Project Management balance between control & flexibility

work breakdown risk analysis

project cycle planning

Project management 2

Overview

■  Project management approaches ■  CommonKADS spiral approach ■  How to do a risk analysis ■  Project planning and the concept of model states ■  Case Study: a project on reactor noise analysis ■  Experience: points of attention

Project management 3

Control versus Flexibility

■  knowledge projects often have learning character ■  structure of knowledge may turn out to deviate ■  requirements (even) more likely to change

➤  goals adjusted along project route

Project management 4

Waterfall project approach

S trategy  P hase

Information  Analys is

S ystem  Des ign

P rogramand  Test

OperationMaintenance

Project management 5

Merits and disadvantages of waterfall LCM

■  strong handle for project control ■  early phases are document-oriented

➤  often need for operational (partial) results

■  changing needs and requirements difficult and costly ■  adequate for applications with clear route

➤  not often true for knowledge-intensive systems

Project management 6

Evolutionary or rapid prototyping approach

GatherE xpert  data

ImplementP rototype

ValidateGet  feedback

Iterate

Project management 7

Basic Ideas underlying KBS Project Approach

■  It's not activities, but products that count ■  Project lifecycle must be configurable ■  Configuration is based on risk assessment ■  Quality is engineered in through (1) model suite

based development; (2) risk-based cyclic project management

■  Development (1) and management (2) are linked through the concept of model (product) states

Project management 8

Boehm's Spiral Model

R E VIE W

R IS KP L AN

MONITOR

cyc le-­‐0

cyc le-­‐1

cyc le-­‐2

cyc le-­‐3

Project management 9

CommonKADS Spiral Lifecycle Model

MONITOR R E VIE W

R IS KP L AN

-­‐  monitor  deve lopment  work-­‐  prepa re  a cceptance  a s s es sment

-­‐  eva lua te  cyc le  res ults

-­‐  review  prog res s-­‐s e t  cyc le  objec tives-­‐  cons ider  cons tra ints

-­‐  inves tig a te  a lte rna tives-­‐  commit

-­‐  pla n  cyc le  ta s ks-­‐  a lloca te  res ources

-­‐  a g ree  a cceptance  c rite ria

-­‐  identify  ris ks-­‐  ca rry  out  ris k  a s s es sment

-­‐  dec ide  on  deve lopment  s teps

Project management 10

Project management cycle

1. Review ➤  current status of the project is reviewed ➤  objectives for upcoming cycle are established ➤  special case: cycle-0

–  project plan + quality plan is developed ➤  ensure continued commitment of stakeholders

2. Risk ➤  obstacles identified

–  significance assessed ➤  counteractions are decided upon

Project management 11

Project management cycle

3. Plan ➤  make detailed plan for next cycle

–  work breakdown structure –  schedule of tasks

➤  allocating needed resources and personnel ➤  agreeing on acceptance criteria

4. Monitor ➤  evaluating outputs ➤  track progress ➤  meeting with stakeholders

Project management 12

How to do a Risk Assessment

■  Risk = (Likelihood of Occurrence) x (Severity of Effect)

■  Valuate both on a qualitative (five-point) scale ■  Subsequently rank all risks on this basis ■  Device countermeasures for each risk ■  Plan accordingly, and take the risks with high priority

rank first ■  Risk assessment: see Worksheet PM-1 (is part of

project documentation)

Project management 13

Quality feature tree (used in risk assessment)

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Project management 14

Knowledge-oriented quality features

■  Knowledge capture: ➤  quality features of knowledge elicitation, modeling and

validation activities by knowledge engineers

■  Knowledge usability ➤  quality features of knowledge itself

Project management 15

The Concept of Model States

■  Models are seen as (sub)products of KBS project ■  Project management: get products from one state

into another, desired next state ■  Qualitative range of state values: empty, identified,

described, validated, completed ■  Project planning is state transition based

➤  See Worksheet PM-2 ■  May apply to separate models or even components,

depending on perceived risk

Project management 16

PM-2: Setting plan objectives through model states

■  What model(s) are to be worked on in next cycle? ■  Which model component(s)? ■  To what degree?

➤  refers to model state

■  By what means, resources, development method or technique?

■  Success condition ■  Quality metrics

Project management 17

CommonKADS Planning is based on Model States

S et  objec tiv es

Identify  ris ks

Define  ta rg et  model  s ta tes

R ev iew  objec tiv es

Qua lityC ontrol

current  model  =>  new  model  des c ription

P landeve lopment  ac tiv ities

-­‐  unders tand  current  s ituation

-­‐  prob lem  des c ription  incomplete

OM:  prob lem  des c ription=  validated

OM:  s truc ture=  des c ribed

TM:  decompos ition=  des c ribed

OM:  proces s=  des c ribed

TM:  time  load=  des c ribed

OM:  prob lem=  des c ribed

OM:  prob lem=  validated

Dev elopment

P ro jec t  Manag ement

Project management 18

Project Documentation

■  Project Plan ➤  Project motivation, background, scope, goals ➤  Project deliverables ➤  Work breakdown: cycles, resources ➤  Project organization

■  Quality Plan ■  Cycle Documentation ■  Project Close Down Report

➤  lessons learnt, recommendations and proposed guidelines follow-up work, improvements

Project management 19

Case: a Project on Nuclear Reactor Noise Analysis

steam generator

P

reactor vessel

core

neutron detectors

pumps

Project management 20

Task: expert interpretation of noise spectra

Nuclear Charge 21

0.00E+00

1.00E-03

2.00E-03

3.00E-03

4.00E-03

5.00E-03

6.00E-03

11 24 140 285 463 579 672 781 861 980

boron

RMS

Project management 21

Risk: Cycle 1

Risk list (ranked in this order; see Table 12.9): ■  Knowledge engineer not acquainted with this (complex)

domain –  Countermeasure: do part of domain model first

■  Nature and complexity of noise interpretation task unknown (classification, monitoring, assessment, model-based diagnosis?)

–  Countermeasure: scenario-based task modeling

■  Limited availability of the expert –  Countermeasure: develop contacts with other experts

Project management 22

Plan: Cycle 1 Gantt Chart

time

KM-­‐a T M-­‐b

TM-­‐a T M-­‐c

OM-­‐a OM-­‐b

840

88

24 60

C Y C L E -­‐1

Project management 23

Expectation Management!

From an interview transcript: ■  Knowledge engineer:

–  Question (shows noise spectra): if the reactivity differs from the expected value, is it possible to tell what the potential causes are? Does it also show up in or affect other physical parameters?

■  Expert: –  Answer: In what language are you going to implement the

system? On a VAX or a PC?

Project management 24

Conclusion of First Cycle; Risk Analysis Second Cycle

■  Reactor noise interpretation is assessment task (similar to credit card fraud or housing!) ➤  Hence: (1) feasible for KBS; (2) assessment task template

can be reused (and it did work!)

■  Perceived major risk in second cycle: detailed insight needed in economic costs and benefits ➤  Hence, second-cycle plan: focus on organization and task

model, esp. value, resource and performance components

Project management 25

Gantt Chart Cycles 2 and 3

Further cycles were rather waterfall-like

time

KM-­‐b

DM

KM-­‐c KM-­‐e

2020

20

10time

T M-­‐d

OM-­‐c

40

40

C Y C L E -­‐2 C Y C L E -­‐3

KM-­‐d

20

Project management 26

KBS Cost Estimation

■  KBS economy similar to other complex information systems. Rough figures (cf. Boehm: S/w Eng. Economics)

➤  Project management: 10% ➤  Organization/Task/Agent Models: 10% ➤  Knowledge modeling (information analysis): 30% ➤  Design and Communication Models: 20% ➤  Implementation and testing: 25% ➤  Quality assurance: 5%

■  Notes: (1) high variability; (2) exchanges possible,depending on project and approach (e.g. GUI prototyping)

Project management 27

Requirements Engineering

■  Requirements engineering in software is still underestimated and underdeveloped

–  cf. books like Sommerville: Software Engineering

■  CommonKADS Model Suite can be seen as a method to structure the requirements elicitation and capture process

■  Analogy between requirements and knowledge: –  Tacit vs. explicit –  What is said may not coincide with what is really used –  Context dependence, organizational environment –  The human factor

Project management 28

Experience-based project management guidelines

■  Identify and interview stakeholders right at the beginning; keep them informed and interested

■  Be prepared for different viewpoints and interests ■  Manage expectations all the time ■  Risks are often not of a technical nature! ■  Requirements have a life of their own: they emerge,

grow and change, multiply, and die ■  Use the universal 80/20% rules ■  Learn from our recipes for failure !