THE CITY OF NEW YORKOFFICE OF THE COMPTROLLER
June 19, 2019
COMMON INVESTMENT MEETINGPublic Session
MARKET OVERVIEW
3
Market Returns: Q1-2019
Source: State Street
*Average of consultant long-term arithmetic expected market returns, as of 2016
Asset Class IndexFirst Quarter
Returns 2019 Fiscal YTD 3 Year 5 Year Expected*
Equities - U.S. Russell 3000 14.04% 4.70% 13.48% 10.36% 7.80%
Equities - Developed Intl MSCI World ex USA IMI Net
10.52% -3.22% 7.29% 2.40% 8.90%
Equities - Emerging Intl MSCI EMERGING MARKETS
9.92% 0.60% 10.68% 3.68% 11.00%
Debt - US Govt Long Duration
FTSE Treasury 10+ 4.70% 5.84% 1.48% 5.53%
Debt - US Government NYC Treas/Agency +5 3.37% 5.57% 1.22% 3.67% 2.80%Debt - Investment Grade NYC IG Credit 4.72% 5.82% 3.45% 3.55% 3.40%Debt - High Yield FTSE BB & B 7.29% 5.28% 8.05% 4.45% 6.10%
Sheet1
Asset ClassIndexFirst Quarter Returns 2019Fiscal YTD3 Year5 YearExpected*
Equities - U.S.Russell 300014.04%4.70%13.48%10.36%7.80%
Equities - Developed IntlMSCI World ex USA IMI Net10.52%-3.22%7.29%2.40%8.90%
Equities - Emerging IntlMSCI EMERGING MARKETS9.92%0.60%10.68%3.68%11.00%
Debt - US Govt Long DurationFTSE Treasury 10+4.70%5.84%1.48%5.53%
Debt - US GovernmentNYC Treas/Agency +53.37%5.57%1.22%3.67%2.80%
Debt - Investment GradeNYC IG Credit4.72%5.82%3.45%3.55%3.40%
Debt - High YieldFTSE BB & B7.29%5.28%8.05%4.45%6.10%
What changed in Q1?• Reduced global growth concerns- US –government shutdown ended, FCI easing - Optimism on US– China trade negotiations• Fed dovish pivot- Policy rate - End of quantitative tightening - Inflation strategy
4
Market Returns Q1 – 2019
• Tightening of financial conditions
5
Market Returns Q1 – 2019
Tighter (slower growth)
Looser (stronger growth)
• FCI is derived from weighted average of 10-yr US Treasury yield, broad dollar index, broad equity index and investment grade spreads.
• FCI tightened into year-end• Given Fed’s goal of higher inflation, Fed will adopt policies for continued easing of FCI
Source: Bloomberg
• Change in expectations of Fed policy
6
Market Returns Q1 – 2019
Q4 2018
Investment Grade Credit Spreads +47 bpsHigh Yield Credit Spread +210 bpsS&P 500 Total Return -13.5 %
Q1 2019
Investment Grade Credit Spreads -34 bpsHigh Yield Credit Spread -135 bpsS&P 500 Total Return +13.6 %
• Fed dovish pivot- Inability to achieve 2% target inflation
7
Market Returns Q1 – 2019
Source: Bloomberg
1. US – China/Mexico/Europe trade policy2. Federal Reserve and future interest rate
policy3. US equity earnings and valuations
8
Current Market Themes
1. US – China/Mexico/Europe trade negotiations - Trade negotiations with China have deteriorated, Trump threatening additional tariffs
on remaining $300B of imports. - G-20 leaders Summit June 28-29 in Japan, Trump and Xi expected to meet. - US-EU auto tariff decision is looming.- Tariff implications – expected impacts on growth +inflation
- Tariff (and threat of tariffs) increase economic uncertainty, resulting in downside risks to global growth, business confidence and investment.
- Corporations evaluating changes to global supply chains.
9
Current Market Themes
Growth Core inflation
raised tariff .1 to .2 +.2addl. 25 % .4 +.5auto tariff .2 +.3
2. Federal Reserve and future interest rate policyI. FOMC meeting todayII. Federal Reserve, three possible easing regimes Easing to offset recession Insurance easing, to sustain recovery Average inflation targeting, easing to promote higher inflation
10
Current Market Themes
3) US Equities – earnings and valuations1. Q1’19 earnings largely as expected; Q2’19 earnings announcement mid-July2. Earnings concerns include 1) rising labor costs 2) tariff concerns and 3) slowing revenue3. Equity buyback programs slowing 4. What is appropriate P/E multiple going forward, given downside earnings risks vs. dovish Fed?
11
Current Market Themes
Year Earnings % % Growth
2016 $118 .5 %2017 $132 11.8 %
2018 $162 22.7 % (~10% of growth from cut in corporate tax rate
2019 E $178 $170 9.8 % 4.9 % 2020 E $180 5.9 %
Earnings/multiples
14x 15x 16x 17x
$160 2240 2400 2560 2720
$170 2380 2550 2720 2890
$180 2520 2700 2880 3060
US equity earnings ’19 earnings and PE multiples
Earnings/multiples
14x 15x 16x 17x
$170 2380 2550 2890 2720$180 2520 2700 2880 3060
$190 2660 2850 3040 3230
’20 earnings and PE multiples
12
Current Market Themes• 1-year forward Price-Earnings Multiple
Source: Bloomberg
Portfolio Update – Q1’191) Rebalancing activity - Extended US Treasury duration - Rebalanced Developed International Equity to target- Increased underweight in Investment Grade Credit 2) Portfolio concerns - US Equities- concerns include late cycle dynamics, downside risks to earning estimates, equity valuations historically expensive, US elections in November 2020.-US Treasuries- yield curve inverted, yields biased to continue lower, lower yields vs. yield curve steepening- Credit spreads- spread widening risk on both IG and MBS
13
Q1 - Asset Allocation Review
14
Q1 - Asset Allocation Review - Growth
Source: State Street
Relative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights
15
Q1 - Asset Allocation Review – Inflation ProtectionRelative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights
Source: State Street
16
Q1 - Asset Allocation Review - Deflation Protection
Source: State Street
Relative Mix to Adjusted New Policy Weights
17
Core Bond Portfolio Duration, Actual Vs. Target (as of 03/31/2019)
Source: State Street
TRS NYCERS Police Fire BERS
Original Duration 6.19 6.34 6.51 6.39 6.25
New Duration Target
11.76 8.43 11.54 11.73 8.07
Duration as of 12/31/18
9.27 (55%)
7.53 (57%)
10.55(80%)
8.99(49%)
7.08(46%)
Duration as of 3/31/19
10.12(71%)
8.10 (84%)
10.43 (78%)
10.38(75%)
7.96 (94%)
QUESTIONS?
PERFORMANCE REPORTING1st Quarter 2019
20
NYC Retirement Systems AUM (% , in millions)
Source: State Street
$200,675m Total AUM for all 5 Systems as of March 31, 2019
37%, 74,806
33%, 66,007
20%, 39,729
7%, 13,887
3%, 6,245
TRS
NYCERS
POLICE
FIRE
BERS
Assets (in millions)
TRS
NYCERS
Police
Fire
BERS
Net of fees in public asset classes are recorded on an accrual basis.Private markets data is reported on a lagged basis
NYC Pension SystemPortfolio Std
Dev - 1 yr. 3 Month Fiscal YTD One Year Trailing Three Year Trailing
BERS 8.62 8.17% 3.52% 4.36% 10.38%
TRS 7.92 7.57% 3.83% 4.42% 8.93%
FIRE 7.65 7.43% 3.60% 4.69% 9.21%
NYCERS 7.57 7.11% 3.61% 4.29% 9.05%
POLICE 7.57 7.21% 3.52% 4.50% 9.34%
Public Mkt Equiv 65/35 9.22% 3.35% 4.74% 8.19%
Median Fund - TUCS 7.01% 3.32% 4.65% 8.90%
21
Total NYC Pension Fund Net Performance as of 03/31/2019
Source: State Street
Sheet1
NYC Pension SystemPortfolio Std Dev - 1 yr.3 MonthFiscal YTDOne Year Trailing Three Year Trailing
BERS8.628.17%3.52%4.36%10.38%
TRS7.927.57%3.83%4.42%8.93%
FIRE7.657.43%3.60%4.69%9.21%
NYCERS7.577.11%3.61%4.29%9.05%
POLICE7.577.21%3.52%4.50%9.34%
Public Mkt Equiv 65/359.22%3.35%4.74%8.19%
Median Fund - TUCS7.01%3.32%4.65%8.90%
22
Quarter to Date Return as of 03/31/2019 – Total Portfolio
757 714
43
711 671
40
721 713
9
743 717
26
817 723
94
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
QTD Portfolio QTD Benchmark QTD Excess
bps
TRS
NYCERS
Police
Fire
BERS
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N, p.14; F p.15 ; P p.16 B p.17)
Source: State Street
171 Bps Assumed Rate of Return (7%)
23
Quarter to Date as of 03/31/2019 Excess Return – Total Portfolio
43
(50)
93 40
(55)
95 9
(42)
51 26
(44)
70 94
(48)
142
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
QTD Total Excess Return QTD Asset Allocation QTD Manager Value Added
bps
TRS
NYCERS
Police
Fire
BERS
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T, N, p.14; F p.15 ; P p.16 B p.17)
24
Value Added – Total Domestic Equity
4 20 25
-40 -36 -30-16 -47 -29-1
-45-17
27
-3
46
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 28.4%NYCERS: 29.13%POLICE: 30.94%FIRE: 29.53%BERS: 31.86%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB T p. 29; N p.30; F p.31; P p.32; B p.33)
25
Value Added – Total World Ex-USA
125
-61
187112
10
205149
-4
223143
8
245301
-111
477
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 11.5%NYCERS: 12.65%POLICE: 8.83%FIRE: 8.43%BERS: 12.26%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB; T p.30; N p.31; F p.33; P, B p.34)
26
Value Added – Total Emerging Markets
11349
-2
82
-5 -21-27
27 41
-31
3570
-122
-205
46
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 8.79%NYCERS: 7.21%POLICE: 5.99%FIRE: 6.18%BERS: 7.12%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return
27
Value Added – Total Structured Fixed Income
-74 -57-35 -63-74 -47-67 -47
-41-76
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 21.54%NYCERS: 19.05%POLICE: 15.94%FIRE: 15.74%BERS: 19.64%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
bps
Note: The blended benchmark reflects the current asset allocation. No Data for the Trailing 3yr.
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB; T p.33; N p.35; B p.36; F p.37; P p.38)
28
Value Added – High Yield
-16
2
-64-24 -30 -45
-18-62 -65
-28-92
-52-35-17
15
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 4.9%NYCERS: 4.36%POLICE: 5.24%FIRE: 5.78%BERS: 4.55%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB; T p.33; N p.35; B p.36; F p.37; P p.38)
29
Value Added – Bank Loans
-33 -32-84
-12 -26-56
-24 -25 -49-48 -47 -75
-1-52 -35
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 2.38%NYCERS: 1.77%POLICE: 1.66%FIRE: 1.51%BERS: 1.95%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB; T p.33; N p.35; B p.36; F p.37; P p.39)
30
Value Added – Economically Targeted Investments
2789
-21
38
121
130
102
-16
1652
-7
2983
8
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
TRS: 0.85%NYCERS: 1.28%POLICE: 1.02%FIRE: 0.74%BERS: 0.58%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
bps
Basis Points of Excess Return (SSB; T p.33; N p.35; B p.36; F p.37; P p.39)
Value Added- Hedge FundsBasis Points of Excess Return
-307
2
98
-302
26
110
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
QTD FYTD 3 Year Trailing
POLICE: 6.53%
FIRE: 5.84%
Source: State Street
Weights as of03/31/2019
31
bps
Value Added - Hedge FundsBasis Points of Excess Return (SSB F p.35; P p.36)
32
Hedge Fund Performance Less Tactical Trade
Source: Aksia
Q1 2019 FYTD 3 Year
FIRE 2.2% 1.7% 6.3%
POLICE 2.2% 1.4% 6.2%
HFRI+100 4.9% 0.4% 5.0%
33
Tactical Trade Performance
Source: Aksia
Q1 2019POLICE & FIRE FYTD
Tactical Hedge Fund Trade -0.7.% -6.5%RUSSELL 3000 14.0% 4.7%Underperformance -14.7% -11.2%
PRIVATE MARKET DATA
35
Value Added - Opportunistic Fixed Income (OFI)
112 116160
118
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Excess Return Since Inception; PME Benchmark: 50% JP Morgan Global High Yield 50% CS Leveraged Loans as of 03/31/19
TRS - 10/24/2007
NYCERS - 10/24/2007
Police - 10/24/2007
Fire - 10/24/2007
BERS - N/A
Inception Date
300bps Target
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalent
bps
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME.
36
Value Added - Private Equity
82 25
135 189
283
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Excess Return Since Inception; The PE Benchmark is the Russell 3000 + 300 bps as of 12/31/18
TRS - 07/08/99
NYCERS - 03/29/99
Police - 03/29/99
Fire - 03/29/99
BERS - 07/20/06
Inception Date
300bps Target
Source: StepStone Group & Hamilton Lane
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalent
bps
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME.
37
Private Equity Value Added – PME Spread By Vintage Year as of 12/31/18
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
PRE-2011 2011-2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pre-2011 2011-2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TRS - PME Spread -0.9% 7.2% 4.2% 7.0% 5.0% 9.8% 13.6% 17.4% NYCERS - PME Spread -1.0% 6.5% 3.5% 7.1% 5.1% 10.3% 12.3% 17.5% Police - PME Spread 0.1% 7.1% 3.8% 8.6% 4.8% 10.5% 12.2% 17.5% Fire - PME Spread 0.5% 7.3% 3.8% 9.2% 4.9% 10.6% 12.5% 17.4% BERS - PME Spread 0.1% 9.1% 8.3% 4.7% 10.6% 13.7% 17.5%
TRS - PME Spread NYCERS - PME Spread Police - PME Spread Fire - PME Spread BERS - PME Spread
Perc
enta
ge
Source: StepStone Group & Hamilton Lane
N/A
38
Value Added - Private Real Estate - Core
196
6
117 108
442
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Excess Return Since Inception; Core PME = 40% Equities Russell 3000 & 60% Barclay Agg. as of 12/31/18
TRS - 9/28/2006
NYCERS - 9/28/2006
Police - 9/28/2006
Fire - 9/28/2006
BERS - 12/13/2010
Inception Date
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp
s
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the Core PME Return.
39
Value Added - Private Real Estate – Non-Core
524
296210
63
985
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Excess Return Since Inception; Non-core PME = 60% Equities Russell 3000 & 40% Barclay Agg. as of 12/31/18
TRS - 12/6/2002
NYCERS - 12/6/2002
Police - 12/6/2002
Fire - 12/6/2002
BERS - 04/11/2011
Inception Date
Source: State Street
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp
s
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the Non-core PME Return.
40
Private Real Estate (Non-Core) Value Added - PME Spread By Vintage Year as of 12/31/18
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
PRE-2011 2011-2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Pre-2011 2011-2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TRS - PME Spread 1.8% 8.3% 9.3% 9.1% 6.7% 8.3% 7.5% 9.7% NYCERS - PME Spread -0.3% 9.8% 9.3% 11.0% 7.6% 9.4% 10.6% 9.7% Police - PME Spread -2.9% 10.7% 9.2% 11.6% 7.7% 13.7% 10.6% 9.6% Fire - PME Spread -6.3% 11.2% 9.5% 11.4% 8.6% 14.6% 10.5% 9.6% BERS - PME Spread 9.7% 13.2% 15.1% 6.4% 7.4% 10.4% 12.1%
TRS - PME Spread NYCERS - PME Spread Police - PME Spread Fire - PME Spread BERS - PME Spread
Perc
enta
ge
Source: State Street
N/A
41
Value Added - Infrastructure
959 930 974 9651031
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Excess Return Since Inception; PME: 50% R3000 & 50% Barclays Agg. as of 12/31/18
TRS - 11/19/2013
NYCERS - 11/19/2013
Police - 11/19/2013
Fire - 11/19/2013
BERS - 11/19/2013
Inception Date
Source: StepStone Group
Basis Points of Cumulative IRR above Public Market Equivalentbp
s
The PME Spread is the difference between the IRR and the PME.
42
Infrastructure Value Added – PME Spread By Vintage Year as of 12/31/18
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
VINTAGE - 2013 VINTAGE - 2014 VINTAGE - 2015 VINTAGE - 2016
Vintage - 2013 Vintage - 2014 Vintage - 2015 Vintage - 2016 TRS - PME Spread 7.8% 10.5% 5.3% NYCERS - PME Spread 7.5% 9.9% 5.6% Police - PME Spread 7.5% 11.2% 5.3% Fire - PME Spread 7.5% 11.0% 5.4% BERS - PME Spread 7.1% 11.4% 9.8%
TRS - PME Spread NYCERS - PME Spread Police - PME Spread Fire - PME Spread BERS - PME Spread
N/A
N/AN/A
N/AN/A
Perc
enta
ge
Source: StepStone Group
QUESTIONS?
RISK UPDATE
• Risk Reports• Performance Attribution Analysis• Stress Tests
Agenda
46
Total Plan Risk (Macro Factors)
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementFor Investment Evaluation Purposes by Authorized Personnel Only – May Contain Material Non-Public Information
Total Risk is 7.72% compared with 6.67% as of 12/31/18 and 6.29 % as of 9/30/18 (public markets only).
Overweight to the Interest Rate Macro factor
Active Exposure of -.22 to the Interest Rate Macro factor compared with -.71 as of 9/30/18
47
Performance Attribution – Public Markets
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
33%
67%
12.84% 12.84% 13.05%
0.22%
Benchmark Return Active Return Total Return
Q1 2019 Return %
3.79% 2.79% 2.79%
Benchmark Return Active Return Total Return
Q1 2019: USD 27 BnOutperformed by ~22 bps Underperformed by ~99 bps
Q1 2019 Return %
Source: MSCI BarraOne
-0.99%
Public portfolio returned 9.7% but underperformed benchmark by ~19 bps
17%
16%
12%11%
11%
33%
IT Fin HC Cons. Disc. Industrials Other
48
Performance Attribution – Public Equity
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Sector Allocation
Q1 2019
OW
UW
OW
OWOW
UW
Sector Return AttributionOverall Return %
Active Return, in bps
Note – Remaining active return of ~1 bps is because of currency impactOW - Overweight UW - Underweight
Source: MSCI BarraOne
7 13
3 5 (4) (2)
IT Fin HC Cons. Disc. Industrials Other andResiduals
3.37%
1.36% 1.14%1.66% 1.55%
3.97%
IT Fin HC Cons. Disc. Industrials Other
Tilts towards IT, Financial, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary worked
44%
56%
49
Public Equity – Outperformance
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Q1 2019 Active Return
Source: MSCI BarraOne
Outperformance primarily attributed to security selection
67%9%
9%2%
12%
Government MBS Financial Agency Others
50
Performance Attribution – Public Fixed Income
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Sector Allocation Return Attribution
OW - Overweight UW - Underweight
Overall Return %
Active Return, in bps
Q1 2019
OW
OW
OW
UW
OW
1.8%
0.2% 0.2% 0.1%0.5%
Government MBS Financial Agency Others
(46)
15 (11) (37) (21)
Government MBS Financial Agency Others andResiduals
Source: MSCI BarraOne
Underperformance across multiple sectors
Term Structure Rates
KRD Attribution/Contribution
Contribution to Duration (yrs)
51
Public Fixed Income – Duration Analysis
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementFor Investment Evaluation Purposes by Authorized Personnel Only – May Contain Material Non-Public Information
33%
67%
52
Public Fixed Income – Underperformance
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Q1 2019 Active Return
Source: MSCI BarraOne
Underperformance primarily attributed to security selection
Stress Scenario Description Impact on Portfolio
1. Insurance Cut• Fed cuts rate by 50 bps• Curve steepens• Growth continues to trend
2. Recession• Growth slows• Fed cuts rate in response• Global growth is impacted as well
3. Regime Change • Fed cuts rate to hit inflation target of 2-2.5%
53
Stress Tests
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management Source: MSCI BarraOne
0
1.4%
-3.9%
6.8%
• Stress tests evaluate the impact of possible future financial scenarios on the investment portfolio – in order to gauge how the portfolios will weather adverse events/extreme market conditions
• We have examined three scenarios suggested by historical and current circumstances – including ongoing speculation that the Fed may cut rates.
54
Stress Tests – Impact by Asset Class
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset ManagementFor Investment Evaluation Purposes by Authorized Personnel Only – May Contain Material Non-Public Information
The chart below details the impart of stress scenarios by asset class
Source: BAM, MSCI (analytics) and State Street (holdings data)
6.81%
-3.88%
1.44%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Scenario 1 - Insurance Cut Scenario 2 - Recession Scenario 3 - Regime Change
OFI
Bank Loans
Enhanced-High Yield
TIPS
Treasuries
Private Real Estate
Private Equity
Emerging Markets
Developed Markets
U.S. Equity
TOTAL
55
Stress Tests – Assumptions
OFFICE OF NEW YORK CITY COMPTROLLER SCOTT M. STRINGER | Bureau of Asset Management
Type Factor Insurance Cut Regime Change Recession
Equity Markets
Russell 3000 +10% Flat -5%MSCI US NA NA NAMSCI EAFE (USD) Flat Flat -8%MSCI EM (USD) +5% Flat -15%MSCI China NA NA NA
Currency USD -5% NA -10%
Nominal RatesUSD 3-mo -50bp -75bp -150bpUSD 10-yr -5bp -10bp -50bpUSD 30-yr +10bp +30bp -10bpJPY 10-yr NA NA NAEUR 10-yr NA NA NA
Real Rates3-mo TIPS -50bp Flat -75bp10-yr TIPS -5bp Flat -15bp30-yr TIPS +10bp Flat -15bp
Credit Spreads BBB Spreads Flat Flat +40bpBB Spreads NA NA +100bp
Source: MSCI BarraOne
QUESTIONS?
COMMON INVESTMENT MEETING�Public SessionMARKET OVERVIEWMarket Returns: Q1-2019�Market Returns Q1 – 2019��Market Returns Q1 – 2019��Market Returns Q1 – 2019��Market Returns Q1 – 2019����Current Market Themes��Current Market ThemesCurrent Market Themes�Current Market Themes�Current Market ThemesQ1 - Asset Allocation ReviewQ1 - Asset Allocation Review - GrowthQ1 - Asset Allocation Review – Inflation ProtectionQ1 - Asset Allocation Review - Deflation ProtectionCore Bond Portfolio Duration, Actual Vs. Target (as of 03/31/2019)QUESTIONS?PERFORMANCE REPORTING�1st Quarter 2019NYC Retirement Systems AUM (% , in millions)Total NYC Pension Fund Net Performance as of 03/31/2019Quarter to Date Return as of 03/31/2019 – Total PortfolioQuarter to Date as of 03/31/2019 Excess Return – Total PortfolioValue Added – Total Domestic EquityValue Added – Total World Ex-USAValue Added – Total Emerging MarketsValue Added – Total Structured Fixed IncomeValue Added – High YieldValue Added – Bank LoansValue Added – Economically Targeted InvestmentsValue Added- Hedge Funds�Basis Points of Excess ReturnHedge Fund Performance Less Tactical TradeTactical Trade PerformancePRIVATE MARKET DATAValue Added - Opportunistic Fixed Income (OFI)Value Added - Private EquityPrivate Equity Value Added – PME Spread By Vintage Year as of 12/31/18Value Added - Private Real Estate - CoreValue Added - Private Real Estate – Non-CorePrivate Real Estate (Non-Core) Value Added - PME Spread By Vintage Year as of 12/31/18Value Added - InfrastructureInfrastructure Value Added – PME Spread By Vintage Year as of 12/31/18QUESTIONS?RISK UPDATEAgendaTotal Plan Risk (Macro Factors)Performance Attribution – Public MarketsPerformance Attribution – Public EquityPublic Equity – OutperformancePerformance Attribution – Public Fixed IncomePublic Fixed Income – Duration AnalysisPublic Fixed Income – UnderperformanceStress TestsStress Tests – Impact by Asset ClassStress Tests – AssumptionsQUESTIONS?COMMON INVESTMENT MEETING�Executive SessionPRIVATE EQUITY�APAX X USD (Re-up)Apax X USD (Re-up)QUESTIONS?��APAX PARTNERS�Manager Presentation���Overview of Apax PartnersStrong relationshipFirm overviewSeasoned and expanding senior team�c.120 investment professionalsApax has a diverse, global workforceApax’s transformative approach to investingThe Strengths of the FirmPicking attractive sectors ahead of the packCase studies: GlobalLogic�Transformation has resulted in an accelerating growth profileFunds on track to deliver c. 2x netApax X: Key termsEndnotesDisclaimerBasis of CalculationsTable of fund and deal level returns (31 March 2019)Slide Number 77Slide Number 78QUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager SearchEmerging Markets Manager Search: MemosEmerging Markets Manager Search: SummaryEmerging Markets Search: Final Scores by Style (Top 18 Products)Emerging Markets: Manager Characteristics & Role SummaryRecommended Manager Allocation Summary: Portfolio #1Recommended Manager Allocation Summary: Portfolio #2QUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�Acadian Emerging Markets EquityRecommendation: Acadian Emerging Markets EquityQUESTIONS?��ACADIAN�Manager Presentation���Teachers Retirement System of the City of New York�New York City Employees’ Retirement System�New York City Police Pension Fund�New York City Fire Pension Fund�New York City Board of Education Retirement SystemWhy Acadian for active Emerging Markets equity?ACADIAN ORGANIZATIONAL OVERVIEW Investment Team overviewStock Forecast ExampleCurrent Valuations and discountsSpreads and performanceConclusion:Slide Number 100Investment ProcessEmerging Markets Equity compositeRESEARCH PROCESSACADIAN GLOBAL DATA ACADIAN INVESTMENT TEAM*ACADIAN INVESTMENT TEAM*ACADIAN INVESTMENT TEAM*ACADIAN INVESTMENT TEAM*ACADIAN INVESTMENT TEAM*ACADIAN INVESTMENT TEAM*ACADIAN INVESTMENT TEAM*Annual performance disclosure LEGAL DisclaimerQUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets All CapRecommendation: Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets All CapQUESTIONS?��BAILLIE GIFFORD�Manager Presentation���NYC TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM�NYC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM�NYC POLICE RETIREMENT SYSTEM�NYC FIRE RETIREMENT SYSTEM�NYC BOARD OF EDUCATION RETIREMENT SYSTEMBaillie Gifford Overview Our Relationship Emerging Markets Investment TeamInvestment PhilosophyEmerging Markets Investment ProcessConclusionPortfolio (1)Portfolio (2)Important Information and Risk FactorsQUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�Pzena Emerging Markets Focused ValueRecommendation: Pzena Emerging Markets Focused ValueQUESTIONS?��PZENA�Manager Presentation���Slide Number 134Slide Number 135Slide Number 136Slide Number 137Slide Number 138Slide Number 139Slide Number 140Slide Number 141Slide Number 142Slide Number 143Slide Number 144Slide Number 145QUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�Sands Capital Mgmt. Emerging Markets GrowthRecommendation: Sands Capital Mgmt. Emerging Markets GrowthQUESTIONS?��SANDS CAPITAL�Manager Presentation���Slide Number 151Slide Number 152Slide Number 153Slide Number 154Slide Number 155Slide Number 156Slide Number 157Slide Number 158Slide Number 159Slide Number 160Slide Number 161Slide Number 162Slide Number 163Slide Number 164Slide Number 165Slide Number 166Slide Number 167Slide Number 168Slide Number 169Slide Number 170Slide Number 171Slide Number 172Slide Number 173Slide Number 174Slide Number 175Slide Number 176Slide Number 177Slide Number 178Slide Number 179Slide Number 180Slide Number 181Slide Number 182Slide Number 183Slide Number 184Slide Number 185Slide Number 186Slide Number 187Slide Number 188Slide Number 189Slide Number 190Slide Number 191Slide Number 192Slide Number 193Slide Number 194Slide Number 195QUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�UBS Emerging Markets Equity (HALO)Recommendation: UBS Emerging Markets Equity (HALO)QUESTIONS?��UBS�Manager Presentation���Emerging Markets Equity High Alpha�Long-Term Opportunity (HALO) strategyWho we areWhy UBS for EM equitiesStable, experienced and local teamProven investment philosophyEstablished investment processBoots-on-the-ground research processPortfolio constructionMacro analysis and inputsRisk managementPerformance attributionAttractive performance vs. peersUBS New York City community affairsEmerging Markets Equity HALO composite disclosuresAdditional disclosuresQUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�AQR Emerging Markets Small Cap CoreRecommendation: AQR Emerging Markets Small Cap CoreQUESTIONS?��AQR�Manager Presentation���AQR Emerging Small Cap EquityDisclosuresPresenters’ BiographiesExecutive SummaryFirm OverviewOur FirmOur OfferingsAssets Under Management Competitive Advantages�Investment Philosophy, Process, and PerformanceOur Investment PhilosophyOur Global Stock Selection TeamAlpha Signal Research Is CriticalAnd Continuously EvolvingBut Process Design Is Equally ImportantPerformance Summary: Emerging Small Cap EquityOur Process Has Worked Across Regions and Market CapitalizationsAppendixStrategy CharacteristicsPerformance DisclosuresPerformance DisclosuresPerformance DisclosuresPerformance DisclosuresPerformance DisclosuresPerformance DisclosuresPerformance DisclosuresSlide Number 247QUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�J.P. Morgan GEM DiscoveryRecommendation: J.P. Morgan GEM DiscoveryQUESTIONS?PUBLIC EQUITY�Emerging Markets Manager Search�-�RBC Global Asset Mgmt. Emerging Markets EquityRecommendation: RBC Global Asset Mgmt. Emerging Markets EquityQUESTIONS?��RBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT�Manager Presentation���Teachers’ Retirement System of the City of New York (“TRS”)�New York City Employees’ Retirement System (“NYCERS”)�New York City Police Pension Fund (“Police”)�New York City Fire Pension Fund (“Fire”)�Board of Education Retirement System of the City of New York (“BERS”)���June 19, 2019RBC Emerging Markets EquityRBC Emerging Markets EquitySlide Number 259Investment TeamSlide Number 261Emerging Markets Equity OverviewPhilosophyInvestment ProcessPortfolio ConstructionEmerging Markets Equity Research ProcessEmerging Markets Equity Research ProcessEmerging Markets Equity Research ProcessEmerging Markets Equity Research ProcessPortfolio ConstructionSlide Number 271Investment Performance and RiskTrailing 5-Year Risk StatisticsSlide Number 274RBC Global Asset ManagementSlide Number 276RBC Emerging Markets Equity�Slide Number 278What Difference does ESG Make?How are ESG Factors Incorporated into the Investment Process? Research ProcessESG IntegrationCompany Engagement Enhances Outcomes GIPS® Compliant Presentation AppendixGIPS® Compliant Presentation AppendixAdditional DisclosuresDisclosuresQUESTIONS?RECOMMENDATION�Parametric TerminationRecommendation: Parametric TerminationQUESTIONS?RECOMMENDATION�Lazard TerminationRecommendation: Lazard TerminationQUESTIONS?PRIVATE EQUITY�Trilantic IV (Re-up) �Follow-upQUESTIONS?��TRILANTIC CAPITAL PARTNERS�Manager Presentation���Slide Number 298Cautionary StatementFollow-Up Questions & AnswersSlide Number 301History of Strong PartnershipSlide Number 303Slide Number 304Slide Number 305Summary of Key TermsSummary of Key TermsCase Study: Traeger Pellet GrillsSlide Number 309Case Study – Traeger Pellet Grills LLC (“Traeger”)Case Study: Angelica CorporationSlide Number 312Slide Number 313Slide Number 314Slide Number 315Slide Number 316Slide Number 317Slide Number 318Notes & MethodologiesSlide Number 320QUESTIONS?ALTERNATIVE CREDIT�OPPORTUNISTIC FIXED INCOME�Early Stage Emerging Manager ProgramEarly Stage Emerging Manager ProgramOFI Annual PlanSourcing Managers in the OFI Opportunity SetEarly-Stage Managers are Targeted in the OFI IPSEarlier Stage Manager InvestmentsManager CharacteristicsProgram ObjectivesWhy Invest in Early Stage Managers?Three Main ApproachesPreliminary SizingCompiling Emerging Manager Candidate ListEvaluation of Potential PartnersQUESTIONS?Diversity DisclosureQUESTIONS?Climate UpdateQUESTIONS?