Competing in a Chaotic Economy Todd Buchholz

www.toddbuchholz.com www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook@Rushbook

Competing in a Chaotic EconomyCompeting in a Chaotic EconomyTodd BuchholzTodd Buchholz

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www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbookwww.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook

Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger?Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger?

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Hyper-CompetitionHyper-Competition

SpeedSpeed ScissorsScissors

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www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbookwww.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook4

Age of AnxietyAge of Anxiety


New Silk RoutesNew Silk Routes

RANK 1999RANK 1999 20052005

SinopecSinopec 50 750 7

SabicSabic 32 1032 10

Formosa PlFormosa Pl 47 11 47 11

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Middle East Chemical Plantsquadruple 1990-2005

GCC $35b trade with AsiaGCC FTA deals with China, India, NZ


Pick Up a ClubPick Up a Club

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No “Skin in the Game”No “Skin in the Game”

““trust me” papertrust me” paper Avoid Basel – new Avoid Basel – new

paper after LTCMpaper after LTCM Avalanche of defaults, Avalanche of defaults,

downgrades, CDS, downgrades, CDS, mark-to-market, mark-to-market, pension exitspension exits

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Free Trade Backlash:Free Trade Backlash:

Colombia, Panama FTAColombia, Panama FTA Sovereign Wealth FearsSovereign Wealth Fears ““Buy America?”Buy America?” India v. Steel; Russia v. India v. Steel; Russia v.

Cars and Chickens; Cars and Chickens; Argentina v. auto parts; Argentina v. auto parts;

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Who’s This?Who’s This?

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A Miracle of the Market?

What Is Sustainable?

Are We All Greek?

Who’s Broke Now?

Who do we work for?

“For the next 30 years, we all work for the Germans”


The High Price of a Free The High Price of a Free Lunch? Lunch?

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Taking from Peter…



A.P. Giannini: Gladiator of A.P. Giannini: Gladiator of FinanceFinance

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Compete on Expertise and Compete on Expertise and ServiceService

__ ____ ____ __ __ ____ ____ __ ______ ______

__ ___________ _________ __ ______ _______ ______ _____ _____ _ __________ _____ _ __________

__ _____ _____ __ _____ _____ __ _______ _____

How many live in How many live in Arizona?Arizona?

Two languagesTwo languages Non-banker hoursNon-banker hours ““women’s women’s

department” 3 of first department” 3 of first 11 loans to women11 loans to women

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No Excuses!

(c)Todd G. Buchholz 2012 20


We Can Beat Our FOE’s

• Federal Reserve Hiked Rates Too Much

• OPEC Tightened the Noose

• Euro Fell Too Far


Back to the ’70s?Back to the ’70s?

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Is Inflation Baked in the Cake?

Any Job Hope?

Consumers Are Tired – of Not Spending

Real Estate?

Coming June 2012…

Men and Women in Black

Overreaching?


Does China Save Capitalism?Does China Save Capitalism?

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China Aging China Aging

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@Rushbook@Rushbook

The Race for IQ PointsThe Race for IQ Points1992-20021992-2002

StevedoresStevedores -17%-17% TimberTimber -32%-32% Farm Farm -20%-20% Sewing Sewing -50%-50% TypesettersTypesetters -62%-62%

Elect. EngineersElect. Engineers +28% +28% Med. ScientistsMed. Scientists +33% +33% ArchitectsArchitects +44% +44% Legal AssistantsLegal Assistants +66% +66% Fin. ServicesFin. Services +78% +78%

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Peak Oil or Peak People?Peak Oil or Peak People? ________ ________

___________ ________ ___________ ________ ____ _____ ____ _____

___________ ___________ __________ ________ __________ ________ ___ ___

Petroleum engineering students fall 90% since 1981

Agricultural scientists Agricultural scientists stagnant for 20 yearsstagnant for 20 years

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Competing in a Chaotic Economy Todd Buchholz

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