Company LOGO

www.company.com

System Requirements ReviewAkshay Ashok, Nithin Kolencherry, Steve Skare,

Michael McPeake, Muhammad Azmi, Richard Wang, Mintae Kim, Dodiet Wiraatmaja, Nixon Lange

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Outline

• Opportunity Description and Mission • Market Forecast• Market Analysis• Concept of Operations• Quality Functional Deployment• Initial Sizing

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Opportunity Description

Create a supersonic transport aircraft that meets the following characteristics:

• Mach 1.6-1.8 Cruise Speed • 4000 nm Design range• 35-70 Passengers (Mixed Class)• 3 Pax-mi/lb Fuel Efficiency• Takeoff Field Length < 10000 ft

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Mission

A cost-effective, advanced, high-speed commercial air transport that connects major worldwide hubs

Key assumptions:• Supersonic flights over land will be allowed

(Overpressure < 0.3psf)• There will be a market for Supersonic Business Jets

and Transports in general• IOC in 2020• Manufacturing capabilities exist

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Customer Priorities

• Customer needs and System Benefits– Speed

• Supersonic travel

– Safety• Compliance with FAA/ICAO regulations• Acceptable boom signature

– Global Connectivity• Connect major worldwide hubs

– Affordability• Competitive Pricing

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Customers

• Primary Customer: Airlines– Singapore Airlines

• Ranked No. 1 in the world, Significant presence in Asia.

– United Arab Emirates• Strategically located in one of our hubs. A well known luxury airlines.

– Delta Airlines• Top US Airline, the only one that covers all 50 states. Strong presence in Asia

and Europe.

• Private Customers– A variant of our aircraft will be designed to suit specific customer

needs.

http://airtravel.about.com/od/basedinnorthamerica/tp/top10na.htmhttp://travel.msn.co.nz/article.aspx?id=378404

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Competition

• Small business Jets– Capable of achieving supersonic speed

• TU-444, Aerion SBJ, QSST, Sukhoi-Gulfstream S-21

• Boeing 737’s and Airbus 318’s Successor• In the future, supersonic aircraft will become

common• Big manufacturers might buy the technology from

elsewhere• May develop their own supersonic technologies

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

• Examined forecast by Airbus and Boeing

• Predict traffic flow and regional flow

Market Forecast

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

• Asia-Pacific dominates aircraft market followed by North America

• Low Cost Carrier growth in Asia and Europe

• Target potential aircraft customers

Market Forecast

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Market Forecast

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Markets of Interest

• Three regions of focus– Trans-Atlantic– Trans-continental– Inter-Asia

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Trans-Atlantic : Market

• US D.o.C. Data on overseas travel

• Focus on Trans-Atlantic Market– Europe is most popular

destination– 10.5% of business travel

to Europe

• Economic MissionEu

rope

Caribbea

n

South Ameri

ca

Centra

l Ameri

caAfri

ca

Middle Ea

stAsia

Oceania

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%Travelers Outbound from USA

BusinessLeisure

*Data from US Department of Commerce : Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Trans-Atlantic : Destination

• Hub-Spoke structure• Select London Heathrow

(U.K.) as gateway city• LCC’s network rest of

Europe

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Travelers to Europe

BusinessLeisure

*Data from US Department of Commerce : Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Trans-Atlantic : Market Penetration

Business Travelers

8% of Business Travelers Captured

1.75% of Leuisure Travelers Captured

Leuisure Travelers

Trans-Atlantic Market Capture

SST Market Penetration Model– Based on 2007 Household income– Market share vs. value of time saved– Value of Time Multiple (VTM)

measures value of each hour saved

0 50 100 150 200 250 3000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Market Share vs Cost per hour

Cost per hour saved ($/hr)

Mar

ket S

hare

Per

cent

age

(%)

Model presented in: Dubin, AP; AIAA-1978-1557

Business Travelers(VTM=1.74)

Leisure Travelers(VTM=1.1)

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Trans-Atlantic : Route details

• JFK - LHR– Flight time of 3.5 hrs, 2.5 Hours Saved– Maximum of 5 legs daily (1 hr turnaround)– JFK limits design runway length (8400 ft)

• Market capture– Airbus predicts 4% annual passenger growth

worldwide• ¾ % growth in high-speed market

– 60 passengers per leg– 15 first class seats, 45 coach class seats

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Trans-continental : Market

• Analyzed top domestic routes– Distance > 2000nm– Data was scaled by

factor of 10

• LAX-JFK and HNL-LAX top routes– HNL-LAX omitted from

considerationEW

R-LAX

IAD-LAX

JFK-LA

S

LAX-JF

K

PHL-LAX

SFO-JF

K

HNL-LAX

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Passenger Count

F/Y Ratio

City Pairs

Pass

enge

r Cou

nt (2

007-

2008

)

* Data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Trans-continental : City Pairs

• Hub-Spoke Structure– LAX and JFK as hubs– LCC’s provide

connections

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Trans-continental : Route details• LAX - JFK

– Flight time of 3 hrs (average); – 1 hr turnaround time– Maximum of 6 legs daily– JFK limits design runway length (8400 ft)

• Market capture– Similar annual growth of 4% with 0.75% in

supersonic market.– 1.70% of total trans-continental traffic

• Aggregate VTM of 1.1

– 60 passengers per leg– 15 first class seats, 45 coach class seats

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Inter-Asia : Market

Region RPK 2007 (billions)

RPK 2027 (billions)

RPK increase

North America–North America 1,016.60 1,749.50 2.80%Europe–Europe 630.6 1,258.80 3.50%China–China 209.5 1,156.00 8.90%Europe–North America 418.2 1,039.60 4.70%Southeast Asia–Southeast Asia 96.2 433.6 7.80%Africa–Europe 121.7 349.8 5.40%Europe–Southeast Asia 107.7 332.9 5.80%South America–South America 78.4 298.8 6.90%Northeast Asia–Southeast Asia 78.6 279 6.50%Europe–Middle East 104.6 274.6 4.90%

• Significant Inter-Asia travel predicted by Boeing and Airbus

• Dubai as Hub City– Financial Hub– Launch pad to Far

East Region• China an emerging

economic power *Top 10 Routes by Boeing

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Worldwide HubsDistances by Region

(nm) ASIA AMERICA EUROPEMIDDLE

EASTSOUTH AFRICA

NRT PEK SVO BOM SHA JFK LAX ORD SFO ANC HNL SEA LHR FRA DXB JNB

ASIA

Tokyo NRT 0 1155 4064 3670 993 5861 4737 5452 4453 2984 3318 4144 5191 5071 4316 7332Beijing PEK 0 3137 2574 580 5942 5432 5717 5138 3442 4398 4699 4414 4217 3161 6316

Moscow SVO 0 3138 3689 4051 5281 4318 5107 3778 6112 4528 1359 1096 2003 4935Bombay BOM 0 2714 6777 7568 6999 7305 5575 6971 6739 3899 3551 1041 3753Shanghai SHA 0 6426 5650 6138 5359 3754 4303 4984 4985 4777 3464 6340

AMERICA

New York JFK 0 2151 643 2247 2942 4330 2104 2999 3350 5951 6925L.A LAX 0 1516 293 2038 2221 829 4741 5045 7246 9024

Chicago ORD 0 1604 2473 3687 1495 3435 3774 6297 7568San Fran. SFO 0 1754 2084 590 4664 4952 7041 9170

Anchorage ANC 0 2413 1259 3901 4064 5484 8698Hawaii HNL 0 2326 6289 6474 7413 10365Seattle SEA 0 4171 4439 6452 8919

EUROPE London LHR 0 354 2972 4884Germany FRA 0 2619 4675

MIDDLE EAST Dubai DXB 0 2450

AFRICA South Africa JNB 0

AVERAGE Distance NRT PEK SVO BOM SHA JFK LAX ORD SFO ANC HNL SEA LHR FRA DXB JNB

3921 3770 3537 4517 4010 3919 3986 3820 3860 3410 4544 3605 3641 36544244.37

5 6335

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Worldwide HubsSizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Range Diagram

Los Angeles (LAX)

Copyright © 1996-2009, Karl L. Swartz. All rights reserved. All trademarks mentioned herein belong to their respective owners.

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Range Diagram

New York (JFK)

Copyright © 1996-2009, Karl L. Swartz. All rights reserved. All trademarks mentioned herein belong to their respective owners.

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Range Diagram

London (LHR)

Copyright © 1996-2009, Karl L. Swartz. All rights reserved. All trademarks mentioned herein belong to their respective owners.

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Range Diagram

Dubai (DXB)

Copyright © 1996-2009, Karl L. Swartz. All rights reserved. All trademarks mentioned herein belong to their respective owners.

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Range Diagram

Beijing (PEK)

Copyright © 1996-2009, Karl L. Swartz. All rights reserved. All trademarks mentioned herein belong to their respective owners.

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Design Mission

• 1• 0

• 3

• 2

• 4

• 6 • 10

• 7

• 9

• 8

• Taxi & takeoff

• 5

•Cl

imb

(100

00 ft

)

•

Seco

nd Segm

ent Clim

b

•

At best

rate of c

limb

• Cruise Climb 4000nm

• Loiter

• (25 min. max)

• Attempt to Land

• Divert 200 nm

• Loiter

• (25 min. max)

• Land

•Cl

imb

No range descent credit

Altitude restrictionfor traffic

4000 nm Ground Range500 nm – 100kt

Headwinds200nm IFR Reserves

Design Range: 4700 nm

W1/W0 0.970W2/W1 0.946W3/W2 0.642W4/W3 0.953W5/W4 0.995W6/W5 0.970W7/W6 0.994W8/W7 0.980W9/W8 0.953

W10/W9 0.995

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Viability• Development and Manufacturing costs

estimated from NASA Aircraft Airframe and Turbine Engine Cost Models

• $35 Billion for 200 aircraft (in 2020 $)– Cost per aircraft is $175 million– Selling price is projected to be $192.5 million (10% mark up)

http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/airframe.html, http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/ATECM.htmlLiebeck, R. Andrastek, Donald A. Chau, Johnny, Girvin, Raquel. Lyon, Roger. Advanced Subsonic Airplane Design & Economic Studies.

McDonald Douglas Aerospace Long Beach California. April 1995

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Viability for the airlines

• Purchase price of $192.5 million.• Depreciation value per plane after 15

years: $171 million– Residual value for 15 year use is 10%– $11.4 million per year

• Trans-Atlantic Mission– 5 legs per day– Market value depreciates by $6245/leg

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Typical aircraft economic missionFlight Cost JFK-LHRCockpit Crew 961.9 $4809.5Cabin Crew 239.55$/block hr $1197.75Landing Fee 1597.29$/block hr $7986.45Navigation Fee* 51.65$/block hr $258.25Fuel $144040.61 full 96027.07 Total $110,279 Maintenance JFK-LHR Labor MMH/FH 3.323462679 MMH/FC 2.686034416 AFLAB 15.14901946MMH/Trip Direct Labor Cost $378.7254866 Material MAT/FH 50.1896158 MAT/FC 133.1875213 AAMB $757.4509732 Total Airframe Cost $2238.25 Engine MMH/Trip $7.784589754 Material $/Trip $477.8349997 EAMB Total Engine Cost $1630.32 Overall Cost JFK-LHR $114,147.5933

• Direct Operating Costs (projected)

• DOC in 2020– $145,855.

http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/airframe.html, http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/ATECM.htmlLiebeck, R. Andrastek, Donald A. Chau, Johnny, Girvin, Raquel. Lyon, Roger. Advanced Subsonic Airplane Design & Economic Studies.

McDonald Douglas Aerospace Long Beach California. April 1995

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Aircraft Economic Mission

• As shown above, DOC is $145,855• Depreciation per flight is $6245• Total cost is $152,101 • Per passenger cost is $2535.92• To achieve a 5% profit, $2661 in 2020

($2161 in today’s dollar)

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

System Design RequirementsSizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

System Design RequirementsSizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

System Design Requirements

takeoff field length [ft]

landing field length [ft]

door height above ground [ft]

turnaround time at gate [min]

range [nmi]

number of passengers

cruise Mach number

cabin volume per pax [ft3/pax]

operating cost [$/ASM]

cruise altitude [ft]

cruise efficiency [lb fuel / pax mi]

sonic boom overpressure [lb/ft2]

cumulative certification noise [dB]

stall speed [kts]

second segment climb gradient [%]

0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140

Engineering characteristics (relative importance)

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

System Design RequirementsSizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Technologies for Consideration

• Modified aerodynamics to reduce sonic boom overpressure- Quiet Spike™

• Engine Technologies- Variable Cycle Turbofans- Modified Engine Geometry- Environmentally Friendly (Sound and Fuel Emissions)

• Materials- Composites- Adaptability (Climate)

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/improvingflight/supersonic_jousting.html

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Initial Sizing Process

• Created Database of Commercial and Military Aircraft

• Used Least – squares regression on database– Empty Weight Fraction– MTOW– AR– Wing Loading– Max mach number

• Iterated the sizing equation to find MTOW

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Aircraft Used

Commercial– Tu 144, 244, 444– Concorde– Boeing 2707-200sst– Lockheed L-2000– Sukoi/ GS s21-G– SAI – QSST– HSCT– Aerion

Military– Boeing B-1B– XB-70 Valkyrie– Tu 160, 22– F – 111D– SR -71

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Attributes ValuesW0 Design 244746.6 lb

We Design 107283.2 lb

Wf Design 123463.3 lb

Tsl Required 93003.7 lbf

Wing Area 2879.4 ft2 Design Range 4700 nmAR 2.1W0/S 85 lbf/ft2

Tsl/W0 0.38

Cruise Mach # 1.8Maximum Mach # 2.0SFC cruise 0.936 1/hrSupersonic (L/D)max 9.2

Supersonic (L/D)cruise 7.912

Subsonic (L/D)max 10.04

Subsonic (L/D)loiter 10.04

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

SizingMission Markets Con Ops QFD

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Next Steps

• Detailed Sizing• Engine Selection• Fuselage and Cabin Layout• Supersonic Aerodynamic Analysis• Structures and Materials Selection• Aircraft Dynamics and Stability

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Summary“Design a cost-effective, advanced, high-speed commercial

air transport that connects major worldwide hubs.”

- 2020 holds a huge potential market for SST’s- Major worldwide hubs are connected- Determined relative importance of engineering

characteristics using QFD- Key design parameters were determined

- Estimated number of pax : 60- Design Range : 4700 nmi- MTOW : 244746.6 lb

Company LOGO

www.company.com

Questions

Company LOGO

www.company.com

References• http://airtravel.about.com/od/basedinnorthamerica/tp/top10na.htm • http://travel.msn.co.nz/article.aspx?id=378404 • http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/ • http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html • Model presented in: Dubin, AP; AIAA-1978-1557 • http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/ • Copyright © 1996-2009, Karl L. Swartz. All rights reserved. All trademarks

mentioned herein belong to their respective owners. • http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/airframe.html, http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/ATECM.html • Liebeck, R. Andrastek, Donald A. Chau, Johnny, Girvin, Raquel. Lyon, Roger.

Advanced Subsonic Airplane Design & Economic Studies. McDonald Douglas Aerospace Long Beach California. April 1995

• http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/improvingflight/supersonic_jousting.html