Commuting Time and Traffic Costs in Brazilian Metropolitan Regions

Eduardo Lima Campos (EPGE/FGV e ENCE/IBGE)

Goals

i. Estimate commuting time in brazilian metropolitan areas

ii. Analyze the effect of some variables on commuting time

iii. Evaluate opportunity costs related to commuting time

iv. Estimate commuting time and traffic costs for 2014-2015

v. Forecast commuting time and traffic costs for 2016-2018

Model - Data

• Six metropolitan regions:

i. Rio de Janeiro

ii. São Paulo

iii. Recife

iv. Salvador

v. Belo Horizonte

vi. Porto Alegre

• Years: 2002 to 2013 (annual frequency)

Model – Equation and Variables

• Yit = Time spent on a home-work commute in minutes in region i and year t

• i = Fixed effect to the ith metropolitan region (ith RM specific effect)

• X1,it = Monthly per capita income in region i and year t (in R$ 1.000,00)

• X2,it = Urbanization level (in percentage)

• X3,it = Total of vehicles (for 1.000 residents)

• X4,it = Urban road network (in 1.000 km)

• it = random error (effects not captured by the model)

Model - Coefficient Estimates and Significance Tests

Coefficients Standard Errors P-Value

Per Capita Income 51,1034 21,1363 0,0223

Urbanization Level 0,3191 0,1458 0,0315

Vehicles/1.000 res. 7,8312 3,0613 0,0167

Main Results - Impacts of Variables (for Rio de Janeiro)

• For each 10.000 more vehicles on the road, it is expected an increase of 6,38 minutes in home to work commuting time.

• A 10% increase in urbanization level leads to an average increase of 2,87 minutes in home to work commuting time.

• A R$ 100,00 increase in per capita monthly income increases, on average, 5,11 minutes in commuting time.

Main Results - Commuting Times

Table 1 - Home to Work Commuting Time (in minutes), for 2014-2018, in Some Brazilian Metropolitan Areas

RJ SP RE SA BH PA

2014 50,7 46,1 41,1 39,9 37,6 31,2

2015 52,4 46,4 42,3 40,5 37,9 31,6

2016 54,0 46,7 43,5 40,9 38,2 32,0

2017 55,4 47,0 44,6 41,4 38,6 32,4

2018 56,8 47,3 45,6 41,8 38,8 32,7

Commuting Time by Metropolitan Area for 2002-2018 (full lines = calculated/dashed lines = forecasts)

Traffic Costs – How to Evaluate?

• Yit = estimative of commuting time, in minutes/day

• Wit = real average payment (main occupation, RM i)

The commuting time is monetized by assuming that all the lost time would be converted into work hours.

Main Results - Traffic Costs

Table 2 - Annual Per Capita Traffic Costs (Home to Work)

RJ SP RE SA BH PA

2014 3.200,01 2.709,60 1.705,80 1.662,20 1.988,24 1.739,49

2015 3.419,92 2.788,12 1.811,50 1.680,65 2.043,37 1.813,20

2016 3.644,60 2.851,24 1.909,36 1.677,73 2.084,43 1.890,51

2017 3.867,27 2.910,94 2.005,02 1.688,64 2.120,66 1.962,28

2018 4.075,88 2.969,14 2.096,38 1.697,84 2.157,64 2.029,25

Annual Per Capita Traffic Costs (Home to Work) (full lines = calculated/dashed lines = forecasts)

Conclusions

• The commuting time and traffic costs are high - and tend to increase - in the Brazilian metropolitan areas analyzed

• The Rio de Janeiro is the brazilian metropolitan area with higher estimated and projected commuting time and costs

• The costs estimated represent a high percentage of GDP for each area, which reaffirm the importance of government interventions in order to minimize urban mobility problems