ 1 223 K€ 1 029 K€ 1 242 K€ 1 553 K€ 1 724 K€ 1 487 K€
1,4% -0,4% -5,0% -4,6% 0,6% -1,9%
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total articles achetés 247 252 228 249 240 265 254
Nombre articles = 80 % du CA 27 30 25 26 26 31 37
% achats sans code 1% 0% 1% 5% 5% 5% 6%
en K€ 396 K€ 322 K€ 310 K€ 379 K€ 586 K€ 573 K€ 483 K€
en % du Total 29,3% 26,4% 30,1% 30,5% 37,7% 33,2% 32,5%PLA750FO001 CAPOT DIODES 0 K€ 2 K€ 20 K€ 54 K€ 143 K€ 147 K€ 100 K€
PLA000PA013 POLYAMIDE 6+30% FIBRE DE VERRE 239 K€ 160 K€ 129 K€ 120 K€ 155 K€ 138 K€ 139 K€
PLA025IN004 SUPPORT BOBINE PL.LSA432 1 05 119 K€ 129 K€ 116 K€ 87 K€ 126 K€ 122 K€ 93 K€
PLA000PA001 POLYAMIDE 6/6 NOIR 30% F.V. 38 K€ 32 K€ 45 K€ 69 K€ 88 K€ 91 K€ 77 K€
PLA000RA000 MODELE 0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 48 K€ 73 K€ 75 K€ 75 K€
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total Fournisseurs 68 64 71 77 83 80 82
Nombre Fournisseurs > 15 K€ 13 11 11 15 14 17 18
en K€ 837 K€ 767 K€ 666 K€ 733 K€ 921 K€ 1 001 K€ 862 K€
en % du Total 61,8% 62,7% 64,7% 59,0% 59,3% 58,1% 57,9%495 K€ 385 K€ 296 K€ 337 K€ 370 K€ 380 K€ 367 K€
120 K€ 147 K€ 143 K€ 117 K€ 204 K€ 243 K€ 211 K€
0 K€ 2 K€ 20 K€ 74 K€ 161 K€ 174 K€ 140 K€
143 K€ 176 K€ 166 K€ 147 K€ 115 K€ 110 K€ 61 K€
79 K€ 56 K€ 40 K€ 57 K€ 72 K€ 95 K€ 83 K€
ARTICLES
Top 5 Fournisseursbase FY 05
FOURNISSEURS
SCHULMAN A.SA.
CDA DEVELOPPEM
BG COMPOSITES
DIFFUSION PLAS
ASHLAND PLASTI
CA en K€Inflation nette
SYNTHESE FAMILLE : PLASTIQUE (PLA)
Top 5 Articlesbase FY 05
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 38
PLASTICS : LCC FY 06 PLASTICS : LCC FY 06
Eastern Europe
5%
Hungary2%Czech rep
0%
Slovakia3%
West. Europe
95%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 39
PLAPLA FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• TARGET INFLATION FY 07 : -5%
• MARKET TREND: risks & opportunities
– Increase in materials linked to petroleum: +5% to +10% • Price tension on finished components +2% to + 6%• LS had reasonable price increase with Schulman in Jan 06 (8% on
ABS = +1.7% total from Schulman)
– Several W European component mfrs have moved to EE– CZ, SK, RO: revaluation of currency 8% to 10% 05/06 – No problem finding capacity on plastics market
• Price reductions possible if ready to change suppliers
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 40
PLA PLA FY 06 / FY 07FY 06 / FY 07
• STRATEGY & ACTION PLAN– Develop 1 or 2 sources in E Europe
• SK, RO, HO…..• Several sources identified
– Build on good savings following FY05 auction: new sources in Romania
– Reduce number of suppliers in LS factories– Plan new auctions if volume permits: good markets for auctions– Use auctions for tooling: 35% to 50% savings in March 05– Continue working group to find available raw materails for RM
auctions• Big problem in FY06: captive market too large (ULs)
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 41
KPI / PLAKPI / PLA
B
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07
Spend in K € 1,724 K€ 2,168 K€ 2,059 K€Net Material Inflation 0.6% -1.9% -5.0%
LCCS (%) 5.0% 8.0%
e-SourcingK€ (M) Bid 436 K€ 200 K€ 250 K€average Results -20.0% -10.0% -20.0%
Direct Material DPOTotal Averge Days 101 Days 106 Days 106 DaysK€ less than 30 days 60 K€ 44 K€ 100 K€
KPI / PLA
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 42
STAMPING PARTS STAMPING PARTS
EVOLUTION INDICE MOYEN FAMILLE PIECES DECOUPEES EMBOUTIES (PDE)
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
Q100
Q200
Q300
Q400
Q101
Q201
Q301
Q401
Q102
Q202
Q302
Q402
Q103
Q203
Q303
Q403
Q104
Q204
Q304
Q404
Q105
Q205
Q305
Q405
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 43
STAMPING PARTS STAMPING PARTS
Date : 14/06/2006
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 (Mai)1 811 K€ 1 593 K€ 1 279 K€ 1 881 K€ 2 527 K€ 3 010 K€ 3 489 K€
0,0% -2,5% -1,5% -2,0% 4,2% -1,0%
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total articles achetés 595 568 618 676 717 798 877
Nombre articles = 80 % du CA 107 126 140 108 101 119 131
% achats sans code 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0%
en K€ 55 K€ 152 K€ 110 K€ 369 K€ 601 K€ 609 K€ 496 K€
en % du Total 3,1% 9,6% 8,6% 19,6% 23,8% 20,2% 14,2%PDE144CM004 CHEMISE INTERIEURE INOX 5 K€ 110 K€ 64 K€ 113 K€ 217 K€ 225 K€ 174 K€
PDE334PE001 TRAPPE B.à B.LSA432 0 K€ 0 K€ 11 K€ 84 K€ 106 K€ 119 K€ 83 K€
PDE999GR019 GRILLE SORTIE D'AIR LSA432 0 K€ 0 K€ 11 K€ 66 K€ 83 K€ 99 K€ 75 K€
PDE552SA001 SANG.ENTREE AIR E1MM 0 K€ 0 K€ 10 K€ 58 K€ 79 K€ 94 K€ 87 K€
PDE352DA007 DISQUE ACCOUPLEMENT D352.42MM 51 K€ 42 K€ 15 K€ 49 K€ 116 K€ 72 K€ 78 K€
FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06
Nombre Total Fournisseurs 133 134 117 121 132 118 116
Nombre Fournisseurs > 15 K€ 23 22 22 24 26 25 27
en K€ 543 K€ 438 K€ 350 K€ 908 K€ 1 515 K€ 2 002 K€ 2 130 K€
en % du Total 30,0% 27,5% 27,3% 48,3% 60,0% 66,5% 61,0%0 K€ 0 K€ 56 K€ 346 K€ 472 K€ 577 K€ 1 061 K€
2 K€ 7 K€ 34 K€ 159 K€ 261 K€ 529 K€ 310 K€
379 K€ 253 K€ 111 K€ 207 K€ 351 K€ 383 K€ 330 K€
162 K€ 178 K€ 149 K€ 167 K€ 331 K€ 286 K€ 171 K€
0 K€ 0 K€ 0 K€ 29 K€ 100 K€ 228 K€ 257 K€
CA en K€Inflation nette
SYNTHESE FAMILLE : PIECES DECOUPEES EMBOUTIES (PDE)
Top 5 Articlesbase FY 05
GMP INDUSTRIE
ARTICLES
KOOPRON S.R.O.
VANEK JIRI
SPECITUBES
Top 5 Fournisseursbase FY 05
FOURNISSEURSBALBONI A.B. S
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 44
STAMPING PARTS : LCC FY 06 STAMPING PARTS : LCC FY 06
West. Europe49%
Asia1%
Czech rep49%
Hungary1%
Eastern Europe
50%
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 45
PDEPDE FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• TARGET INFLATION FY 07 : -5%
• MARKET TREND: risks & opportunities
– Price of steel remains high
• Temporary shortage in 05 but OK in 06 / 07• Cold rolled (+40%) & hot rolled (+50%) in 05/04: same level today
– % Raw material in finished product now at much higher levels
– W. European companies coming back into the game on volume markets:• Well equipped: productivity• Sometimes competitive vs EE (eg. New account TCIN)
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 46
PDEPDE FY 06 / FY 07 FY 06 / FY 07
• STRATEGY & ACTION PLAN– Continue to contain price rise requests in EE: suppliers passed on 70% of
raw increase in 05 – Use Asian pressure from previous auctions
• Price savings• Helps in containment elsewhere
– Think twice before doing new auctions in Asia• Big material inflation since 05 auctions…
– Find new suppliers in VLCC for high volume: RO, BG, UK? • Logistic costs an issue
– Target newly approved LCC suppliers for medium volume: eg. Hundec Hungary
• prices –20% to –40% depending on factories (DEI, IMI, GP)• Subsidiary of French company: already has logistic circuit to France• €200k account in FY07 / 08?
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 47
KPI / PDE
FY 05 FY 06 FY 07
Spend in K€ 3,010 K€ 4,461 K€ 4,237 K€
Net Material Inflation 4.2% -1.0% -5.0%
LCCS (%) 51.0% 60.0%
e-Sourcing
K€ (M) Bid 660 K€ 0 K€ 250 K€
average Results -40.0% -20.0%
Direct Material DPO
Total Averge Days 73 Days 72 Days 72 Days
K€ less than 30 days 1,361 K€ 13 K€ 100 K€
COMMODITIES REVIEW 22&23 June06 21/04/23 00:41 48
MECHANICAL Parts (inc FY07 plan)MECHANICAL Parts (inc FY07 plan)CA FY 05
K€C/O in FY
05Inflation
06 C/O Out FY 06
CA FY 06K€
C/O in FY 06
Inflation 07
PUSPIECES USINEES HORS PIECES DECOLLETEES 8 944 -0,4% 0,4% 1,6% 8 975 1,6% -2,0%
PMOPIECE MOULEE EN
FONTE GRISE6 074 1,1% 3,3% 1,5% 6 277 1,5% -3,0%
PDEPIECE METALLIQUE DECOUPEE ET/OU EMBOUTIE
3 010 0,7% -1,0% -3,7% 2 978 -3,7% -5,0%
PLAPLASTIQUES MAT PREM,SEMI-PRODUITS 1 724 0,3% -1,9% -1,8% 1 691 -1,8% -5,0%
PMAPIECE MOULEE EN ALUMINIUM 1 200 -0,4% 2,9% 2,6% 1 235 2,6% -2,0%
PDC PIECES DECOLLETEES 821 0,0% -0,9% 0,1% 814 0,1% -2,1%
TOTAL 21 772 0,3% 0,9% 0,6% 21 969 0,6% -2,9%