+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Competitiveness of Polish Economy Perspectives for Euro Adoption

Competitiveness of Polish Economy Perspectives for Euro Adoption

Date post: 04-Jan-2016
Category:
Upload: martin-blake
View: 34 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
Description:
Competitiveness of Polish Economy Perspectives for Euro Adoption. Magdalena Zając. Entry to the EU: 2004, May 1st Total area: 313 000 km ² Population: 38,6 mln Political system: Republic Currency: Zloty. Poland in numbers. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Popular Tags:
28
Competitiveness of Polish Economy Perspectives for Euro Adoption Magdalena Zając
Transcript
Page 1: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Competitiveness of Polish Economy

Perspectives for Euro Adoption

Magdalena Zając

Page 2: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Entry to the EU: Entry to the EU: 2004, May 1st2004, May 1st

Total area: Total area: 313 000 km313 000 km²²

Population: Population: 38,6 mln38,6 mln

Political system: Political system: RepublicRepublic

Currency: Currency: ZlotyZloty

Page 3: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Poland in numbers• Between 10 new EU Member States Poland is the largest country,• Poland is the first in terms of population, teritory and of potential

economic power,

• 38,6 mln people = 52% of EU-10 population,

• € 202 billions GDP = 45% GDP of EU-10• Polish GDP = 3,8% of the EU-25 GDP• Greates economy among EU-10

• Polish GDP per capita: € 5300 • EU-25 average € 21000

• If GDP per capita for EU-25 is 100%, for Poland it is only 46%

Page 4: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Country

GDP per capita in USD thous. by purchasing power parity

USA 37,6

UK 29,6

UE-15 28,7

France 28,7

Japan 28,4

Germany 28,0

UE-25 26,4

Czech Rep. 16,8

Hungary 15,7

Slovakia 14,5

Lithuania 12,5

POLAND 12,0

Latvia 11,5

Page 5: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 6: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

GDP growth in 2004

9,1

5,5 5,44,9

4,4 43,1 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,3

1,6 1,2

0123456789

10

Page 7: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Geographical structure of Polish export in 2004

79,8%

3,5%

5,5%

7,0%

2,7%

1,5%

EU

Other

Developing c.

Former SovietUnion

EFTA

CEFTA

Page 8: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Geographical structure of Polish import in 2004

68,5%

5,3%

13,4%

9,7%

2,5%

0,6%

EU

Other

Developing c.

Former SovietUnion

EFTA

CEFTA

Page 9: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Main Polish export partners (2005)

Main Polish import partners (2005)

1. Germany 28,2% 1. Germany 24,7%

2. France 6,2% 2. Russia 8,9%

3. Italy 6,1% 3. Italy 7,0%

4. UK 5,6% 4. France 6,0%

5. Czech Rep. 4,5% 5. China 5,4%

6. Russia 4,4% 6. Czech Rep. 3,6%

Page 10: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Main benefits of Poland accession to the EU (1)

• Higher rate of economic growth,

• Growth of investment,

• Elimination of the last barriers for exchange of goods,

• Developing specialization, economies of scale, reduction of unemployment,

Page 11: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Main benefits of Poland accession to the EU (2)

• Reduction of investment risk,

• Boost of FDI flows,

• Drop of prices,

• Better quality and wider range of available goods and services,

• Improvement of Polish infrastructure.

Page 12: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Main costs of Poland accession to the EU

• Paying the membership contribution (but the net advantage to Poland)

• Increase in bureaucracy

• Brain drain

• Reduction in some sectors or enterprises

• Reduction in the number of Polish companies, but increase in the size

Page 13: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

COMPETITIVENESS

• Following the international assesment of competitiveness in 2005 Poland occupied 51st position

• In the year 2004 60th position

• Change in position: + 9

COUNTRY POSITION Change 04-05

Finland 1 0

USA 2 0

Sweden 3 0

Germany 15 -2

Estonia 20 0

Slovenia 32 + 1

Cyprus 34 + 4

Malta 35 - 3

Czech Rep. 38 + 2

Hungary 39 0

Slovak Rep. 41 + 2

Lithuania 43 - 7

Latvia 44 0

Poland 51 + 9

Page 14: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

The advantages: • high economic growth,• inflation level, • costs of labour in industry, • expansion of Polish

products in international markets,

• technical advancement attractiveness for foreign investors,

• well educated young people.

The disadvantages: • quality of public institutions,

infrastructure, • instability of the public

finance system, • high unemployment, • low employment.

Page 15: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Foreign Direct Investments to Poland between the years 1993-2004

(in million USD)

Page 16: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

The accumulated value of FDI in Poland between the years 1993-2004

(in million USD)

Page 17: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 18: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment in Poland by country of origin

in mln USD (2004)

Country

Value of capital invested

Number of investors

TOTAL 84477,6

1 France 16026,1 101

2 The Netherlands 11454,2 126

3 USA 10163,7 118

4 Germany 10149,5 258

5 International 4648,7 14

6 UK 4337,2 56

7 Italy 4089,3 67

Page 19: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 20: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 21: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Maastricht convergence criteria• Planned or actual general government deficit should not exceed 3% of

GDP,

• Public debt should not be higher than 60% of GDP, • Inflation rate should not exceed by more than 1.5 percentage points

the average inflation of the three best EU performers, • The long-term interest rate should not exceed by more than 2

percentage points the average interest rate in the three best EU performers,

• Participation for a minimum period of two years in the ERM II. Over this

period the exchange rate of the domestic currency against the euro should be maintained within fluctuation bands not wider than +/-15% around a central parity.

Page 22: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Declared deadlines

ERM II EURO ZONE

Cyprus Since 2 May 2005 As soon as possible

Czech Rep. No declaration 2009-2010

Estonia Since 28 June 2004 As soon as possible

Lithuania Since 28 June 2004 2007

Latvia Since 2 May 2005 2008

Malta Since 2 May 2005 As soon as possible

Poland No declaration No declaration

Slovakia No later than 1st half of 2006 2009

Slovenia Since 28 June 2004 2007

Hungary No declaration 2010

Page 23: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 24: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 25: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 26: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption
Page 27: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Real perspective of euro adoption in Poland

• The years 2012 or 2013 seem to be most realistic for Poland’s participation in the euro zone,

• The most difficult criterion to be fulfilled is the level of general government deficit,

• Poland’s priority should be fulfilment of

Maastricht convergence criteria because these are a basis for a sound macroeconomic growth.

Page 28: Competitiveness  of Polish Economy Perspectives  for Euro Adoption

Thank you for your attention


Recommended