Communication & Knowledge Networks in 21st century

Organizations

Professor Noshir ContractorUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

nosh@uiuc.eduhttp://www.uiuc.edu/ph/www/nosh

2000 Educational AICVB Conference

Unconventional Wisdom:

Thinking Beyond the Boundaries

August 10, 2000

Thinking Beyond Boundaries

It starts with what we call unconventional It starts with what we call unconventional wisdom. That means looking at established wisdom. That means looking at established problems in new ways. And anticipating the problems in new ways. And anticipating the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. After all, our profession is evolving very After all, our profession is evolving very rapidly. Shouldn’t your thinking EVOLVE rapidly. Shouldn’t your thinking EVOLVE with it?with it?

Evolution of Technology Use

Substitution

Substitution

Adoption based on relative advantage, Adoption based on relative advantage, observability, adaptability, compatibility, observability, adaptability, compatibility, trialabilitytrialability

Examples: Automobiles, Telephone, Examples: Automobiles, Telephone, Videoconferencing, Arpanet/Internet, Videoconferencing, Arpanet/Internet, WWWWWW

Substitution Effects

U.S. Conference Board estimates National U.S. Conference Board estimates National secretarial pool has shrunk by more than secretarial pool has shrunk by more than half a million in the past decadehalf a million in the past decade

Computer-mediated versus computer Computer-mediated versus computer augmented communication?augmented communication?

Intranet as a publishing versus Intranet as a publishing versus communication environment? communication environment? Blurring the genre of the memo and the genre Blurring the genre of the memo and the genre

of the dialogof the dialog

Substitution Effects ?

Digital Cities:Substitution Effects ?

Evolution of Technology Use

Enlargement

Substitution

Enlargement

To which the president of GM replied: "Yes, but would you want your car to crash every time you tried to open a window?"

If the automobile were invented in 1970 and If the automobile were invented in 1970 and dropped in price accordingly, while dropped in price accordingly, while increasing features, a car would cost less increasing features, a car would cost less than $5 and drive 25,000 miles/gallon than $5 and drive 25,000 miles/gallon (Economist, 1998)(Economist, 1998)

Time to reach a quarter of the US population (Newsweek, 4/13/98)

1926/TV: 26 years1926/TV: 26 years 1953/Microwave: 30 1953/Microwave: 30

yearsyears 1975/PC: 16 years1975/PC: 16 years 1983/Mobile phone: 13 1983/Mobile phone: 13

yearsyears 1991/Web: 7 years1991/Web: 7 years

1873, Electricity: 46 1873, Electricity: 46 yrs.yrs.

1876/Telephone: 35 1876/Telephone: 35 yrs.yrs.

1886/Automobile: 55 1886/Automobile: 55 yrs.yrs.

1906/Radio: 22 yrs.1906/Radio: 22 yrs.

Enlargement

1996: Total volume of email greater than snail 1996: Total volume of email greater than snail mail; total sales of PC greater than TV setsmail; total sales of PC greater than TV sets

1999: Total volume of data traffic greater than 1999: Total volume of data traffic greater than voice; 10 fold increase in U.S. e-commerce in 10 voice; 10 fold increase in U.S. e-commerce in 10 monthsmonths

Moore’s Law: Computational power doubles Moore’s Law: Computational power doubles every 18 monthsevery 18 months

Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a network is Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a network is proportional to the number of users squaredproportional to the number of users squared

Enlargement

Current 32 bit IP addresses can Current 32 bit IP addresses can accommodate 4295 million devices accommodate 4295 million devices (2exp32) (2exp32)

The new proposed 132 bit IP address The new proposed 132 bit IP address scheme can accommodate (3.4e38 or 340 scheme can accommodate (3.4e38 or 340 undecillion) devicesundecillion) devices

Finland provides an early preview with Finland provides an early preview with WAP IT and BluetoothWAP IT and Bluetooth

Enlargement

Telecommuting grew from 4 million in Telecommuting grew from 4 million in 1990 to 11 million in 1997 (Telecommute 1990 to 11 million in 1997 (Telecommute America)America)

E-commerce in Europe will account for $19 E-commerce in Europe will account for $19 billion in 1999 and is expected to rise to billion in 1999 and is expected to rise to $223 billion in 2002 (IDC, June, 1999)$223 billion in 2002 (IDC, June, 1999)

Enlargement effects?

At current growth rates WWW would At current growth rates WWW would surpass the 29 Terra bytes of the Library of surpass the 29 Terra bytes of the Library of Congress by 1998 (Wired, May 1996). Congress by 1998 (Wired, May 1996). But ...But ...

WWW is a library with all the books on the floor, and

WWW is a World Wide Wait

Enlargement: Email delays

12% of email takes over 5 minutes to be 12% of email takes over 5 minutes to be delivered and 10% is delivered over an hour delivered and 10% is delivered over an hour later (Source: Inverse Network Technology, later (Source: Inverse Network Technology, a Santa Clara company that tests Internet a Santa Clara company that tests Internet performance) - Wall Street Journal 5/29/97.performance) - Wall Street Journal 5/29/97.

Internet drop out rate 11 percent (Jim Katz, Internet drop out rate 11 percent (Jim Katz, ATT labs, 1996)ATT labs, 1996)

Enlargement effects?

““Shadow costs” of media transformation Shadow costs” of media transformation between “Information spigots”between “Information spigots” Electronic: phone, mobile, PDA, PC, printer, Electronic: phone, mobile, PDA, PC, printer,

copier, fax ...copier, fax ... ““Dead tree” editions: Memos, reports, books, Dead tree” editions: Memos, reports, books,

newspapers, periodicals ...newspapers, periodicals ...

Enlargement: Network Failures

Gigalapse: A billion lost user hours during a Gigalapse: A billion lost user hours during a network failure predicted by Bob Metcalfe network failure predicted by Bob Metcalfe for 1996 - did not materializefor 1996 - did not materialize

Closest was AOL's 6.2 million people for Closest was AOL's 6.2 million people for 19 hours = 118 megalapse. 19 hours = 118 megalapse.

Telephones experience 30,000 people Telephones experience 30,000 people without 5 hrs. service per day = 150 without 5 hrs. service per day = 150 kilolapsekilolapse

Enlargement: Information Gap

Emerging technologies improve the amount Emerging technologies improve the amount of information among the “haves” and the of information among the “haves” and the “have-nots”“have-nots”

But the “haves” are much better informed But the “haves” are much better informed than the “have-nots” resulting in an increase than the “have-nots” resulting in an increase in the Information Gapin the Information Gap

Information Gap

Enlargement & Digital Divide

User end: Digital Bristol experienceUser end: Digital Bristol experience 87% of users at public kiosk were those who had PCs at 87% of users at public kiosk were those who had PCs at

homehome Server end: 80% of users go to about 0.5% of the Server end: 80% of users go to about 0.5% of the

web sites (about 15,000 cites)…. And 70% of web sites (about 15,000 cites)…. And 70% of these are commercial web sites (Source: these are commercial web sites (Source: Alexa.com)Alexa.com)

How do we move from the Digital Divide to a How do we move from the Digital Divide to a Digital Dividend?Digital Dividend?

Productivity Paradox

Productivity Paradox: In 1996 US companies spent 43% of Productivity Paradox: In 1996 US companies spent 43% of their capital budgets on computer hardware - a colossal their capital budgets on computer hardware - a colossal $213 billion, and more than they invested in factories, $213 billion, and more than they invested in factories, vehicles, or any kind of durable equipment. In 1981 vehicles, or any kind of durable equipment. In 1981 expenditure on computer hardware had been just 6 %. expenditure on computer hardware had been just 6 %.

Adding in all the associated costs, the total cost of Adding in all the associated costs, the total cost of computing for 1996 was about $500 billion in the US and computing for 1996 was about $500 billion in the US and more than $1 trillion worldwide. more than $1 trillion worldwide.

Yet since the mid-sixties, productivity gains Yet since the mid-sixties, productivity gains

have stayed below 2%.have stayed below 2%.

Productivity Paradox: Why?

Giving pony express ridersGiving pony express riders

cell phones to call ahead to cell phones to call ahead to askask

for water (Neuman, 1997)for water (Neuman, 1997)

Evolution of Technology Use

Reconfiguration

Enlargement

Substitution

WORK BY BID?

Thinking beyond the boundaries ….Thinking beyond the boundaries ….

Transaction costs of coordination mechanisms

Hierarchies Hierarchies (Low)(Low) Markets (Medium)Markets (Medium) Networks (High)Networks (High)

Organizational Forms

Hierarchy

Matrix

Network

Fedex and cookies

Interdependencies in the virtual organization can occur bothinternally and externally and at various levels of the firm.

Firm A Firm B

Corporate level

Business unit level

Group level

Individual level

Surge of Network Organizations

More than 20,000 alliances formed More than 20,000 alliances formed worldwide in 1996-98, accounting for 21worldwide in 1996-98, accounting for 21% % of the revenue of America’s 1000 largest of the revenue of America’s 1000 largest firms in 1997 (Harbison & Pekar, 1999)firms in 1997 (Harbison & Pekar, 1999)

Is the “firewall” separating the Intranet Is the “firewall” separating the Intranet from the Extranet the last vestige of from the Extranet the last vestige of organizational boundaries?organizational boundaries?

Reconfiguration: Examples IWorkplace demographics

More than half of the European work force More than half of the European work force does not go to an office for a 9 to 5 job does not go to an office for a 9 to 5 job (Charles Handy)(Charles Handy)

Manpower had 2 million employees in 1997Manpower had 2 million employees in 1997 25 years ago 1 in 5 worked for a Fortune 25 years ago 1 in 5 worked for a Fortune

500, now less than 1 in 10 does500, now less than 1 in 10 does

Reconfiguration: Examples

Amazon.com, Priceline.com: Put your Amazon.com, Priceline.com: Put your money where your mouse is. Lowest price money where your mouse is. Lowest price for me. for me.

Mercata.com, Accompany.com: Lowest Mercata.com, Accompany.com: Lowest price for usprice for us

Ebay.com: Auction. Highest price for me.Ebay.com: Auction. Highest price for me.

Reconfiguring Digital Cities

The Hong Kong lessonThe Hong Kong lesson Digital KyotoDigital Kyoto Digital VeniceDigital Venice

Reconfiguring relationships:E-lancers

The fundamental unit of such an economy The fundamental unit of such an economy is not the corporation but the individual. is not the corporation but the individual. Electronically connected free lances or e-Electronically connected free lances or e-lancers join together into fluid and lancers join together into fluid and temporary nets to provide and sell goods temporary nets to provide and sell goods and services (Malone, Harvard Business and services (Malone, Harvard Business Review, 1998).Review, 1998).

Reconfiguring relationships:Brokering information

When administration becomes …… When administration becomes …… amnesia-strationamnesia-stration

Info-mediaries (John Hagel & Marc Siegel)Info-mediaries (John Hagel & Marc Siegel) Importance of leveraging knowledge capital Importance of leveraging knowledge capital

via social capital - The case of the Lovegety via social capital - The case of the Lovegety From groupware to communityware. Is it From groupware to communityware. Is it

the next killer app or a …..???the next killer app or a …..???

1. Turn on the power and set the MODE button you want with MODE button. You can confirm the MODE you chose as the red indicator blinks.

2. Lamp blinks when (someone with) a Lovegety for the opposite sex to yours set under the same MODE as yours comes near.

3. FIND lamp blinks when (someone with) a Lovegety for the opposite sex to yours set under some different mode from yours come near. In that case, you may try the other MODES to “GET” tuned with (him/her) if you like.

Who knows ….

Social Structures are based on Social Structures are based on “who knows “who knows who.”who.”

Cognitive Social Structures are based on Cognitive Social Structures are based on “who knows who knows who.”“who knows who knows who.”

Knowledge Networks are based on Knowledge Networks are based on “Who “Who knows what.”knows what.”

Cognitive Knowledge Networks are based on Cognitive Knowledge Networks are based on “who knows who knows what.”“who knows who knows what.”

The Answer to these Questions . .

IKNOW !!!!IKNOW !!!!

Goal of IKNOW

Data Used in IKNOW

Based on organizational members’ Web Based on organizational members’ Web pages:pages: Links between Web pages Links between Web pages Common external links from Web pages Common external links from Web pages Content on the Web pagesContent on the Web pages

Data Used in IKNOW (cont’d)

Based on organizational members Based on organizational members volunteering information about social and volunteering information about social and knowledge resourcesknowledge resources Content: inventory of skills, expertise, etc.Content: inventory of skills, expertise, etc. Links: inventory of social networksLinks: inventory of social networks Incentives for volunteering information tied to Incentives for volunteering information tied to

performance appraisal and evaluation of help performance appraisal and evaluation of help provided. provided.

So why would one want to use IKNOW?

Makes the virtual visible. Makes the virtual visible. Adds social capital to knowledge capital Adds social capital to knowledge capital

by adding contacts to content.by adding contacts to content. While collaboration tools help improve While collaboration tools help improve

the process of collaboration in knowledge the process of collaboration in knowledge networks … IKNOW helps one networks … IKNOW helps one effectively identify collaboration partners effectively identify collaboration partners and grow the knowledge network.and grow the knowledge network.

IKNOW Test Beds

National Computational Science AllianceNational Computational Science Alliance PrairieNetPrairieNet Center for Collaborative ManufacturingCenter for Collaborative Manufacturing USAID Global Information SystemsUSAID Global Information Systems U.S. Army Public Works DepartmentU.S. Army Public Works Department Summer Workshops and InstitutesSummer Workshops and Institutes Virtual coursesVirtual courses IKNOW-IT Illinois TourismIKNOW-IT Illinois Tourism

Using IKNOW in the Hypothetical Scenario

Demo of Demo of IKNOWIKNOW

Kawakami, Kenji (1995). Kawakami, Kenji (1995). 101 un-useless 101 un-useless Japanese inventionsJapanese inventions. New York: W. W. . New York: W. W. Norton & Company.Norton & Company.

… … inventions that seem like they’re going to inventions that seem like they’re going to make life a lot easier, but don’t.make life a lot easier, but don’t.

… … gadgets that promise to give us something, gadgets that promise to give us something, and it is only later that we realize that their and it is only later that we realize that their gift is undone by that which they take awaygift is undone by that which they take away

Shindogu?

Additional Information

Program URL:Program URL: http://http://iknowiknow.spcomm..spcomm.uiucuiuc..eduedu//

Email for questions and suggestions:Email for questions and suggestions:

iknow@uiuc.eduiknow@uiuc.edu