Community-Based Market Monitoring and Trade Analysis (MMTA) in Darfur

Youssif El Tayeb

Outline

• Background: the importance of trade and purpose of market monitoring

• The MMTA project: approach and methodology• Examples of findings from DDRA’s market monitoring

• In-depth studies by Tufts/ DDRA of the impact of conflict on the livestock, cash crop and cereal trade in Darfur

• Emerging economic opportunities

• Opportunities for peace-building?• Challenges and plans for the future

Why is it important to understand trade in Darfur?• Trade – the ‘lifeblood’ of Darfur’s economy and of livelihoods

• includes long-distance trade, and trade within Darfur

• Trade – a key point of connection between different livelihood groups, and an important factor in building social ties

• National significance of Darfur’s livestock and cash crop economy:• Darfur accounts for estimated ¼ to 1/3 of Sudan’s livestock resources post-

secession• Darfur produces around 1/3 of the national groundnut harvest (very little

exported)

• Lack of knowledge and information of how trade & markets affected during the conflict: yet importance of understanding the wider economy/ the bigger picture in a protracted crisis to inform policy and programming

What are we trying to achieve?• To deepen analysis and understanding of the shifting patterns

of trade and markets in Darfur on an ongoing basis for key agricultural and livestock commodities, in order to: • inform and influence programming to support livelihoods • identify opportunities for peace-building through trade • prepare for the eventual recovery of Darfur’s economy, for which trade

will be a crucial engine

• DDRA, in partnership with Tufts, tracking how trade has been impacted by the conflict and by other factors, through:• Ongoing market monitoring by DDRA, in 3 Darfur states. Soon to be

expanded to 5 Darfur states• Periodic in-depth studies: livestock, cash crops (groundnuts, sesame, gum

arabic, tombac and oranges), vegetables, and cereals

What are our methods?Methodology: designed in partnership with Tufts/ FIC:

• Weekly market monitoring by CBOs in 37 markets across 3 Darfur states:

• in North Darfur since early 2011 – 15 markets• in West Darfur since early 2012 – 12 markets• in Central Darfur since early 2013 – 10 markets

NB later in 2014, will cover South and East Darfur

• Collecting both quantitative data (eg prices, transport costs) and qualitative data (eg changing trade routes, sources of supply)

• Collective quarterly analysis workshops in each state, involving all CBO enumerators

• Production and dissemination of:• Quarterly headlines – one page, shortly after analysis workshops• Quarterly bulletins for each state

• Supplemented with one-off in-depth trade studies• Dissemination activities, at locality, state and federal level

Darfur Markets at a glance

Vegetable Market – Kutum, ND Cereal Market - Kerainik, WD

Unique features of the approach• Access to markets through CBOs, that is often difficult/

impossible for international agencies• Access to local knowledge through CBO enumerators• Relationship between DDRA and state-level authorities, which

enhances influencing opportunities

• Partnership between national NGO (DDRA) and Tufts University which provides technical advisory support and quality control, supported by international NGO (SOS Sahel International UK):• facilitates dissemination at all levels

• Building the capacity of DDRA and the CBOs is central to the approach, and key to building a cost-effective and sustainable monitoring system

Capacity-building of CBO enumerators

ND enumerators WD enumerators

Examples of our findings: the current situation• Cereal prices at a record high due to poor 2013/14 harvest – see

graph on next slide

• Impact of recent insecurity in North Darfur:• Millet prices rose by 40% in El Lait between February and May 2014• Major disruption to trade routes out of Saraf Omra, a major source

of supply of cereals to many towns in Darfur

• Dramatic increase in dried okra prices: prices in North Darfur 400 to 600% higher in May 2014 compared with June 2013

• Extreme price hikes in basic staples putting pressure on household food security

Impact of poor harvest (2013/14) on cereal prices in El Fasher•

Other examples of our findings: impact of insecurity in neighbouring countries on export trade in camels• Tracking the camel trade from North Darfur and the impact of

the Libya conflict:• Early 2011: slump in trade, then recovered• 2013: decline in trade with insecurity

Other examples of our findings: impact of wider conflict on the tombac trade

• Tombac economy in North Darfur affected by wider conflict in Sudan

How DRA market monitoring has been used• Active and effective information dissemination in El Fasher, El

Geneina and Zalingei for government programme managers and decision makers

• Examples of how the analysis has been used:• In 2012 to trigger a response to acute food insecurity

• By government: strategic grain reserve distribution in many locations in North Darfur

• By WFP: free food distribution in key food insecure locationsin North Darfur brought forward to May 2012 from June/ July 2012

• In the absence of government data collection, ‘unofficial’ use of DRA data at state level

Findings from in-depth livestock trade study: the impact of conflict

INCREASING RISK•Early on:

• looting of livestock and distress sales: livestock a liability• many livestock traders left the business: bankruptcy or switching to less

risky trade eg groundnut trade

•Shift in market activity from insecure secondary markets to more secure markets:

• eg Seraf Omra – now centre of camel trade in N Darfur

•Overall contraction in the livestock trade – of 40 to 50%?

•Deteriorating quality of livestock

How have trade routes and trekking ‘on the hoof’ changed?

BUT ALSO RESILIENCE•Indirect and circuitous trade routes replacing direct routes because of insecurity

• eg Geneina to Omdurman, used to take 45 to 60 days, can now take up to four months

•Reducing the number of animals moving in one herd to reduce risks

•Employing armed guards to protect the herd

•All adaptations have increased transport costs

In-depth trade studies (livestock, cash crops & cereals) reveal common trends during a decade of conflict

• Impact of urbanisation and high transport costs -> shift from long-distance trade to meeting demand within Darfur’s urban areas eg sheep trade, trade in groundnuts and groundnut oil

• High levels of taxation, levies and fees

• Deteriorating quality (eg livestock, groundnuts)

• Yet economic opportunities associated with shifting settlement pattern

Examples of economic opportunities related to cash crops: a new market for groundnut by-products

• Consequence of urbanisation:• Groundnut cake: for livestock and poultry fodder:

• rise in price in Nyala of 300% during last 10 years

• Groundnut leaves for fodder

• Groundnut shells: for poultry feed, in brick-making & as fuel

• rise in price in Nyala of 800% during last 10 years

Economic opportunities: livestock-related

• An emerging meat industry within Darfur:• a consequence of rapid urbanisation during the conflict years• growing demand for meat, rising prices to Khartoum levels

• BUT Darfur has only one abattoir, functioning intermittently in Nyala…

• Trade in hides & skins:• increased during the conflict years, esp to West Afrcia• rapidly rising prices in last 5 years

Economic opportunities: processing of fresh vegetables• Price difference for fresh tomatoes can be 1000% between

the production season and off-season, and 500% for onions, negatively affecting producers and consumers

• Seasonality of availability and price could be addressed through:• improvement of storage facilities (eg cold stores)• investment in agro-processing eg canning tomatoes, making paste, drying onions

Building bridges through trade• Examples of increased local cooperation to maintain

trade eg camels from Seraf Omra to Libya and to Egypt

• Surprisingly, thriving orange trade from Jebel Marra across conflict lines:

• trade agreements to maintain livelihood strategies

• Opportunities for peace- building?

Challenges and future of the projectChallenges•Dynamic and unpredictable nature of the conflict, impacts on the project as well as on markets•Expanding into new states: can take time•Capacity development is a long-term process: requires long-term commitment

Future plans and opportunities•In the long-term, to institutionalise the project within Darfur, to inform and support state-level planning•Continued involvement of local communities and local organisations: best chance for project sustainability•BUT needs international funding on an ongoing basis