Complexity and U.S. National Preparedness

Stephen J. Krill Jr., CEM, PMP, CFCP

PhD student in Engineering Management with a focus in Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management, The George Washington University

13th Annual Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, June 7-10, 2010

Acknowledgements

Presentation adapted from a research paper prepared for Dr. Richard Sylves, Environmental Hazards Management (EMSE 334), Spring 2010

Faculty Advisor – Dr. Greg Shaw

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http://www.gwu.edu/~icdrm/

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Part I: What is Complexity Theory?

Complexity theory explains complex phenomenon when traditional methods do not

Integrates ideas derived from other fields, such as chaos theory, to examine systems as they are – and not by simplifying them

Recognizes that complex behavior emerges from a few simple rules and that all complex systems are networks of many interdependent parts which interact according to those rules

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BusinessDictionary.com

To understand complexity theory, consider complex systems

In a complex system numerous independent elements continuously interact and spontaneously organize and reorganize themselves into more and more elaborate structures over time

Within complex systems, relationships between elements are frequently non-linear – that is, they are unpredictable

Sand pile

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Ferreira

Characteristics of complex systems

Complex systems perpetually evolve through an “adaptive cycle” of growth, crisis, transformation, and renewal

Gunderson and Holling

So, what about chaos theory?

Chaos theory – some systems, such as weather, are ultimately unpredictable because of the effects of small-scale events that cannot be included in prediction equations

Lorenz’ butterfly effect

A little more about chaos theory..

Chaos theory – is also a board game

http://www.educationallearninggames.com/chaos-strategy-game.asp

Whither complexity?

Complexity as an analytical method allows us to better understand how systems are created, unfold and develop and are transformed

Complexity as an analytical tool allows us to understand the interactions between a disaster and its social, political, economic and environmental context

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Part II: How Does Complexity Theory Apply to Emergency

Management?

Disasters are complex events

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Helbing

History as a predictor of the future

When organizations prepare for a crisis, their preparations are based on experience and often follow routinized management approaches

But the crisis management approaches that worked yesterday may not be effective today – and may even have counter-effects tomorrow

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Complexity within international disaster response

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United Nations

What about predictability and control?

Because if events are random, we are not in control, and if we are in control of events, they are not random

There is a fundamental clash between the need to feel we are in control and our ability to recognize randomness

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The Drunkard’s Walk

While complexity theory leverages non-linearity, especially in the natural world…

… emergency managers use approximations to plan for different types of disasters

− Planning assumptions− Hazard substitutions

Mandated lists (e.g., National Planning Scenarios) do not completely account for all types of disasters, do not address emerging disasters and treat disaster as an event rather than a system

Emergency management is full of complexities, challenges, and interdependencies that influence preparedness and response

“Fighting the Last War” syndrome

“Fighting the Last War” syndrome

Absence of a common preparedness doctrineAbsence of a common preparedness doctrine

Readiness to respond within hours

Readiness to respond within hours

Collision of decision rights involving multiple players Collision of decision rights involving multiple players

Lack of integrated preparedness missions

Lack of integrated preparedness missions

Less emphasis on the unknown risksLess emphasis on the unknown risks

ComplexityFederalism – “Who is in charge?”

Federalism – “Who is in charge?”

1. Engaged partnership – leaders at all levels develop shared response goals and align capabilities so that no one is overwhelmed in times of crisis

2. Tiered response – manage incidents at the lowest possible jurisdictional level and provide support when needed

3. Scalable, flexible, and adaptable operational capabilities – as incidents change in size, scope, and complexity, adapt to meet changing requirements

4. Unity of effort through unified command – respects the chain of command while harnessing seamless coordination across jurisdictions in support of common objectives

5. Readiness to act – provide the best response possible

While U.S. national preparedness features aspects of complexity...

…it does not account for self-organization...

Through self-organization, systems develop a range of extremely efficient, relatively simple solutions for solving very complex problems

Characteristics− Engage the whole system− Keep expanding the circle− Create abundant information− Develop quality relationships− Support collaboration− Forget boundaries− Focus on creating sustainability

… which suggests a need for a further shift in our approach to preparedness

Traditional Approach Emerging Approach

Operate from a single perspective

Maximize objectives

Stay within organizational boundaries

Limit openness, trust, and collaboration

Mobilize around shared issue

Optimize system

Transcend traditional boundaries

Remain independent while working across sectors on common interests

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Part III: What Comes Next?

Complexity theory provides a different perspective on preparedness because it endorses flexibility and adaptability while traditional measures emphasize structure and hierarchy

Regardless of when or to what extent complexity theory is adapted by emergency management, there is a need for understanding the non-linear characteristics of emergencies and the concept of self-organization

Achieving self organization is core to complexity theory and a condition the U.S. national preparedness system should strive to achieve

Complex adaptive systems can supply the crucial conceptual “glue” to manage the process of self-organization

Maximizing the network of relationships to enhance preparedness within a system would promote self-organization

Identify and empower stakeholders

Be an initiatorEmbrace interdependenceAllow for ambiguityReward collaborationStrengthen social networks

Key Considerations

Conclusions

Complexity theory is metaphorically useful in that it offers lessons in how to think about emergency management systems

Complexity encourages us to consider preparedness in different terms and to use approaches that thrive within uncertainty and disorder

The system that can adapt best and most quickly in an environment characterized by unpredictability, uncertainty, and rapid change, will prevail

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“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”

− Albert Einstein

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