of 17
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
1/17
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
2/17
Global economic overview
A recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report states that in a full potentialscenario in which women play an identicalrole in labour markets to that of men, as much as $28 trillion, or 26%, could be added to global annual GDP by 2025.
US economy
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged after the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting(Federal Open Market Committee meet) on 28 October.
Significantly, the US Federal Reserve dropped previous warnings about global risks, and instead signalled that itwould consider a rate increase at its next meeting in December.
Economic data released on 29 October 2015 showed that the US gross domestic product increased at a 1.5% annualrate in the third quarter, slowing from a 3.9% rise in the second quarter.
Earlier, data released on 2 October 2015, showed US non-farm payrolls rose by 142,000 in September, considerablylower than market expectations.
European economy
The preliminary data released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, showed consumer priceindex at 0.0% m-o-m in October, up from -0.1% in September.
ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank could move next month to expand stimulus measures inthe face of sluggish global growth that was exacerbating worries about persistently low inflation in the euro zone.
Asian economy
China cut interest rates and lenders' reserve requirements on 23 October to support its ailing economy. The People'sBank of China cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35%, and the reserve requirementratio for commercial banks was cut by 0.5 percentage points to 17.5%. This is the sixth cut in the last 12 months.
Latest readings of China's mammoth manufacturing sector painted a deteriorating picture in the world's second-biggest economy that suggests the need for further stimulus. The final Caixin / Markit PMI, meanwhile, fell to a freshsix-and-a-half-year low of 47.2 in September as against an earlier flash estimate of 47.
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
3/17
Indian economic overview
Overall, the Indian rupee appreciated against the dollar inOctober 2015.
The USDINR RBI reference rate closed October at 65.2231,
as against the September close of 65.7418 (i.e. m-o-mchange of -0.79%)
For major part of the month, the rupee gained against theUS currency on selling of greenback by banks and exportersamid foreign capital inflows in the equity market.
However, at the fag end of the month, some gains in the
rupee was reversed as US Federal Reserve in its FOMC meethinted at raising rates in their next policy meeting.
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
In its October 2015 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF expects India to retain its recently acquired status as theworld's fastest growing major economy even as it pared the country's growth forecast for the current fiscal.
While the Finance Ministry said the economy should grow by at least 7.5% this year, the IMF pegged its estimate at7.3%, the same as in the previous year. That's lower than the 7.5% forecast in the July 2015 WEO Update.
India's merchandise exports continued to decline for tenth straight month at 24.3% to $21.85 billion in September2015 over a year ago. Meanwhile, merchandise imports also dipped 25.4% to $32.32 billion.
The trade deficit narrowed 27.6% to $10.5 billion in September 2015 from $14.47 billion in September 2014.
The all-India general CPI inflation increased to 4.4% in September, compared with 3.7% in August. The correspondingprovisional inflation rate for rural area was 5% and urban area 3.6% in September as against 4.5% and 2.8%
respectively in August. The core CPI inflation rose to 4.1% in September from 3.9% in August.
India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) accelerated to a 34-month high of 6.4% in August 2015 over a year agocompared with the revised growth of 4.1% in July 2015.
Source: RBI
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
64.5000
64.7500
65.0000
65.2500
65.5000
65.7500
RBI USDINR reference rate
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
4/17
Bullion
Gold
MCX Gold December 2015 futures contract closed Octoberat`26,499 per 10 g, registering a monthly rise of 1.59%.
While expectations of a delay in U.S. Fed rate hike pushedgold prices up till mid-month, its hawkish stance followingthe FOMC meet later, reversed some of the gains.
Early in the month, release of weak U.S. September jobsdata, raised expectations of a delayed Fed rate hike andhelped gold prices to rise.
In addition, Russian military action in Syria also offered somesafe-haven support to gold prices.
Silver
MCX Silver December 2015 futures contract moved up by
5.62% in October, closing the month at`
36,490 per kg. Like gold, silver prices too moved up on expectations of a
delayed Fed rate hike.
A brief rally in base metal prices in early October toosupported silver prices.
However, further price rises were arrested on the hawkish
tone of the U.S. Fed following the FOMC meet late October.
Source: MCX
Source: MCX
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
5/17
Base metals
Copper
MCX Copper November 2015 futures contract prices slippedby 1.79% in October to close the month at`336.55 per kg.
An early month announcement by Glencore, a major globalminer, of output cuts kept up copper prices.
Later, concerns over subdued demand, especially fromChina, and the U.S. Fed stand, pushed copper prices down.
Rising supplies, substantiated by ICSG estimates, showedthat there was a surplus of 10,000 tonnes in the first sevenmonths as against a deficit of 560,000 tonnes a year earlier,keeping the pressure on copper prices.
Nickel
MCX Nickel October 2015 futures contract declined 3.01% inOctober, with a month-close at`660.50 per kg.
Though the Chinese and U.S. economic factors pulled downnickel prices, a major fall was averted by the news of aninterest rate cut by China and on announcement of mineoutput cut by Glencore.
Source: MCX
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
The general trend in base metal prices was downward, albeit in varied proportions, mainly due to subdued demand from China.
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
6/17
Base metals
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium October 2015 futures contract plunged7.96% in October, closing the month at`94.30 per kg.
Aluminium prices moved down on concerns over aworsening supply glut amid weakening demand in China.
Expectations that China might soon reduce on-grid powertariffs for industrial users, raised possibilities of continuedaluminium production. Electricity accounts for more than40% of the aluminium production cost. This possibility of
continued production would add to existing supply glut.
Lead
MCX Lead October 2015 futures contract prices closedOctober at`109.55 per kg, down 0.41% from last month.
Early in the month, lead prices moved up on output cut
announcement by Glencore. However by month-end, weakglobal demand, esp. from China, reversed the price rise.
Chinas shrinking lead production averted a big fall in prices.
Zinc
MCX Zinc October 2015 futures contract moved down1.89% in October to close the month at`109.05 per kg.
Spurt in zinc prices after Glencores announcement that itwould curtail zinc production was reversed with releases ofweak U.S. and Chinese industrial output numbers.
Source: MCX
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
7/17
Energy
Crude oil
MCX Crude Oil futures moved up 2.99% in October to closethe month at`3,068 per barrel.
The prices moved up on growing expectations that globaloil production would soon decline and on reports of a dropin the number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S.
Russian military operations in Syria raised the risks of oil-flow disruptions in the region and aided oil price rise.
However, a few downbeat data on the global economyraised worries about oil demand that was coupled withrecord production from OPEC, which reined in a major risein prices.
Natural gas
MCX Natural Gas futures slumped 8.82% in October 2015,closing the month at`152 per mmBtu.
Concerns over weak gas demand in the U.S amid rising U.S.gas stockpiles led to the price decline.
Further, worries that the forecast of a moderate weather inthe U.S would limit indoor-heating demand for gas andkeep the market oversupplied kept the pressure on prices.
It must be borne in mind that natural gas is used as theprimary heating fuel in a large number of Americanhouseholds. *Prices of crude oil and natural gas refer to the most active futures contracts on MCX
Source: MCX
Source: MCX
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
8/17
Agriculture
Crude palm oil
MCX October CPO futures contract closed the month at`400.80 per 10 kg, down 3.6% due to oversupply of both
CPO and soya bean oil. Due to higher production and lower exports, palm oil
inventory in Malaysia rose 5.46% m-o-m to 2.63 milliontonnes (Mt) in September, the highest since December 2012,according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
Societe Generale de Surveillances report showed that
Malaysias palm oil exports from October 1 to October 20decreased by 11.8% to 0.941 Mt compared with 1.122 Mtfrom September 1 to September 20.
Cotton
MCX October Cotton futures contract closed the month at`
15,580 per bale, down 1.3% due to increased arrivals. Earlier, cotton prices rose after data from Ministry of
Agriculture revealed that area under cotton was down 8% at11.64 million hectares compared with a year ago.
Cotton prices in the first half of the month were alsosupported by news of crop damage in northern India due to
a white-fly attack. Later, cotton prices reversed their gains as arrivals picked up
from major producing belts amidst sluggish domestic andexport demand.
Source: MCX
Source: MCX
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
9/17
Agriculture
Cardamom
MCX Cardamom November 2015 futures contract fell by8.7% in October to close the month at`760.20 per kg due to
continuous arrivals of fresh crops and lower-than-expectedfestive demand.
Recent rainfall and conducive weather in cardamom-producing areas also increased the expectations of higherproduction. Between August 1 to October 24, 2015, arrivalstouched 8,878 tonnes compared with 4,820 tonnes during
same period last year. Additionally, good crop output reports from Guatemala also
kept exporters at bay on expectations of further weakeningof prices leading to a price fall.
Mentha oil
MCX Mentha Oil October 2015 futures contract fell by 0.2%to close at`900.60 per kg on October 29, 2015.
Mentha oil prices remained under pressure early during themonth with fall in arrivals; however, as the demand frompharma and other industries improved prices picked up.
Additionally, buying by exporters ahead of a long winter in
the northern states amidst lower arrivals also helpedimprove market sentiments.
Source: MCX
Source: MCX
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
10/17
MCX top 10 commodities, October 2015
CommodityAverage Daily Value
(` crore)Units for Volume and OI Average Daily Volume Average Daily Open Interest
CRUDE OIL 6,494.89 Thousand Barrels 21,310.78 3,322.10
GOLD 4,560.97 Tonnes 17.02 8.89
SILVER 3,567.03 Tonnes 966.72 497.42
COPPER 1,837.54 Tonnes 53,452.31 23,274.87
ZINC 1,568.20 Tonnes 1,37,591.76 29,790.52
NATURALGAS 1,146.50 Thousand MMBTU 73,283.63 25,284.17
LEAD 1,089.75 Tonnes 96,568.90 19,619.19
ALUMINIUM 817.24 Tonnes 82,769.24 74,591.62
NICKEL 797.50 Tonnes 11,783.44 6,448.94CRUDE PALM OIL 191.40 Tonnes 45,345.71 79,807.62
Source: MCXAggregate MCX monthly turnover 4,68,663 crore | Average daily turnover 22,317 crore
Source: Respective Exchanges' websiteSource: Respective Exchanges' website
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Agri Bullion Energy Metal Grand TotalMCX80.95%
NCDEX18.74%
NMCE
0.31%
Exchange-wise market share, October 2015
Note: Data refers to all variants of each commodity
MCX segment-wise market share, October 2015
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
11/17
Delivery at MCX in October 2015
Commodities Location Quantity UnitValue
(
crore)
GOLD Ahmedabad 412 kg 106.51
GOLD MINI Ahmedabad 1354.8 kg 350.04GOLD GUINEA Ahmedabad 0.504 kg 0.13
GOLD PETAL (MUMBAI) Mumbai 2.416 kg 0.64
MENTHA OIL Barabanki & Chandausi (UP) 178560 kg 18.45
COTTON Jalna & Kadi 600 bale 0.93
CARDAMOM Vandanmedu (Kerala) 11 MT 1.56
Exchange deliverable warehouse stock position as on October 31, 2015
Commodity Delivery Centres Quantity Unit
CARDAMOM Vandanmedu (Kerala) 37.00 MT
COTTON Kadi (Gujarat); Jalna (Maharashtra) 600.00 bales
MENTHAOIL Barabanki & Chandausi (UP) 6,293.44 MT
GOLD Ahmedabad 330.00 kg
GOLD GUINEA Ahmedabad & Mumbai 22.94 kg
GOLD MINI Ahmedabad & Mumbai 130.70 kg
SILVER (30 KG) Ahmedabad 11,862.38 kg
SILVER (1 KG) Delhi 287.00 kg
Source: MCX
Source: MCX
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
12/17
Regulatory developments
SEBI Circulars / Regulations
October 21, 2015 Risk management for regional commodity derivative exchanges
The circular stipulates the following norms, among others, for regional exchanges, to be complied by April 01, 2016:a) Member deposits. Exchanges shall continue to keep exposure free member deposits at the current level.b) Ordinary margins. Exchanges shall levy a minimum ordinary margin of 4% on the open outstanding positions.
MCX circulars
October 30, 2015
Allotment of code to MCXMembers of the exchange were notified that the SEBI had allotted code number 34 to MCX for trading and settlementoperations (MCX/T&S/311/2015).
October 30, 2015 Reminder on uploading KYC details and documents of the clients
Members were reminded that the last day for uploading the KYC details and documents of all their existing clients on
the KRA system/server is December 01, 2015 (MCX/COMP/303/2015).October 16, 2015 Online submission of application form by existing members for registration under SEBI
To facilitate the registration of its existing members, the exchange has provided an online portal through whichmembers are required to apply for registration under the SEBI (MCX/MEM/287/2015).
October 01, 2015
Turnover fees for members dealing in commodity derivativesMCX made its members aware about the turnover fees payable to the SEBI. Turnover fees is payable @0.0002 % of theturnover (Rs.20/- per crore).The turnover fees are applicable from September 28, 2015, onwards (MCX/MEM/275/2015).
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
13/17
Key developments in international markets, October 2015
Shanghai Futures Exchange will build an international platform to allow direct access to foreign investors. After it
launches an international crude oil contract, it will work on other metal contracts.
China and Germany have formally agreed to establish a Frankfurt-based exchange to trade a number of renminbi-
denominated products; a further sign of Europes aggressive courting of Beijing for financial business.
Dalian Commodity Exchange and Borsa stanbul signed a MoU with to cooperate in information sharing, product
promotion, and staff exchange.
Singapore Exchange is planning to create an Asian benchmark for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and break the decade-
old reliance on oil-linked pricing, hoping to take a greater role in expanding the spot market.
CME Group plans to raise transaction fees on a host of products starting January 1, 2016, pending regulatory
approval. Fees for members to trade agricultural options on CME's electronic Globex platform will rise to 36 cents,
from the current 25 cents, to match the fees on agricultural futures. Non-member fees on agricultural options traded
on Globex will rise to $1.34, from the current 70 cents, matching the fees on its agricultural futures.
CME Group will launch a new physical delivery lead futures contract, priced in dollars, for delivery in the U.S. andEurope, beginning November 23.
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) plans to introduce its second lot of London Metal Mini Futures
contractsLondon Nickel Mini Futures, London Tin Mini Futures and London Lead Mini Futurespending regulatory
approval.
CME Group and China Construction Bank will begin the physical delivery of renminbi for new futures contracts inLondon, CME Group said on October 19. The contracts, the subject of a memorandum of understanding announced
by the two companies on October 19, will be listed on CME Group's European exchange, CME Europe.
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
14/17
Bagli (Madhya Pradesh),October 07
Jorhat (Assam),October 07
Barbil (Odisha),October 13
Banasthali University (Rajasthan)October 12
Coimbatore(Tamil Nadu),October 17
Delegation from BhutanOctober 26
Awareness programmes
In order to educate various stakeholders of the commodity markets, MCX conducted 21 awareness programmes and2 educational initiatives across the country in October 2015.
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
15/17
Village Belati (Maharashtra),October 01
Village Pathri (Maharashtra),October 07
Village Dhamangaon (Maharashtra),October 26
Village Kukda (Gujarat),October 12
Village Liya (Gujarat),October 30
Village Jasapar (Gujarat),October 31
Farmers training programmes
During October 2015, 11 farmers training programmes were conducted by MCX, covering 319 farmers .
Macroeconomic
overview
MCX trade
statistics
Awareness
initiatives
Regulatory
developments
Delivery at
MCX
International market
developments
Global economic
calendar Dec. 2015
Price movement
October 2015
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
16/17
7/24/2019 CommodityConnect NOV 2015
17/17
Commodity Connect is not intended as professional counsel or investment advice, and is not to be used as such. While the exchange has made every effort to assure the
accuracy, correctness and reliability of the information contained herein, any affirmation of fact in the CommodityConnect shall not create an express or implied warrantythat
it is correct. Commodity Connect is made available on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claims, demands or cause of action. MCX shall
alsonot be liable for any damageor loss of anykind,howsoever causedas a result (director indirect)of theuse of theinformationor datain thisCommodityConnect.
MCX2015. Allrightsreserved.
Please send your feedback to: [email protected] address: Exchange Square, Chakala, Andheri (East),Mumbai - 400 093, India, Tel. No. 91-22-6731 8888,CIN: L51909MH2002PLC135594, [email protected], www.mcxindia.com
